Arctic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation in internal atmospheric variability

n this study, we investigated the features of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), that is, the annular modes in the extratropics, in the internal atmospheric variability attained through an ensemble of integrations by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with the global observed SSTs. We focused on the interannual variability of AO/AAO, which is dominated by internal atmospheric variability. In comparison with previous observed results, the AO/AAO in internal atmospheric variability bear some similar characteristics, but exhibit a much clearer spatial structure: significant correlation between the North Pacific and North Atlantic centers of action, much stronger and more significant associated precipitation anomalies, and the meridional displacement of upper-tropospheric westerly jet streams in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we examined the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/AO and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It has been shown that in the internal atmospheric variability, the EAWM variation is significantly related to the NAO through upper-tropospheric atmospheric teleconnection patterns.

Influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on the polar mesopause region as simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

It is well established that variations in polar stratospheric winds can affect mesospheric temperatures through changes in the filtering of gravity wave fluxes, which drive a residual circulation in the mesosphere. The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model(CMAM) is used to examine this vertical coupling mechanism in the context of the mesospheric response to the Antarctic ozone hole. It is found that the response differs significantly between late spring and early summer, because of a changing balance between the competing effects of parametrised gravity wavedrag (GWD)and changes in resolved wave drag local to the mesosphere. In late spring, the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the ozone hole lead to reduced eastward GWD in the mesosphere and a warming of the polar mesosphere, just as in the well known mesospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings, but with an opposite sign.In early summer, with easterly flow revailing over most of the polar stratosphere,the strengthened easterly wind shear within the mesosphere arising from the west ward GWD anomaly induces a positive resolved wave drag anomaly through baroclinic instability. The polar cooling induced by this process completely dominates the upper mesospheric response to the ozone hole in early summer. Consequences for the past and future evolution of noctilucent clouds are discussed

Chemistry‐climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone

Coupled chemistry‐climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.

A Possible Change in Mass Balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Coming Century

A high-resolution GCM is found to simulate precipitation and surface energy balance of high latitudes with high accuracy. This opens new possibilities to investigate the future mass balance of polar glaciers and its effect on sea level. The surface mass balance of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets is simulated using the ECHAM3 GCM with TI06 horizontal resolution. With this model, two 5-year integrations for the present and doubled carbon dioxide conditions based on the boundary conditions provided by the ECHAM1/T21 transient experiment have been conducted. A comparison of the two experiments over Greenland and Antarctica shows to what extent the effect of climate change on the mass balance on the two largest glaciers of the world can differ. On Greenland one sees a slight decrease in accumulation and a substantial increase in melt, while on Antarctica a large increase in accumulation without melt is projected. Translating the mass balances into terms of sea-level equivalent. the Greenland discharge causes a sea level rise of 1.1 mm yr−1, while the accumulation on Antarctica tends to lower it by 0.9 mm yr−1. The change in the combined mass balance of the two continents is almost zero. The sea level change of the next century can be affected more effectively by the thermal expansion of seawater and the mass balance of smaller glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica.

Comparison of polar ozone loss rates simulated by one-dimensional and three-dimensional models with Match observations in recent Antarctic and Arctic winters

Simulations of ozone loss rates using a three-dimensional chemical transport model and a box model during recent Antarctic and Arctic winters are compared with experimental loss rates. The study focused on the Antarctic winter 2003, during which the first Antarctic Match campaign was organized, and on Arctic winters 1999/2000, 2002/2003. The maximum ozone loss rates retrieved by the Match technique for the winters and levels studied reached 6 ppbv/sunlit hour and both types of simulations could generally reproduce the observations at 2-sigma error bar level. In some cases, for example, for the Arctic winter 2002/2003 at 475 K level, an excellent agreement within 1-sigma standard deviation level was obtained. An overestimation was also found with the box model simulation at some isentropic levels for the Antarctic winter and the Arctic winter 1999/2000, indicating an overestimation of chlorine activation in the model. Loss rates in the Antarctic show signs of saturation in September, which have to be considered in the comparison. Sensitivity tests were performed with the box model in order to assess the impact of kinetic parameters of the ClO-Cl2O2 catalytic cycle and total bromine content on the ozone loss rate. These tests resulted in a maximum change in ozone loss rates of 1.2 ppbv/sunlit hour, generally in high solar zenith angle conditions. In some cases, a better agreement was achieved with fastest photolysis of Cl2O2 and additional source of total inorganic bromine but at the expense of overestimation of smaller ozone loss rates derived later in the winter.

