A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Contingent or structural crisis in British agriculture?

The British agricultural sector is either already in or rapidly approaching some sort of crisis. Two features are particularly significant in the political response to the current situation. First, there is an increasingly neoliberal approach to agricultural policy. Sec end, agricultural policy per se is being subsumed with wider rural policies. In this paper we question the rationality of both these trends, both theoretically through 'new wave regulation theory' and by relating the British situation to the recent experiences of the agricultural sectors in Australia and New Zealand.

Sustainable Tourism and Agriculture Multifunctionality by PAR: A Variable Selection Approach

Copyright © 2013 Springer Netherlands.

Adoção da NCRF 17 nas maiores empresas do sector agrícola em Portugal

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Environmental performance policy indicators for the public sector: The case of the defence sector

Journal of Environmental Management, nº 82 p. 410–432

Percepció socioambiental del present i el futur del sector ramader a Esterri de Cardós

En aquest projecte s’ha realitzat una diagnosi socioambiental de la ramaderia en el municipi d’Esterri de Cardós, situat a la comarca del Pallars Sobirà, i que es troba dins dels límits del Parc Natural de l’Alt Pirineu. Dins del seu àmbit és un municipi peculiar degut a la quantitat de ramaders, set, i a la mitjana d’edat, que és força jove. La situació actual del sector és complicada atès el poc benefici que generen les explotacions, ja que els costos de manteniment són cada vegada més grans i els ingressos no augmenten en la mateixa proporció. És per això que des de fa uns anys els ajuts econòmics han esdevingut un factor clau per mantenir el sector. La seva continuïtat depèn de, entre altres coses, la dedicació en el sector de les generacions futures i ara per ara sembla que aquestes es decanten cada vegada més per altres tipus d’ocupacions. És per això que han de treballar totes les parts conjuntament per poder solucionar aquesta situació i que no esdevingui un problema insalvable en els pròxims anys.

Environmental Tax on Products and Services Based on Their Carbon Footprint: A Case Study of the Pulp and Paper Sector

The main aim of this work is to define an environmental tax on products and services based on their carbon footprint. We examine the relevance of conventional life cycle analysis (LCA) and environmentally extended input-output analysis (EIO) as methodological tools to identify emission intensities of products and services on which the tax is based. The short-term price effects of the tax and the policy implications of considering non-GHG are also analyzed. The results from the specific case study on pulp production show that the environmental tax rate based on the LCA approach (1,8%) is higher than both EIO approaches (0,8% for product and 1,4% for industry approach), but they are comparable. Even though LCA is more product specific and provides detailed analysis, EIO would be the more relevant approach to apply economy wide environmental tax. When the environmental tax considers non-GHG emissions instead of only CO2, sectors such as agriculture, mining of coal and extraction of peat, and food exhibit higher environmental tax and price effects. Therefore, it is worthwhile for policy makers to pay attention on the implication of considering only CO2 tax or GHG emissions tax in order for such a policy measure to be effective and meaningful. Keywords: Environmental tax; Life cycle analysis; Environmental input-output analysis.

La gestión de las cooperativas agrarias: tipificación de las cooperativas del sector oleico de Cataluña

El següent treball té com a objectiu mostrar la situació de la gestió en el sector de les cooperatives d'oli a Catalunya