Hayek and complexity: coordination, evolution and methodology in social adaptive systems

The affinity between the work of the Austrian economist Friedrich A. Hayek and the approach of Complexity Economics is widely recognized by the literature. In spite of this, there still is a lack of studies that seek to analyze in depth the relationship between Hayek and complexity. This dissertation is a contribution to the filling of this large gap in the literature. In the first part of the work, we analyze the various periods in the development of Hayek\'s vision of complexity, showing that this vision is strongly present in his works on knowledge, competition, methodology, evolution, and spontaneous order. In the second part, we explore how Hayek was influenced by two of the main precursors of modern complexity theory - cybernetics and general system theory - from the time he was working on his book on theoretical psychology, The Sensory Order (1952), until the end of his intellectual career.

Origin, colonization, adaptive radiation, intrainsular evolution snd species substitution processes in the fossil and living lizards of the Canary Islands

[EN] The Canary lsland lizards constitute a monophyletic group which separated from the rest of the family shortly after the first islands of the archipelago emerged. Five living and at least one recently extinct species belong to the genus Gallotia. In addition, two of the living species, Gallotia simonyi and Gallotia stehlini have become extinct on Gomera and Tenerife, respectively. Juveniles of all species present tricuspid teeth. This character is preserved in the adults with changes to one degree or another in G. galloti, G. caesaris, G. simonyi and G. goliath. In G. atlantica there are only two cuspids and G. stehlini has 4 or more.

Adaptive multiscale principal components analysis for online monitoring of wastewater treatment

Fault detection and isolation (FDI) are important steps in the monitoring and supervision of industrial processes. Biological wastewater treatment (WWT) plants are difficult to model, and hence to monitor, because of the complexity of the biological reactions and because plant influent and disturbances are highly variable and/or unmeasured. Multivariate statistical models have been developed for a wide variety of situations over the past few decades, proving successful in many applications. In this paper we develop a new monitoring algorithm based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA). It can be seen equivalently as making Multiscale PCA (MSPCA) adaptive, or as a multiscale decomposition of adaptive PCA. Adaptive Multiscale PCA (AdMSPCA) exploits the changing multivariate relationships between variables at different time-scales. Adaptation of scale PCA models over time permits them to follow the evolution of the process, inputs or disturbances. Performance of AdMSPCA and adaptive PCA on a real WWT data set is compared and contrasted. The most significant difference observed was the ability of AdMSPCA to adapt to a much wider range of changes. This was mainly due to the flexibility afforded by allowing each scale model to adapt whenever it did not signal an abnormal event at that scale. Relative detection speeds were examined only summarily, but seemed to depend on the characteristics of the faults/disturbances. The results of the algorithms were similar for sudden changes, but AdMSPCA appeared more sensitive to slower changes.

Global distribution and genetic discontinuities of mangroves - emerging patterns in the evolution of Rhizophora

Mangroves are often described as a group of plants with common features and common origins based mostly on their broad distributional patterns, together with an erroneous view of comparable abilities in long-distance dispersal. However, whilst mangroves have common needs to adapt to rigorous environmental constraints associated with regular seawater inundation, individual taxa have developed different strategies and characteristics. Since mangroves are a genetically diverse group of mostly flowering plants, they may also have evolved at quite different geological periods, dispersed at different rates from different locations and developed different adaptive strategies. Current distributions of individual taxa show numerous instances of unusual extant distribution which demonstrate finite dispersal limitations, especially across open water. Our preliminary assessment of broad distribution and discontinuities reveals important patterns. Discontinuities, in the absence of current dispersal barriers, may be explained by persistent past barriers. As we learn more about discontinuities, we are beginning to appreciate their immense implications and what they might tell us about past geological conditions and how these might have influenced the distribution and evolution of mangroves. In this article, we describe emerging patterns in genetic relationships and distributions based on both current knowledge and preliminary results of our studies of molecular and morphometric characteristics of Rhizophora species in the Indo West Pacific region.

Adaptive tool for automatic data collection of real electricity markets

The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in last years, as result of the new challenges that the electricity markets restructuring produced. This restructuring increased the competitiveness of the market, but with it its complexity. The growing complexity and unpredictability of the market’s evolution consequently increases the decision making difficulty. Therefore, the intervenient entities are forced to rethink their behaviour and market strategies. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available. These data, concerning innumerous regards of electricity markets operation, is accessible free of charge, and it is essential for understanding and suitably modelling electricity markets. This paper proposes a tool which is able to handle, store and dynamically update data. The development of the proposed tool is expected to be of great importance to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities.

