Group preference structures in AHP–group decision making

This paper presents a procedure that allows us to determine the preference structures(PS) associated to each of the different groups of actors that can be identified in a groupdecision making problem with a large number of individuals. To that end, it makesuse of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty, 1980) as the technique to solvediscrete multicriteria decision making problems. This technique permits the resolutionof multicriteria, multienvironment and multiactor problems in which subjective aspectsand uncertainty have been incorporated into the model, constructing ratio scales correspondingto the priorities relative to the elements being compared, normalised in adistributive manner (wi = 1). On the basis of the individuals’ priorities we identifydifferent clusters for the decision makers and, for each of these, the associated preferencestructure using, to that end, tools analogous to those of Multidimensional Scaling.The resulting PS will be employed to extract knowledge for the subsequent negotiationprocesses and, should it be necessary, to determine the relative importance of thealternatives being compared using anyone of the existing procedures

Defining the location factors of new manufacturing site in chemical industry

The objective of this thesis is to examine the factors that have an impact on the location decision of new manufacturing site and to create the relative order of importance of these factors by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The decision making process especially related to the location selection and the measurement of the location factors are also examined. In theoretical part the character of decision making process and the relevant methods are introduced. Based on the previous studies of other researchers, the location factors are examined and the main research method, analytic hierarchy process, is also introduced. The empirical part of the study mainly follows the phases of decision making process and is emphasized on the main stages of analytic hierarchy process; building the hierarchy, defining the priorities and analyzing the results. The hierarchy is constructed from seven main criteria which all have several sub criteria. The evaluation of the hierarchy is implemented at the group decision making –laboratory and there can be seen significant differences between the importance of criteria. The final stage in the study is to create the appropriate measurement scales to the chosen criteria.

Päätöksenteon tukeminen kaivosalan yrityksen toiminnanohjausjärjestelmäratkaisun valinnassa

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia kohdeyrityksen toiminnanohjaukseen sovellettujen tietojärjestelmien nykytilaa ja pyrkiä tunnistamaan siinä vaikuttavia, kehittämistä vaativia kohteita. Nykytilan kartoituksen perusteella työssä oli määrä laatia vertailu liiketoiminnan ohjaamiseen soveltuvien vaihtoehtoisten järjestelmäratkaisuiden välillä. Perusteellisen selvitystyön ja vaihtoehtojen vertailun avulla pyrittiin tuottamaan päätöksentekoa helpottavaa materiaalia kohdeyrityksen toiminnanohjausjärjestelmäratkaisun valinnan tueksi. Keskeisimpinä menetelminä tutkimuksessa hyödynnettiin asiakaskeskeistä toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöönottomenetelmää C-CEI:tä sekä analyyttistä hierarkiaprosessia AHP:tä. Tutkimuksen perusteella havaittiin, että onnistunut tietojärjestelmäratkaisun valinta edellyttää perusteellista liiketoiminnan nykytilan selvitystä. Yritysten on myös tärkeää tiedostaa, että tällaisiin monikriteerisiin ja hankaliin päätöksentekotilanteisiin on olemassa useita erilaisia päätöksenteon tukimenetelmiä, joiden avulla päätöksenteon ongelmaa kyetään selkeyttämään ja siten helpottamaan ratkaisun löytämistä.

Modulointia ohjaavien tekijöiden valinta asiakkaiden, tuotekehityksen ja valmistuksen vaatimusten perusteella

Modular drivers cover the entire product life cycle and when the most important modular drivers are known, it is possible to focus on the most essential areas in modularization. Modular drivers are helpful while planning modularization, selecting modules to manufacture and evaluating the success of the modularization. When the modules are formed based on the modular drivers it is also possible to develop production processes according to the requirements of a certain module. The objective of the Master’s Thesis was to organize the modular drivers based on the weightings in order to make the modularization process easier. The phases to find the most important module drivers were formed based on the existing literature and background material from the company. During the Master’s Thesis project the weights of the modular drivers were determined according to the requirements of customers, product development and manufacturing. The requirements were established by a questionnaire and the weights for the requirements were selected in an interview using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The modular drivers were compared pairwise by the view point of the requirements of certain group. When the results of the three groups were integrated, the weights of the modular drivers were found and it was possible to select the most important drivers.

