Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.

Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean–sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project

Ocean–sea ice reanalyses are crucial for assessing the variability and recent trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. This is especially true for sea ice volume, as long-term and large scale sea ice thickness observations are inexistent. Results from the Ocean ReAnalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP) are presented, with a focus on Arctic sea ice fields reconstructed by state-of-the-art global ocean reanalyses. Differences between the various reanalyses are explored in terms of the effects of data assimilation, model physics and atmospheric forcing on properties of the sea ice cover, including concentration, thickness, velocity and snow. Amongst the 14 reanalyses studied here, 9 assimilate sea ice concentration, and none assimilate sea ice thickness data. The comparison reveals an overall agreement in the reconstructed concentration fields, mainly because of the constraints in surface temperature imposed by direct assimilation of ocean observations, prescribed or assimilated atmospheric forcing and assimilation of sea ice concentration. However, some spread still exists amongst the reanalyses, due to a variety of factors. In particular, a large spread in sea ice thickness is found within the ensemble of reanalyses, partially caused by the biases inherited from their sea ice model components. Biases are also affected by the assimilation of sea ice concentration and the treatment of sea ice thickness in the data assimilation process. An important outcome of this study is that the spatial distribution of ice volume varies widely between products, with no reanalysis standing out as clearly superior as compared to altimetry estimates. The ice thickness from systems without assimilation of sea ice concentration is not worse than that from systems constrained with sea ice observations. An evaluation of the sea ice velocity fields reveals that ice drifts too fast in most systems. As an ensemble, the ORA-IP reanalyses capture trends in Arctic sea ice area and extent relatively well. However, the ensemble can not be used to get a robust estimate of recent trends in the Arctic sea ice volume. Biases in the reanalyses certainly impact the simulated air–sea fluxes in the polar regions, and questions the suitability of current sea ice reanalyses to initialize seasonal forecasts.

Translation, decay and splitting of Agulhas rings in the southeastern Atlantic Ocean

All Agulhas rings that were spawned at the Agulhas retrofiec- tion between 1993 and 1996 (a total of 21 rings) have been monitored using TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry and followed as they moved through the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, decayed, interacted with bottom topography and each other, or dissipated completely. Rings preferentially crossed the Walvis Ridge at its deepest parts. After having crossed this ridge they have lower translational speeds, and their decay rate decreases markedly. Half the decay of long-lived rings takes place in the first 5 months of their lifetimes. In addition to the strong decay of rings in the Cape Basin, about one third of the observed rings do not seem to leave this region at all but totally disintegrate here. The interaction of rings with bottom topography, in particular with the Verna Seamount, is shown frequently to cause splitting of rings. This will enhance mixing of the rings' Indian Ocean water into that of the southern Atlantic. This localized mixing may well provide a considerable source of warm and salty Indian Ocean water into the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Eddies and variability in the Mozambique Channel

Between 1995 and 2000, on average 4 eddies per year are observed from satellite altimetry to propagate southward through the Mozambique Channel, into the upstream Agulhas region. Further south, these eddies have been found to control the timing and frequenc yof Agulhas ring shedding. Within the Mozambique Channel, anomalous SSH amplitudes rise to 30 cm ; in agreement with in situ measured velocities. Comparison of an observed velocit ysection with GCM model results shows that the Mozambique Channel eddies in these models are too surface intensified. Also, the number of eddies formed in the models is in disagreement with our observational analysis. Moored current meter measurements observing the passage of three eddies in 2000 are extended to a 5-year time series b yreferencing the anomalous surface currents estimated from altimeter data to a s ynoptic LADCP velocit y measurement. The results show intermittent edd ypassage at the mooring location. A statistical analysis of SSH observations in different parts of the Mozambique Channel shows a southward decrease of the dominant frequency of the variability, going from 7 per year in the extension of the South Equatorial Current north of Madagascar to 4 per year south of Madagascar. The observations suggest that frequency reduction is related to the Rossb ywaves coming in from the east

On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

Integrated marine gravity field in the Brazilian coast from altimeter-derived sea surface gradient and shipborne gravity

