Mudança no Critério de Contabilização de Instrumentos Financeiros pelo IASB: estudo de evento sobre os títulos soberanos da Grécia,

A alteração feita pelo IASB em 2008 na classificação dos instrumentos financeiros para reduzir as perdas bancárias com a crise do subprime e de títulos soberanos dos países-membros da União Europeia, após um pedido protocolado pela Comissão da União Europeia, motivou esta pesquisa. A referida alteração ensejou a mudança do critério de avaliação, que passou de valor justo para valor amortizado, para os instrumentos reclassificados, muito embora alguns bancos não tenham aderido à reclassificação, mantendo a orientação original que determinava a avaliação pelo valor justo. Através de Estudo de Evento testou-se a Hipótese de Eficiência de Mercado - HEM, analisando 33 instituições bancárias detentoras de títulos soberanos gregos. Embora a alteração tenha colaborado para que essas instituições bancárias protelassem essas perdas no resultado, não afetou os fluxos de caixa futuros. E como evidenciam os resultados da pesquisa, o mercado foi equitativo com essas instituições, penalizando-as com base no grau de exposição aos títulos gregos, independentemente do critério utilizado, corroborando a HEM: o valor de um ativo é o valor presente dos fluxos de caixa futuros e não dos lucros. Uma consequência importante foi que os governos, através da terceira revisão do Acordo de Capital de Basileia, adotaram medidas para regulamentar com mais rigor as instituições financeiras, no intuito que essas instituições, futuramente, possam suportar melhor os efeitos de uma crise financeira.

Economic feasibility of composite fish culture in leased-in village tanks of Kanyakumari district: an invesment analysis

Kanyakumari district belonging to the high rainfall zone has resource advantages for composite fish culture in the leased-in village tanks. There are more than 400 fish farmers operating in leased-in tanks following composite fish culture under the FFDA programme. To estimate the economic feasibility and financial viability of the enterprise, the present study was taken up. 38 fish farmers selected from the district provided the necessary information like capital investment, costs and return and constraints. The data collected were analysed and a farm nearest to the average farm situation was taken as the representative farm. Investment criteria like PayBack Period (PBP), Simple Rate of Returns (SRR), Net Present Value (NPV) and Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) were estimated taking into account a period of 10 years, the period for which the village tanks are leased-out to fish farmers under the FFDA programme. The analysis indicated the profitability of composite fish culture in village tanks in the district and the results are discussed with recommendations.

生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电的技术经济分析

介绍了生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电技术项目，确定了该项目经济效益的评价指标，定量计算了项目的投资回收期、净现值和内部收益率。同时还对燃料费用、上网电价和固定资产变化引起的敏感性进行分析。结果表明，该联合发电技术的动态投资回收期为9.05a，净现值为2770万元，内部收益率为15.82％，三个经济指标均符合行业标准。从经济角度看是完全可行的。

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

克拉2异常高压气藏地质特征及开发技术研究

Kela-2 gas field in Tarim Basin is the main supply source for West-to-East Pipeline project, also the largest abnormally-pressured gas field discovered in China currently. The geological characterization, fine geological modeling and field development plan are all the world-class difficult problems. This work includes an integrated geological and gas reservoir engineering study using advanced technology and approaches, the scientific development plan of Kela-2 gas field as well as the optimizations of the drilling, production and surface schemes. Then, it's expected that the Kela-2 gas field can be developed high-efficiently.Kuche depression is one part of the thrust belt of the South Tianshan Mountains, Kela-2 field is located at the Kelasu structural zone in the north of Kuche depression. The field territory is heavily rugged with deeply cut gullies, complex geological underground structure, variable rock types, thrust structure development. Therefore, considerable efforts have been made to develop an integrated technique to acquire, process and interpret the seismic data in complicated mountain region. Consequently a set of seismic-related techniques in the complicated mountain region has been developed and successfully utilized to interpret the structure of Kela-2 gas field.The main reservoir depositional system of Kela 2 gas field is a platform - fan delta - braided river system. The reservoir rocks are medium-fine and extremely fine grained sandstones with high structure maturity and low composition maturity. The pore system structure is featured by medium-small pore, medium-fine throat and medium-low assortment. The reservoir of Kela-2 gas field is characteristic of medium porosity and medium permeability. The pay zone is very thick and its lateral distribution is stable with a good connection of sand body. The overpressure is caused mainly by the strongly tectonic squash activities, and other factors including the later rapid raise and compartment of the high-pressure fluid, the injection of high-pressure fluid into the reservoir.Based on the deliverability tests available, the average binomial deliverability equation is provided applicable for the overall field. The experimental results of rock stress-sensitive tests are employed to analyze the change trend of petrophysical properties against net confining stress, and establish the stress-based average deliverability equation. The results demonstrate the effect of rock deformation on the deliverability is limited to less than 5% in the early period of Kela-2 gas field, indicating the insignificant effect on deliverability of rock deformation.In terms of the well pattern comparisons and development planning optimizations, it is recommended that the producers should be located almost linearly along the structural axis. A total of 9 producers have a stable gas supply volume of 10.76 BCMPY for 17 years. For Kela-2 gas field the total construction investment is estimated at ￥7,697,690,000 RMB with the internal earning rate of 25.02% after taxation, the net present value of ￥7,420,160,000 RMB and the payback period of 5.66 years. The high profits of this field development project are much satisfactory.

