Urban retrofitting: identifying disruptive and sustaining technologies using performative and foresight techniques

Cities, which are now inhabited by a majority of the world's population, are not only an important source of global environmental and resource depletion problems, but can also act as important centres of technological innovation and social learning in the continuing quest for a low carbon future. Planning and managing large-scale transitions in cities to deal with these pressures require an understanding of urban retrofitting at city scale. In this context performative techniques (such as backcasting and roadmapping) can provide valuable tools for helping cities develop a strategic view of the future. However, it is also important to identify ‘disruptive’ and ‘sustaining’ technologies which may contribute to city-based sustainability transitions. This paper presents research findings from the EPSRC Retrofit 2050 project, and explores the relationship between technology roadmaps and transition theory literature, highlighting the research gaps at urban/city level. The paper develops a research methodology to describe the development of three guiding visions for city-regional retrofit futures, and identifies key sustaining and disruptive technologies at city scale within these visions using foresight (horizon scanning) techniques. The implications of the research for city-based transition studies and related methodologies are discussed.

An investigation into the impact of using various techniques to estimate Arctic surface air temperature anomalies

Time series of global and regional mean Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies are a common metric used to estimate recent climate change. Various techniques can be used to create these time series from meteorological station data. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques relative to the reanalysis reference. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in estimates of Arctic anomalies and Simple Kriging was often the best kriging method in this study, especially over sea ice. A linear interpolation technique had, on average, Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) up to 0.55 K larger than the two kriging techniques tested. Non-interpolating techniques provided the least representative anomaly estimates. Nonetheless, they serve as useful checks for confirming whether estimates from interpolating techniques are reasonable. The interaction of meteorological station coverage with estimation techniques between 1850 and 2011 was simulated using an ensemble dataset comprising repeated individual years (1979-2011). All techniques were found to have larger RMSEs for earlier station coverages. This supports calls for increased data sharing and data rescue, especially in sparsely observed regions such as the Arctic.

The Potential Of Kohonen Method For Classifying Rivers Focused On Regional Environmental Flow Determination With ELOHA

This article highlights the potential benefits that the Kohonen method has for the classification of rivers with similar characteristics by determining regional ecological flows using the ELOHA (Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration) methodology. Currently, there are many methodologies for the classification of rivers, however none of them include the characteristics found in Kohonen method such as (i) providing the number of groups that actually underlie the information presented, (ii) used to make variable importance analysis, (iii) which in any case can display two-dimensional classification process, and (iv) that regardless of the parameters used in the model the clustering structure remains. In order to evaluate the potential benefits of the Kohonen method, 174 flow stations distributed along the great river basin “Magdalena-Cauca” (Colombia) were analyzed. 73 variables were obtained for the classification process in each case. Six trials were done using different combinations of variables and the results were validated against reference classification obtained by Ingfocol in 2010, whose results were also framed using ELOHA guidelines. In the process of validation it was found that two of the tested models reproduced a level higher than 80% of the reference classification with the first trial, meaning that more than 80% of the flow stations analyzed in both models formed invariant groups of streams.

Re-framing risk transfer to assess integrative partnership opportunities: the S.A.R. approach and the AIG/BID/CNO regional surety bond facility of 2007

Identificar, compartilhar e gerenciar os riscos de contratar são preocupações que impedem o estabelicmento e a administração das Parcerias Públicos Particulares (PPP). Porem, gerentes das entidades públicas, bancos de formento, construtoras e seguradoras pesquisam e utilizam muitas técnicas para enfrentar a avaliação e gerenciamento dos riscos. A transferência de risco é uma indicação dos chamados benefícios que são inspirados pelos PPP, contudo devido às realidades contratuais e conceptuais, a entidade de cede o risco (o partido público) permanece quase sempre como o portador final do risco. Conseqüentemente, o partido público retem um interesse de resistência na gerência total destes riscos cedidos. Esta dissertação explora alguns defeitos das aproximações comuns a conceituar a gestão de risco no contexto de um PPP. Focalizando os conceitos da interdependência e da reciprocidade e usando na decisão para transferir o risco do projeto, esta dissertação molda a decisão para transferir o risco nos termos das realidades interdependentes de relacionamentos sistemáticos, alargam os conceitos técnicos do risco e da avaliação de risco, considerando o uso reflexivo das diferenças na analise de um estudo de caso. O autor explora estes conceitos em uma análise da decisão de um gerente de risco da empresa de construção civil brasileira Construtora Norberto Odebrecht (ODB) para projetar uma facilidade inovadora da ligação de garantia com Inter-American Development Bank (BID) e uma seguradora, American International Group (AIG), um negócio que ganhe o reconhecimento Trade Finance Magazine’s 2007 deal of the year. O autor mostra que por compreender a transferência de risco nos termos abordados nesta dissertação, um atore que transfere o risco pode identificar e criar mais oportunidades de estabelecer relacionamentos em longo prazo, através dos processos que a literatura atual do PPP ainda não considere. Os resultados devem fornecer contribuições para a pesquisas sobre a transferência do risco do projeto, na cooperação entre organizações e na seleção do sócio do projeto do potencial.

