980 resultados para Annual cycle


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El estudio de las comunidades de cianobacterias en la cuenca del río Muga permite profundizar en la búsqueda de factores que favorezcan o inhiban la acumulación intracelular de microcistinas y su liberación al medio externo en condiciones oligotróficas o con leves signos de eutrofia, al tiempo que permiten aportar nuevos conocimientos que ayuden a mejorar el entendimiento de los mecanismos y procesos que participan en la dinámica de las comunidades de cianobacterias bentónicas y las microcistinas asociadas en ecosistemas fluviales mediterráneos. Se ha realizado un estudio de la estructura y variabilidad de las comunidades de cianobacterias durante un ciclo anual completo mediante muestreos mensuales y muestreos con menor periodicidad durante un segundo ciclo posterior. Dichos muestreos han permitido observar diferentes patrones espacio-temporales a lo largo de todo el período de estudio en los 4 puntos de muestreo seleccionados en la cuenca del río Muga. Estos 4 tramos incluyen 1 punto regulado:aguas abajo del embalse de Boadella, y 3 sin regular:2 cabeceras y un punto aguas abajo de la población de Albanyà. Se han identificado un total de 34 especies de cianobacterias bentónicas en las 4 zonas estudiadas, predominando siempre especies de aguas limpias o poco alteradas. Dos especies, Rivularia biasolettiana (zonas más limpias y expuestas) y Phormidium retzii (sonas esciáfilas o con alta velocidad de corriente), resultan dominantes en gran parte de ellas. Se han reconocido un total de 6 microcistinas acumuladas intracelularmente en la comunidad bentónica de cianobacterias, identificando 3 de ellas: MC-RR, MC-LR y MC-YR. La concentración de microcistinas intracelulares ha disminuído a lo largo del eje principal del río Muga, determinada por diferentes factores físicos, químicos y biológicos. A nivel general, la acumulación total de microcistinas intracelulares ha estado asociada a un aumento de la temperatura del agua, un descenso en la diversidad de la comunidad de cianobacterias y pequeños incrementos de la concentración de fósforo disuelto en el agua. En cuanto a la liberación de microcistinas, ha estado vinculada a distintas perturbaciones soportadas por la comunidad cianobacteriana, tanto asociadas a factores físicos naturales como antrópicos.

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En aquest treball de tesi doctoral es descriu l'estructura gonadal, gametogènesi i cicle anual de Scorpaena porcus, S. scrofa i S. elongata per tal d'aprofundir en el coneixement dels diferents graus d'especialització dins l'oviparisme en peixos. Es pretén fer èmfasi en aquells trets inusuals que difereixen del què s'ha descrit fins ara per la majoria de les espècies ovípares de teleostis, i relacionar-los amb l'estratègia reproductiva de les espècies que els presenten El mostreig s'ha dut a terme de forma intensiva entre l'any 2000 i 2002, tot i que s'ha continuat recol·lectant mostres fins a l'agost de 2004, amb més o menys freqüència segons la necessitat. En total s'han obtingut 258 exemplars de S. porcus, 119 de S. scrofa i 46 de S. elongata. S'ha pogut veure com S. porcus, S. scrofa i S. elongata són espècies ovípares ovulípares especialitzades, ja que la seva estructura ovàrica presenta tot una sèrie de trets molt particulars i poc comuns a la resta de peixos ovípars estudiats fins ara: posició central del raquis musculo-connectiu que es troba envoltat completament pel lumen i la paret ovàrica; presència de peduncles en oòcits en fase de creixement secundari; escassetat i mida petita dels alvèols corticals; poc gruix de la zona radiata; i secreció d'una massa gelatinosa que engloba els ous en el moment de la posta. Totes aquestes característiques també s'han observat en Scorpaena notata, suggerint que l'especialització de l'oviparisme ovulípar es dóna en tot el gènere Scorpaena. L'estructura testicular i l'espermatogènesi d'aquestes espècies també és força particular. Per una banda els testicles són del tipus lobular no-restringit, tot i que presenten algunes característiques com la ordenació parcial dels cists segons l'estadi de maduració de les cèl·lules germinals que contenen i l'absència de lumen central, que actualment només s'ha observat en testicles del tipus lobular restringit de les espècies de la sèrie Aterinomorpha. Per l'altre banda, l'espermatogènesi és del tipus semicística, és a dir, els cists s'obren abans d'acabar tot el procés i les cèl·lules germinals s'acaben de desenvolupar a la llum del lòbul fins a espermatozoides. La posta d'aquestes espècies és múltipla i constisteix en una massa gelatinosa d'ous pelàgica, que en el cas de S. porcus s'alliberen entre els mesos de juny i agost, i en S. scrofa, a partir del mes de juliol. S'ha relacionat la presència d'aquesta massa amb un aparellament mascle-femella, de manera que el mascle alliberaria l'esperma directament sobre la massa d'ous, assegurant així la fartilització total dels mateixos.