Optimization of magneto-electro-elastic composite structures using differential evolution

Magneto-electro-elastic structures are built from materials that provide them the ability to convert in an interchangeable way, magnetic, electric and mechanical forms of energy. This characteristic can therefore provide an adaptive behaviour to a general configuration elastic structure, being commonly used in association with any type of composite material in an embedded or surface mounted mode, or by considering the usage of multiphase materials that enable achieving different magneto-electro-elastic properties. In a first stage of this work, a few cases studies will be considered to enable the validation of the model considered and the influence of the coupling characteristics of this type of adaptive structures. After that we consider the application of a recent computational intelligence technique, the differential evolution, in a deflection profile minimization problem. Studies on the influence of optimization parameters associated to the problem considered will be performed as well as the adoption of an adaptive scheme for the perturbation factor. Results are also compared with those obtained using an enhanced particle swarm optimization technique. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The genetic basis of morphological change in convergent evolution of natural populations: identifying candidate genes behind convergent evolution in blind cavefish astyanax mexicanus

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D. degree in Biology at the Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica, Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

Evolution of the gene regulatory network controlling flower dorsoventral asymmetry

Tese de Doutoramento em Biologia de Plantas.

Sex-dependent selection on an autosomal melanic female ornament promotes the evolution of sex ratio bias.

Sex-dependent selection often leads to spectacularly different phenotypes in males and females. In species in which sexual dimorphism is not complete, it is unclear which benefits females and males derive from displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex. In barn owls (Tyto alba), females exhibit on average larger black eumelanic spots than males but members of the two sexes display this trait in the same range of possible values. In a 12-year study, we show that selection exerted on spot size directly or on genetically correlated traits strongly favoured females with large spots and weakly favoured males with small spots. Intense directional selection on females caused an increase in spot diameter in the population over the study period. This increase is due to a change in the autosomal genes underlying the expression of eumelanic spots but not of sex-linked genes. Female-like males produced more daughters than sons, while male-like females produced more sons than daughters when mated to a small-spotted male. These sex ratio biases appear adaptive because sons of male-like females and daughters of female-like males had above-average survival. This demonstrates that selection exerted against individuals displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex promoted the evolution of specific life history strategies that enhance their fitness. This may explain why in many organisms sexual dimorphism is often not complete.