High resolution simulation of recent Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric chemical ozone loss compared to observations

Simulations of polar ozone losses were performed using the three-dimensional high-resolution (1∘ × 1∘) chemical transport model MIMOSA-CHIM. Three Arctic winters 1999–2000, 2001–2002, 2002–2003 and three Antarctic winters 2001, 2002, and 2003 were considered for the study. The cumulative ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2002–2003 reached around 35% at 475 K inside the vortex, as compared to more than 60% in 1999–2000. During 1999–2000, denitrification induces a maximum of about 23% extra ozone loss at 475 K as compared to 17% in 2002–2003. Unlike these two colder Arctic winters, the 2001–2002 Arctic was warmer and did not experience much ozone loss. Sensitivity tests showed that the chosen resolution of 1∘ × 1∘ provides a better evaluation of ozone loss at the edge of the polar vortex in high solar zenith angle conditions. The simulation results for ozone, ClO, HNO3, N2O, and NO y for winters 1999–2000 and 2002–2003 were compared with measurements on board ER-2 and Geophysica aircraft respectively. Sensitivity tests showed that increasing heating rates calculated by the model by 50% and doubling the PSC (Polar Stratospheric Clouds) particle density (from 5 × 10−3 to 10−2 cm−3) refines the agreement with in situ ozone, N2O and NO y levels. In this configuration, simulated ClO levels are increased and are in better agreement with observations in January but are overestimated by about 20% in March. The use of the Burkholder et al. (1990) Cl2O2 absorption cross-sections slightly increases further ClO levels especially in high solar zenith angle conditions. Comparisons of the modelled ozone values with ozonesonde measurement in the Antarctic winter 2003 and with Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III (POAM III) measurements in the Antarctic winters 2001 and 2002, shows that the simulations underestimate the ozone loss rate at the end of the ozone destruction period. A slightly better agreement is obtained with the use of Burkholder et al. (1990) Cl2O2 absorption cross-sections.

Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than preindustrial (CO2~280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.

Variability and trends in stratospheric NO2 in Antarctic summer, and implications for stratospheric NOy

NO2 measurements during 1990–2007, obtained from a zenith-sky spectrometer in the Antarctic, are analysed to determine the long-term changes in NO2. An atmospheric photochemical box model and a radiative transfer model are used to improve the accuracy of determination of the vertical columns from the slant column measurements, and to deduce the amount of NOy from NO2. We find that the NO2 and NOy columns in midsummer have large inter-annual variability superimposed on a broad maximum in 2000, with little or no overall trend over the full time period. These changes are robust to a variety of alternative settings when determining vertical columns from slant columns or determining NOy from NO2. They may signify similar changes in speed of the Brewer-Dobson circulation but with opposite sign, i.e. a broad minimum around 2000. Multiple regressions show significant correlation with solar and quasi-biennial-oscillation indices, and weak correlation with El Nino, but no significant overall trend, corresponding to an increase in Brewer-Dobson circulation of 1.4±3.5%/decade. There remains an unexplained cycle of amplitude and period at least 15% and 17 years, with minimum speed in about 2000.

