Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

Assessing the structure of learning outcomes from counselling using the SOLO taxonomy: an exploratory study

Thirty-five clients who had received counselling completed a letter to a friend describing in as much detail as possible what they had learned from counselling. The participants' written responses were analysed and classified using the Structure of Learning Outcomes (SOLO) taxonomy. The results suggested that an expanded SOLO offers a promising and exciting way to view the outcomes of counselling within a learning framework. If the SOLO taxonomy is found to be stable in subsequent research, and clients are easily able to be classified using the taxonomy, then this approach may have implications for the process of counselling. To maximise the learning outcomes, counsellors could use strategies and techniques to enhance their clients' learning.

Micro-structure differences in kaolinite suspensions

SEM observations of the aqueous suspensions of kaolinite from Birdwood (South Australia) and Georgia (USA) show noticeable differences in number of physical behaviour which has been explained by different microstructure constitution.. Birdwood kaolinite dispersion gels are observed at very low solid loadings in comparison with Georgia KGa-1 kaolinite dispersions which remain fluid at higher solids loading. To explain this behaviour, the specific particle interactions of Birdwood kaolinite, different from interaction in Georgia kaolinite have been proposed. These interactions may be brought about by the presence of nano-bubbles on clay crystal edges and may force clay particles to aggregate by bubble coalescence. This explains the predominance of stair step edge-edge like (EE) contacts in suspension of Birdwood kaolinite. Such EE linked particles build long strings that form a spacious cell structure. Hydrocarbon contamination of colloidal kaolinite particles and low aspect ratio are discussed as possible explanations of this unusual behaviour of Birdwood kaolinite. In Georgia KGa-1 kaolinite dispersions instead of EE contact between platelets displayed in Birdwood kaolinite, most particles have edge to face (EF) contacts building a cardhouse structure. Such an arrangement is much less voluminous in comparison with the Birdwood kaolinite cellular honeycomb structure observed previously in smectite aqueous suspensions. Such structural characteristics of KGa-1 kaolinite particles enable higher solid volume fractions pulps to form before significantly networked gel consistency is attained.

A framework for predicting the residual load carrying capacity of concrete structures exposed to aggressive environments

Reinforced concrete structures are susceptible to a variety of deterioration mechanisms due to creep and shrinkage, alkali-silica reaction (ASR), carbonation, and corrosion of the reinforcement. The deterioration problems can affect the integrity and load carrying capacity of the structure. Substantial research has been dedicated to these various mechanisms aiming to identify the causes, reactions, accelerants, retardants and consequences. This has improved our understanding of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures. However, the strengthening of reinforced concrete structures for durability has to date been mainly undertaken after expert assessment of field data followed by the development of a scheme to both terminate continuing degradation, by separating the structure from the environment, and strengthening the structure. The process does not include any significant consideration of the residual load-bearing capacity of the structure and the highly variable nature of estimates of such remaining capacity. Development of performance curves for deteriorating bridge structures has not been attempted due to the difficulty in developing a model when the input parameters have an extremely large variability. This paper presents a framework developed for an asset management system which assesses residual capacity and identifies the most appropriate rehabilitation method for a given reinforced concrete structure exposed to aggressive environments. In developing the framework, several industry consultation sessions have been conducted to identify input data required, research methodology and output knowledge base. Capturing expert opinion in a useable knowledge base requires development of a rule based formulation, which can subsequently be used to model the reliability of the performance curve of a reinforced concrete structure exposed to a given environment.

Building infrastructure asset management : Australian practices

Generally, major public funding is invested in civil infrastructure assets. The efficiency and comfort level of expected and actual living standards is largely dependant on the management strategies of these assets. Buildings are one of the major & vital assets, which need to be maintained primarily to ensure their functionality by effective & efficient delivery of services and to optimise economic benefits. In Australia, billions of dollars are spent annually managing and maintaining built assets. These assets make up the social and economic infrastructure, which facilitate the essential services to public and business. Buildings are one of the prime & fundamental assets, which need to be managed effectively and efficiently to ensure that related services are delivered economically and sustainably

Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Comparative study of guidelines and practices for building infrastructure asset management

This paper presents a comparative study of primarily Australian (and limited international) practices and guidelines on Buildings Asset Management (BAM). The objective of this study was to identify potential gaps in current practices and potential areas of research for further improvement. The paper starts with an overview of BAM. Later sections cover current BAM practices and guidelines across different states of Australia; give a limited overview of international practices and concludes with the authors’ observations.

Road Asset Management Investment

Australias civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. To effectively manage road infrastructures, road agencies firstly need to optimise the expenditure for data collection whilst not jeopardising the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates can be accurately calculated. Finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must be reasonably reliable.

Building an ontology and process architecture for engineering asset management

Historically, asset management focused primarily on the reliability and maintainability of assets; organisations have since then accepted the notion that a much larger array of processes govern the life and use of an asset. With this, asset management’s new paradigm seeks a holistic, multi-disciplinary approach to the management of physical assets. A growing number of organisations now seek to develop integrated asset management frameworks and bodies of knowledge. This research seeks to complement existing outputs of the mentioned organisations through the development of an asset management ontology. Ontologies define a common vocabulary for both researchers and practitioners who need to share information in a chosen domain. A by-product of ontology development is the realisation of a process architecture, of which there is also no evidence in published literature. To develop the ontology and subsequent asset management process architecture, a standard knowledge-engineering methodology is followed. This involves text analysis, definition and classification of terms and visualisation through an appropriate tool (in this case, the Protégé application was used). The result of this research is the first attempt at developing an asset management ontology and process architecture.

The Children's Depression Scale : assessment of factor structure with data from a normal population

A study investigated the reliability and construct validity of the Children's Depression Scale. The revised subscales were shown to have strong construct and face validity and high reliability.

Unusual hydrate stabilization in the two-dimensional layered structure of quinacrinium bis(2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate) tetrahydrate, a proton-transfer compound of the drug quinacrine

The crystal structure of the hydrated proton-transfer compound of the drug quinacrine [rac-N'-(6-chloro-2-methoxyacridin-9-yl)-N,N-diethylpentane-1,4-diamine] with 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid, C23H32ClN3O2+ . 2(C8H3Cl2O4-).4H2O (I), has been determined at 200 K. The four labile water molecules of solvation form discrete ...O--H...O--H... hydrogen-bonded chains parallel to the quinacrine side chain, the two N--H groups of which act as hydrogen-bond donors for two of the water acceptor molecules. The other water molecules, as well as the acridinium H atom, also form hydrogen bonds with the two anion species and extend the structure into two-dimensional sheets. Between these sheets there are also weak cation--anion and anion--anion pi-pi aromatic ring interactions. This structure represents only the third example of a simple quinacrine derivative for which structural data are available but differs from the other two in that it is unstable in the X-ray beam due to efflorescence, probably associated with the destruction of the unusual four-membered water chain structures.