Aerosols in Amazonia: Natural Biogenic Particles and Large Scale Biomass Burning Impacts.

The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a long term (20 years) research effort aimed at the understanding of the functioning of the Amazonian ecosystem. In particular, the strong biosphere-atmosphere interaction is a key component looking at the exchange processes between vegetation and the atmosphere, focusing on aerosol particles. Two aerosol components are the most visible: The natural biogenic emissions of aerosols and VOCs, and the biomass burning emissions. A large effort was done to characterize natural biogenic aerosols that showed detailed organic characterization and optical properties. The biomass burning component in Amazonia is important in term of aerosol and trace gases emissions, with deforestation rates decreasing, from 27,000 Km2 in 2004 to about 5,000 Km2 in 2011. Biomass burning emissions in Amazonia increases concentrations of aerosol particles, CO, ozone and other species, and also change the surface radiation balance in a significant way. Long term monitoring of aerosols and trace gases were performed in two sites: a background site in Central Amazonia, 55 Km North of Manaus (called ZF2 ecological reservation) and a monitoring station in Porto Velho, Rondonia state, a site heavily impacted by biomass burning smoke. Several instruments were operated to measured aerosol size distribution, optical properties (absorption and scattering at several wavelengths), composition of organic (OC/EC) and inorganic components among other measurements. AERONET and MODIS measurements from 5 long term sites show a large year-to year variability due to climatic and socio-economic issues. Aerosol optical depths of more than 4 at 550nm was observed frequently over biomass burning areas. In the pristine Amazonian atmosphere, aerosol scattering coefficients ranged between 1 and 200 Mm-1 at 450 nm, while absorption ranged between 1 and 20 Mm-1 at 637 nm. A strong seasonal behavior was observed, with greater aerosol loadings during the dry season (Jul-Nov) as compared to the wet season (Dec-Jun). During the wet season in Manaus, aerosol scattering (450 nm) and absorption (637 nm) coefficients averaged, respectively, 14 and 0.9 Mm-1. Angstrom exponents for scattering were lower during the wet season (1.6) in comparison to the dry season (1.9), which is consistent with the shift from biomass burning aerosols, predominant in the fine mode, to biogenic aerosols, predominant in the coarse mode. Single scattering albedo, calculated at 637 nm, did not show a significant seasonal variation, averaging 0.86. In Porto Velho, even in the wet season it was possible to observe an impact from anthropogenic aerosol. Black Carbon was measured at a high 20 ug/m³ in the dry season, showing strong aerosol absorption. This work presents a general description of the aerosol optical properties in Amazonia, both during the Amazonian wet and dry seasons.

Global modeling of pollutant transport and deposition from anthropogenic emission hot spots on global scale

Urban centers significantly contribute to anthropogenic air pollution, although they cover only a minor fraction of the Earth's land surface. Since the worldwide degree of urbanization is steadily increasing, the anthropogenic contribution to air pollution from urban centers is expected to become more substantial in future air quality assessments. The main objective of this thesis was to obtain a more profound insight in the dispersion and the deposition of aerosol particles from 46 individual major population centers (MPCs) as well as the regional and global influence on the atmospheric distribution of several aerosol types. For the first time, this was assessed in one model framework, for which the global model EMAC was applied with different representations of aerosol particles. First, in an approach with passive tracers and a setup in which the results depend only on the source location and the size and the solubility of the tracers, several metrics and a regional climate classification were used to quantify the major outflow pathways, both vertically and horizontally, and to compare the balance between pollution export away from and pollution build-up around the source points. Then in a more comprehensive approach, the anthropogenic emissions of key trace species were changed at the MPC locations to determine the cumulative impact of the MPC emissions on the atmospheric aerosol burdens of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfate, and nitrate. Ten different mono-modal passive aerosol tracers were continuously released at the same constant rate at each emission point. The results clearly showed that on average about five times more mass is advected quasi-horizontally at low levels than exported into the upper troposphere. The strength of the low-level export is mainly determined by the location of the source, while the vertical transport is mainly governed by the lifting potential and the solubility of the tracers. Similar to insoluble gas phase tracers, the low-level export of aerosol tracers is strongest at middle and high latitudes, while the regions of strongest vertical export differ between aerosol (temperate winter dry) and gas phase (tropics) tracers. The emitted mass fraction that is kept around MPCs is largest in regions where aerosol tracers have short lifetimes; this mass is also critical for assessing the impact on humans. However, the number of people who live in a strongly polluted region around urban centers depends more on the population density than on the size of the area which is affected by strong air pollution. Another major result was that fine aerosol particles (diameters smaller than 2.5 micrometer) from MPCs undergo substantial long-range transport, with about half of the emitted mass being deposited beyond 1000 km away from the source. In contrast to this diluted remote deposition, there are areas around the MPCs which experience high deposition rates, especially in regions which are frequently affected by heavy precipitation or are situated in poorly ventilated locations. Moreover, most MPC aerosol emissions are removed over land surfaces. In particular, forests experience more deposition from MPC pollutants than other land ecosystems. In addition, it was found that the generic treatment of aerosols has no substantial influence on the major conclusions drawn in this thesis. Moreover, in the more comprehensive approach, it was found that emissions of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides from MPCs influence the atmospheric burden of various aerosol types very differently, with impacts generally being larger for secondary species, sulfate and nitrate, than for primary species, black carbon and particulate organic matter. While the changes in the burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and particulate organic matter show an almost linear response for changes in the emission strength, the formation of nitrate was found to be contingent upon many more factors, e.g., the abundance of sulfuric acid, than only upon the strength of the nitrogen oxide emissions. The generic tracer experiments were further extended to conduct the first risk assessment to obtain the cumulative risk of contamination from multiple nuclear reactor accidents on the global scale. For this, many factors had to be taken into account: the probability of major accidents, the cumulative deposition field of the radionuclide cesium-137, and a threshold value that defines contamination. By collecting the necessary data and after accounting for uncertainties, it was found that the risk is highest in western Europe, the eastern US, and in Japan, where on average contamination by major accidents is expected about every 50 years.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

