Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Herbicide resistance modelling: Past, present and future

Computer simulation modelling is an essential aid in building an integrated understanding of how different factors interact to affect the evolutionary and population dynamics of herbicide resistance, and thus in helping to predict and manage how agricultural systems will be affected. In this review, we first discuss why computer simulation modelling is such an important tool and framework for dealing with herbicide resistance. We then explain what questions related to herbicide resistance have been addressed to date using simulation modelling, and discuss the modelling approaches that have been used, focusing first on the earlier, more general approaches, and then on some newer, more innovative approaches. We then consider how these approaches could be further developed in the future, by drawing on modelling techniques that are already employed in other areas, such as individual-based and spatially explicit modelling approaches, as well as the possibility of better representing genetics, competition and economics, and finally the questions and issues of importance to herbicide resistance research and management that could be addressed using these new approaches are discussed. We conclude that it is necessary to proceed with caution when increasing the complexity of models by adding new details, but, with appropriate care, more detailed models will make it possible to integrate more current knowledge in order better to understand, predict and ultimately manage the evolution of herbicide resistance. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

High-throughput Phenotyping of Wheat Seminal Root Traits in a Breeding Context

Water availability is a major limiting factor for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in rain-fed agricultural systems worldwide. Root architecture has important functional implications for the timing and extent of soil water extraction, yet selection for root traits in wheat breeding programs has been largely limited due to the lack of suitable phenotyping methods. The aim of this research was to develop a low-cost high-throughput phenotyping method to facilitate selection for desirable root traits. We developed a method to assess ‘seminal root angle’ and ‘seminal root number’ in seedlings – two proxy traits associated to root architecture of mature wheat plants (1). The method involves measuring the angle between the first pair of seminal roots and the number of roots of wheat seedlings grown in transparent pots (Figure 1). Images captured at 5 to 10 days after sowing are analyzed to calculate seminal root angle and number. Performing this technique under “speed breeding” conditions (plants grown at a density of 600 plants / m2, under controlled temperature and constant light) allows the selection based on the desired root traits of up to 5 consecutive generations within 12 months. Alternatively, when focusing only on germplasm screening, up to 52 successive phenotypic assays can be conducted within 12 months. This approach has been shown to be highly reproducible, it requires little resource (time, space, and labour) and can be used to rapidly enrich breeding populations with desirable alleles for narrow root angle and a high number of seminal roots to indirectly target the selection of deeper root system with higher branching at depth. Such root characteristics are highly desirable in wheat to cope with the climate model projections, especially in summer rainfall dominant regions including some Australian, Indian, South American and African cropping regions, where winter crops mainly rely on deep stored water.

Use of climate information for farm-level decision making: rainfed groundnut in southern India

The production of rainfed crops in semi-arid tropics exhibits large variation in response to the variation in seasonal rainfall. There are several farm-level decisions such as the choice of cropping pattern, whether to invest in fertilizers, pesticides etc., the choice of the period for planting, plant population density etc. for which the appropriate choice (associated with maximum production or minimum risk) depends upon the nature of the rainfall variability or the prediction for a specific year. In this paper, we have addressed the problem of identifying the appropriate strategies for cultivation of rainfed groundnut in the Anantapur region in a semi-arid part of the Indian peninsula. The approach developed involves participatory research with active collaboration with farmers, so that the problems with perceived need are addressed with the modern tools and data sets available. Given the large spatial variation of climate and soil, the appropriate strategies are necessarily location specific. With the approach adopted, it is possible to tap the detailed location specific knowledge of the complex rainfed ecosystem and gain an insight into the variety of options of land use and management practices available to each category of stakeholders. We believe such a participatory approach is essential for identifying strategies that have a favourable cost-benefit ratio over the region considered and hence are associated with a high chance of acceptance by the stakeholders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proposta Metodológica de Análise Quantitativa da Sustentabilidade de Estabelecimentos Agropecuários Fluminenses

O presente trabalho consistiu em realizar uma proposta metodológica de análise quantitativa da sustentabilidade de estabelecimentos agropecuários fluminenses através do emprego do marco metodológico proposto por Sauvenier et al. (2006) e van Cauwenbergh et al. (2007), denominado SAFE (Sustainability Assessment of Farming and the Environment Framework). Conforme a aplicação para sistemas agrários realizada por Sánchez-Fernández (2009) e por sua vez, incorporando a quarta dimensão da sustentabilidade (dimensão institucional), ademais das três dimensões clássicas neste tipo de análise (econômica, social e ambiental), seguindo a sugestão do IBGE (2010), com base nas recomendações do Livro Azul da ONU (1996). Esse procedimento contou com a colaboração e validação de um painel composto por 16 especialistas em agricultura fluminense o que permitiu selecionar 20 indicadores de sustentabilidade, derivados de 17 critérios, 8 princípios e 4 dimensões. Dos resultados alcançados e de seus possíveis desdobramentos, a proposta metodológica sugerida pode ser considerada uma ferramenta potencialmente útil para guiar as políticas públicas que incidem sobre o setor.