The Mid-Brunhes Event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability

The complex cyclical nature of Pleistocene climate, driven by the evolving orbital configuration of the Earth, is well known but not well understood. A major climatic transition took place at the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE), ca. 430 ka ago after which the amplitude of the ca.100 ka climate oscillations increased, with substantially warmer interglacials, including periods warmer than present. Recent modelling has indicated that while the timing of these warmer-than-present transient (WPT) events is consistent with southern warming due to a deglaciation-forced slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the magnitude of warming requires a local amplification, for which a candidate is the feedback of significant West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat. We here extend this argument, based on the absence of WPTs in the early ice core record (450–800 ka ago), to hypothesize that the MBE could be a manifestation of decreased WAIS stability, triggered by ongoing subglacial erosion.

Impact of atmospheric forcing on Antarctic continental shelf water masses

The Antarctic continental shelf seas feature a bimodal distribution of water mass temperature, with the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas flooded by Circumpolar Deep Water that is several degrees Celsius warmer than the cold shelf waters prevalent in the Weddell and Ross Seas. This bimodal distribution could be caused by differences in atmospheric forcing, ocean dynamics, ocean and ice feedbacks, or some combination of these factors. In this study, a highly simplified coupled sea ice–mixed layer model is developed to investigate the physical processes controlling this situation. Under regional atmospheric forcings and parameter choices the 10-yr simulations demonstrate a complete destratification of the Weddell Sea water column in winter, forming cold, relatively saline shelf waters, while the Amundsen Sea winter mixed layer remains shallower, allowing a layer of deep warm water to persist. Applying the Weddell atmospheric forcing to the Amundsen Sea model destratifies the water column after two years, and applying the Amundsen forcing to the Weddell Sea model results in a shallower steady-state winter mixed layer that no longer destratifies the water column. This suggests that the regional difference in atmospheric forcings alone is sufficient to account for the bimodal distribution in Antarctic shelf-sea temperatures. The model prediction of mixed layer depth is most sensitive to the air temperature forcing, but a switch in all forcings is required to prevent destratification of the Weddell Sea water column.

Generation of a buoyancy-driven coastal current by an Antarctic Polynya

Descent and spreading of high salinity water generated by salt rejection during sea ice formation in an Antarctic coastal polynya is studied using a hydrostatic, primitive equation three-dimensional ocean model called the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modeling System (POLCOMS). The shape of the polynya is assumed to be a rectangle 100 km long and 30 km wide, and the salinity flux into the polynya at its surface is constant. The model has been run at high horizontal spatial resolution (500 m), and numerical simulations reveal a buoyancy-driven coastal current. The coastal current is a robust feature and appears in a range of simulations designed to investigate the influence of a sloping bottom, variable bottom drag, variable vertical turbulent diffusivities, higher salinity flux, and an offshore position of the polynya. It is shown that bottom drag is the main factor determining the current width. This coastal current has not been produced with other numerical models of polynyas, which may be because these models were run at coarser resolutions. The coastal current becomes unstable upstream of its front when the polynya is adjacent to the coast. When the polynya is situated offshore, an unstable current is produced from its outset owing to the capture of cyclonic eddies. The effect of a coastal protrusion and a canyon on the current motion is investigated. In particular, due to the convex shape of the coastal protrusion, the current sheds a dipolar eddy.

Ice-stream initiation, duration and thinning on James Ross Island, northern Antarctic Peninsula

Predicting the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change requires an understanding of the ice streams that dominate its dynamics. Here we use cosmogenic isotope exposure-age dating (26Al, 10Be and 36Cl) of erratic boulders on ice-free land on James Ross Island, north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, to define the evolution of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice in the adjacent Prince Gustav Channel. These data include ice-sheet extent, thickness and dynamical behaviour. Prior to ∼18 ka, the LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet extended to the continental shelf-edge and transported erratic boulders onto high-elevation mesas on James Ross Island. After ∼18 ka there was a period of rapid ice-sheet surface-lowering, coincident with the initiation of the Prince Gustav Ice Stream. This timing coincided with rapid increases in atmospheric temperature and eustatic sea-level rise around the Antarctic Peninsula. Collectively, these data provide evidence for a transition from a thick, cold-based LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to a thinner, partially warm-based ice sheet during deglaciation.