Sea surface gradients derived from the Geosat and ERS-1 satellite altimetry geodetic missions were integrated with marine gravity data from the National Geophysical Data Center and Brazilian national surveys. Using the least squares collocation method, models of free-air gravity anomaly and geoid height were calculated for the coast of Brazil with a resolution of 2` x 2`. The integration of satellite and shipborne data showed better statistical results in regions near the coast than using satellite data only, suggesting an improvement when compared to the state-of-the-art global gravity models. Furthermore, these results were obtained with considerably less input information than was used by those reference models. The least squares collocation presented a very low content of high-frequency noise in the predicted gravity anomalies. This may be considered essential to improve the high resolution representation of the gravity field in regions of ocean-continent transition. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiscale Analysis of Topographic Surface Roughness in the Midland Valley, Scotland

Surface roughness is an important geomorphological variable which has been used in the Earth and planetary sciences to infer material properties, current/past processes, and the time elapsed since formation. No single definition exists; however, within the context of geomorphometry, we use surface roughness as an expression of the variability of a topographic surface at a given scale, where the scale of analysis is determined by the size of the landforms or geomorphic features of interest. Six techniques for the calculation of surface roughness were selected for an assessment of the parameter`s behavior at different spatial scales and data-set resolutions. Area ratio operated independently of scale, providing consistent results across spatial resolutions. Vector dispersion produced results with increasing roughness and homogenization of terrain at coarser resolutions and larger window sizes. Standard deviation of residual topography highlighted local features and did not detect regional relief. Standard deviation of elevation correctly identified breaks of slope and was good at detecting regional relief. Standard deviation of slope (SD(slope)) also correctly identified smooth sloping areas and breaks of slope, providing the best results for geomorphological analysis. Standard deviation of profile curvature identified the breaks of slope, although not as strongly as SD(slope), and it is sensitive to noise and spurious data. In general, SD(slope) offered good performance at a variety of scales, while the simplicity of calculation is perhaps its single greatest benefit.

Integração de dados em ambiente SIG para mapeamento de favorabilidade mineral de ouro na ilha cristalina de Rivera (Uruguai)

Guias para exploração mineral são normalmente baseados em modelos conceituais de depósitos. Esses guias são, normalmente, baseados na experiência dos geólogos, em dados descritivos e em dados genéticos. Modelamentos numéricos, probabilísticos e não probabilísticos, para estimar a ocorrência de depósitos minerais é um novo procedimento que vem a cada dia aumentando sua utilização e aceitação pela comunidade geológica. Essa tese utiliza recentes metodologias para a geração de mapas de favorablidade mineral. A denominada Ilha Cristalina de Rivera, uma janela erosional da Bacia do Paraná, situada na porção norte do Uruguai, foi escolhida como estudo de caso para a aplicação das metodologias. A construção dos mapas de favorabilidade mineral foi feita com base nos seguintes tipos de dados, informações e resultados de prospecção: 1) imagens orbitais; 2) prospecção geoquimica; 3) prospecção aerogeofísica; 4) mapeamento geo-estrutural e 5) altimetria. Essas informacões foram selecionadas e processadas com base em um modelo de depósito mineral (modelo conceitual), desenvolvido com base na Mina de Ouro San Gregorio. O modelo conceitual (modelo San Gregorio), incluiu características descritivas e genéticas da Mina San Gregorio, a qual abrange os elementos característicos significativos das demais ocorrências minerais conhecidas na Ilha Cristalina de Rivera. A geração dos mapas de favorabilidade mineral envolveu a construção de um banco de dados, o processamento dos dados, e a integração dos dados. As etapas de construção e processamento dos dados, compreenderam a coleta, a seleção e o tratamento dos dados de maneira a constituírem os denominados Planos de Informação. Esses Planos de Informação foram gerados e processados organizadamente em agrupamentos, de modo a constituírem os Fatores de Integração para o mapeamento de favorabilidade mineral na Ilha Cristalina de Rivera. Os dados foram integrados por meio da utilização de duas diferentes metodologias: 1) Pesos de Evidência (dirigida pelos dados) e 2) Lógica Difusa (dirigida pelo conhecimento). Os mapas de favorabilidade mineral resultantes da implementação das duas metodologias de integração foram primeiramente analisados e interpretados de maneira individual. Após foi feita uma análise comparativa entre os resultados. As duas metodologias xxiv obtiveram sucesso em identificar, como áreas de alta favorabilidade, as áreas mineralizadas conhecidas, além de outras áreas ainda não trabalhadas. Os mapas de favorabilidade mineral resultantes das duas metodologias mostraram-se coincidentes em relação as áreas de mais alta favorabilidade. A metodologia Pesos de Evidência apresentou o mapa de favorabilidade mineral mais conservador em termos de extensão areal, porém mais otimista em termos de valores de favorabilidade em comparação aos mapas de favorabilidade mineral resultantes da implementação da metodologia Lógica Difusa. Novos alvos para exploração mineral foram identificados e deverão ser objeto de investigação em detalhe.

