A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Development and implementation of the population Fisher information matrix for the evaluation of population pharmacokinetic designs.

In population pharmacokinetic studies, the precision of parameter estimates is dependent on the population design. Methods based on the Fisher information matrix have been developed and extended to population studies to evaluate and optimize designs. In this paper we propose simple programming tools to evaluate population pharmacokinetic designs. This involved the development of an expression for the Fisher information matrix for nonlinear mixed-effects models, including estimation of the variance of the residual error. We implemented this expression as a generic function for two software applications: S-PLUS and MATLAB. The evaluation of population designs based on two pharmacokinetic examples from the literature is shown to illustrate the efficiency and the simplicity of this theoretic approach. Although no optimization method of the design is provided, these functions can be used to select and compare population designs among a large set of possible designs, avoiding a lot of simulations.

Telemedicine and developing countries - successful implementation will require a shared approach

Telemedicine is often proposed as a solution to certain health-care problems in the developing world. There seems to be little published experience on which to make judgements. A literature search revealed 39 articles, of which only two related to any kind of direct clinical work; most of them were review articles or editorials. The majority of the work reported was educational in nature, and there has been little clinical experience. It seems probable that telemedicine can help with the education of health-care workers and patients; it seems likely that it could bring major benefits to the organization of health-care. Without proper trials, it will be impossible to determine the place of health-care in the developing world. Trials are the only way in which rational decisions can ultimately be reached regarding whether scarce resources should be devoted to telemedicine in developing countries, or whether they should be employed in more conventional health-care measures whose outcomes are known to be cost-effective.

Bayesian feedback versus Markovian feedback in a two-level atom

We compare two different approaches to the control of the dynamics of a continuously monitored open quantum system. The first is Markovian feedback, as introduced in quantum optics by Wiseman and Milburn [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 548 (1993)]. The second is feedback based on an estimate of the system state, developed recently by Doherty and Jacobs [Phys. Rev. A 60, 2700 (1999)]. Here we choose to call it, for brevity, Bayesian feedback. For systems with nonlinear dynamics, we expect these two methods of feedback control to give markedly different results. The simplest possible nonlinear system is a driven and damped two-level atom, so we choose this as our model system. The monitoring is taken to be homodyne detection of the atomic fluorescence, and the control is by modulating the driving. The aim of the feedback in both cases is to stabilize the internal state of the atom as close as possible to an arbitrarily chosen pure state, in the presence of inefficient detection and other forms of decoherence. Our results (obtained without recourse to stochastic simulations) prove that Bayesian feedback is never inferior, and is usually superior, to Markovian feedback. However, it would be far more difficult to implement than Markovian feedback and it loses its superiority when obvious simplifying approximations are made. It is thus not clear which form of feedback would be better in the face of inevitable experimental imperfections.

A real symmetric Lanczos subspace implementation of quantum scattering using boundary inhomogeneities

We present an efficient and robust method for calculating state-to-state reaction probabilities utilising the Lanczos algorithm for a real symmetric Hamiltonian. The method recasts the time-independent Artificial Boundary Inhomogeneity technique recently introduced by Jang and Light (J. Chem. Phys. 102 (1995) 3262) into a tridiagonal (Lanczos) representation. The calculation proceeds at the cost of a single Lanczos propagation for each boundary inhomogeneity function and yields all state-to-state probabilities (elastic, inelastic and reactive) over an arbitrary energy range. The method is applied to the collinear H + H-2 reaction and the results demonstrate it is accurate and efficient in comparison with previous calculations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.