Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Aquatic invasive alien species – top issues for their management. Outcomes from the IFI/EIFAAC conference “Freshwater Invasives – Networking for Strategy”

In November 2014, a new EU Regulation to address Invasive Alien Species (IAS) and protect biodiversity was published. This entered into force across the EU in January 2015. The aim of the Regulation is to ‘prevent the introduction of, control or eradicate alien species which threaten ecosystems, habitats or species’. In an effort to provide focus to the Regulation prior to its publishing and to identify the major issues relating to Invasive Alien Species in Europe, the views of invasive species experts from around the world were sought. These were consolidated at an international conference (Freshwater Invasives - Networking for Strategy (FINS)) that was held in Ireland in April 2013. A major outcome from this meeting of experts was the production of the Top 20 IAS issues that relate primarily to freshwater habitats but are also directly relevant to marine and terrestrial ecosystems. This list will support policy makers throughout the EU as preparations are made to implement this important piece of legislation. A further outcome from the conference was the formation of an expert IAS Advisory Group to support EIFAAC in its work on invasive species

Invasive alien species disrupt spatial and temporal ecology and threaten extinction in an insular, small mammal community

The impact of invasive bank vole (Myodes glareolus) and greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) on indigenous Irish small mammals, varies with season and habitat. We caught bank voles in deciduous woodland, young coniferous plantations and open habitats such as rank grass. The greater white-toothed shrew was absent from deciduous woods and plantations but did use open habitats with low level cover in addition to field margins. Numbers of both invasive species in field margins during summer were higher than in the previous spring. The indigenous wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) and pygmy shrew (Sorex minutus), differed in degrees of negative response to invasive species. Wood mice with bank voles in hedgerows had reduced recruitment and lower peak abundance. This effect was less extreme where both invasive species were present. Wood mice numbers along field margins and open habitats were significantly depressed by the presence of the bank vole with no such effect in deciduous woodland or coniferous plantations. Summer recruitment in pygmy shrews was reduced in hedgerows with bank voles. Where greater white-toothed shrew was present, the pygmy shrew was entirely absent from field margins. Species replacement due to invasive small mammals is occurring in their major habitat i.e. field margins and open habitats where there is good ground cover. Pygmy shrew will probably disappear from these habitats throughout Ireland. Wood mice and possibly pygmy shrew may survive in deciduous woodland and conifer plantations. Mitigation of impacts of invasive species should include expansion of woodland in which native species can survive.

Managing invasive alien species with professional and hobby farmers: insights from ecological-economic modelling

Biosecurity is a great challenge to policy-makers globally. Biosecurity policies aim to either prevent invasions before they occur or to eradicate and/or effectively manage the invasive species and diseases once an invasion has occurred. Such policies have traditionally been directed towards professional producers in natural resource based sectors, including agriculture. Given the wide scope of issues threatened by invasive species and diseases, it is important to account for several types of stakeholders that are involved. We investigate the problem of an invasive insect pest feeding on an agricultural crop with heterogeneous producers: profit-oriented professional farmers and utility-oriented hobby farmers. We start from an ecological-economic model conceptually similar to the one developed by Eiswerth and Johnson [Eiswerth, M.E. and Johnson, W.S., 2002. Managing nonindigenous invasive species: insights from dynamic analysis. Environmental and Resource Economics 23, 319-342.] and extend it in three ways. First, we make explicit the relationship between the invaded state carrying capacity and farmers' planting decisions. Second, we add another producer type into the framework and hence account for the existence of both professional and hobby fanners. Third, we provide a theoretical contribution by discussing two alternative types of equilibria. We also apply the model to an empirical case to extract a number of stylised facts and in particular to assess: a) under which circumstances the invasion is likely to be not controllable; and b) how extending control policies to hobby farmers could affect both types of producers. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using strategically applied grazing to manage invasive alien plants in novel grasslands

Introduction Novel ecosystems that contain new combinations of invasive alien plants (IAPs) present a challenge for managers. Yet, control strategies that focus on the removal of the invasive species and/or restoring historical disturbance regimes often do not provide the best outcome for long-term control of IAPs and the promotion of more desirable plant species. Methods This study seeks to identify the primary drivers of grassland invasion to then inform management practices toward the restoration of native ecosystems. By revisiting both published and unpublished data from experiments and case studies within mainly an Australian context for native grassland management, we show how alternative states models can help to design control strategies to manage undesirable IAPs by manipulating grazing pressure. Results Ungulate grazing is generally considered antithetical to invasive species management because in many countries where livestock production is a relatively new disturbance to grasslands (such as in Australia and New Zealand as well as Canada and the USA), selective grazing pressure may have facilitated opportunities for IAPs to establish. We find that grazing stock can be used to manipulate species composition in favour of the desirable components in pastures, but whether grazing is rested or strategically applied depends on the management goal, sizes of populations of the IAP and more desirable species, and climatic and edaphic conditions. Conclusions Based on our findings, we integrated these relationships to develop a testable framework for managing IAPs with strategic grazing that considers both the current state of the plant community and the desired future state—i.e. the application of the principles behind reclamation, rehabilitation, restoration or all three—over time.