Valuing drinking water provision as an ecosystem service in the neuse river basin

The valuation of ecosystem services such as drinking water provision is of growing national and international interest. The cost of drinking water provision is directly linked to the quality of its raw water input, which is itself affected by upstream land use patterns. This analysis employs the benefit transfer method to quantify the economic benefits of water quality improvements for drinking water production in the Neuse River Basin in North Carolina. Two benefit transfer approaches, value transfer and function transfer, are implemented by combining the results of four previously published studies with data collected from eight Neuse Basin water treatment plants. The mean net present value of the cost reduction estimates for the entire Neuse Basin ranged from $2.7 million to $16.6 million for a 30% improvement in water quality over a 30-year period. The value-transfer approach tended to produce larger expected benefits than the function-transfer approach, but both approaches produced similar results despite the differences in their methodologies, time frames, study sites, and assumptions. © 2010 ASCE.

Asset pricing in created markets

We investigate the applicability of the present-value asset pricing model to fishing quota markets by applying instrumental variable panel data estimation techniques to 15 years of market transactions from New Zealand's individual transferable quota (ITQ) market. In addition to the influence of current fishing rents, we explore the effect of market interest rates, risk, and expected changes in future rents on quota asset prices. The results indicate that quota asset prices are positively related to declines in interest rates, lower levels of risk, expected increases in future fish prices, and expected cost reductions from rationalization under the quota system. © 2007 American Agricultural Economics Association.

Discounting the distant future: How much do uncertain rates increase valuations?

We demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated, the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of US interest rate data to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the "certainty-equivalent rate" that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Under the random walk model we find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls continuously from 4% to 2% after 100 years, 1% after 200 years, and 0.5% after 300 years. At horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40,000 relative to conventional discounting. Applied to climate change mitigation, we find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits. © 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Changes in pH at the exterior surface of plankton with ocean acidification

Anthropogenically released CO2 is dissolving in the ocean, causing a decrease in bulk-seawater pH (ocean acidification). Projections indicate that the pH will drop 0.3 units from its present value by 2100 (ref. 1). However, it is unclear how the growth of plankton is likely to respond. Using simulations we demonstrate how pH and carbonate chemistry at the exterior surface of marine organisms deviates increasingly from those of the bulk sea water as organism metabolic activity and size increases. These deviations will increase in the future as the buffering capacity of sea water decreases with decreased pH and as metabolic activity increases with raised seawater temperatures. We show that many marine plankton will experience pH conditions completely outside their recent historical range. However, ocean acidification is likely to have differing impacts on plankton physiology as taxon-specific differences in organism size, metabolic activity and growth rates during blooms result in very different microenvironments around the organism. This is an important consideration for future studies in ocean acidification as the carbonate chemistry experienced by most planktonic organisms will probably be considerably different from that measured in bulk-seawater samples. An understanding of these deviations will assist interpretation of the impacts of ocean acidification on plankton of different size and metabolic activity.

Outreach and Early Warning Systems (EWS) for the prevention of intensive care admission and death of critically ill adult patients on general hospital wards

BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that outreach and early warning systems (EWS) are an integral part of a hospital wide systems approach to improve the early identification and management of deteriorating patients on general hospital wards, the widespread implementation of these interventions in practice is not based on robust research evidence. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to determine the impact of critical care outreach services on hospital mortality rates. Secondary objectives included determining the effect of outreach services on intensive care unit (ICU) admission patterns, length of hospital stay and adverse events. SEARCH STRATEGY: The review authors searched the following electronic databases: EPOC Specialised Register, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and other Cochrane databases (all on The Cochrane Library 2006, Issue 3), MEDLINE (1996-June week 3 2006), EMBASE (1974-week 26 2006), CINAHL (1982-July week 5 2006), First Search (1992-2005) and CAB Health (1990-July 2006); also reference lists of relevant articles, conference abstracts, and made contact with experts and critical care organisations for further information. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), controlled before and after studies (CBAs) and interrupted time series designs (ITS) which measured hospital mortality, unanticipated ICU admissions, ICU readmissions, length of hospital stay and adverse events following implementation of outreach and EWS in a general hospital ward to identify deteriorating adult patients versus general hospital ward setting without outreach and EWS were included in the review. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three review authors independently extracted data and two review authors assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Summary statistics and descriptive summaries of primary and secondary outcomes are presented for each study. MAIN RESULTS: Two cluster-randomised control trials were included: one randomised at hospital level (23 hospitals in Australia) and one at ward level (16 wards in the UK). The primary outcome in the Australian trial (a composite score comprising incidence of unexpected cardiac arrests, unexpected deaths and unplanned ICU admissions) showed no statistical significant difference between control and medical emergency team (MET) hospitals (adjusted P value 0.640; adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83 to 1.16). The UK-based trial found that outreach reduced in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.32 to 0.85) compared with the control group. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence from this review highlights the diversity and poor methodological quality of most studies investigating outreach. The results of the two included studies showed either no evidence of the effectiveness of outreach or a reduction in overall mortality in patients receiving outreach. The lack of evidence on outreach requires further multi-site RCT's to determine potential effectiveness.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.