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Small, at-risk populations are those for which accurate demographic information is most crucial to conservation and recovery, but also where data collection is constrained by logistical challenges and small sample sizes. Migratory animals in particular may experience a wide range of threats to survival and reproduction throughout each annual cycle, and identification of life stages most critical to persistence may be especially difficult for these populations. The endangered eastern Canadian breeding population of Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) was estimated at only 444 adults in 2005, and extensive effort has been invested in conservation activities, reproductive monitoring, and marking of individual birds, providing a comprehensive data set on population dynamics since 1998. We used these data to build a matrix projection model for two Piping Plover population segments that nest in eastern Canada in order to estimate both deterministic and stochastic rates of population growth (λd and λs, respectively). Annual population censuses suggested moderate growth in abundance between 1998–2003, but vital rate estimates indicated that this temporary growth may be replaced by declines in the long term, both in southern Nova Scotia (λd = 1.0043, λs = 0.9263) and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (λd = 0.9651, λs = 0.8214). Nonetheless, confidence intervals on λ estimates were relatively wide, highlighting remaining uncertainty in future population trajectories. Differences in projected growth between regions appear to be driven by low estimated juvenile post-fledging survival in the Gulf, but threats to juveniles of both population segments following departure from nesting beaches remain unidentified. Similarly, λ in both population segments was particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival as expected for most migratory birds, but very little is understood about the threats to Piping Plover survival during migration and overwintering. Consequently, we suggest that future recovery efforts for these and other vulnerable migrants should quantify and manage the largely unknown sources of both adult and juvenile mortality during non-breeding seasons while maintaining current levels of nesting habitat protection.

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Although studies often report that densities of many forest birds are negatively related to urbanization, the mechanisms guiding this pattern are poorly understood. Our objective was to use a population simulation to examine the relative influence of six demographic and behavioral processes on patterns of avian abundance in urbanizing landscapes. We constructed an individual-based population simulation model representing the annual cycle of a Neotropical migratory songbird. Each simulation was performed under two landscape scenarios. The first scenario had similar proportions of high- and low-quality habitat across the urban to rural gradient. Under the first scenario, avian density was negatively related to urbanization only when rural habitats were perceived to be of higher quality than they actually were. The second landscape scenario had declining proportions of high-quality habitat as urbanization increased. Under the second scenario, each mechanism generated a negative relationship between density and urbanization. The strongest effect on density resulted when birds preferentially selected habitats in landscapes from which they fledged or were constrained from dispersing. The next strongest patterns occurred when birds directly evaluated habitat quality and accurately selected the highest-quality available territories. When birds selected habitats based on the presence of conspecifics, the density–urbanization relationship was only one-third the strength of other habitat selection mechanisms and only occurred under certain levels of population survival. Although differences in adult or nest survival in the face of random habitat selection still elicited reduced densities in urban landscapes, the relationships between urbanization and density were weaker than those produced by the conspecific attraction mechanism. Results from our study identify key predictions and areas for future research, including assessing habitat quality in urban and rural areas in order to determine if habitats in urban areas are underutilized.

