Infrastructure, transport and production development in an agricultural region: a case in Argentina.

The development of the agricultural area in central and northern Argentina was analysed in a recent ECLAC study. More than 80% by volume of the country's agricultural exports pass through the ports in this area. Exports by the agroindustrial complex account for 58% of the total value of Argentine sales.It is known that investments in infrastructure generally help to reduce the costs of enterprises and to enhance productivity. The main idea presented in this study is that investments in transport infrastructure are a necessary condition for the productive development of a region, especially in relation to external trade through ports and navigable waterways.In the case of Argentina, a positive relationship has been observed between the development of port and waterway services (with reduced costs and operating times, improved reliability and new services), and expansion of the agricultural border, growth of productivity and agricultural production, and its industrialization.

The role of land and water for trade and food production in Latin America: Environmental trade-offs of agricultural intensification versus extensification

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

Measuring and decomposing changes in agricultural productivity, nitrogen use efficiency and cumulative exergy efficiency: Application to OECD agriculture

This paper uses an aggregate quantity space to decompose the temporal changes in nitrogen use efficiency and cumulative exergy use efficiency into changes of Moorsteen–Bjurek (MB) Total Factor Productivity (TFP) changes and changes in the aggregate nitrogen and cumulative exergy contents. Changes in productivity can be broken into technical change and changes in various efficiency measures such as technical efficiency, scale efficiency and residual mix efficiency. Changes in the aggregate nitrogen and cumulative exergy contents can be driven by changes in the quality of inputs and outputs and changes in the mixes of inputs and outputs. Also with cumulative exergy content analysis, changes in the efficiency in input production can increase or decrease the cumulative exergy transformity of agricultural production. The empirical study in 30 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development from 1990 to 2003 yielded some important findings. The production technology progressed but there were reductions in technical efficiency, scale efficiency and residual mix efficiency levels. This result suggests that the production frontier had shifted up but there existed lags in the responses of member countries to the technological change. Given TFP growth, improvements in nutrient use efficiency and cumulative exergy use efficiency were counteracted by reductions in the changes of the aggregate nitrogen contents ratio and aggregate cumulative exergy contents ratio. The empirical results also confirmed that different combinations of inputs and outputs as well as the quality of inputs and outputs could have more influence on the growth of nutrient and cumulative exergy use efficiency than factors that had driven productivity change. Keywords: Nutrient use efficiency; Cumulative exergy use efficiency; Thermodynamic efficiency change; Productivity growth; OECD agriculture; Sustainability

Agricultural biodiversity, farm level technical efficiency and conservation benefits : an empirical investigation

The issues involved in agricultural biodiversity are important and interesting areas for the application of economic theory. However, very little theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken to understand the benefits of conserving agricultural biodiversity. Accordingly, the main objectives of this PhD thesis are to: (1) Investigate farmers’ valuation of agricultural biodiversity; (2) Identify factors influencing farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity; (3) Examine farmers’ demand for biodiversity rich farming systems; (4) Investigate the relationship between agricultural biodiversity and farm level technical efficiency. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data in small-scale farms, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarized as follows. Firstly, owing to educational and poverty issues of those being interviewed, some policy makers in developed countries question whether non-market valuation techniques such as Choice Experiment (CE) can be applied to developing countries such as Sri Lanka. The CE study in this thesis indicates that carefully designed and pre-tested nonmarket valuation techniques can be applied in developing countries with a high level of reliability. The CE findings support the priori assumption that small-scale farms and their multiple attributes contribute positively and significantly to the utility of farm families in Sri Lanka. Farmers have strong positive attitudes towards increasing agricultural biodiversity in rural areas. This suggests that these attitudes can be the basis on which appropriate policies can be introduced to improve agricultural biodiversity. Secondly, the thesis identifies the factors which influence farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity and farmers’ demands on biodiversity rich farming systems. As such they provide important tools for the implementation of policies designed to avoid the loss agricultural biodiversity which is shown to be a major impediment to agricultural growth and sustainable development in a number of developing countries. The results illustrate that certain key household, market and other characteristics (such as agricultural subsidies, percentage of investment of owned money and farm size) are the major determinants of demand for agricultural biodiversity on small-scale farms. The significant household characteristics that determine crop and livestock diversity include household member participation on the farm, off-farm income, shared labour, market price fluctuations and household wealth. Furthermore, it is shown that all the included market characteristics as well as agricultural subsidies are also important determinants of agricultural biodiversity. Thirdly, it is found that when the efficiency of agricultural production is measured in practice, the role of agricultural biodiversity has rarely been investigated in the literature. The results in the final section of the thesis show that crop diversity, livestock diversity and mix farming system are positively related to farm level technical efficiency. In addition to these variables education level, number of separate plots, agricultural extension service, credit access, membership of farm organization and land ownerships are significant and direct policy relevant variables in the inefficiency model. The results of the study therefore have important policy implications for conserving agricultural biodiversity in Sri Lanka.

