Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Think of the children! The decline of the big day out and mega-festivals

What does the future look like for music festivals in Australia? This article examines the decline of the large festivals that have grown to dominate the scene in Australia in the last twenty years, and the rise of small, specialized festivals that offer a boutique experience.

The day that changed Grantham

"'Within two minutes it went from being no water out in the street to being waist deep inside the shop.' When Queensland went under water in January this year the tiny town of Grantham suffered the greatest loss of life: 12 people died. The locals clung to fences, floated on top of cars and supported each other to survive the unexpected and sudden wall of muddy water and debris that inundated their town. You'll hear tales of fear, bravery and loss in this moving radio feature."

Day in the Lab : Urban Informatics Research Lab, Queensland University of Technology

The Urban Informatics Research Lab brings together a group of people who focus their research on interdisciplinary topics at the intersection of social, spatial, and technical research domains—that is, people, place, and technology. Those topics are spread across the breadth of urban life—its contemporary issues and its needs, as well as the design opportunities that we have as individuals, groups, communities, and as a whole society. The lab’s current research areas include urban planning and design, civic innovation, mobility and transportation, education and connected learning, environmental sustainability, and food and urban agriculture. The common denominator of the lab’s approach is user-centered design research directed toward understanding, conceptualizing, developing, and evaluating sociotechnical practices as well as the opportunities afforded by innovative digital technology in urban environments.

Prevalence of malnutrition, obesity and nutritional risk of Australian paediatric inpatients: A national one-day snapshot

Aim Low prevalence rates of malnutrition at 2.5% to 4% have previously been reported in two tertiary paediatric Australian hospitals. The current study is the first to measure the prevalence of malnutrition, obesity and nutritional risk of paediatric inpatients in multiple hospitals throughout Australia. Methods Malnutrition, obesity and nutritional risk prevalence were investigated in 832 and 570 paediatric inpatients, respectively, in eight tertiary paediatric hospitals and eight regional hospitals across Australia on a single day. Malnutrition and obesity prevalence was determined using z-scores and body mass index (BMI) percentiles. High nutritional risk was determined as a Paediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score of 2 or more. Results The prevalence rates of malnourished, wasted, stunted, overweight and obese paediatric patients were 15%, 13.8%, 11.9%, 8.8% and 9.9%, respectively. Patients who identified as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander were more likely to have lower height-for-age z-scores (P < 0.01); however, BMI and weight-for-age z-scores were not significantly different. Children who were younger, from regional hospitals or with a primary diagnosis of cardiac disease or cystic fibrosis had significantly lower anthropometric z-scores (P = 0.05). Forty-four per cent of patients were identified as at high nutritional risk and requiring further nutritional assessment. Conclusions The prevalence of malnutrition and nutritional risk of Australian paediatric inpatients on a given day was much higher when compared with the healthy population. In contrast, the proportion of overweight and obese patients was less.

Differential effects of refractive blur on day and night-time driving performance

Purpose To investigate the effect of different levels of refractive blur on real-world driving performance measured under day and nighttime conditions. Methods Participants included 12 visually normal, young adults (mean age = 25.8 ± 5.2 years) who drove an instrumented research vehicle around a 4 km closed road circuit with three different levels of binocular spherical refractive blur (+0.50 diopter sphere [DS], +1.00 DS, +2.00 DS) compared with a baseline condition. The subjects wore optimal spherocylinder correction and the additional blur lenses were mounted in modified full-field goggles; the order of testing of the blur conditions was randomized. Driving performance was assessed in two different sessions under day and nighttime conditions and included measures of road signs recognized, hazard detection and avoidance, gap detection, lane-keeping, sign recognition distance, speed, and time to complete the course. Results Refractive blur and time of day had significant effects on driving performance (P < 0.05), where increasing blur and nighttime driving reduced performance on all driving tasks except gap judgment and lane keeping. There was also a significant interaction between blur and time of day (P < 0.05), such that the effects of blur were exacerbated under nighttime driving conditions; performance differences were evident even for +0.50 DS blur relative to baseline for some measures. Conclusions The effects of blur were greatest under nighttime conditions, even for levels of binocular refractive blur as low as +0.50 DS. These results emphasize the importance of accurate and up-to-date refractive correction of even low levels of refractive error when driving at night.