Climatic and human impacts on mountain vegetation at Lauenensee (Bernese Alps, Switzerland) during the last 14,000 years

Lake sediments from Lauenensee (1381 m a.s.l.), a small lake in the Bernese Alps, were analysed to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history. The chronology is based on 11 calibrated radiocarbon dates on terrestrial plant macrofossils suggesting a basal age of 14,200 cal. BP. Pollen and macrofossil data imply that treeline never reached the lake catchment during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial. Treeline north of the Alps was depressed by c. 300 altitudinal meters, if compared with southern locations. We attribute this difference to colder temperatures and to unbuffered cold air excursions from the ice masses in northern Europe. Afforestation started after the Younger Dryas at 11,600 cal. BP. Early-Holocene tree-Betula and Pinus sylvestris forests were replaced by Abies alba forests around 7500 cal. BP. Continuous high-resolution pollen and macrofossil series allow quantitative assessments of vegetation dynamics at 5900–5200 cal. BP (first expansion of Picea abies, decline of Abies alba) and 4100–2900 cal. BP (first collapse of Abies alba). The first signs of human activity became noticeable during the late Neolithic c. 5700–5200 cal. BP. Cross-correlation analysis shows that the expansion of Alnus viridis and the replacement of Abies alba by Picea abies after c. 5500 cal. BP was most likely a consequence of human disturbance. Abies alba responded very sensitively to a combination of fire and grazing disturbance. Our results imply that the current dominance of Picea abies in the upper montane and subalpine belts is a consequence of anthropogenic activities through the millennia.

Ecosystem impacts of feral rabbits on World Heritage sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island: A palaeoecological perspective

The introduction and establishment of non-indigenous species through human activities often poses a major threat to natural biodiversity. In many parts of the world management efforts are therefore focused on their eradication. The environment of World Heritage sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island has been severely damaged by non-indigenous species including rabbits, rats and mice, introduced from the late AD 1800s. An extensive eradication programme is now underway which aims to remove all rabbits and rodents. To provide a long-term context for assessing the Island's pre-invasion state, invasion impacts, and to provide a baseline for monitoring its recovery, we undertook a palaeoecological study using proxies in a lake sediment core. Sedimentological and diatom analyses revealed an unproductive catchment and lake environment persisted for ca. 7100 years prior to the introduction of the invasive species. After ca. AD 1898, unprecedented and statistically significant environmental changes occurred. Lake sediment accumulation rates increased >100 times due to enhanced catchment inputs and within-lake production. Total carbon and total nitrogen contents of the sediments increased by a factor of four. The diatom flora became dominated by two previously rare species. The results strongly suggest a causal link between the anthropogenic introduction of rabbits and the changes identified in the lake sediments. This study provides an example of how palaeoecology may be used to determine baseline conditions prior to the introduction of non-indigenous species, quantify the timing and extent of changes, and help monitor the recovery of the ecosystem and natural biodiversity following successful non-indigenous species eradication programmes.

An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with very high certainty that anthropogenic emissions have caused measurable changes in the physical ocean environment. These changes are summarized with special focus on those that are predicted to have the strongest, most direct effects on ocean biological processes; namely, ocean warming and associated phenomena (including stratification and sea level rise) as well as deoxygenation and ocean acidification. The biological effects of these changes are then discussed for microbes (including phytoplankton), plants, animals, warm and cold-water corals, and ecosystems. The IPCC AR5 highlighted several areas related to both the physical and biological processes that required further research. As a rapidly developing field, there have been many pertinent studies published since the cut off dates for the AR5, which have increased our understanding of the processes at work. This study undertook an extensive review of recently published literature to update the findings of the AR5 and provide a synthesized review on the main issues facing future oceans. The level of detail provided in the AR5 and subsequent work provided a basis for constructing projections of the state of ocean ecosystems in 2100 under two the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally the review highlights notable additions, clarifications and points of departure from AR5 provided by subsequent studies.