Climate Change and the Resilience of Commodity Food Production in Australia

The current view of Australian state and national governments about the effects of climate change on agriculture is that farmers – through the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies – will remain resilient, and agricultural production will continue to expand. The assumption is that neoliberalism will provide the best ‘free market’ options for climate change mitigation and adaptation in farming. In contrast, we argue that neoliberalism will increase the move towards productivis (‘high-tech’) agriculture – the very system that has caused major environmental damage to the Australian continent. High-tech farming is highly dependent upon access to water and fossil fuels, both of which would appear to be the main limits to production in future decades. Productivist agriculture is a system highly reliant upon fertilizers and fuels that are derived from the petrochemical industry, and are currently increasing in cost as the price of oil increases.

Rice husk biochar and crop residue amendment in subtropical cropping soils: Effect on biomass production, nitrogen use efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions

We investigated the effect of maize residues and rice husk biochar on biomass production, fertiliser nitrogen recovery (FNR) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions for three different subtropical cropping soils. Maize residues at two rates (0 and 10 t ha−1) combined with three rates (0, 15 and 30 t ha-1) of rice husk biochar were added to three soil types in a pot trial with maize plants. Soil N2O emissions were monitored with static chambers for 91 days. Isotopic 15N-labelled urea was applied to the treatments without added crop residues to measure the FNR. Crop residue incorporation significantly reduced N uptake in all treatments but did not affect overall FNR. Rice husk biochar amendment had no effect on plant growth and N uptake but significantly reduced N2O and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in two of the three soils. The incorporation of crop residues had a contrasting effect on soil N2O emissions depending on the mineral N status of the soil. The study shows that effects of crop residues depend on soil properties at the time of application. Adding crop residues with a high C/N ratio to soil can immobilise N in the soil profile and hence reduce N uptake and/or total biomass production. Crop residue incorporation can either stimulate or reduce N2O emissions depending on the mineral N content of the soil. Crop residues pyrolysed to biochar can potentially stabilise native soil C (negative priming) and reduce N2O emissions from cropping soils thus providing climate change mitigation potential beyond the biochar C storage in soils. Incorporation of crop residues as an approach to recycle organic materials and reduce synthetic N fertiliser use in agricultural production requires a thorough evaluation, both in terms of biomass production and greenhouse gas emissions.

Crop sequences to manage soil pathogens and increase northern grain production

This is part of a GRDC funded project led by Dr Jeremy Whish of CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences. The project aims to build a root-lesion nematode module into the crop growth simulation program APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator). This will utilise existing nematode and crop data from field, glasshouse and laboratory research led by Dr John Thompson. New data will be collected to validate and extend the model.

Implementation costs of Agricultural Management Practices for Water Quality Improvement in the Great Barrier Reef Catchments. CSIRO: Water for Healthy Country National Research Flagship

Executive summary. In this report we analyse implementation costs and benefits for agricultural management practices, grouped into farming systems. In order to do so, we compare plot scale gross margins for the dominant agricultural production systems (sugarcane, grazing and banana cultivation) in the NRM regions Wet Tropics, Burdekin Dry Tropics and Mackay Whitsundays. Furthermore, where available, we present investment requirements for changing to improved farming systems. It must be noted that transaction costs are not captured within this project. For sugarcane, this economic analysis shows that there are expected benefits to sugarcane growers in the different regions through transitions to C and B class farming systems. Further transition to A-class farming systems can come at a cost, depending on the capital investment required and the length of the investment period. Obviously, the costs and benefits will vary for each individual grower and will depend on their starting point and individual property scenario therefore each circumstance needs to be carefully considered before making a change in management practice. In grazing, overall, reducing stocking rates comes at a cost (reduced benefits). However, when operating at low utilisation rates in wetter country, lowering stocking rates can potentially come at a benefit. With win-win potential, extension is preferred to assist farmer in changing management practices to improve their land condition. When reducing stocking rates comes at a cost, incentives may be applicable to support change among farmers. For banana cultivation, the results indicate that the transition to C and B class management practices is a worthwhile proposition from an economic perspective. For a change from B to A class farming systems however, it is not worthwhile from a financial perspective. This is largely due to the large capital investment associated with the change in irrigation system and negative impact in whole of farm gross margin. Overall, benefits will vary for each individual grower depending on their starting point and their individual property scenario. The results presented in this report are one possible set of figures to show the changes in profitability of a grower operating in different management classes. The results in this report are not prescriptive of every landholder. Landholders will have different costs and benefits from transitioning to improved practices, even if similar operations are practiced, hence it is recommended that landholders that are willing to change management undertake their own research and analysis into the expected costs and benefits for their own soil types and property circumstances.