Definição de áreas prioritárias ao uso público no parque estadual da Cachoeira da Fumaça - ES, utilizando geoprocessamento

O Parque Estadual da Cachoeira da Fumaça (PECF) está localizado entre os municípios de Alegre e Ibitirama, no sul do Estado do Espírito Santo, possuindo área aproximada de 162,50 hectares. Levando-se em consideração a importância ambiental do PECF para o Estado do Espírito Santo, a necessidade de proteção dos ecossistemas da Mata Atlântica e suas formações associadas, bem como o aprimoramento das técnicas de gestão, este trabalho teve por objetivo propor subsídios aos gestores, através da geração de um mapa de adequabilidade com áreas prioritárias ao uso público, utilizando análise multicritério e lógica fuzzy. Os materiais utilizados foram: Ortofoto do ES, mapa de curvas de nível obtido do Geobases e para coleta de dados em campo utilizou-se GPS diferencial. Os fatores relevantes para avaliação dos aspectos relacionados ao ecoturismo que foram utilizados para produzir os mapas de adequabilidade, seguindo uma ordem de prioridade estabelecida pelo método Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) foram: fator cachoeira, uso dos solos, massa de água (contendo os rios), trilhas, locais de acessos, estruturas e declividade. Após a combinação dos fatores, foi gerado o mapa de adequabilidade para uso público, com superfície de adequabilidade mostrando a aptidão e representando o zoneamento da área do PECF para o objetivo proposto. A partir do zoneamento da Unidade de Conservação foi possível mostrar as áreas com diferentes graus de aptidão ao ecoturismo de acordo com suas distâncias da cachoeira, trilhas, e da área de Mata Atlântica.

Estimating the most important criteria for hatching eggs as function of broiler breeders age

This research aimed to compare two female broiler breeder ages during the incubation period regarding management using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method (AHP). This method is characterized by the possibility of analyzing a multicriteria problem and assists a decision making. This study was carried out on a commercial hatchery located in São Paulo, Brazil. Two ages of broiler breeder (42 and 56 weeks) were compared relative to production rate. Production index data were the same in both ages and were submitted to multicriteria decision analysis using the AHP method. The results indicate that broiler breeders of 42 weeks presented better performance than those of 56 week-old. The setter phase (incubation) is more critical than the hatcher. The AHP method was efficient for this analysis and can serve as a methodological basis for future studies to improve the hatchability of broilers eggs.

Comparative analysis of different meat traceability systems using multiple criteria and a social network approach

The adoption of a proper traceability system is being incorporated into meat production practices as a method of gaining consumer confidence. The various partners operating in the chain of meat production can be considered a social network, and they have the common goal of generating a communication process that can ensure each characteristic of the product, including safety. This study aimed to select the most appropriate meat traceability system “from farm to fork” that could be applied to Brazilian beef and pork production for international trade. The research was done in three steps. The first used the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for selecting the best on-farm livestock traceability. In the second step, the actors in the meat production chain were identified to build a framework and defined each role in the network. In the third step, the selection of the traceability system was done. Results indicated that with an electronic traceability system, it is possible to acquire better connections between the links in the chain and to provide the means for managing uncertainties by creating structures that facilitate information flow more efficiently.

IT Investment Portfolio Management Over Joint Ventures: Case Study in a Multinational Oil & Gas Company

With information technology (IT) playing an increasing important role in driving the business, the value of IT investment is often challenged because not all of those investment decisions are made in a reasonable way or aligned with business strategies. IT investment portfolio management (PfM) is an effective way to prioritize and select the right IT projects to invest in, by taking all the project proposals into consideration as a whole, based on their business value, risks, costs, and interrelationships. There are different decision models to prioritise projects, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most commonly-used methods and is discussed in this master thesis. At the same time, there are IT projects on different levels for a multinational company, from global to local. For instance, many of them are probably proposed by joint ventures on local level. In the oil & gas industry, joint ventures are often formed especially in the area of the upstream (exploration & production). How to involve those projects into the IT investment PfM approach of the parent company is a challenge, because the parent company cannot make the decisions on its own. It needs to prioritize all projects in an adequate way, communicate with JVs and influence them. Also, different control levels on JVs need to be considered. This paper hence attempts to introduce a tailored approach of IT investment PfM for a multinational oil & gas company to address the issues around JVs.

Exploring the value creation in service ecosystem context: the case of the information technology sector

This thesis examines customer value creation in a service ecosystem context. The objective of this thesis is to develop a comprehensive view of value creation processes in a service ecosystem context and an understanding on the roles of the stakeholders involved in these processes, focusing on the information technology industry. The novelty of the two central concepts of this thesis, systemic customer value and service ecosystem, as well as the gap in the literature of empirical research on value creation in an ecosystem-level, opened an interesting research topic. The empirical study is conducted as a single case analysis, utilizing Group Decision Support System (GDSS) and also Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The findings suggest that customer value is created by a complex combination of interactions among different actors of the ecosystem. Thus, value is not created by a single offering directed to the customer, but by an integration of services from different parts of the ecosystem as well as the active participation of customer in this process.

