Assessing continental-scale risks for generalist and specialist pollinating bee species under climate change

Increased risks of extinction to populations of animals and plants under changing climate have now been demonstrated for many taxa. This study assesses the extinction risks to species within an important genus of pollinating bees (Colletes: Apidae) by estimating the expected changes in the area and isolation of suitable habitat under predicted climatic condition for 2050. Suitable habitat was defined on the basis of the presence of known forage plants as well as climatic suitability. To investigate whether ecological specialisation was linked to extinction risk we compared three species which were generalist pollen foragers on several plant families with three species which specialised on pollen from a single plant species. Both specialist and generalist species showed an increased risk of extinction with shifting climate, and this was particularly high for the most specialised species (Colletes anchusae and C. wolfi). The forage generalist C. impunctatus, which is associated with Boreo-Alpine environments, is potentially threatened through significant reduction in available climatic niche space. Including the distribution of the principal or sole pollen forage plant, when modelling the distribution of monolectic or narrowly oligolectic species, did not improve the predictive accuracy of our models as the plant species were considerably more widespread than the specialised bees associated with them.

Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets.

Assessing the business risk of technology obsolescence through enterprise modelling

The problem of technology obsolescence in information intensive businesses (software and hardware no longer being supported and replaced by improved and different solutions) and a cost constrained market can severely increase costs and operational, and ultimately reputation risk. Although many businesses recognise technological obsolescence, the pervasive nature of technology often means they have little information to identify the risk and location of pending obsolescence and little money to apply to the solution. This paper presents a low cost structured method to identify obsolete software and the risk of their obsolescence where the structure of a business and its supporting IT resources can be captured, modelled, analysed and the risk to the business of technology obsolescence identified to enable remedial action using qualified obsolescence information. The technique is based on a structured modelling approach using enterprise architecture models and a heatmap algorithm to highlight high risk obsolescent elements. The method has been tested and applied in practice in two consulting studies carried out by Capgemini involving three UK police forces. However the generic technique could be applied to any industry based on plans to improve it using ontology framework methods. This paper contains details of enterprise architecture meta-models and related modelling.

A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth’s surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth’s surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.

Vulnerability to risk among small farmers in Tajikistan: results of a 2011 survey

Tajikistan is judged to be highly vulnerable to risk, including food insecurity risks and climate change risks. By some vulnerability measures it is the most vulnerable among all 28 countries in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region – ECA (World Bank 2009). The rural population, with its relatively high incidence of poverty, is particularly vulnerable. The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) in Tajikistan (2011) provided an opportunity to conduct a farm-level survey with the objective of assessing various dimensions of rural population’s vulnerability to risk and their perception of constraints to farming operations and livelihoods. The survey should be accordingly referred to as the 2011 PPCR survey. The rural population in Tajikistan is highly agrarian, with about 50% of family income deriving from agriculture (see Figure 4.1; also LSMS 2007 – own calculations). Tajikistan’s agriculture basically consists of two groups of producers: small household plots – the successors of Soviet “private agriculture” – and dehkan (or “peasant”) farms – new family farming structures that began to be created under relevant legislation passed after 1992 (Lerman and Sedik, 2008). The household plots manage 20% of arable land and produce 65% of gross agricultural output (GAO). Dehkan farms manage 65% of arable land and produce close to 30% of GAO. The remaining 15% of arable land is held in agricultural enterprises – the rapidly shrinking sector of corporate farms that succeeded the Soviet kolkhozes and sovkhozes and today produces less than 10% of GAO (TajStat 2011) The survey conducted in May 2011 focused on dehkan farms, as budgetary constraints precluded the inclusion of household plots. A total of 142 dehkan farms were surveyed in face-to-face interviews. They were sampled from 17 districts across all four regions – Sughd, Khatlon, RRP, and GBAO. The districts were selected so as to represent different agro-climatic zones, different vulnerability zones (based on the World Bank (2011) vulnerability assessment), and different food-insecurity zones (based on WFP/IPC assessments). Within each district, 3-4 jamoats were chosen at random and 2-3 farms were selected in each jamoat from lists provided by jamoat administration so as to maximize the variability by farm characteristics. The sample design by region/district is presented in Table A, which also shows the agro-climatic zone and the food security phase for each district. The sample districts are superimposed on a map of food security phases based on IPC April 2011.

Value of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF score) in assessing risk in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions in the 'All-Comers' LEADERS trial

Background— The age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score (age/left ventricular ejection fraction+1 if creatinine >2.0 mg/dL) has been established as an effective predictor of clinical outcomes in patients undergoing elective coronary artery bypass surgery; however, its utility in “all-comer” patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention is yet unexplored. Methods and Results— The ACEF score was calculated for 1208 of the 1707 patients enrolled in the LEADERS trial. Post hoc analysis was performed by stratifying clinical outcomes at the 1-year follow-up according to ACEF score tertiles: ACEFlow ≤1.0225, 1.0225< ACEFmid ≤1.277, and ACEFhigh >1.277. At 1-year follow-up, there was a significantly lower number of patients with major adverse cardiac event–free survival in the highest tertile of the ACEF score (ACEFlow=92.1%, ACEFmid=89.5%, and ACEFhigh=86.1%; P=0.0218). Cardiac death was less frequent in ACEFlow than in ACEFmid and ACEFhigh (0.7% vs 2.2% vs 4.5%; hazard ratio=2.22, P=0.002) patients. Rates of myocardial infarction were significantly higher in patients with a high ACEF score (6.7% for ACEFhigh vs 5.2% for ACEFmid and 2.5% for ACEFlow; hazard ratio=1.6, P=0.006). Clinically driven target-vessel revascularization also tended to be higher in the ACEFhigh group, but the difference among the 3 groups did not reach statistical significance. The rate of composite definite, possible, and probable stent thrombosis was also higher in the ACEFhigh group (ACEFlow=1.2%, ACEFmid=3.5%, and ACEFhigh=6.2%; hazard ratio=2.04, P<0.001). Conclusions— ACEF score may be a simple way to stratify risk of events in patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention with respect to mortality and risk of myocardial infarction.

