Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Late bloomer or language impaired? Screening the speech of a Spanish-English bilingual toddler for early signs of language impairment

This case study presents corpus data gathered from a Spanish-English bilingual child with expressive language delay. Longitudinal data on the child’s linguistic development was collected from the onset of productive speech at age 1;1 until age 4 over the course of 28 video-taped sessions with the child’s principal caregivers. A literature review focused on the relationship between language delay and persisting disorders—including a discussion of the frequent difficulty in distinguishing between the two at early stages of bilingual development—is followed by an analysis of the child’s productive development in 2 distinct phases. An attempt is made to assess the child’s speech at age 4 for preliminary signs of SLI and to consider techniques for identifying ‘at risk’ bilingual children (that is, those with productive language delay, poor oral fluency, and family history of language problems) based on samples of recorded and transcribed speech.

The biased balance: Observation, formalism and interpretation of a dissymmetric measuring device

This paper studies a balance whose unobservable fulcrum is not necessarilylocated at the middle of its two pans. It presents three differentmodels, showing how this lack of symmetry modifies the observation, theformalism and the interpretation of such a biased measuring device. Itargues that the biased balance can be an interesting source of inspirationfor broadening the representational theory of measurement.

The domain and interpretation of utility functions: An exploration

This paper proposes an exploration of the methodology of utilityfunctions that distinguishes interpretation from representation. Whilerepresentation univocally assigns numbers to the entities of the domainof utility functions, interpretation relates these entities withempirically observable objects of choice. This allows us to makeexplicit the standard interpretation of utility functions which assumesthat two objects have the same utility if and only if the individual isindifferent among them. We explore the underlying assumptions of suchan hypothesis and propose a non-standard interpretation according towhich objects of choice have a well-defined utility although individualsmay vary in the way they treat these objects in a specific context.We provide examples of such a methodological approach that may explainsome reversal of preferences and suggest possible mathematicalformulations for further research.

Interpretation of paleoceanographic conditions on the Peru shelf using paleoecology and geochemistry

Analisa una serie de sedimentos geoquimicos de nueve muestras colectadas a lo largo del recorrido de Panamá.

Interpretation of needle biopsies of the kidney for investigation of renal masses.

The development of new therapeutic options for renal tumors has lead to the need of a pretherapeutic diagnosis for an increasing proportion of patients presenting with a renal mass. This need is particularly important for a small, incidentally discovered renal mass (less than 4 cm) as it can be a benign lesion in a significant percentage of cases. Recent studies have shown that needle biopsy is an accurate and safe method allowing for a precise histopathological diagnosis of the mass in most cases. The aims of the biopsy are (1) to assess the benign or malignant nature of the lesion, (2) to assess the primary or secondary nature of the lesion, and (3), in case of a primary malignancy, to determine histological prognostic factors, such as the tumor type. This review, based on the most recent literature and our own experience, is intended to provide a practical approach to the diagnosis, relying on appropriate morphologic assessment and the use of immunohistochemistry.

Interpretation of plasma amino acids in the follow-up of patients: the impact of compartmentation

Results of plasma or urinary amino acids are used for suspicion, confirmation or exclusion of diagnosis, monitoring of treatment, prevention and prognosis in inborn errors of amino acid metabolism. The concentrations in plasma or whole blood do not necessarily reflect the relevant metabolite concentrations in organs such as the brain or in cell compartments; this is especially the case in disorders that are not solely expressed in liver and/or in those which also affect nonessential amino acids. Basic biochemical knowledge has added much to the understanding of zonation and compartmentation of expressed proteins and metabolites in organs, cells and cell organelles. In this paper, selected old and new biochemical findings in PKU, urea cycle disorders and nonketotic hyperglycinaemia are reviewed; the aim is to show that integrating the knowledge gained in the last decades on enzymes and transporters related to amino acid metabolism allows a more extensive interpretation of biochemical results obtained for diagnosis and follow-up of patients and may help to pose new questions and to avoid pitfalls. The analysis and interpretation of amino acid measurements in physiological fluids should not be restricted to a few amino acids but should encompass the whole quantitative profile and include other pathophysiological markers. This is important if the patient appears not to respond as expected to treatment and is needed when investigating new therapies. We suggest that amino acid imbalance in the relevant compartments caused by over-zealous or protocol-driven treatment that is not adjusted to the individual patient's needs may prolong catabolism and must be corrected

Side scan sonar image and geologic interpretation of the Ria de Pontevedra seafloor (Galicia, NW Spain).

High-resolution side scan sonar has been used for mapping the seafloor of the Ría de Pontevedra. Four backscatter patterns have been mapped within the Ría: (1) Pattern with isolated reflections, correlated with granite and metamorphic outcrops and located close to the coastal prominence and Ons and Onza Islands. (2) Pattern of strong reflectivity usually located around the basement outcrops and near the coastline and produced by coarse-grained sediment. (3) Pattern of weak backscatter is correlated with fine sand to mud and comprising large areas in the central and deep part of the Ría, where the bottom currents are weak. It is generally featureless, except where pockmarks and anthropogenic features are present. (4) Patches of strong and weak backscatter are located in the boundary between coarse and fine-grained sediments and they are due to the effect of strong bottom currents. The presence of megaripples associated to both patterns of strong reflectivity and sedimentary patches indicate bedload transport of sediment during high energy conditions (storms). Side scan sonar records and supplementary bathymetry, bottom samples and hydrodynamic data reveal that the distribution of seafloor sediment is strongly related to oceanographic processes and the particular morphology and topography of the Ría.

MADAP, a flexible clustering tool for the interpretation of one-dimensional genome annotation data.

A recurring task in the analysis of mass genome annotation data from high-throughput technologies is the identification of peaks or clusters in a noisy signal profile. Examples of such applications are the definition of promoters on the basis of transcription start site profiles, the mapping of transcription factor binding sites based on ChIP-chip data and the identification of quantitative trait loci (QTL) from whole genome SNP profiles. Input to such an analysis is a set of genome coordinates associated with counts or intensities. The output consists of a discrete number of peaks with respective volumes, extensions and center positions. We have developed for this purpose a flexible one-dimensional clustering tool, called MADAP, which we make available as a web server and as standalone program. A set of parameters enables the user to customize the procedure to a specific problem. The web server, which returns results in textual and graphical form, is useful for small to medium-scale applications, as well as for evaluation and parameter tuning in view of large-scale applications, requiring a local installation. The program written in C++ can be freely downloaded from ftp://ftp.epd.unil.ch/pub/software/unix/madap. The MADAP web server can be accessed at http://www.isrec.isb-sib.ch/madap/.

Fertilization response likelihood for the interpretation of leaf analyses

Leaf analysis is the chemical evaluation of the nutritional status where the nutrient concentrations found in the tissue reflect the nutritional status of the plants. Thus, a correct interpretation of the results of leaf analysis is fundamental for an effective use of this tool. The purpose of this study was to propose and compare the method of Fertilization Response Likelihood (FRL) for interpretation of leaf analysis with that of the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS). The database consisted of 157 analyses of the N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, and B concentrations in coffee leaves, which were divided into two groups: low yield (< 30 bags ha-1) and high yield (> 30 bags ha-1). The DRIS indices were calculated using the method proposed by Jones (1981). The fertilization response likelihood was computed based on the approximation of normal distribution. It was found that the Fertilization Response Likelihood (FRL) allowed an evaluation of the nutritional status of coffee trees, coinciding with the DRIS-based diagnoses in 84.96 % of the crops.