Executive-controlled adaptive systems,

At head of title: Microwave Research Institute, Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn, Systems and Controls Group, R-688-58, PIB-616, contract no. DA-30-069-ORD-1560.

Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Alternative harvest strategies to alleviate predation bottlenecks: a bioeconomic modeling approach to inform adaptive management

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Using "war stories" to train for adaptive performance: Is it better to learn from error or success?

The study examines whether error exposure training can enhance adaptive performance. Fifty-nine experienced fire-fighters undergoing training for incident command participated in the study. War stories were developed based on real events to illustrate successful and unsuccessful incident command decisions. Two training methodologies were compared and evaluated. One group was trained using case studies that depicted incidents containing errors of management with severe consequences in fire-fighting outcomes (error-story training) while a second group was exposed to the same set of case studies except that the case studies depicted the incidents being managed without errors and their consequences (errorless-story training). The results provide some support for the hypothesis that it is better to learn from other people's errors than from their successes. Implications for training are discussed.

Implementing an adaptive TCP fairness while exploiting 802.11e over wireless mesh networks

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the use of 802.11e MAC to resolve the transmission control protocol (TCP) unfairness. Design/methodology/approach: The paper shows how a TCP sender may adapt its transmission rate using the number of hops and the standard deviation of recently measured round-trip times to address the TCP unfairness. Findings: Simulation results show that the proposed techniques provide even throughput by providing TCP fairness as the number of hops increases over a wireless mesh network (WMN). Research limitations/implications: Future work will examine the performance of TCP over routing protocols, which use different routing metrics. Other future work is scalability over WMNs. Since scalability is a problem with communication in multi-hop, carrier sense multiple access (CSMA) will be compared with time division multiple access (TDMA) and a hybrid of TDMA and code division multiple access (CDMA) will be designed that works with TCP and other traffic. Finally, to further improve network performance and also increase network capacity of TCP for WMNs, the usage of multiple channels instead of only a single fixed channel will be exploited. Practical implications: By allowing the tuning of the 802.11e MAC parameters that have previously been constant in 802.11 MAC, the paper proposes the usage of 802.11e MAC on a per class basis by collecting the TCP ACK into a single class and a novel congestion control method for TCP over a WMN. The key feature of the proposed TCP algorithm is the detection of congestion by measuring the fluctuation of RTT of the TCP ACK samples via the standard deviation, plus the combined the 802.11e AIFS and CWmin allowing the TCP ACK to be prioritised which allows the TCP ACKs will match the volume of the TCP data packets. While 802.11e MAC provides flexibility and flow/congestion control mechanism, the challenge is to take advantage of these features in 802.11e MAC. Originality/value: With 802.11 MAC not having flexibility and flow/congestion control mechanisms implemented with TCP, these contribute to TCP unfairness with competing flows. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Group Norms for Multi-Agent Organisations

Peer reviewed

Origin, colonization, adaptive radiation, intrainsular evolution snd species substitution processes in the fossil and living lizards of the Canary Islands

[EN] The Canary lsland lizards constitute a monophyletic group which separated from the rest of the family shortly after the first islands of the archipelago emerged. Five living and at least one recently extinct species belong to the genus Gallotia. In addition, two of the living species, Gallotia simonyi and Gallotia stehlini have become extinct on Gomera and Tenerife, respectively. Juveniles of all species present tricuspid teeth. This character is preserved in the adults with changes to one degree or another in G. galloti, G. caesaris, G. simonyi and G. goliath. In G. atlantica there are only two cuspids and G. stehlini has 4 or more.

Disaster preparedness, adaptive politics and lifelong learning: a case of Japan

Preparedness for disaster scenarios is progressively becoming an educational agenda for governments because of diversifying risks and threats worldwide. In disaster-prone Japan, disaster preparedness has been a prioritised national agenda, and preparedness education has been undertaken in both formal schooling and lifelong learning settings. This article examines the politics behind one prevailing policy discourse in the field of disaster preparedness referred to as ‘the four forms of aid’ – ‘kojo [public aid]’, ‘jijo [self-help]’, ‘gojo/kyojo [mutual aid]’. The study looks at the Japanese case, however, the significance is global, given that neo-liberal governments are increasingly having to deal with a range of disaster situations whether floods or terrorism, while implementing austerity measures. Drawing on the theory of the adaptiveness of neo-liberalism, the article sheds light on the hybridity of the current Abe government’s politics: a ‘dominant’ neo-liberal economic approach – public aid and self-help – and a ‘subordinate’ moral conservative agenda – mutual aid. It is argued that the four forms of aid are an effective ‘balancing act’, and that kyojo in particular is a powerful legitimator in the hybrid politics. The article concludes that a lifelong and life-wide preparedness model could be developed in Japan which has taken a social approach to lifelong learning. © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