Contribuição da Geodésia ao monitoramento costeiro do Litoral Setentrional do Rio Grande do Norte, área de influência da indústria petrolífera

The general objective of this thesis has been seasonal monitoring (quarterly time scale) of coastal and estuarine areas of a section of the Northern Coast of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, environmentally sensitive and with intense sediment erosion in the oil activities to underpin the implementation of projects for containment of erosion and mitigate the impacts of coastal dynamics. In order to achieve the general objective, the work was done systematically in three stages which consisted the specific objectives. The first stage was the implementation of geodetic reference infrastructure for carrying out the geodetic survey of the study area. This process included the implementation of RGLS (Northern Coast of the RN GPS Network), consisting of stations with geodetic coordinates and orthometric heights of precision; positioning of Benchmarks and evaluation of the gravimetric geoid available, for use in GPS altimetry of precision; and development of software for GPS altimetry of precision. The second stage was the development and improvement of methodologies for collection, processing, representation, integration and analysis of CoastLine (CL) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) obtained by geodetic positioning techniques. As part of this stage have been made since, the choice of equipment and positioning methods to be used, depending on the required precision and structure implanted, and the definition of the LC indicator and of the geodesic references best suited, to coastal monitoring of precision. The third step was the seasonal geodesic monitoring of the study area. It was defined the execution times of the geodetic surveys by analyzing the pattern of sediment dynamics of the study area; the performing of surveys in order to calculate and locate areas and volumes of erosion and accretion (sandy and volumetric sedimentary balance) occurred on CL and on the beaches and islands surfaces throughout the year, and study of correlations between the measured variations (in area and volume) between each survey and the action of the coastal dynamic agents. The results allowed an integrated study of spatial and temporal interrelationships of the causes and consequences of intensive coastal processes operating in the area, especially to the measurement of variability of erosion, transport, balance and supply sedimentary over the annual cycle of construction and destruction of beaches. In the analysis of the results, it was possible to identify the causes and consequences of severe coastal erosion occurred on beaches exposed, to analyze the recovery of beaches and the accretion occurring in tidal inlets and estuaries. From the optics of seasonal variations in the CL, human interventions to erosion contention have been proposed with the aim of restoring the previous situation of the beaches in the process of erosion.

Modelagem e medições de ondas de rádio para predição de perda de propagação em ambientes urbanos

In this dissertation new models of propagation path loss predictions are proposed by from techniques of optimization recent and measures of power levels for the urban and suburban areas of Natal, city of Brazilian northeast. These new proposed models are: (i) a statistical model that was implemented based in the addition of second-order statistics for the power and the altimetry of the relief in model of linear losses; (ii) a artificial neural networks model used the training of the algorithm backpropagation, in order to get the equation of propagation losses; (iii) a model based on the technique of the random walker, that considers the random of the absorption and the chaos of the environment and than its unknown parameters for the equation of propagation losses are determined through of a neural network. The digitalization of the relief for the urban and suburban areas of Natal were carried through of the development of specific computational programs and had been used available maps in the Statistics and Geography Brazilian Institute. The validations of the proposed propagation models had been carried through comparisons with measures and propagation classic models, and numerical good agreements were observed. These new considered models could be applied to any urban and suburban scenes with characteristic similar architectural to the city of Natal