Defining the spatiotemporal surveillance space for alien species’ invasions using approximate Bayesian computation

The spatiotemporal dynamics of an alien species invasion across a real landscape are typically complex. While surveillance is an essential part of a management response, planning surveillance in space and time present a difficult challenge due to this complexity. We show here a method for determining the highest probability sites for occupancy across a landscape at an arbitrary point in the future, based on occupancy data from a single slice in time. We apply to the method to the invasion of Giant Hogweed, a serious weed in the Czech republic and throughout Europe.

The status and causes of alien species invasion in China

Data of classification, origin, pathway and environmental impacts of invasive alien micro-organisms, invertebrates, amphibians and reptiles, fish, birds, mammals, weeds, trees, and marine organisms in terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems of China, were analyzed, based on literature retrieval, field survey and consultation. Some 283 invasive alien species were recorded in China, including 19 invasive alien micro-organisms, 18 aquatic plants, 170 terrestrial plants, 25 aquatic invertebrates, 33 terrestrial invertebrates, 3 amphibians and reptiles, 10 fish, and 5 mammals. Of the invasive alien species, 55.1% originated from North and South America, 21.7% from Europe, 9.9% from Asia, 8.1% from Africa and 0.6% from Oceania. Many institutions and individuals in China lack adequate knowledge of ecological and environmental consequences caused by invasive alien species, with some ignorance of the dangerous invasion in the introduction of alien species. For instance, 50.0% of invasive alien plants were intentionally introduced as pasture, feedingstuff, ornamental plants, textile plants, medicinal plants, vegetables, or lawn plants, 25% of alien invasive animals were intentionally introduced for cultivation, ornament, or biological control, In addition, more efforts are being made in the introduction of alien species, and little attention is paid on the management of introduced alien species, which may cause their escape into natural environment and potential threats to the environment. There were also gaps in quarantine system in China. All microorganisms were unintentionally introduced, through timber, seedling, flowerpot, or soil; 76.3% of alien invasive animals invaded through commodity or transportation facility because of the failure of quarantine. Therefore, quarantine measures should be strictly implemented; and meanwhile the intentional introduction of alien species should be strictly managed and a system of risk assessment should be implemented.

Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

Alien aquatics in Europe: assessing the relative environmental and socio-economic impacts of invasive aquatic macroinvertebrates and other taxa

Invasive alien aquatic species, including marine and freshwater macroinvertebrates, have become increasingly important in terms of both environmental and socio-economic impacts. In order to assess their environmental and economic costs, we applied the Generic Impact Scoring System (GISS) and performed a comparison with other taxa of invaders in Europe. Impacts were scored into six environmental and six socio-economic categories, with each category containing five impact levels. Among 49 aquatic macroinvertebrates, the most impacting species were the Chinese mitten crab, Eriocheir sinensis (Milne-Edwards, 1853) and the zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas, 1771). The highest impacts found per GISS impact category were, separately; on ecosystems, through predation, as competitors, and on animal production. Eleven species have an impact score > 10 (high impact) and seven reach impact level 5 in at least one impact category (EU blacklist candidates), the maximum score that can be given is 60 impact points. Comparisons were drawn between aquatic macroinvertebrates and vertebrate invaders such as fish, mammals and birds, as well as terrestrial arthropods, revealing invasive freshwater macroinvertebrates to be voracious predators of native prey and damaging to native ecosystems compared with other taxa. GISS can be used to compare these taxa and will aid policy making and targeting of invasive species for management by relevant agencies, or to assist in producing species blacklist candidates.

Comparing the establishment of an invasive and an endemic palm species in the Atlantic rainforest

Background: Biological invasions are one of the major causes of biodiversity loss, yet remain rather understudied in tropical environments. The Australian palm tree Archontophoenix cunninghamiana was introduced into Brazil for ornamental purposes, but has become an invasive species in urban and suburban forest patches. The substitution of A. cunninghamiana by the native palm Euterpe edulis has been proposed as a management action. Aims: We aimed to evaluate the regeneration potential of these two palm species in an Atlantic forest remnant in south-eastern Brazil where both species occur. Methods: We compared seedling establishment and seed longevity of both species through seed sowing, and also measured the contribution of A. cunninghamiana to the local seed rain and seed bank. Results: Nearly half of the non-anemochoric diaspores collected from the seed rain belonged to A. cunninghamiana, which represented a high propagule pressure in the community. The distribution of the alien palm seeds in the seed rain correlated with the distribution of nearby young and adult individuals inside the forest. Neither A. cunninghamiana nor E. edulis appeared to have a persistent seed bank in a burial experiment; seedling survival experiments suggested a much better performance for A. cunninghamiana, which had a survival rate of ca. 30% compared with a rate of only 3.5% for E. edulis. Conclusions: The results suggest a higher regeneration capacity for the alien palm over the native species when co-occurring in a forest fragment. Management actions are thus proposed to reduce a potential biological invasion process.

