Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provade a very Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that interferences can be performed in time linear in the number of nodes if there is a single observed node. Because our proof is construtive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynominal-time algorithm for SQPn. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

SNA--a toolbox for the stoichiometric analysis of metabolic networks

BACKGROUND: Despite recent algorithmic and conceptual progress, the stoichiometric network analysis of large metabolic models remains a computationally challenging problem. RESULTS: SNA is a interactive, high performance toolbox for analysing the possible steady state behaviour of metabolic networks by computing the generating and elementary vectors of their flux and conversions cones. It also supports analysing the steady states by linear programming. The toolbox is implemented mainly in Mathematica and returns numerically exact results. It is available under an open source license from: http://bioinformatics.org/project/?group_id=546. CONCLUSION: Thanks to its performance and modular design, SNA is demonstrably useful in analysing genome scale metabolic networks. Further, the integration into Mathematica provides a very flexible environment for the subsequent analysis and interpretation of the results.

Learning an L1-regularized Gaussian Bayesian Network in the Equivalence Class Space

Learning the structure of a graphical model from data is a common task in a wide range of practical applications. In this paper, we focus on Gaussian Bayesian networks, i.e., on continuous data and directed acyclic graphs with a joint probability density of all variables given by a Gaussian. We propose to work in an equivalence class search space, specifically using the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm. This, combined with regularization techniques to guide the structure search, can learn sparse networks close to the one that generated the data. We provide results on some synthetic networks and on modeling the gene network of the two biological pathways regulating the biosynthesis of isoprenoids for the Arabidopsis thaliana plant

Desarrollo de un entorno inteligente en el contexto del hogar digital

A lo largo de las últimas décadas el desarrollo de la tecnología en muy distintas áreas ha sido vertiginoso. Su propagación a todos los aspectos de nuestro día a día parece casi inevitable y la electrónica de consumo ha invadido nuestros hogares. No obstante, parece que la domótica no ha alcanzado el grado de integración que cabía esperar hace apenas una década. Es cierto que los dispositivos autónomos y con un cierto grado de inteligencia están abriéndose paso de manera independiente, pero el hogar digital, como sistema capaz de abarcar y automatizar grandes conjuntos de elementos de una vivienda (gestión energética, seguridad, bienestar, etc.) no ha conseguido extenderse al hogar medio. Esta falta de integración no se debe a la ausencia de tecnología, ni mucho menos, y numerosos son los estudios y proyectos surgidos en esta dirección. Sin embargo, no ha sido hasta hace unos pocos años que las instituciones y grandes compañías han comenzado a prestar verdadero interés en este campo. Parece que estamos a punto de experimentar un nuevo cambio en nuestra forma de vida, concretamente en la manera en la que interactuamos con nuestro hogar y las comodidades e información que este nos puede proporcionar. En esa corriente se desarrolla este Proyecto Fin de Grado, con el objetivo de aportar un nuevo enfoque a la manera de integrar los diferentes dispositivos del hogar digital con la inteligencia artificial y, lo que es más importante, al modo en el que el usuario interactúa con su vivienda. Más concretamente, se pretende desarrollar un sistema capaz de tomar decisiones acordes al contexto y a las preferencias del usuario. A través de la utilización de diferentes tecnologías se dotará al hogar digital de cierta autonomía a la hora de decidir qué acciones debe llevar a cabo sobre los dispositivos que contiene, todo ello mediante la interpretación de órdenes procedentes del usuario (expresadas de manera coloquial) y el estudio del contexto que envuelve al instante de ejecución. Para la interacción entre el usuario y el hogar digital se desarrollará una aplicación móvil mediante la cual podrá expresar (de manera conversacional) las órdenes que quiera dar al sistema, el cual intervendrá en la conversación y llevará a cabo las acciones oportunas. Para todo ello, el sistema hará principalmente uso de ontologías, análisis semántico, redes bayesianas, UPnP y Android. Se combinará información procedente del usuario, de los sensores y de fuentes externas para determinar, a través de las citadas tecnologías, cuál es la operación que debe realizarse para satisfacer las necesidades del usuario. En definitiva, el objetivo final de este proyecto es diseñar e implementar un sistema innovador que se salga de la corriente actual de interacción mediante botones, menús y formularios a los que estamos tan acostumbrados, y que permita al usuario, en cierto modo, hablar con su vivienda y expresarle sus necesidades, haciendo a la tecnología un poco más transparente y cercana y aproximándonos un poco más a ese concepto de hogar inteligente que imaginábamos a finales del siglo XX. ABSTRACT. Over the last decades the development of technology in very different areas has happened incredibly fast. Its propagation to all aspects of our daily activities seems to be inevitable and the electronic devices have invaded our homes. Nevertheless, home automation has not reached the integration point that it was supposed to just a few decades ago. It is true that some autonomic and relatively intelligent devices are emerging, but the digital home as a system able to control a large set of elements from a house (energy management, security, welfare, etc.) is not present yet in the average home. That lack of integration is not due to the absence of technology and, in fact, there are a lot of investigations and projects focused on this field. However, the institutions and big companies have not shown enough interest in home automation until just a few years ago. It seems that, finally, we are about to experiment another change in our lifestyle and how we interact with our home and the information and facilities it can provide. This Final Degree Project is developed as part of this trend, with the goal of providing a new approach to the way the system could integrate the home devices with the artificial intelligence and, mainly, to the way the user interacts with his house. More specifically, this project aims to develop a system able to make decisions, taking into account the context and the user preferences. Through the use of several technologies and approaches, the system will be able to decide which actions it should perform based on the order interpretation (expressed colloquially) and the context analysis. A mobile application will be developed to enable the user-home interaction. The user will be able to express his orders colloquially though out a conversational mode, and the system will also participate in the conversation, performing the required actions. For providing all this features, the system will mainly use ontologies, semantic analysis, Bayesian networks, UPnP and Android. Information from the user, the sensors and external sources will be combined to determine, through the use of these technologies, which is the operation that the system should perform to meet the needs of the user. In short, the final goal of this project is to design and implement an innovative system, away from the current trend of buttons, menus and forms. In a way, the user will be able to talk to his home and express his needs, experiencing a technology closer to the people and getting a little closer to that concept of digital home that we imagined in the late twentieth century.