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Human impacts and aridity differentially alter soil N availability in drylands worldwide

Aims Climate and human impacts are changing the nitrogen (N) inputs and losses in terrestrial ecosystems. However, it is largely unknown how these two major drivers of global change will simultaneously influence the N cycle in drylands, the largest terrestrial biome on the planet. We conducted a global observational study to evaluate how aridity and human impacts, together with biotic and abiotic factors, affect key soil variables of the N cycle. Location Two hundred and twenty-four dryland sites from all continents except Antarctica widely differing in their environmental conditions and human influence. Methods Using a standardized field survey, we measured aridity, human impacts (i.e. proxies of land uses and air pollution), key biophysical variables (i.e. soil pH and texture and total plant cover) and six important variables related to N cycling in soils: total N, organic N, ammonium, nitrate, dissolved organic:inorganic N and N mineralization rates. We used structural equation modelling to assess the direct and indirect effects of aridity, human impacts and key biophysical variables on the N cycle. Results Human impacts increased the concentration of total N, while aridity reduced it. The effects of aridity and human impacts on the N cycle were spatially disconnected, which may favour scarcity of N in the most arid areas and promote its accumulation in the least arid areas. Main conclusions We found that increasing aridity and anthropogenic pressure are spatially disconnected in drylands. This implies that while places with low aridity and high human impact accumulate N, most arid sites with the lowest human impacts lose N. Our analyses also provide evidence that both increasing aridity and human impacts may enhance the relative dominance of inorganic N in dryland soils, having a negative impact on key functions and services provided by these ecosystems.

A Comparison of the Impacts of Lithium Extraction and Lithium Recycling Processes

Lithium is used in the cathode and electrolyte of rechargeable batteries in many portable electronics and electric vehicles, and is thus seen as a critical component of modern technology (Gruber et al., 2011). Electric vehicles are promoted as a way to reduce carbon emissions associated with the transportation sector, which accounts for 14.3% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (OECD International Transport Forum, 2010). However, the sustainability of lithium procurement will influence the overall environmental impact of this proposed “green” solution. It is estimated that 66% of the world’s lithium resource is contained in natural brines, 24% in pegmatites, and 8% in sedimentary rocks such as hectorite clays (Gruber et al., 2011). It has been shown that “[r]ecycling of lithium from Li-ion batteries may be a critical factor in balancing the supply of lithium with future demand” (Gruber et al., 2011). In an attempt to quantify energy and materials consumption associated with production of a unit of useful lithium compounds, industry reports and peer-reviewed scientific literature concerning lithium mining and lithium recycling were reviewed and compared. Other aspects of sustainability, such as waste or by-products produced in the production of a unit of useful lithium, were also explored. Thus, this paper will serve to further the evaluation of the comparative environmental consequences associated with lithium production via extraction versus recycling. Efficiencies must be made in both processes to maximize productivity while minimizing ecological harm.

Potential Future Coral Habitats Around Japan Depend Strongly on Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

Using the results from the NCAR CSM1.4-coupled global carbon cycle– climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios SRES A2 and B1, we estimated the effects of both global warming and ocean acidification on the future habitats of corals in the seas around Japan during this century. As shown by Yara et al. (Biogeosciences 9:4955–4968,2012), under the high-CO₂-emission scenario (SRES A2), coral habitats will be sandwiched and narrowed between the northern region, where the saturation state of the carbonate mineral aragonite (Ωarag) decreases, and the southern region, where coral bleaching occurs. We found that under the low-emission scenario SRES B1, the coral habitats will also shrink in the northern region by the reduced Ωarag but to a lesser extent than under SRES A2, and in contrast to SRES A2, no bleaching will occur in the southern region. Therefore, coral habitats in the southern region are expected to be largely unaffected by ocean acidification or surface warming under the low-emission scenario. Our results show that potential future coral habitats depend strongly on CO₂ emissions and emphasize the importance of reducing CO₂ emissions to prevent negative impacts on coral habitats.