Visual rehabilitation in low-moderate keratoconus : intracorneal ring segment implantation followed by same-day topography-guided photorefractive keratectomy and collagen cross linking

AIM: To present the results of same-day topography-guided photorefractive keratectomy (TG-PRK) and corneal collagen crosslinking (CXL) after previous intrastromal corneal ring segment (ISCR) implantation for keratoconus. METHODS: An experimental clinical study on twenty-one eyes of 19 patients aged, 27.1±6.6 years (range: 19 – 43 years), with low to moderate keratoconus who were selected to undergo customized TG-PRK immediately followed by same-day CXL, 9 months after ISCR implantation in a university ophthalmology clinic. Refraction, uncorrected (UDVA) and corrected distance visual acuities (CDVA), keratometry (K) values, central corneal thickness (CCT) and coma were assessed 3 months after TG/PRK and CXL. RESULTS: After TG-PRK/CXL: the mean UDVA (logMAR) improved significantly from 0.66±0.41 to 0.20±0.25 (P<0.05); K flat value decreased from: 48.44±3.66 D to 43.71±1.95 D; K steep value decreased from 45.61±2.40 D to 41.56±2.05D; K average also decreased from 42.42±2.07 D to 47.00±2.66 D (P<0.05 for all). The mean sphere and cylinder decreased significantly post-surgery from, -3.10±2.99 D to -0.11±0.93 D and from, -3.68±1.53 to -1.11±0.75D respectively, while the CDVA, CCT and coma showed no significant changes. Compared to post-ISCR, significant reductions (P ˂ 0.05 or all) in all K-values, sphere and cylinder were observed after TG-PRK/CXL. CONCLUSION: Same-day combined topography-guided PRK and corneal crosslinking following placement of ICRS is a safe and potentially effective option in treating low-moderate keratoconus. It significantly improved all visual acuity, reduced keratometry, sphere and astigmatism, but caused no change in central corneal thickness and coma.

Examining how projections about the future of society are related to present-day climate change action

Global climate change will affect all domains of person-environment relations. Tackling climate change will require social change that can be motivated by people’s imaginings of the future of their society where such social change has occurred. We use the “collective futures” framework to examine whether beliefs about the future of society are related to present-day intentions to take climate change action. Participants from two Brazilian samples imagined their society in 2050 where climate change was mitigated and then rated how this future society would differ from Brazilian society today in terms of societal-level dysfunction and development and personal-level traits and values. To the extent that participants believed preventing climate change would result in societal development and more competence traits, they were more willing to engage in environmental citizenship activities. Individual differences in future time perspective also impacted environmental citizenship intention. Societal development and consideration of future consequences seem to be distinct routes by which future thinking influence climate change action.

Coachable moments: Identifying factors that influence managers to take advantage of coachable moments in day-to-day management

The purpose of this study was to identify the factors that influence managers to take advantage of coachable moments in day-to-day management. Interviews with ten managers found that time, skills, and relationships were key factors considered by managers, but that these were considered within the context of potential “risk” to the manager. This paper elaborates on these findings and makes recommendations for further research into how managers consciously assess the risks associated with coaching, in order to decide whether to take advantage of an informal coaching opportunity.