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Birds are vulnerable to collisions with human-made fixed structures. Despite ongoing development and increases in infrastructure, we have few estimates of the magnitude of collision mortality. We reviewed the existing literature on avian mortality associated with transmission lines and derived an initial estimate for Canada. Estimating mortality from collisions with power lines is challenging due to the lack of studies, especially from sites within Canada, and due to uncertainty about the magnitude of detection biases. Detection of bird collisions with transmission lines varies due to habitat type, species size, and scavenging rates. In addition, birds can be crippled by the impact and subsequently die, although crippling rates are poorly known and rarely incorporated into estimates. We used existing data to derive a range of estimates of avian mortality associated with collisions with transmission lines in Canada by incorporating detection, scavenging, and crippling biases. There are 231,966 km of transmission lines across Canada, mostly in the boreal forest. Mortality estimates ranged from 1 million to 229.5 million birds per year, depending on the bias corrections applied. We consider our most realistic estimate, taking into account variation in risk across Canada, to range from 2.5 million to 25.6 million birds killed per year. Data from multiple studies across Canada and the northern U.S. indicate that the most vulnerable bird groups are (1) waterfowl, (2) grebes, (3) shorebirds, and (4) cranes, which is consistent with other studies. Populations of several groups that are vulnerable to collisions are increasing across Canada (e.g., waterfowl, raptors), which suggests that collision mortality, at current levels, is not limiting population growth. However, there may be impacts on other declining species, such as shorebirds and some species at risk, including Alberta’s Trumpeter Swans (Cygnus buccinator) and western Canada’s endangered Whooping Cranes (Grus americana). Collisions may be more common during migration, which underscores the need to understand impacts across the annual cycle. We emphasize that these estimates are preliminary, especially considering the absence of Canadian studies.

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A coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is used to investigate the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability due to a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The THC weakening is induced by freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic, and leads to a well-known sea surface temperature dipole and a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic. Through atmospheric teleconnections and local coupled air–sea feedbacks, a meridionally asymmetric mean state change is generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific, corresponding to a weakened annual cycle, and westerly anomalies develop over the central Pacific. The westerly anomalies are associated with anomalous warming of SST, causing an eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool particularly in August–February, and enhanced precipitation. These and other changes in the mean state lead in turn to an eastward shift of the zonal wind anomalies associated with El Niño events, and a significant increase in ENSO variability. In response to a 1-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) freshwater input in the North Atlantic, the THC slows down rapidly and it weakens by 86% over years 50–100. The Niño-3 index standard deviation increases by 36% during the first 100-yr simulation relative to the control simulation. Further analysis indicates that the weakened THC not only leads to a stronger ENSO variability, but also leads to a stronger asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. This study suggests a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific and indicates that fluctuations of the THC can mediate not only mean climate globally but also modulate interannual variability. The results may contribute to understanding both the multidecadal variability of ENSO activity during the twentieth century and longer time-scale variability of ENSO, as suggested by some paleoclimate records.

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The influences of a substantial weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the tropical Pacific climate mean state, the annual cycle, and ENSO variability are studied using five different coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In the CGCMs, a substantial weakening of the AMOC is induced by adding freshwater flux forcing in the northern North Atlantic. In response, the well-known surface temperature dipole in the low-latitude Atlantic is established, which reorganizes the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation by increasing the northeasterly trade winds. This leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic and also the eastern tropical Pacific. Because of evaporative fluxes, mixing, and changes in Ekman divergence, a meridional temperature anomaly is generated in the northeastern tropical Pacific, which leads to the development of a meridionally symmetric thermal background state. In four out of five CGCMs this leads to a substantial weakening of the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a subsequent intensification of ENSO variability due to nonlinear interactions. In one of the CGCM simulations, an ENSO intensification occurs as a result of a zonal mean thermocline shoaling. Analysis suggests that the atmospheric circulation changes forced by tropical Atlantic SSTs can easily influence the large-scale atmospheric circulation and hence tropical eastern Pacific climate. Furthermore, it is concluded that the existence of the present-day tropical Pacific cold tongue complex and the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific are partly controlled by the strength of the AMOC. The results may have important implications for the interpretation of global multidecadal variability and paleo-proxy data.