Multi-dimensional classification of GABAergic interneurons with Bayesian network-modeled label uncertainty

Abstract Interneuron classification is an important and long-debated topic in neuroscience. A recent study provided a data set of digitally reconstructed interneurons classified by 42 leading neuroscientists according to a pragmatic classification scheme composed of five categorical variables, namely, of the interneuron type and four features of axonal morphology. From this data set we now learned a model which can classify interneurons, on the basis of their axonal morphometric parameters, into these five descriptive variables simultaneously. Because of differences in opinion among the neuroscientists, especially regarding neuronal type, for many interneurons we lacked a unique, agreed-upon classification, which we could use to guide model learning. Instead, we guided model learning with a probability distribution over the neuronal type and the axonal features, obtained, for each interneuron, from the neuroscientists’ classification choices. We conveniently encoded such probability distributions with Bayesian networks, calling them label Bayesian networks (LBNs), and developed a method to predict them. This method predicts an LBN by forming a probabilistic consensus among the LBNs of the interneurons most similar to the one being classified. We used 18 axonal morphometric parameters as predictor variables, 13 of which we introduce in this paper as quantitative counterparts to the categorical axonal features. We were able to accurately predict interneuronal LBNs. Furthermore, when extracting crisp (i.e., non-probabilistic) predictions from the predicted LBNs, our method outperformed related work on interneuron classification. Our results indicate that our method is adequate for multi-dimensional classification of interneurons with probabilistic labels. Moreover, the introduced morphometric parameters are good predictors of interneuron type and the four features of axonal morphology and thus may serve as objective counterparts to the subjective, categorical axonal features.

Multi-dimensional classification of GABAergic interneurons with Bayesian network-modeled label uncertainty

Interneuron classification is an important and long-debated topic in neuroscience. A recent study provided a data set of digitally reconstructed interneurons classified by 42 leading neuroscientists according to a pragmatic classification scheme composed of five categorical variables, namely, of the interneuron type and four features of axonal morphology. From this data set we now learned a model which can classify interneurons, on the basis of their axonal morphometric parameters, into these five descriptive variables simultaneously. Because of differences in opinion among the neuroscientists, especially regarding neuronal type, for many interneurons we lacked a unique, agreed-upon classification, which we could use to guide model learning. Instead, we guided model learning with a probability distribution over the neuronal type and the axonal features, obtained, for each interneuron, from the neuroscientists’ classification choices. We conveniently encoded such probability distributions with Bayesian networks, calling them label Bayesian networks (LBNs), and developed a method to predict them. This method predicts an LBN by forming a probabilistic consensus among the LBNs of the interneurons most similar to the one being classified. We used 18 axonal morphometric parameters as predictor variables, 13 of which we introduce in this paper as quantitative counterparts to the categorical axonal features. We were able to accurately predict interneuronal LBNs. Furthermore, when extracting crisp (i.e., non-probabilistic) predictions from the predicted LBNs, our method outperformed related work on interneuron classification. Our results indicate that our method is adequate for multi-dimensional classification of interneurons with probabilistic labels. Moreover, the introduced morphometric parameters are good predictors of interneuron type and the four features of axonal morphology and thus may serve as objective counterparts to the subjective, categorical axonal features.