High hydrostatic pressure adaptive strategies in an obligate piezophile Pyrococcus yayanosii

Pyrococcus yayanosii CH1, as the first and only obligate piezophilic hyperthermophilic microorganism discovered to date, extends the physical and chemical limits of life on Earth. It was isolated from the Ashadze hydrothermal vent at 4,100 m depth. Multi-omics analyses were performed to study the mechanisms used by the cell to cope with high hydrostatic pressure variations. In silico analyses showed that the P. yayanosii genome is highly adapted to its harsh environment, with a loss of aromatic amino acid biosynthesis pathways and the high constitutive expression of the energy metabolism compared with other non-obligate piezophilic Pyrococcus species. Differential proteomics and transcriptomics analyses identified key hydrostatic pressure-responsive genes involved in translation, chemotaxis, energy metabolism (hydrogenases and formate metabolism) and Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats sequences associated with Cellular apoptosis susceptibility proteins.

High protein flexibility and reduced hydration water dynamics are key pressure adaptive strategies in prokaryotes

Water and protein dynamics on a nanometer scale were measured by quasi-elastic neutron scattering in the piezophile archaeon Thermococcus barophilus and the closely related pressure-sensitive Thermococcus kodakarensis, at 0.1 and 40 MPa. We show that cells of the pressure sensitive organism exhibit higher intrinsic stability. Both the hydration water dynamics and the fast protein and lipid dynamics are reduced under pressure. In contrast, the proteome of T. barophilus is more pressure sensitive than that of T. kodakarensis. The diffusion coefficient of hydration water is reduced, while the fast protein and lipid dynamics are slightly enhanced with increasing pressure. These findings show that the coupling between hydration water and cellular constituents might not be simply a master-slave relationship. We propose that the high flexibility of the T. barophilus proteome associated with reduced hydration water may be the keys to the molecular adaptation of the cells to high hydrostatic pressure.

FROM GENES TO GENOMES: LOCAL ADAPTATION AND ADAPTIVE POTENTIAL IN TWO ARCTIC SEABIRDS

By investigating the mechanisms underlying the evolution and the maintenance of local adaptations we can help predict how species will adapt to future environmental change. In this thesis I investigate local adaptation and adaptive potential in thick-billed and common murres (Uria lomvia and U. aalge), two arctic seabirds of international conservation concern. Thanks to the recent development of new genomic methods, I address three major themes that are relevant for both the development of evolutionary theory and conservation: 1) the role of gene flow in the origin and maintenance of adaptation; 2) levels and distribution of standing genetic variation, and their contribution to adaptive potential; and 3) the genomic mechanisms maintaining an adaptive dimorphism within a single interbreeding population. First, I review the literature on genomics of local adaptation with gene flow and find that adaptation can be maintained despite gene flow, that gene flow itself can promote adaptation, and that genetic architecture is important in the origin and maintenance of local adaptations. Second, I genotype genome-wide markers and toll-like receptor genes (TLRs) to investigate local adaptation and adaptive potential in thick-billed murres. Thick-billed murres do not show signatures of local adaptation to their breeding grounds, but outlier loci group birds according to their non-breeding distributions, suggesting that selection and/or demographic connectivity in the winter may explain patterns of differentiation in this species. Genetic variation at TLRs does not decrease with increasing latitude as predicted, but tests of selection and measures of genetic diversity suggest differences in local selective regimes at most genes. Thick-billed murres show high levels of standing genetic variation and their adaptive potential will mostly depend on rate and magnitude of environmental change. Finally, I improve and annotate the assembly of the highly heterozygous genome of the thick-billed murre. Using this assembly as a reference, I perform whole genome analyses to investigate the genomic basis of an adaptive dimorphism in Atlantic common murres. I show for the first time that a 60 kb complex copy number variant in a non-coding region maintains differences in plumage and cold adaptation despite high gene flow.

The theory of complexity adapted to international relations: the behaviour of the visegrad-ukraine complex adaptive system since November 2013

La teoría de la complejidad, propia del estudio de fenómenos relativos a las ciencias naturales, se muestra como un marco alternativo para comprender los eventos emergentes que surgen en el sistema internacional. Esta monografía correlaciona el lenguaje de la complejidad con las relaciones internacionales, enfocándose en la relación Visegrad—Ucrania, ya que ha sido escenario de una serie de eventos emergentes e inesperados desde las protestas civiles de noviembre de 2013 en Kiev. El sistema complejo que existe entre el Grupo Visegrad y Ucrania se ve , desde entonces, en la necesidad de adaptarse ante los recurrentes eventos emergentes y de auto organizarse. De ese modo, podrá comportarse en concordancia con escenarios impredecibles, particularmente en lo relacionado con sus interacciones energéticas y sus interconexiones políticas.