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There is a pressing need for good rainfall data for the African continent both for humanitarian and climatological purposes. Given the sparseness of ground-based observations, one source of rainfall information is Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs. The aim of this article is to investigate the quality of two NWP products using Ethiopia as a test case. The two products evaluated are the ERA-40 and NCEP reanalysis rainfall products. Spatial, seasonal and interannual variability of rainfall have been evaluated for Kiremt (JJAS) and Belg (FMAM) seasons at a spatial scale that reflects the local variability of the rainfall climate using a method which makes optimum use of sparse gauge validation data. We found that the spatial pattern of the rainfall climatology is captured well by both models especially for the main rainy season Kiremt. However, both models tend to overestimate the mean rainfall in the northwest, west and central regions but underestimate in the south and east. The overestimation is greater for NCEP in Belg season and greater for ERA-40 in Kiremt Season. ERA-40 captures the annual cycle over most of the country better than NCEP, but strongly exaggerates the Kiremt peak in the northwest and west. The overestimation in Kiremt appears to have been reduced since the assimilation of satellite data increased around 1990. For both models the interannual variability is less well captured than the spatial and seasonal variability. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

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Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

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Unlike most domestic livestock species, sheep are widely known as an animal with marked seasonality of breeding activity. The annual cycle of daily photoperiod has been identified as the determinant factor of this phenomenon, while environmental temperature, nutritional status, social interactions, lambing date and lactation period are considered to modulate it. The aim of this paper is to review the current state of knowledge of the reproductive seasonality in sheep. Following general considerations concerning the importance of seasonal breeding as a reproductive strategy for the survival of species, the paper describes the manifestations of seasonality in both the ram and the ewe. Both determinant and modulating factors are developed and special emphasis is given to the neuroendocrine base of photoperiodic regulation of seasonal breeding. Other aspects such as the role of melatonin, the involvement of thyroid hormones and the concept of photorefractoriness are also reviewed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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The climatology of a stratosphere-resolving version of the Met Office’s climate model is studied and validated against ECMWF reanalysis data. Ensemble integrations are carried out at two different horizontal resolutions. Along with a realistic climatology and annual cycle in zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, several physical effects are noted in the model. The time of final warming of the winter polar vortex is found to descend monotonically in the Southern Hemisphere, as would be expected for purely radiative forcing. In the Northern Hemisphere, however, the time of final warming is driven largely by dynamical effects in the lower stratosphere and radiative effects in the upper stratosphere, leading to the earliest transition to westward winds being seen in the midstratosphere. A realistic annual cycle in stratospheric water vapor concentrations—the tropical “tape recorder”—is captured. Tropical variability in the zonal mean zonal wind is found to be in better agreement with the reanalysis for the model run at higher horizontal resolution because the simulated quasi-biennial oscillation has a more realistic amplitude. Unexpectedly, variability in the extratropics becomes less realistic under increased resolution because of reduced resolved wave drag and increased orographic gravity wave drag. Overall, the differences in climatology between the simulations at high and moderate horizontal resolution are found to be small.

