Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Large multi-gene phylogenetic trees of the grasses (Poaceae): progress towards complete tribal and generic level sampling.

In this paper we included a very broad representation of grass family diversity (84% of tribes and 42% of genera). Phylogenetic inference was based on three plastid DNA regions rbcL, matK and trnL-F, using maximum parsimony and Bayesian methods. Our results resolved most of the subfamily relationships within the major clades (BEP and PACCMAD), which had previously been unclear, such as, among others the: (i) BEP and PACCMAD sister relationship, (ii) composition of clades and the sister-relationship of Ehrhartoideae and Bambusoideae + Pooideae, (iii) paraphyly of tribe Bambuseae, (iv) position of Gynerium as sister to Panicoideae, (v) phylogenetic position of Micrairoideae. With the presence of a relatively large amount of missing data, we were able to increase taxon sampling substantially in our analyses from 107 to 295 taxa. However, bootstrap support and to a lesser extent Bayesian inference posterior probabilities were generally lower in analyses involving missing data than those not including them. We produced a fully resolved phylogenetic summary tree for the grass family at subfamily level and indicated the most likely relationships of all included tribes in our analysis.

Laboratory indicators for monitoring HIV disease

Immunological monitoring of disease progression following HIV infection and seroconversion illness, latency and AIDS, not only helps in the basic investigation of the natural history of the viral infection in man, but also can assist in prognosis and treatment of AIDS-defining illnesses. However, outside clinical trials, these tests should be selected and used in clinical practice only if they are validated as relevant and effective. The absolute CD4+ T-helper lymphocyte count, measured by flow cytometry, has emerged as the best available investigation, but needs care in sampling due to diurnal and circadian rhythms, effects of age, pregnancy, therapy, intercurrent infections and technique. Sampling should provide a baseline and trends - monthly intervals initially, then quarterly in uncomplicated cases. Thresholds may be given for counts (e.g. 200/µl) below which prophylaxis against pneumocystis pneumonia should be administered, and repeating persistently low counts (e.g. below 50/µl) is seldom helpful in practice. Serum levels of beta-2 microglobulin, neopterin and immunoglobulins rarely add information. Physicians and laboratories should have testing guidelines based on clinical audit of best practice, based in turn on scientific understanding of the immunological processes involved.

Consommation d'alcool à risque dans un collectif de patients de la Policlinique médicale universitaire de Lausanne [High risk alcohol consumption in a sample of patients of the Lausanne University Medical Polyclinic].

OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: This study indicates the prevalence, the characteristics, and the screening methods of patients with at risk alcohol drinking at the University Medical Clinic of Lausanne. RESULTS: The results reported demonstrate that one patient out of six is a drinker at risk without criteria for alcohol-dependance. The questionnaire AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) with a cut-off of five points seems to be the best screening test for at risk alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of at risk drinking in this study, combined with scientific evidence of the efficiency of brief interventions in changing drinking habits, emphasises the importance of alcohol screening for all patients attending outpatient medical settings.

Interpolation and sampling in small Bergman spaces

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

An audit of diagnostic reference levels in interventional cardiology and radiology: are there differences between academic and non-academic centres?

A wide variation in patient exposure has been observed in interventional radiology and cardiology. The purpose of this study was to investigate the patient dose from fluoroscopy-guided procedures performed in non-academic centres when compared with academic centres. Four procedures (coronary angiography, percutaneous coronary intervention, angiography of the lower limbs and percutaneous transluminal angioplasty of the lower limbs) were evaluated. Data on the dose-area product, fluoroscopy time and number of images for 1000 procedures were obtained from 23 non-academic centres and compared with data from 5 academic centres. No differences were found for cardiology procedures performed in non-academic centres versus academic ones. However, significantly lower doses were delivered to patients for procedures of the lower limbs when they were performed in non-academic centres. This may be due to more complex procedures performed in the academic centres. Comparison between the centres showed a great variation in the patient dose for these lower limb procedures.

Spin-labeling coronary MR angiography with steady-state free precession and radial k-space sampling: initial results in healthy volunteers.

The purpose of this study was to prospectively compare free-breathing navigator-gated cardiac-triggered three-dimensional steady-state free precession (SSFP) spin-labeling coronary magnetic resonance (MR) angiography performed by using Cartesian k-space sampling with that performed by using radial k-space sampling. A new dedicated placement of the two-dimensional selective labeling pulse and an individually adjusted labeling delay time approved by the institutional review board were used. In 14 volunteers (eight men, six women; mean age, 28.8 years) who gave informed consent, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), vessel sharpness, vessel length, and subjective image quality were investigated. Differences between groups were analyzed with nonparametric tests (Wilcoxon, Pearson chi2). Radial imaging, as compared with Cartesian imaging, resulted in a significant reduction in the severity of motion artifacts, as well as an increase in SNR (26.9 vs 12.0, P < .05) in the coronary arteries and CNR (23.1 vs 8.8, P < .05) between the coronary arteries and the myocardium. A tendency toward improved vessel sharpness and vessel length was also found with radial imaging. Radial SSFP imaging is a promising technique for spin-labeling coronary MR angiography.

VFM Audit of Statutory Residential Homes for Older People - March 2007 (PDF 1314 KB)

VFM Audit of Statutory Residential Homes for Older People - Final Report (March 2007)

Audit of Intermediate Care Executive Summary (PDF 491 KB)

Audit of Intermediate Care Executive Summary

Audit of Maternity Services Executive Summary( PDF 915 KB)

Audit of Maternity Services Executive Summary

Audit of Intermediate Care (PDF 4422 KB)

Audit of Intermediate Care Final Report - October 2006