Small firm training: Just meeting the day-to-day needs of the business

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore what the attitudes of small firm owner-managers are to developing the skills of their key resources and then examine how these and other factors affect owner-managers’ preferences for training these employees. Design/methodology/approach This study of training in small road transport firms in West Australia is cast in light of the literature on human resource management in small firms underpinned by insights drawn using the resource based view of the firm. Small firms (less than 20 people) dominate this industry, while the increasing freight task, and extreme distances between West Australian ports, towns and mines highlight this sectors’ importance. Survey results from 39 small road transport firms and interviews with nine owner-managers are analysed. Findings Legislative, regulatory and licensing requirements were shown to be a key determinant of skills development. Employers ensured that basic standards for employee certification and qualification were met, as the penalty for not doing so would be too high. Regulations drove the need for certain types of training – licenses, fatigue management, occupational health and safety, handling dangerous goods, the Maritime Security Identification Card card, forklift license, mine site inductions – while owner-managers knew where to get the training their staff needed. Although regulation appeared most visible in prescribing what happened in relation to training for drivers, the relevance of owner-managers’ attitudes could not be ignored, nor could conditions in the firms external environment as this shaped how these requirements were met. Research limitations/implications The RBV is useful in showing how skill development enabled similarity in skills across firms, while the attitudes owner-managers and economic and social conditions meant what happened in firms around skill development varied. The importance of small firm owner-managers’ attitudes are clearly highlighted and shown to influence organizational decisions and choices around training, but these were not independent of the regulatory framework and the economic and social conditions within which the firm operated. The small firms in this study did engage workers in formal training when necessary but it was put in the context of the idiosyncratic approach of the owner-manager and the day-to-day needs of the firm. “Training” was essentially about ensuring certain types of skills were held by employees and then passing on knowledge to ensure the behavior of employees was consistent with the owner-manager’s vision for the firm in its current environment. Originality/value Ways industry and government can encourage training activity that goes beyond the day-to-day firm needs are suggested.

Incidence and predictors of lower limb split-skin graft failure and primary closure dehiscence in day-case surgical patients

BACKGROUND After general surgery, the lower limb experiences some of the highest complication rates. However, little is known about contributing factors to surgical site failure in the lower limb dermatological surgery population. OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence of lower limb surgical site failure and to explore the predictors that contribute to surgical site failure. METHODS A prospective observational study design was used to collect data from 73 participants, from July 2010, to March 2012. Incidence was determined as a percentage of surgical site failure from the total population. Predictors were determined by the use of a binary logistic regression model. RESULTS The surgical site failure rate was 53.4%. Split-skin grafting had a higher failure rate than primary closures, 66% versus 26.1%. Predictors of lower limb surgical site failure were identified as increasing age (p = .04) and the presence of postoperative hematoma (p = .01), with all patients who developed surgical site infection experiencing surgical site failure (p = .01). CONCLUSION Findings from this study confirmed that the lower limb is at high risk of surgical site failure. Two predictors of surgical site failure from this cohort were determined. However, to understand this phenomenon and make recommendations to assist and reduce surgical site complications, further research in this field is required.

Price and trade: World no tobacco day 2015

This special issue of Tobacco Control for World No Tobacco Day is focused on the theme of Price and Trade.

Wastewater analysis of Census day samples to investigate per capita input of organophosphorus flame retardants and plasticizers into wastewater

The use of organophosphate esters (PFRs) as flame retardants and plasticizers has increased due to the ban of some brominated flame retardants. There is however some concern regarding the toxicity, particularly carcinogenicity and neurotoxicity, of some of the PFRs. In this study we applied wastewater analysis to assess use of PFRs by the Australian population. Influent samples were collected from eleven wastewater treatment plants (STPs) in Australia on Census day and analysed for PFRs using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Per capita mass loads of PFRs were calculated using the accurate Census head counts. The results indicate that tris(2-butoxyethyl) phosphate (TBOEP) has the highest per capita input into wastewater followed by tris(2-chloroisopropyl) phosphate (TCIPP), tris(isobutyl) phosphate (TIBP), tris(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP) and tris(1,3-dichloroisopropyl) phosphate (TDCIPP). Similar PFR profiles were observed across the Australian STPs and a comparison with European and U.S. STPs indicated similar PFR concentrations. We estimate that approximately 2.1 mg person−1 day−1 of PFRs are input into Australian wastewater which equates to 16 tonnes per annum.