Targeting Families to Receive Intensive Family Preservation Services: Assessing the Use of Imminent Risk of Placement as a Service Criterion

The process for targeting families to receive intensive family preservation services was examined for 71 child welfare agencies in the United States. The focus of this exploratory/descriptive study was the concept of imminent risk of placement as a criterion for providing services. Findings indicated that agencies had difficulty defining imminent risk and were unable to successfully restrict services to imminent risk cases. Several factors besides imminent risk were identified in relation to the targeting process.

Climatic conditions as a risk factor in canine gastric dilatation-volvulus

Canine acute gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of multifactorial origin. The risk of developing GDV is influenced by a variety of factors, including breed, age, gender, temperament, diet and management. A relationship between seasonal variations and the frequency of GDV has been previously documented although no association was found with any specific climatic event. Variables in weather conditions within a defined geographic region were investigated in a retrospective study of 287 client-owned dogs diagnosed with GDV between 1992 and 1999. Monthly incidences were evaluated and differences in atmospheric temperature, humidity and pressure between days in which GDV cases were observed and days in which no case was presented were examined. Although temperature was significantly associated with the occurrence of GDV, the difference in temperatures between days with and days without GDV cases was so small that it is unlikely to be of clinical relevance. Moreover, no significant association was found between GDV occurrence and atmospheric pressure or humidity, and a seasonal variation in GDV incidence was not observed.

Assessing perceptions of environmental risk and environmental justice and their impacts on neighborhood attachment in a predominately Hispanic community

This study examines and relates concepts from environmental risk perception and environmental justice and focuses on the perception of environmental problems, their consequent health risks and their impact on neighborhood attachment in a predominately Hispanic community along the U.S.-Mexico border. The findings indicate that the perception of environmental problems in the immediate area varies by problem and demographic subgroup. Ethnicity and income have the highest number of statistically significant associations across ten environmental problems. This result lies in the fact that Hispanics in El Paso County and those with low annual incomes live in neighborhoods that are faced with more severe environmental problems. Thus the findings lend support to the environmental justice claim that the poor and minorities bear the brunt of environmental degradation. ^ The findings also provide evidence that public perception of health risks from an environmental problem is influenced by the perceived severity of an environmental problem in the immediate area. Those who believe the problem is serious on a local level are the ones who are most likely to believe that they could become ill or injured from that problem and that the illness/injury will be serious. ^ The findings of this study also indicate that the young, Hispanics, those who perceive considerable environmental problems in their neighborhood, those who believe that their neighborhood has more environmental problems than others, and those who are angry about those problems are most likely to want to move from their neighborhood. ^ Efforts need to be made to enact policies and programs designed to reduce the environmental hazards in disadvantaged Hispanic communities along the U.S.-Mexico border. Future environmental education campaigns need to complement community-based projects with the media. Programs that involve and empower the community, particularly the youth, in improving the neighborhood could provide a sense of control and pride within their community in solving these problems. These neighborhood improvement efforts could also lead to the development and strengthening of social ties within the community, as well as enhanced community cohesiveness in tackling these problems. ^

Assessing the Environmental Protection Agency's guidelines for cumulative risk assessment: Are they suitable for state agencies and EPA regional offices?

In the field of health risk analysis, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) is a necessary, although undeniably more complex approach to understanding the mixture of stressors, whether chemical or psychosocial, that exist in our environment, in all the pathways through which the chemicals may evolve—air, soil, or water, as well as the accumulation of these exposures over time. Related, or attached to the developing awareness of scientists understanding this mix of combined health effects is the burgeoning of the environmental justice movement, in which educated community advocates and even affected community members have called attention to evidence of a higher pollution burden in minority and/or lower SES communities. The intention of this paper is to 1) examine the development and understanding of CRA, primarily by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; 2) to assess several states agencies and some EPA regional offices' interpretation of CRA, again based primarily on EPA guidance, and 3) to analyze how CRA might be refined in its implementation—giving some cues as to how the EPA may more effectively interact with communities interested in CRA.^

Assessing earthquake hazards and reducing risk in the Pacific Northwest /

Mode of access: Internet.

Assessing the quality of risk factor survey data: lessons from the WHO MONICA Project

Background and purpose Survey data quality is a combination of the representativeness of the sample, the accuracy and precision of measurements, data processing and management with several subcomponents in each. The purpose of this paper is to show how, in the final risk factor surveys of the WHO MONICA Project, information on data quality were obtained, quantified, and used in the analysis. Methods and results In the WHO MONICA (Multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project, the information about the data quality components was documented in retrospective quality assessment reports. On the basis of the documented information and the survey data, the quality of each data component was assessed and summarized using quality scores. The quality scores were used in sensitivity testing of the results both by excluding populations with low quality scores and by weighting the data by its quality scores. Conclusions Detailed documentation of all survey procedures with standardized protocols, training, and quality control are steps towards optimizing data quality. Quantifying data quality is a further step. Methods used in the WHO MONICA Project could be adopted to improve quality in other health surveys.