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis for the siting of on-shore wind power in Kemiönsaari

Wind power is a low-carbon energy production form that reduces the dependence of society on fossil fuels. Finland has adopted wind energy production into its climate change mitigation policy, and that has lead to changes in legislation, guidelines, regional wind power areas allocation and establishing a feed-in tariff. Wind power production has indeed boosted in Finland after two decades of relatively slow growth, for instance from 2010 to 2011 wind energy production increased with 64 %, but there is still a long way to the national goal of 6 TWh by 2020. This thesis introduces a GIS-based decision-support methodology for the preliminary identification of suitable areas for wind energy production including estimation of their level of risk. The goal of this study was to define the least risky places for wind energy development within Kemiönsaari municipality in Southwest Finland. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) has been used for searching suitable wind power areas along with many other location-allocation problems. SMCDA scrutinizes complex ill-structured decision problems in GIS environment using constraints and evaluation criteria, which are aggregated using weighted linear combination (WLC). Weights for the evaluation criteria were acquired using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with nine expert interviews. Subsequently, feasible alternatives were ranked in order to provide a recommendation and finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the determination of recommendation robustness. The first study aim was to scrutinize the suitability and necessity of existing data for this SMCDA study. Most of the available data sets were of sufficient resolution and quality. Input data necessity was evaluated qualitatively for each data set based on e.g. constraint coverage and attribute weights. Attribute quality was estimated mainly qualitatively by attribute comprehensiveness, operationality, measurability, completeness, decomposability, minimality and redundancy. The most significant quality issue was redundancy as interdependencies are not tolerated by WLC and AHP does not include measures to detect them. The third aim was to define the least risky areas for wind power development within the study area. The two highest ranking areas were Nordanå-Lövböle and Påvalsby followed by Helgeboda, Degerdal, Pungböle, Björkboda, and Östanå-Labböle. The fourth aim was to assess the recommendation reliability, and the top-ranking two areas proved robust whereas the other ones were more sensitive.

Carrier selection and management : A case study on Neste Oil Retail

Service provider selection has been said to be a critical factor in the formation of supply chains. Through successful selection companies can attain competitive advantage, cost savings and more flexible operations. Service provider management is the next crucial step in outsourcing process after the selection has been made. Without proper management companies cannot be sure about the level of service they have bought and they may suffer from service provider's opportunistic behavior. In worst case scenario the buyer company may end up in locked-in situation in which it is totally dependent of the service provider. This thesis studies how the case company conducts its carrier selection process along with the criteria related to it. A model for the final selection is also provided. In addition, case company's carrier management procedures are reflected against recommendations from previous researches. The research was conducted as a qualitative case study on the principal company, Neste Oil Retail. A literature review was made on outsourcing, service provider selection and service provider management. On the basis of the literature review, this thesis ended up recommending Analytic hierarchy process as the preferred model for the carrier selection. Furthermore, Agency theory was seen to be a functional framework for carrier management in this study. Empirical part of this thesis was conducted in the case company by interviewing the key persons in the selection process, making observations and going through documentations related to the subject. According to the results from the study, both carrier selection process as well as carrier management were closely in line with suggestions from literature review. Analytic hierarchy process results revealed that the case company considers service quality as the most important criteria with financial situation and price of service following behind with almost identical weights with each other. Equipment and personnel was seen as the least important selection criterion. Regarding carrier management, the study resulted in the conclusion that the company should consider engaging more in carrier development and working towards beneficial and effective relationships. Otherwise, no major changes were recommended for the case company processes.

Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

Detecting Deceit – Guessing or Assessing? Study on the Applicability of Veracity Assessment Methods in Human Intelligence