Application of Bayesian approach in geotechnical engineering

En esta Tesis Doctoral se emplean y desarrollan Métodos Bayesianos para su aplicación en análisis geotécnicos habituales, con un énfasis particular en (i) la valoración y selección de modelos geotécnicos basados en correlaciones empíricas; en (ii) el desarrollo de predicciones acerca de los resultados esperados en modelos geotécnicos complejos. Se llevan a cabo diferentes aplicaciones a problemas geotécnicos, como es el caso de: (1) En el caso de rocas intactas, se presenta un método Bayesiano para la evaluación de modelos que permiten estimar el módulo de Young a partir de la resistencia a compresión simple (UCS). La metodología desarrollada suministra estimaciones de las incertidumbres de los parámetros y predicciones y es capaz de diferenciar entre las diferentes fuentes de error. Se desarrollan modelos "específicos de roca" para los tipos de roca más comunes y se muestra cómo se pueden "actualizar" esos modelos "iniciales" para incorporar, cuando se encuentra disponible, la nueva información específica del proyecto, reduciendo las incertidumbres del modelo y mejorando sus capacidades predictivas. (2) Para macizos rocosos, se presenta una metodología, fundamentada en un criterio de selección de modelos, que permite determinar el modelo más apropiado, entre un conjunto de candidatos, para estimar el módulo de deformación de un macizo rocoso a partir de un conjunto de datos observados. Una vez que se ha seleccionado el modelo más apropiado, se emplea un método Bayesiano para obtener distribuciones predictivas de los módulos de deformación de macizos rocosos y para actualizarlos con la nueva información específica del proyecto. Este método Bayesiano de actualización puede reducir significativamente la incertidumbre asociada a la predicción, y por lo tanto, afectar las estimaciones que se hagan de la probabilidad de fallo, lo cual es de un interés significativo para los diseños de mecánica de rocas basados en fiabilidad. (3) En las primeras etapas de los diseños de mecánica de rocas, la información acerca de los parámetros geomecánicos y geométricos, las tensiones in-situ o los parámetros de sostenimiento, es, a menudo, escasa o incompleta. Esto plantea dificultades para aplicar las correlaciones empíricas tradicionales que no pueden trabajar con información incompleta para realizar predicciones. Por lo tanto, se propone la utilización de una Red Bayesiana para trabajar con información incompleta y, en particular, se desarrolla un clasificador Naïve Bayes para predecir la probabilidad de ocurrencia de grandes deformaciones (squeezing) en un túnel a partir de cinco parámetros de entrada habitualmente disponibles, al menos parcialmente, en la etapa de diseño. This dissertation employs and develops Bayesian methods to be used in typical geotechnical analyses, with a particular emphasis on (i) the assessment and selection of geotechnical models based on empirical correlations; on (ii) the development of probabilistic predictions of outcomes expected for complex geotechnical models. Examples of application to geotechnical problems are developed, as follows: (1) For intact rocks, we present a Bayesian framework for model assessment to estimate the Young’s moduli based on their UCS. Our approach provides uncertainty estimates of parameters and predictions, and can differentiate among the sources of error. We develop ‘rock-specific’ models for common rock types, and illustrate that such ‘initial’ models can be ‘updated’ to incorporate new project-specific information as it becomes available, reducing model uncertainties and improving their predictive capabilities. (2) For rock masses, we present an approach, based on model selection criteria to select the most appropriate model, among a set of candidate models, to estimate the deformation modulus of a rock mass, given a set of observed data. Once the most appropriate model is selected, a Bayesian framework is employed to develop predictive distributions of the deformation moduli of rock masses, and to update them with new project-specific data. Such Bayesian updating approach can significantly reduce the associated predictive uncertainty, and therefore, affect our computed estimates of probability of failure, which is of significant interest to reliability-based rock engineering design. (3) In the preliminary design stage of rock engineering, the information about geomechanical and geometrical parameters, in situ stress or support parameters is often scarce or incomplete. This poses difficulties in applying traditional empirical correlations that cannot deal with incomplete data to make predictions. Therefore, we propose the use of Bayesian Networks to deal with incomplete data and, in particular, a Naïve Bayes classifier is developed to predict the probability of occurrence of tunnel squeezing based on five input parameters that are commonly available, at least partially, at design stages.

Bayesian network modeling of the consensus between experts: an application to neuron classification

Neuronal morphology is hugely variable across brain regions and species, and their classification strategies are a matter of intense debate in neuroscience. GABAergic cortical interneurons have been a challenge because it is difficult to find a set of morphological properties which clearly define neuronal types. A group of 48 neuroscience experts around the world were asked to classify a set of 320 cortical GABAergic interneurons according to the main features of their three-dimensional morphological reconstructions. A methodology for building a model which captures the opinions of all the experts was proposed. First, one Bayesian network was learned for each expert, and we proposed an algorithm for clustering Bayesian networks corresponding to experts with similar behaviors. Then, a Bayesian network which represents the opinions of each group of experts was induced. Finally, a consensus Bayesian multinet which models the opinions of the whole group of experts was built. A thorough analysis of the consensus model identified different behaviors between the experts when classifying the interneurons in the experiment. A set of characterizing morphological traits for the neuronal types was defined by performing inference in the Bayesian multinet. These findings were used to validate the model and to gain some insights into neuron morphology.