Characterization of north-eastern Australian environments using APSIM for increasing rainfed maize production

Recurring water stresses are a major risk factor for rainfed maize cropping across the highly diverse agro-ecological environments of Queensland (Qld) and northern New South Wales (NNSW). Enhanced understanding of such agro-ecological diversity is necessary to more consistently sample target production environments for testing and targeting release of improved germplasm, and to improve the efficiency of the maize pre-breeding and breeding programs of Qld and New South Wales. Here, we used the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) – a well validated maize crop model to characterize the key distinctive water stress patterns and risk to production across the main maize growing regions of Qld and NNSW located between 15.8° and 31.5°S, and 144.5° and 151.8°E. APSIM was configured to simulate daily water supply demand ratios (SDRs) around anthesis as an indicator of the degree of water stress, and the final grain yield. Simulations were performed using daily climatic records during the period between 1890 and 2010 for 32 sites-soils in the target production regions. The runs were made assuming adequate nitrogen supply for mid-season maize hybrid Pioneer 3153. Hierarchical complete linkage analyses of the simulated yield resulted in five major clusters showing distinct probability distribution of the expected yields and geographic patterns. The drought stress patterns and their frequencies using SDRs were quantified using multivariate statistical methods. The identified stress patterns included no stress, mid-season (flowering) stress, and three terminal stresses differing in terms of severity. The combined frequency of flowering and terminal stresses was highest (82.9%), mainly in sites-soils combinations in the west of Qld and NNSW. Yield variability across the different sites-soils was significantly related to the variability in frequencies of water stresses. Frequencies of water stresses within each yield cluster tended to be similar, but different across clusters. Sites-soils falling within each yield cluster therefore could be treated as distinct maize production environments for testing and targeting newly developed maize cultivars and hybrids for adaptation to water stress patterns most common to those environments.

The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States(1) and elsewhere(2) have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30 degrees C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms. The predominant effects of EDD in APSIM are associated with increased vapour pressure deficit, which contributes to water stress in two ways: by increasing demand for soil water to sustain a given rate of carbon assimilation, and by reducing future supply of soil water by raising transpiration rates. APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2 degrees C warming than to a 20% precipitation reduction. The results suggest a relatively minor role for direct heat stress on reproductive organs at present temperatures in this region. Effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration efficiency should reduce yield sensitivity to EDD in the coming decades, but at most by 25%.

Agricultural intensification, priming for persistence and the emergence of Nipah virus: a lethal bat-borne zoonosis

Emerging zoonoses threaten global health, yet the processes by which they emerge are complex and poorly understood. Nipah virus (NiV) is an important threat owing to its broad host and geographical range, high case fatality, potential for human-to-human transmission and lack of effective prevention or therapies. Here, we investigate the origin of the first identified outbreak of NiV encephalitis in Malaysia and Singapore. We analyse data on livestock production from the index site (a commercial pig farm in Malaysia) prior to and during the outbreak, on Malaysian agricultural production, and from surveys of NiV's wildlife reservoir (flying foxes). Our analyses suggest that repeated introduction of NiV from wildlife changed infection dynamics in pigs. Initial viral introduction produced an explosive epizootic that drove itself to extinction but primed the population for enzootic persistence upon reintroduction of the virus. The resultant within-farm persistence permitted regional spread and increased the number of human infections. This study refutes an earlier hypothesis that anomalous El Nino Southern Oscillation-related climatic conditions drove emergence and suggests that priming for persistence drove the emergence of a novel zoonotic pathogen. Thus, we provide empirical evidence for a causative mechanism previously proposed as a precursor to widespread infection with H5N1 avian influenza and other emerging pathogens.

APSIM – Evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation

Agricultural systems models worldwide are increasingly being used to explore options and solutions for the food security, climate change adaptation and mitigation and carbon trading problem domains. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) is one such model that continues to be applied and adapted to this challenging research agenda. From its inception twenty years ago, APSIM has evolved into a framework containing many of the key models required to explore changes in agricultural landscapes with capability ranging from simulation of gene expression through to multi-field farms and beyond. Keating et al. (2003) described many of the fundamental attributes of APSIM in detail. Much has changed in the last decade, and the APSIM community has been exploring novel scientific domains and utilising software developments in social media, web and mobile applications to provide simulation tools adapted to new demands. This paper updates the earlier work by Keating et al. (2003) and chronicles the changing external challenges and opportunities being placed on APSIM during the last decade. It also explores and discusses how APSIM has been evolving to a “next generation” framework with improved features and capabilities that allow its use in many diverse topics.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.