Central European plant species from more productive habitats are more invasive at a global scale

Aim: Accumulating evidence indicates that species may be pre-adapted for invasion success in new ranges. In the light of increasing global nutrient accumulation, an important candidate pre-adaptation for invasiveness is the ability to grow in nutrient-rich habitats. Therefore we tested whether globally invasive species originating from Central Europe have come from more productive rather than less productive habitats. A further important candidate pre-adaptation for invasiveness is large niche width. Therefore, we also tested whether species able to grow across habitats with a wider range of productivity are more invasive. Location: Global with respect to invasiveness, and Central European with respect to origin of study species. Methods  We examined whether average habitat productivity and its width across habitats are significant predictors of the success of Central European species as aliens and as weeds elsewhere in the world based on data in the Global Compendium of Weeds. The two habitat productivity measures were derived from nutrient indicator values (after Ellenberg) of accompanying species present in vegetation records of the comprehensive Czech National Phytosociological Database. In the analyses, we accounted for phylogenetic relatedness among species and for size of the native distribution ranges. Results: Species from more productive habitats and with a wider native habitat-productivity niche in Central Europe have higher alien success elsewhere in the world. Weediness of species increased with mean habitat productivity. Niche width was also an important determinant of weediness for species with their main occurrence in nutrient-poor habitats, but not for those from nutrient-rich habitats. Main conclusions: Our results indicate that Central European plant species from productive habitats and those species from nutrient-poor habitat with wide productivity-niche are pre-adapted to become invasive. These results suggest that the world-wide invasion success of many Central European species is likely to have been promoted by the global increase of resource-rich habitats.

Priority threat management of invasive plant species in the Lake Eyre Basin

This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.

Coordination and plasticity in leaf anatomical traits of invasive and native vine species

Premise of the study: Plant invasiveness can be promoted by higher values of adaptive traits (e.g., photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation), greater plasticity and coordination of these traits, and by higher and positive relative influence of these functionalities on fitness, such as increasing reproductive output. However, the dataset for this premise rarely include linkages between epidermal-stomatal traits, leaf internal anatomy, and physiological performance. Methods: Three ecological pairs of invasive vs non-invasive (native) woody vine species of South-East Queensland, Australia were investigated for trait differences in leaf morphology and anatomy under varying light intensity. The linkages of these traits with physiological performance (e.g. water use efficiency, photosynthesis, and leaf construction cost) and plant adaptive traits of specific leaf area, biomass, and relative growth rates were also explored. Key results: Mean leaf anatomical trait differed significantly between the two groups, except for stomatal size. Plasticity of traits, and to a very limited extent, their phenotypic integration were higher in the invasive relative to the native species. ANOVA, ordination, and analysis of similarity suggest that for leaf morphology and anatomy, the three functional strategies contribute to the differences between the two groups in the order phenotypic plasticity > trait means > phenotypic integration. Conclusions: The linkages demonstrated in the study between stomatal complex/gross anatomy and physiology are scarce in the ecological literature of plant invasiveness, but the findings suggest that leaf anatomical traits need to be considered routinely as part of weed species assessment and in the worldwide leaf economic spectrum.

Predicting invasiveness in exotic species: do subtropical native and invasive exotic aquatic plants differ in their growth responses to macronutrients?

We investigated whether plasticity in growth responses to nutrients could predict invasive potential in aquatic plants by measuring the effects of nutrients on growth of eight non-invasive native and six invasive exotic aquatic plant species. Nutrients were applied at two levels, approximating those found in urbanized and relatively undisturbed catchments, respectively. To identify systematic differences between invasive and non-invasive species, we compared the growth responses (total biomass, root:shoot allocation, and photosynthetic surface area) of native species with those of related invasive species after 13 weeks growth. The results were used to seek evidence of invasive potential among four recently naturalized species. There was evidence that invasive species tend to accumulate more biomass than native species (P = 0.0788). Root:shoot allocation did not differ between native and invasive plant species, nor was allocation affected by nutrient addition. However, the photosynthetic surface area of invasive species tended to increase with nutrients, whereas it did not among native species (P = 0.0658). Of the four recently naturalized species, Hydrocleys nymphoides showed the same nutrient-related plasticity in photosynthetic area displayed by known invasive species. Cyperus papyrus showed a strong reduction in photosynthetic area with increased nutrients. H. nymphoides and C. papyrus also accumulated more biomass than their native relatives. H. nymphoides possesses both of the traits we found to be associated with invasiveness, and should thus be regarded as likely to be invasive.