Building coalitions, creating change: an agenda for gender transformative research in development Workshop Report 3-5 October 2012, Penang, Malaysia

There is compelling evidence that increased gender equity can make a significant contribution towards alleviating poverty and increasing food security. But past efforts to integrate gender into agricultural research and development practice have failed to address the inequalities that limit women’s access to agricultural inputs, markets, resources and advice. A Gender Transformative Approach (GTA) goes beyond just considering the symptoms of gender inequality, and addresses the social norms, attitudes, behaviors and social systems that underlie them. The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) has placed the GTA at the heart of its gender strategy. This workshop was an opportunity for researchers, practitioners and donors working in this area to address the challenge of how to translate this approach into actual research and development practice. The workshop recommended that a GTA should be adopted alongside, not instead of, existing efforts to reverse gender disparities in resources, technologies and markets. It is through this pairing that improved social and material outcomes can be achieved, with the expectation that when achieved together, both types of outcomes will be more lasting than if achieved individually.

Collaborative governance assessment

This Guidance Note presents a simple approach to analyzing the governance context for development of aquatic agricultural systems; it is intended as an aid to action research, and a contribution to effective program planning and evaluation. It provides a brief introduction to the value of assessing governance collaboratively, summarizes an analytical framework, and offers practical guidance on three stages of the process: identifying obstacles and opportunities, debating strategies for influence, and planning collaborative actions.

Ex-ante impact evaluation: case studies from Malawi, Bangladesh and Ghana

This document presents ex-ante impact evaluations of research for development projects related to aquaculture in Bangladesh, Malawi and Ghana. The Ghana chapter also includes an ex-ante evaluation of a fisheries project. The case studies utilized preliminary versions of guidelines developed specifically for ex-ante evaluations of aquaculture and fisheries projects. The guidelines, found in A Practical Guide for Ex-Ante Impact Evaluations in Fisheries and Aquaculture, are designed to provide an approach for a qualitative examination of the potential for a project to deliver impacts. Using a conceptual framework based on the outcome focus of results-based management, the guidelines stress careful examination of the setting, internal consistency, a sound theory of change, and an examination of stakeholders’ interests and potential partnerships. The case study reports illustrate the variability with which the guidelines may be interpreted and applied. The different teams, operating with limited time and budget that constrained the collection of new data, were forced to utilize existing secondary data and information and consult with key stakeholders to complete their analyses. The varying levels of reporting reflect the differences among the cases in the amounts of existing information and variety of stakeholders potentially involved in the projects being examined.

Food and nutrition security in Solomon Islands

This report is a literature review on Food and Nutrition Security in Solomon Islands, based on data from surveys conducted by Solomon Islands National Statistical Office, as well as from national and international organizations working in Solomon Islands. The purpose of the report is to present information outlining the current food and nutrition situation in Solomon Islands before implementation of the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS), led by WorldFish. The aim of the AAS program is to enhance production in natural freshwater and/or coastal ecosystems to improve household livelihood, including income and food security. This report summarizes national statistics and also focuses in more detail on a subset of provinces: Guadalcanal, Malaita and Western. In 2012, the AAS program was rolled out in Guadalcanal, Central and Malaita Provinces, designated the Central Hub. In 2013, roll out is beginning in the Western Hub (Western and Isabel Provinces). The priority province for the Central Hub has been identified as Malaita.

Solomon Islands national situation analysis

The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (CRP AAS) was approved by the CGIAR Fund Council in July, 2011. Solomon Islands, one of five countries targeted by the program, began its rollout with a five month planning phase between August and December of 2011. Subsequent steps of the Program rollout include scoping, diagnosis and design. This report is the first to be produced during the scoping phase in Solomon Islands; it addresses the national setting and provides basic information on the context within which the AAS Program will operate. The macro level subjects of analysis provide initial baselines of national level indicators, policy context, power relationships and other factors relevant to the Program.

Using theory of change to achieve impact in AAS

The CGIAR Strategy and Results Framework sets out four system level outcomes (SLOs), namely: reducing rural poverty, improving food security, improving nutrition and health and sustainable management of natural resources. In pursuit of these objectives the CGIAR has developed a set of sixteen CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs), each of which is expected to make specific contributions to a range of intermediate development outcomes (IDOs) linked to the SLOs. As part of this work the CRPs are developing impact pathways and theories of change designed to explain how the programs will achieve IDOs. The purpose of the present paper is to explain the approach that the CRP on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is taking to using these programmatic tools to help achieve impact.

Research in development: the approach of AAS

The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is pursuing a Research in Development approach that emphasizes the importance of embedding research in the development context. Reflecting this emphasis the six elements of this approach are a commitment to people and place, participatory action research, gender transformative research, learning and networking, partnerships, and capacity building. It is through the careful pursuit of these six elements that we believe that the program will achieve the development outcomes we aspire to, and do so at scale.