MINLP Optimization Algorithm for the Synthesis of Heat and Work Exchange Networks

This paper introduces a new optimization model for the simultaneous synthesis of heat and work exchange networks. The work integration is performed in the work exchange network (WEN), while the heat integration is carried out in the heat exchanger network (HEN). In the WEN synthesis, streams at high-pressure (HP) and low-pressure (LP) are subjected to pressure manipulation stages, via turbines and compressors running on common shafts and stand-alone equipment. The model allows the use of several units of single-shaft-turbine-compressor (SSTC), as well as helper motors and generators to respond to any shortage and/or excess of energy, respectively, in the SSTC axes. The heat integration of the streams occurs in the HEN between each WEN stage. Thus, as the inlet and outlet streams temperatures in the HEN are dependent of the WEN design, they must be considered as optimization variables. The proposed multi-stage superstructure is formulated in mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP), in order to minimize the total annualized cost composed by capital and operational expenses. A case study is conducted to verify the accuracy of the proposed approach. The results indicate that the heat integration between the WEN stages is essential to enhance the work integration, and to reduce the total cost of process due the need of a smaller amount of hot and cold utilities.

Management of social networks in the educational process

The research developed in this work consists in proposing a set of techniques for management of social networks and their integration into the educational process. The proposals made are based on assumptions that have been proven with simple examples in a real scenario of university teaching. The results show that social networks have more capacity to spread information than educational web platforms. Moreover, educational social networks are developed in a context of freedom of expression intrinsically linked to Internet freedom. In that context, users can write opinions or comments which are not liked by the staff of schools. However, this feature can be exploited to enrich the educational process and improve the quality of their achievement. The network has covered needs and created new ones. So, the figure of the Community Manager is proposed as agent in educational context for monitoring network and aims to channel the opinions and to provide a rapid response to an academic problem.

Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Finding structures in information networks using the affinity network

This thesis proposes a novel graphical model for inference called the Affinity Network,which displays the closeness between pairs of variables and is an alternative to Bayesian Networks and Dependency Networks. The Affinity Network shares some similarities with Bayesian Networks and Dependency Networks but avoids their heuristic and stochastic graph construction algorithms by using a message passing scheme. A comparison with the above two instances of graphical models is given for sparse discrete and continuous medical data and data taken from the UCI machine learning repository. The experimental study reveals that the Affinity Network graphs tend to be more accurate on the basis of an exhaustive search with the small datasets. Moreover, the graph construction algorithm is faster than the other two methods with huge datasets. The Affinity Network is also applied to data produced by a synchronised system. A detailed analysis and numerical investigation into this dynamical system is provided and it is shown that the Affinity Network can be used to characterise its emergent behaviour even in the presence of noise.

Dynamic decision networks for decision-making in self-adaptive systems:a case study

Bayesian decision theory is increasingly applied to support decision-making processes under environmental variability and uncertainty. Researchers from application areas like psychology and biomedicine have applied these techniques successfully. However, in the area of software engineering and speci?cally in the area of self-adaptive systems (SASs), little progress has been made in the application of Bayesian decision theory. We believe that techniques based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) are useful for systems that dynamically adapt themselves at runtime to a changing environment, which is usually uncertain. In this paper, we discuss the case for the use of BNs, speci?cally Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs), to support the decision-making of self-adaptive systems. We present how such a probabilistic model can be used to support the decision making in SASs and justify its applicability. We have applied our DDN-based approach to the case of an adaptive remote data mirroring system. We discuss results, implications and potential bene?ts of the DDN to enhance the development and operation of self-adaptive systems, by providing mechanisms to cope with uncertainty and automatically make the best decision.

Alpha helical trans-membrane proteins:enhanced prediction using a Bayesian approach

Membrane proteins, which constitute approximately 20% of most genomes, are poorly tractable targets for experimental structure determination, thus analysis by prediction and modelling makes an important contribution to their on-going study. Membrane proteins form two main classes: alpha helical and beta barrel trans-membrane proteins. By using a method based on Bayesian Networks, which provides a flexible and powerful framework for statistical inference, we addressed alpha-helical topology prediction. This method has accuracies of 77.4% for prokaryotic proteins and 61.4% for eukaryotic proteins. The method described here represents an important advance in the computational determination of membrane protein topology and offers a useful, and complementary, tool for the analysis of membrane proteins for a range of applications.