Descentralização administrativa: o caso da coordenação regional de polícia técnica do planalto - BA

O Departamento de Polícia Técnica (DPT) é um órgão da Secretaria de Segurança Pública do Estado da Bahia (SSP/BA), que tem por finalidade gerir os serviços no campo da polícia-técnica-científica, promovendo estudos e realizando exames e outros procedimentos, visando à prova pericial. Possui diversas coordenadorias regionais que recebem suporte das seis coordenações regionais distribuídas pelo interior do Estado. Tais coordenações foram criadas para atender a uma demanda crescente pelos trabalhos periciais ao longo do processo de interiorização da Polícia Técnica pelos municípios baianos. O objetivo do estudo exploratório aqui relatado foi descrever a maneira como o processo de descentralização administrativa se efetivou na Coordenação Regional de Polícia Técnica do Planalto-BA. Para isso, foram adotados os procedimentos de uma pesquisa bibliográfica a fim de aprofundar as definições dos diversos conceitos de centralização, descentralização, concentração e desconcentração, de modo a possibilitar a análise dos principais aspectos e a relevância da descentralização administrativa para a administração pública. Por meio de observação sistemática, foi delineada uma descrição do funcionamento da Coordenação Regional do Planalto-BA e foram empregadas técnicas de entrevista semiestruturada e de aplicação de questionário estruturado fechado para ouvir os dirigentes das coordenadorias vinculadas à Coordenação Regional do Planalto, entre os quais o seu coordenador e as diretorias do DPT. Foram também ouvidos os peritos que laboram nas coordenadorias envolvidas, para colher dados que possibilitaram identificar, dentre as atividades administrativas realizadas pela coordenação, aquelas que apresentam as características da descentralização. Ao final do estudo foi possível concluir que o DPT ainda não alcançou a descentralização que vem almejando desde 2004, processo que iniciou com a interiorização das Coordenadorias Regionais. A pesquisa de campo revelou carências de ordens diversas que resultam em trabalhos incompletos, ineficientes e sem a celeridade que a justiça necessita. Tudo isso aponta para a urgência na elaboração de um estudo aprofundado que tenha como resultado uma proposta de padronização procedimentais e estruturais que tornem efetiva a descentralização do DPT.

Contra as Secas: a engenharia e as origens de um planejamento regional no nordeste brasileiro

Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts

Sympathetic hyperactivity, respiratory failure, pruritus, and anesthesia after unintentional epidural injection of potassium chloride: Case report

Background and Objectives. A combination of epidural and general anesthesia has been widely used to attenuate the surgical stress response and to provide postoperative analgesia. This case report illustrates the use of this anesthetic technique. Analgesia was induced with local anesthetic in the immediate postoperative period using unintentional 19.1% potassium chloride (KCI) as diluent. Methods. An ASA I male patient was scheduled for surgical correction of idiopathic megaesophagus under continuous epidural anesthesia combined with general anesthesia. In the postoperative period, while preparing 10 mt 0.125% bupivacaine to be administered through the epidural catheter for pain control, 5 mt 19.1% KCI was unintentionally used as diluent, resulting in a 9.55% potassium solution concentration. Results. The patient developed warmness of the lower limbs, tachycardia, hypertension, intense pruritus on the chest, agitation, exacerbation of sensory and motor blocks, and respiratory failure secondary to pulmonary edema, requiring ventilatory support. Total recovery was observed after 24 hours. Conclusions. Epidurally injected potassium leads to severe clinical manifestations caused by autonomic dysfunction, spinal cord irritation, and possible release of histamine. Despite continuous recommendations, ampule misidentification still happens in hospitals, frequently leading to serious accidents.