Avaliação técnica e econômica de um biodigestor de fluxo tubular: estudo de caso do modelo implantado na etec "orlando quagliato" em Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Economic, environmental and mixed objective functions in non-linear process optimization using simulated annealing and tabu search

Screening of topologies developed by hierarchical heuristic procedures can be carried out by comparing their optimal performance. In this work we will be exploiting mono-objective process optimization using two algorithms, simulated annealing and tabu search, and four different objective functions: two of the net present value type, one of them including environmental costs and two of the global potential impact type. The hydrodealkylation of toluene to produce benzene was used as case study, considering five topologies with different complexities mainly obtained by including or not liquid recycling and heat integration. The performance of the algorithms together with the objective functions was observed, analyzed and discussed from various perspectives: average deviation of results for each algorithm, capacity for producing high purity product, screening of topologies, objective functions robustness in screening of topologies, trade-offs between economic and environmental type objective functions and variability of optimum solutions.

Desenvolvimento de ferramenta de apoio ao dimensionamento de sistemas de autoconsumo fotovoltaico em ambiente doméstico

Nos últimos anos, tem-se assistido a uma maior preocupação com o meio ambiente, a atual conjuntura mundial está cada vez mais direcionada para a eficiência energética e para a utilização de fontes de energias renováveis. Os principais governos mundiais, incluindo o português, já perceberam a necessidade de enveredar por esse caminho e nesse sentido aplicam medidas que direcionam e consciencializam a população para a eficiência energética e para as energias renováveis. Em Portugal, o setor das energias renováveis assume atualmente uma posição de extrema importância, resultante da expressão que governo português tem vindo a implementar no panorama energético nacional, da qual resulta uma importante contribuição para o desenvolvimento económico, na criação de riqueza e geração de emprego. Neste contexto, e no caso particular da energia fotovoltaica têm sido implementadas medidas que incentivam a aposta nesta tecnologia, prova disso é o Decreto-Lei n.º 153/2014 aprovado em conselho de ministros em Setembro de 2014, que promove essencialmente o autoconsumo. O autoconsumo consiste na utilização de painéis fotovoltaicos para produção de energia elétrica para consumo próprio com ou sem recurso a equipamentos de acumulação. Em termos práticos, este sistema permite que os consumidores produzam a sua própria energia através de uma fonte renovável ao invés de adquirir essa energia na rede elétrica de serviço público. As políticas de incentivo ao autoconsumo proporcionam uma oportunidade para os consumidores interessados em investir na produção da própria energia elétrica, neste sentido e de forma a ajudar no dimensionamento de unidades de produção de autoconsumo foi desenvolvida, no âmbito desta tese, uma ferramenta de apoio ao dimensionamento de sistemas de autoconsumo fotovoltaico sem acumulação em ambiente doméstico, com o objetivo de estimar as necessidades de potência fotovoltaica a instalar em habitações de baixa tensão normal. Na base da construção desta ferramenta estiveram essencialmente os perfis de consumo, aprovados pela Entidade Reguladora dos Serviços Energéticos, de todos os clientes finais que não dispõem de equipamento de medição com registo de consumos e também a estimativa de produção fotovoltaica desenvolvida pelo Centro Comum de Investigação da Comissão Europeia. A aplicação desenvolvida tem como principal funcionalidade proporcionar ao utilizador o dimensionamento de unidades de produção de autoconsumo fotovoltaico, mediante a introdução de alguns dados tais como o distrito, a potência contratada, a tarifa e o consumo energético anual. Esta aplicação apresenta resultados relativos ao dimensionamento do sistema, como é o caso da potência a instalar e da estimativa de produção fotovoltaica anual, e resultados relativos à análise económica do sistema como é o caso do valor atual líquido, da taxa interna de rentabilidade e do payback do investimento.