Inundações urbanas no semiarido nordestino: o caso da cidade de Pau dos Ferros - RN

The Apodi river basin, particularly within the snippet that crosses Pau dos Ferros - RN city, place anthropogenic actions that interfere in the dynamic environment by modifying the local landscape. The reflection of these actions can be seen in the floods that occur in rainy periods (February to may) virtually every year in the city. It is important to stress that the project of integration of the waters of the San Francisco basin with the northern basin of Northeastern will perennial the main channel of the river basin, and generate greater impacts in the region. This work sought to define a methodology able to delimit areas susceptible to flooding in cities of semiarid Northeast based on the Pau dos Ferros RN city. The dissertation is divided into two chapters and introduction. The introduction presents a theoretical frame based on discussion of the concept of risk, their main characteristics and subdivisions; floods; geotecnologies; Apodi River basin; municipal data Pau dos Ferros RN and design integration of Francisco basin with the northern basins Northeast. The first chapter evaluates the urban expansion process between 1987 and 2008, delimiting the flood areas and analyzes the relationship between urban growth and retention areas. The second chapter identifies the flood risk areas in the Pau dos Ferros city. The methodology used was based on tools of geographic information system GIS from software SPRING/INPE 5.1, as well as bibliographical, satellite images, aerial photographs and field activities. The results obtained enabled view the rapid expansion of the urban area of Pau dos Ferros, which has doubled in a period of 22 years. The population density checks with greater intensity in South-central portion of the city, in flood areas and not flood (Cap. 01). It was noted also that some neighborhoods along the River Apodi are susceptible to more instances of flooding ranging from minimum to maximum, while in neighborhoods near the Riacho Cajazeiras floods occur to a lesser extent because of altimetry higher and lower water volume. (Cap. 02). It is expected that this work will help in the preparation of flood risk municipal map subsidising managers in implementing public policies targeted to the softening of urban flood-related issues in Pau dos Ferros RN and serve as a model for mapping of other cities with similar characteristics analyzed in this work

Determinação altimétrica através do sistema de posicionamento global

Este estudo tem por objetivo verificar a influência do tempo de coleta de dados com receptores GPS nas determinações altimétricas. O levantamento altimétrico é realizado através do método de posicionamento relativo estático, utilizando dois receptores GPS de uma freqüência, em diferentes tempos de ocupação (30, 15, 10 e 5 minutos) com uma taxa de gravação de dois segundos. As altitudes obtidas com receptores GPS são comparadas com as altitudes determinadas por nivelamento trigonométrico com Estação Total. Os resultados mostraram que os tempos de ocupação menores que 30 minutos (15, 10 e 5 minutos) também são adequados para a obtenção de diferenças centimétricas nas altitudes analisadas. Mesmo considerando a precisão dos métodos topográficos convencionais, este estudo demonstra a possibilidade da utilização do Sistema de Posicionamento Global (GPS) de forma precisa nos levantamentos altimétricos, desde que se efetue a modelagem da ondulação geoidal.

Modelagem numérica da superfície na geração da planialtimetra segundo dados de quatro equipamentos topogríficos

The aim of this present work was to compare planialtimetric charts obtained from different risings using two different theodolite types, a total station, and a precision level, used as control. Using a total station, an area was marked with clear variations of relief, following a grid, with a distance of 20 meters among stakes. After that, the stakes were read by the total station and two theodolites of different precisions. The geometric leveling was done by a precision level. The data were input in the DataGeosis software and the numerical modelling of the land was made with mesh of maximum rigidity, generating planialtimetric representation for each rising. It was verified, through comparison of the four representations that little variations occur in relation to the control. The closest representation of the control was the planialtimetry based on the data from the total station, in which the representations obtained from the theodolites were identical among themselves. It was concluded that in the process of obtaining detailed planialtimetry of small areas, submitted to the grid, it was not necessary to use composed geometric leveling, reducing work to the exclusive use of a total station or conventional theodolite.

SIG e sensoriamento remoto aplicado ao estudo dos processos de inundação e mapeamento da cobertura vegetal na planície fluvial do alto Rio Paraná

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)