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We compare the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as simulated by the coupled climate models of the RAPID project, which cover a wide range of resolution and complexity, and observed by the RAPID/MOCHA array at about 26N. We analyse variability on a range of timescales. In models of all resolutions there is substantial variability on timescales of a few days; in most AOGCMs the amplitude of the variability is of somewhat larger magnitude than that observed by the RAPID array, while the amplitude of the simulated annual cycle is similar to observations. A dynamical decomposition shows that in the models, as in observations, the AMOC is predominantly geostrophic (driven by pressure and sea-level gradients), with both geostrophic and Ekman contributions to variability, the latter being exaggerated and the former underrepresented in models. Other ageostrophic terms, neglected in the observational estimate, are small but not negligible. In many RAPID models and in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), interannual variability of the maximum of the AMOC wherever it lies, which is a commonly used model index, is similar to interannual variability in the AMOC at 26N. Annual volume and heat transport timeseries at the same latitude are well-correlated within 15-45N, indicating the climatic importance of the AMOC. In the RAPID and CMIP3 models, we show that the AMOC is correlated over considerable distances in latitude, but not the whole extent of the north Atlantic; consequently interannual variability of the AMOC at 50N is not well-correlated with the AMOC at 26N.

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The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry‐climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, “metrics” indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long‐standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability.

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We compare the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as simulated by the coupled climate models of the RAPID project, which cover a wide range of resolution and complexity, and observed by the RAPID/MOCHA array at about 26N. We analyse variability on a range of timescales, from five-daily to interannual. In models of all resolutions there is substantial variability on timescales of a few days; in most AOGCMs the amplitude of the variability is of somewhat larger magnitude than that observed by the RAPID array, while the time-mean is within about 10% of the observational estimate. The amplitude of the simulated annual cycle is similar to observations, but the shape of the annual cycle shows a spread among the models. A dynamical decomposition shows that in the models, as in observations, the AMOC is predominantly geostrophic (driven by pressure and sea-level gradients), with both geostrophic and Ekman contributions to variability, the latter being exaggerated and the former underrepresented in models. Other ageostrophic terms, neglected in the observational estimate, are small but not negligible. The time-mean of the western boundary current near the latitude of the RAPID/MOCHA array has a much wider model spread than the AMOC does, indicating large differences among models in the simulation of the wind-driven gyre circulation, and its variability is unrealistically small in the models. In many RAPID models and in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), interannual variability of the maximum of the AMOC wherever it lies, which is a commonly used model index, is similar to interannual variability in the AMOC at 26N. Annual volume and heat transport timeseries at the same latitude are well-correlated within 15--45N, indicating the climatic importance of the AMOC. In the RAPID and CMIP3 models, we show that the AMOC is correlated over considerable distances in latitude, but not the whole extent of the north Atlantic; consequently interannual variability of the AMOC at 50N, where it is particularly relevant to European climate, is not well-correlated with that of the AMOC at 26N, where it is monitored by the RAPID/MOCHA array.

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This study examines the effect of seasonally varying chlorophyll on the climate of the Arabian Sea and South Asian monsoon. The effect of such seasonality on the radiative properties of the upper ocean is often a missing process in coupled general circulation models and its large amplitude in the region makes it a pertinent choice for study to determine any impact on systematic biases in the mean and seasonality of the Arabian Sea. In this study we examine the effects of incorporating a seasonal cycle in chlorophyll due to phytoplankton blooms in the UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM HadCM3. This is achieved by performing experiments in which the optical properties of water in the Arabian Sea - a key signal of the semi-annual cycle of phytoplankton blooms in the region - are calculated from a chlorophyll climatology derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll is prescribed in annual mean and seasonally-varying experiments. In response to the chlorophyll bloom in late spring, biases in mixed layer depth are reduced by up to 50% and the surface is warmed, leading to increases in monsoon rainfall during the onset period. However when the monsoons are fully established in boreal winter and summer and there are strong surface winds and a deep mixed layer, biases in the mixed layer depth are reduced but the surface undergoes cooling. The seasonality of the response of SST to chlorophyll is found to depend on the relative depth of the mixed layer to that of the anomalous penetration depth of solar fluxes. Thus the inclusion of the effects of chlorophyll on radiative properties of the upper ocean acts to reduce biases in mixed layer depth and increase seasonality in SST.