Genetic resource impacts of habitat loss and degradation; reconciling empirical evidence and predicted theory for neotropical trees

The theoretical impacts of anthropogenic habitat degradation on genetic resources have been well articulated. Here we use a simulation approach to assess the magnitude of expected genetic change, and review 31 studies of 23 neotropical tree species to assess whether empirical case studies conform to theory. Major differences in the sensitivity of measures to detect the genetic health of degraded populations were obvious. Most studies employing genetic diversity (nine out of 13) found no significant consequences, yet most that assessed progeny inbreeding (six out of eight), reproductive output (seven out of 10) and fitness (all six) highlighted significant impacts. These observations are in line with theory, where inbreeding is observed immediately following impact, but genetic diversity is lost slowly over subsequent generations, which for trees may take decades. Studies also highlight the ecological, not just genetic, consequences of habitat degradation that can cause reduced seed set and progeny fitness. Unexpectedly, two studies examining pollen flow using paternity analysis highlight an extensive network of gene flow at smaller spatial scales (less than 10 km). Gene flow can thus mitigate against loss of genetic diversity and assist in long-term population viability, even in degraded landscapes. Unfortunately, the surveyed studies were too few and heterogeneous to examine concepts of population size thresholds and genetic resilience in relation to life history. Future suggested research priorities include undertaking integrated studies on a range of species in the same landscapes; better documentation of the extent and duration of impact; and most importantly, combining neutral marker, pollination dynamics, ecological consequences, and progeny fitness assessment within single studies.

Climate change impacts on migration and labour market

Floods, droughts and monsoons have always disturbed human settlements, but there are more settlements now and more people in the world. Therefore, if a natural disaster happens, more will suffer than ever before. Moreover, climate in the past several decades has been greatly degraded by anthropogenic activity. In some cases, the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (e.g. the effects of irrigation on local humidity), though there are instances where it is less clear. Presently, the scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase of global average temperatures, more generally known as global warming.

Human impacts on pig frog (Rana grylio) populations in south Florida wetlands: Harvest, water management and mercury contamination

This study investigated how harvest and water management affected the ecology of the Pig Frog, Rana grylio. It also examined how mercury levels in leg muscle tissue vary spatially across the Everglades. Rana grylio is an intermediate link in the Everglades food web. Although common, this inconspicuous species can be affected by three forms of anthropogenic disturbance: harvest, water management and mercury contamination. This frog is harvested both commercially and recreationally for its legs, is aquatic and thus may be susceptible to water management practices, and can transfer mercury throughout the Everglades food web. ^ This two-year study took place in three major regions: Everglades National Park (ENP), Water Conservation Areas 3A (A), and Water Conservation Area 3B (B). The study categorized the three sites by their relative harvest level and hydroperiod. During the spring of 2001, areas of the Everglades dried completely. On a regional and local scale Pig Frog abundance was highest in Site A, the longest hydroperiod, heavily harvested site, followed by ENP and B. More frogs were found along survey transects and in capture-recapture plots before the dry-down than after the dry-down in Sites ENP and B. Individual growth patterns were similar across all sites, suggesting differences in body size may be due to selective harvest. Frogs from Site A, the flooded and harvested site, had no differences in survival rates between adults and juveniles. Site B populations shifted from a juvenile to adult dominated population after the dry-down. Dry-downs appeared to affect survival rates more than harvest. ^ Total mercury in frog leg tissue was highest in protected areas of Everglades National Park with a maximum concentration of 2.3 mg/kg wet mass where harvesting is prohibited. Similar spatial patterns in mercury levels were found among pig frogs and other wildlife throughout parts of the Everglades. Pig Frogs may be transferring substantial levels of mercury to other wildlife species in ENP. ^ In summary, although it was found that abundance and survival were reduced by dry-down, lack of adult size classes in Site A, suggest harvest also plays a role in regulating population structure. ^

A Comparison of the Impacts of Lithium Extraction and Lithium Recycling Processes

Lithium is used in the cathode and electrolyte of rechargeable batteries in many portable electronics and electric vehicles, and is thus seen as a critical component of modern technology (Gruber et al., 2011). Electric vehicles are promoted as a way to reduce carbon emissions associated with the transportation sector, which accounts for 14.3% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (OECD International Transport Forum, 2010). However, the sustainability of lithium procurement will influence the overall environmental impact of this proposed “green” solution. It is estimated that 66% of the world’s lithium resource is contained in natural brines, 24% in pegmatites, and 8% in sedimentary rocks such as hectorite clays (Gruber et al., 2011). It has been shown that “[r]ecycling of lithium from Li-ion batteries may be a critical factor in balancing the supply of lithium with future demand” (Gruber et al., 2011). In an attempt to quantify energy and materials consumption associated with production of a unit of useful lithium compounds, industry reports and peer-reviewed scientific literature concerning lithium mining and lithium recycling were reviewed and compared. Other aspects of sustainability, such as waste or by-products produced in the production of a unit of useful lithium, were also explored. Thus, this paper will serve to further the evaluation of the comparative environmental consequences associated with lithium production via extraction versus recycling. Efficiencies must be made in both processes to maximize productivity while minimizing ecological harm.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.