Landscape evolution and ice-sheet behaviour in a semi-arid polar environment: James Ross Island, NE Antarctic Peninsula

This study of landscape evolution presents both new modern and palaeo process-landform data, and analyses the behaviour of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Holocene and to the present day. Six sediment-landform assemblages are described and interpreted for Ulu Peninsula, James Ross Island, NE Antarctic Peninsula: (1) the Glacier Ice and Snow Assemblage; (2) the Glacigenic Assemblage, which relates to LGM sediments and comprises both erratic-poor and erratic-rich drift, deposited by cold-based and wet-based ice and ice streams respectively; (3) the Boulder Train Assemblage, deposited during a Mid-Holocene glacier readvance; (4) the Ice-cored Moraine Assemblage, found in front of small cirque glaciers; (5) the Paraglacial Assemblage including scree, pebble-boulder lags, and littoral and fluvial processes; and (6) the Periglacial Assemblage including rock glaciers, protalus ramparts, blockfields, solifluction lobes and extensive patterned ground. The interplay between glacial, paraglacial and periglacial processes in this semi-arid polar environment is important in understanding polygenetic landforms. Crucially, cold-based ice was capable of sediment and landform genesis and modification. This landsystem model can aid the interpretation of past environments, but also provides new data to aid the reconstruction of the last ice sheet to overrun James Ross Island.

Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet evolution during the Cenozoic Era

The Antarctic Peninsula region is currently undergoing rapid environmental change, resulting in the thinning, acceleration and recession of glaciers and the sequential collapse of ice shelves. It is important to view these changes in the context of long-term palaeoenvironmental complexity and to understand the key processes controlling ice sheet growth and recession. In addition, numerical ice sheet models require detailed geological data for tuning and testing. Therefore, this paper systematically and holistically reviews published geological evidence for Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet variability for each key locality throughout the Cenozoic, and brings together the prevailing consensus of the extent, character and behaviour of the glaciations of the Antarctic Peninsula region. Major contributions include a downloadable database of 186 terrestrial and marine calibrated dates; an original reconstruction of the LGM ice sheet; and a new series of isochrones detailing ice sheet retreat following the LGM. Glaciation of Antarctica was initiated around the Eocene/Oligocene transition in East Antarctica. Palaeogene records of Antarctic Peninsula glaciation are primarily restricted to King George Island, where glacigenic sediments provide a record of early East Antarctic glaciations, but with modification of far-travelled erratics by local South Shetland Island ice caps. Evidence for Neogene glaciation is derived primarily from King George Island and James Ross Island, where glaciovolcanic strata indicate that ice thicknesses reached 500–850 m during glacials. This suggests that the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet draped, rather than drowned, the topography. Marine geophysical investigations indicate multiple ice sheet advances during this time. Seismic profiling of continental shelf-slope deposits indicates up to ten large advances of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet during the Early Pleistocene, when the ice sheet was dominated by 40 kyr cycles. Glacials became more pronounced, reaching the continental shelf edge, and of longer duration during the Middle Pleistocene. During the Late Pleistocene, repeated glacials reached the shelf edge, but ice shelves inhibited iceberg rafting. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) occurred at 18 ka BP, after which transitional glaciomarine sediments on the continental shelf indicate ice-sheet retreat. The continental shelf contains large bathymetric troughs, which were repeatedly occupied by large ice streams during Pleistocene glaciations. Retreat after the LGM was episodic in the Weddell Sea, with multiple readvances and changes in ice-flow direction, but rapid in the Bellingshausen Sea. The late Holocene Epoch was characterised by repeated fluctuations in palaeoenvironmental conditions, with associated glacial readvances. However, this has been subsumed by rapid warming and ice-shelf collapse during the twentieth century.