Remote sensing techniques applied to slope failure analysis

The paper evaluates the applicability of products of remote sensing in studies related to the structural conditionings of slope stability in saprolites, usually conducted through field surveys. In this article we use a regional approach concentrating on an area of lane duplication of a major highway. In that area, resistance reduction to stress and the low cohesions of muscovite saprolites - schists and gneiss which are associated to geological discontinuities, all result in inumerous instabilities. The joints and foliations were extracted from satellite images as well as aerial photographs. Following that, the study area was divided into various sectors based on the directions and dips of the foliation. Different relationships between the structures and the slopes were analyzed in order to indicate the most feasible type of slope failure in each sector of analysis. The aim of the study is to subsidize further detailed future research.

Relacoes entre a concentracao espacial dos ramos industriais 'motrizes' e o desenvolvimento regional: o caso do Estado de Sao Paulo.

This paper, having its conceptual basis in the Theory of Growth Poles, by F.Perroux, tests the effective existence of correlation between the spatial incidence and concentration of the 'propulsive' industrial groups and the industrial growth as a whole and the demographic increase. The selected case study was the state of Sao Paulo and data used was the 1970 census. As consequence of the techniques applied a industrial regionalization of the 'paulista' space was obtained, showing few areas of intense industrial concentration, especially of 'propulsive' groups, with multiple growth poles, and large areas with industrial rarefaction, with little or no poles.-after English summary

Marjolin's ulcer in two horses with hereditary equine regional dermal asthenia

Two Quarter Horse mares with hereditary equine regional dermal asthenia (HERDA) were diagnosed with metastatic squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) associated with chronic nonhealing wounds. The lesions were similar to the development of SCC from chronic nonhealing ulcers, known as Marjolin's ulcers in humans. The horses showed recurrent skin wounds in the saddle and paralumbar regions and were confirmed by molecular techniques as having HERDA. Both horses were maintained as research animals for prolonged periods and received regular veterinary care and wound treatment. Both horses were ultimately euthanized because of their chronic progressive wounds, coupled with declining health. At necropsy, the nonhealing wounds were found to be complicated by infiltrative SCC; both horses had metastasis to lungs. Chronically inflamed, recurrent skin wounds that heal slowly and incompletely as a consequence of HERDA are proposed as a major pathogenetic factor in tumorigenesis. Consistent findings with respect to proliferation index (Ki-67) and mutations of p53 tumor suppressor gene were confirmed by immunohistochemistry in one horse. SCC consistent with Marjolin's ulcer has been previously suggested in association with chronic ulcers or burn scars in horses, but this is the first report of an association with chronic poor healing wounds in HERDA horses. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

Regional Climate Modelling In The Caribbean

The information here represents a compilation of existing and ongoing regional and national climate modelling studies that could be useful in the execution of the regional project The Economics of Climate Change in Caribbean. The report is mainly focused on the sustainable regional efforts that represent opportunities for further developments in climate change scenarios. It describes the different techniques that have been used to model changes in temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean and compares the outputs of these models. Essentially, temperatures are expected to increase while precipitation may increase for countries in the more southerly latitudes, but decrease for more northerly countries (Bahamas, Cuba and Hispaniola) resulting in drought. These changes would present tremendous challenges for the Caribbean subregion and, despite significant progress made in recent years, there is a need for continuous development of climate research and modelling in the subregion, to produce more relevant information for regional and national studies and to overcome the limitations of existing results. This may well be realized through coordination of activities between the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) in Cuba and the University of the West Indies (UWI). These activities will address the implementation of further analyses using available information to generate best practices and to produce useful results. There are also new opportunities for climate research in the region with Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) which is planned to start early next year. It is expected that the participation of various Caribbean institutions like INSMET, UWI, CCCC and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology in this global project will allow the generation of new and more abundant information.