Intelligence from a human source, that is falsely thought to be true, is potentially more harmful than a total lack of it. The veracity assessment of the gathered intelligence is one of the most important phases of the intelligence process. Lie detection and veracity assessment methods have been studied widely but a comprehensive analysis of these methods’ applicability is lacking. There are some problems related to the efficacy of lie detection and veracity assessment. According to a conventional belief an almighty lie detection method, that is almost 100% accurate and suitable for any social encounter, exists. However, scientific studies have shown that this is not the case, and popular approaches are often over simplified. The main research question of this study was: What is the applicability of veracity assessment methods, which are reliable and are based on scientific proof, in terms of the following criteria? o Accuracy, i.e. probability of detecting deception successfully o Ease of Use, i.e. easiness to apply the method correctly o Time Required to apply the method reliably o No Need for Special Equipment o Unobtrusiveness of the method In order to get an answer to the main research question, the following supporting research questions were answered first: What kinds of interviewing and interrogation techniques exist and how could they be used in the intelligence interview context, what kinds of lie detection and veracity assessment methods exist that are reliable and are based on scientific proof and what kind of uncertainty and other limitations are included in these methods? Two major databases, Google Scholar and Science Direct, were used to search and collect existing topic related studies and other papers. After the search phase, the understanding of the existing lie detection and veracity assessment methods was established through a meta-analysis. Multi Criteria Analysis utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted to compare scientifically valid lie detection and veracity assessment methods in terms of the assessment criteria. In addition, a field study was arranged to get a firsthand experience of the applicability of different lie detection and veracity assessment methods. The Studied Features of Discourse and the Studied Features of Nonverbal Communication gained the highest ranking in overall applicability. They were assessed to be the easiest and fastest to apply, and to have required temporal and contextual sensitivity. The Plausibility and Inner Logic of the Statement, the Method for Assessing the Credibility of Evidence and the Criteria Based Content Analysis were also found to be useful, but with some limitations. The Discourse Analysis and the Polygraph were assessed to be the least applicable. Results from the field study support these findings. However, it was also discovered that the most applicable methods are not entirely troublefree either. In addition, this study highlighted that three channels of information, Content, Discourse and Nonverbal Communication, can be subjected to veracity assessment methods that are scientifically defensible. There is at least one reliable and applicable veracity assessment method for each of the three channels. All of the methods require disciplined application and a scientific working approach. There are no quick gains if high accuracy and reliability is desired. Since most of the current lie detection studies are concentrated around a scenario, where roughly half of the assessed people are totally truthful and the other half are liars who present a well prepared cover story, it is proposed that in future studies lie detection and veracity assessment methods are tested against partially truthful human sources. This kind of test setup would highlight new challenges and opportunities for the use of existing and widely studied lie detection methods, as well as for the modern ones that are still under development.

Finding Methods for Recognizing and Classifying Spare Part Criticality – Case Full Deposit Stripping Machines

The aim of this Master’s thesis is to find a method for classifying spare part criticality in the case company. Several approaches exist for criticality classification of spare parts. The practical problem in this thesis is the lack of a generic analysis method for classifying spare parts of proprietary equipment of the case company. In order to find a classification method, a literature review of various analysis methods is required. The requirements of the case company also have to be recognized. This is achieved by consulting professionals in the company. The literature review states that the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with decision tree models is a common method for classifying spare parts in academic literature. Most of the literature discusses spare part criticality in stock holding perspective. This is relevant perspective also for a customer orientated original equipment manufacturer (OEM), as the case company. A decision tree model is developed for classifying spare parts. The decision tree classifies spare parts into five criticality classes according to five criteria. The criteria are: safety risk, availability risk, functional criticality, predictability of failure and probability of failure. The criticality classes describe the level of criticality from non-critical to highly critical. The method is verified for classifying spare parts of a full deposit stripping machine. The classification can be utilized as a generic model for recognizing critical spare parts of other similar equipment, according to which spare part recommendations can be created. Purchase price of an item and equipment criticality were found to have no effect on spare part criticality in this context. Decision tree is recognized as the most suitable method for classifying spare part criticality in the company.

Uuden muoviteollisuustuotteen kehittäminen analyyttista hierarkiaprosessia hyödyntäen

Tämä diplomityö on tehty case yritykselle nimeltä yritys X. Yritys X valmistaa alueelliseen lämmön- ja käyttöveden jakamiseen tarkoitettuja eristettyjä muoviputkia. Viime vuosina yrityksen kilpailijat ovat onnistuneet kehittämään omien vastaavien tuotteidensa ominaisuuksia, minkä seurauksena yritys X:n asema markkinoilla on heikentynyt. Vastauksena kiristyneeseen markkinatilanteeseen yritys X on kehittänyt kolme uutta potentiaalista tuotekonseptia, joista yhtä suunnitellaan kehitettäväksi nykyisen tuotteen rinnalle. Uusien tuotekonseptien keskinäinen vertailu on kuitenkin osoittautunut haasteelliseksi. Tämän työn päätavoitteena on hyödyntää analyyttista hierarkiaprosessia ja antaa sen perusteella suositus parhaan tuotekonseptin valinnasta. Työ sisältää kirjallisen osion, jossa käydään läpi tuotekehitystoimintaa yleisesti sekä esitellään analyyttisen hierarkiaprosessin hyödyntäminen yksityiskohtaisesti. Työn jälkimmäisessä osiossa paneudutaan tarkemmin käytännön ongelmaan ja esitellään kuinka analyyttista hierarkiaprosessia on hyödynnetty yritys X:n tapauksessa. Keskeisinä tuloksina työn lopussa esitellään analyyttisen hierarkiaprosessin avulla määritetyt päätöskriteerien painoarvot, vaihtoehtojen saamat kokonaispainoarvot sekä annetaan suositus uuden tuotekonseptin valinnasta.