Ultrassonografia do espaço intervertebral lombossacro em cães

Pós-graduação em Cirurgia Veterinária - FCAV

Estudo geofísico regional sobre águas subterrâneas na Ilha do Marajó-Pará-Brasil

Nos últimos dez anos foram realizadas na parte leste da Ilha de Marajó (região dos campos naturais) pelo IDESP e NCGG, mais de 800 SEVs para fins hidrogeológicos. Na época, grande parte dessas SEVs não foram totalmente interpretadas em forma quantitativa, devido à falta de recursos técnicos para fazê-lo de forma eficiente. Agora, usando meios mais modernos para interpretação automática de SEVs, voltou-se a interpretá-las com a finalidade de apresentar uma visão regional dos principais aquíferos da área, agrupar as SEVs em famílias características, testar até que ponto essa interpretação é confiável e propor o modelamento bidimensional como técnica alternativa para interpretar as SEVs realizadas em certos locais da área em questão. Como resultado dessa interpretação, com base na teoria convencional dos meios estratificados, foram definidos três tipos de sistemas de aquíferos. 1. O primeiro, denominado de aquífero profundo, situado a profundidades maiores que 50m, estende-se por toda a região prospectada, estando provavelmente associada às camadas superiores da Formação Marajó ou às litologias altamente resistivas das camadas mais profundas do Grupo Pará. 2. O segundo, denominado de aquífero raso e de média profundidade, localiza-se na parte sul e sudeste da região a profundidades compreendidas entre 10 a 50m, e está associado às lentes arenosas do Grupo Pará. 3. O terceiro, é constituído pelos paleocanais e estruturas similares, distribuídos aleatoriamente na região a pouca profundidade. A partir do estudo detalhado das SEVs, decidiu-se classificá-las em 3 famílias características com seus respectivos tipos e apresentar mapas de localização e da espessura dos aquíferos, bem como mapas de condutância longitudinal total e resistividade média da área. Estes últimos, permitem que se divida a região dos campos da Ilha de Marajó em três zonas principais: 1. Uma, altamente resistiva, situada ao sul e sudeste, a qual coincide com os terrenos aflorantes do Grupo Pará. 2. Outra, altamente condutiva, está localizada no centro e norte, onde se encontram aleatoriamente distribuídos os paleocanais e coincide com os terrenos topograficamente mais baixos, geralmente argilosos e embebidos de água salgada, que são procedentes da erosão dos terrenos circundantes topograficamente mais altos. 3. A última é medianamente resistiva e está relacionada com os terrenos vizinhos à cidade de Chaves (noroeste da região dos campos), os quais apresentam semelhanças com os do sul e sudeste da área. Usando-se a técnica de inversão na interpretação de uma SEV característica de cada família, testou-se, através do seu tratamento estatístico, até que ponto os modelos usados na interpretação dessas SEVs (teoria convencional dos meios estratificados) seriam confiáveis. Conclui-se, então, que a alta correlação existente entre os parâmetros dos modelos assumidos (camadas horizontais, isotrópicas e homogêneas) pode-se dever à utilização de modelos geofísicos muito simples para interpretar a complexa geologia de Marajó. Tendo-se verificado que nem sempre é possível aplicar a teoria das SEVs em meios horizontalmente estratificados para interpretar SEVs obtidas em certos locais de Marajó, os quais muitas vezes apresentam bruscas variações laterais de resistividade, passou-se a demonstrar que estas variações laterais afetam profundamente os dados das SEVs, utilizando-se para isto a técnica dos elementos finitos, a qual leva em conta essa variação bidimensional das propriedades físicas do meio. Foi também possível com esta técnica, modelar uma estrutura rasa, semelhante a um paleocanal, concluindo-se que estes resultados sugerem o emprego, duma forma mais profunda, deste tipo de tratamento para os dados obtidos na região dos campos da Ilha de Marajó.

Densidade técnica e especialização regional produtiva: as dinâmicas de produção de celulose no Vale do Paraíba Paulista

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Participação de gambás e cães domiciliados como reservatórios de Leishmania infantum e Trypanosoma cruzi georreferenciados nos municípios da Regional de Saúde de Três Lagoas - MS

Pós-graduação em Doenças Tropicais - FMB