Evolution of decision-making and learning under fluctuating social environments

The capacity to learn to associate sensory perceptions with appropriate motor actions underlies the success of many animal species, from insects to humans. The evolutionary significance of learning has long been a subject of interest for evolutionary biologists who emphasize the bene¬fit yielded by learning under changing environmental conditions, where it is required to flexibly switch from one behavior to another. However, two unsolved questions are particularly impor¬tant for improving our knowledge of the evolutionary advantages provided by learning, and are addressed in the present work. First, because it is possible to learn the wrong behavior when a task is too complex, the learning rules and their underlying psychological characteristics that generate truly adaptive behavior must be identified with greater precision, and must be linked to the specific ecological problems faced by each species. A framework for predicting behavior from the definition of a learning rule is developed here. Learning rules capture cognitive features such as the tendency to explore, or the ability to infer rewards associated to unchosen actions. It is shown that these features interact in a non-intuitive way to generate adaptive behavior in social interactions where individuals affect each other's fitness. Such behavioral predictions are used in an evolutionary model to demonstrate that, surprisingly, simple trial-and-error learn¬ing is not always outcompeted by more computationally demanding inference-based learning, when population members interact in pairwise social interactions. A second question in the evolution of learning is its link with and relative advantage compared to other simpler forms of phenotypic plasticity. After providing a conceptual clarification on the distinction between genetically determined vs. learned responses to environmental stimuli, a new factor in the evo¬lution of learning is proposed: environmental complexity. A simple mathematical model shows that a measure of environmental complexity, the number of possible stimuli in one's environ¬ment, is critical for the evolution of learning. In conclusion, this work opens roads for modeling interactions between evolving species and their environment in order to predict how natural se¬lection shapes animals' cognitive abilities. - La capacité d'apprendre à associer des sensations perceptives à des actions motrices appropriées est sous-jacente au succès évolutif de nombreuses espèces, depuis les insectes jusqu'aux êtres hu¬mains. L'importance évolutive de l'apprentissage est depuis longtemps un sujet d'intérêt pour les biologistes de l'évolution, et ces derniers mettent l'accent sur le bénéfice de l'apprentissage lorsque les conditions environnementales sont changeantes, car dans ce cas il est nécessaire de passer de manière flexible d'un comportement à l'autre. Cependant, deux questions non résolues sont importantes afin d'améliorer notre savoir quant aux avantages évolutifs procurés par l'apprentissage. Premièrement, puisqu'il est possible d'apprendre un comportement incorrect quand une tâche est trop complexe, les règles d'apprentissage qui permettent d'atteindre un com¬portement réellement adaptatif doivent être identifiées avec une plus grande précision, et doivent être mises en relation avec les problèmes écologiques spécifiques rencontrés par chaque espèce. Un cadre théorique ayant pour but de prédire le comportement à partir de la définition d'une règle d'apprentissage est développé ici. Il est démontré que les caractéristiques cognitives, telles que la tendance à explorer ou la capacité d'inférer les récompenses liées à des actions non ex¬périmentées, interagissent de manière non-intuitive dans les interactions sociales pour produire des comportements adaptatifs. Ces prédictions comportementales sont utilisées dans un modèle évolutif afin de démontrer que, de manière surprenante, l'apprentissage simple par essai-et-erreur n'est pas toujours battu par l'apprentissage basé sur l'inférence qui est pourtant plus exigeant en puissance de calcul, lorsque les membres d'une population interagissent socialement par pair. Une deuxième question quant à l'évolution de l'apprentissage concerne son lien et son avantage relatif vis-à-vis d'autres formes plus simples de plasticité phénotypique. Après avoir clarifié la distinction entre réponses aux stimuli génétiquement déterminées ou apprises, un nouveau fac¬teur favorisant l'évolution de l'apprentissage est proposé : la complexité environnementale. Un modèle mathématique permet de montrer qu'une mesure de la complexité environnementale - le nombre de stimuli rencontrés dans l'environnement - a un rôle fondamental pour l'évolution de l'apprentissage. En conclusion, ce travail ouvre de nombreuses perspectives quant à la mo¬délisation des interactions entre les espèces en évolution et leur environnement, dans le but de comprendre comment la sélection naturelle façonne les capacités cognitives des animaux.

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.

Evolution of C(4) phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase in grasses, from genotype to phenotype.

C(4) photosynthesis is an adaptation over the classical C(3) pathway that has evolved multiple times independently. These convergences are accompanied by strong variations among the independent C(4) lineages. The decarboxylating enzyme used to release CO(2) around Rubisco particularly differs between C(4) species, a criterion used to distinguish three distinct biochemical C(4) subtypes. The phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (PCK) serves as a primary decarboxylase in a minority of C(4) species. This enzyme is also present in C(3) plants, where it is responsible for nonphotosynthetic functions. The genetic changes responsible for the evolution of C(4)-specific PCK are still unidentified. Using phylogenetic analyses on PCK sequences isolated from C(3) and C(4) grasses, this study aimed at resolving the evolutionary history of C(4)-specific PCK enzymes. Four independent evolutions of C(4)-PCK were shown to be driven by positive selection, and nine C(4)-adaptive sites underwent parallel genetic changes in different C(4) lineages. C(4)-adaptive residues were also observed in C(4) species from the nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate-malic enzyme (NADP-ME) subtype and particularly in all taxa where a PCK shuttle was previously suggested to complement the NADP-ME pathway. Acquisitions of C(4)-specific PCKs were mapped on a species tree, which revealed that the PCK subtype probably appeared at the base of the Chloridoideae subfamily and was then recurrently lost and secondarily reacquired at least three times. Linking the genotype to subtype phenotype shed new lights on the evolutionary transitions between the different C(4) subtypes.

Social evolution and defences against pathogens in ants

Pathogens represent a threat to all organisms, which generates a coevolutionary arms race. Social insects provide an interesting system to study host-pathogen interactions, because their defences depend on both the individual and collective responses, and involve genetic, physiological, behavioral and organizational mechanisms. In this thesis, I studied the evolutionary ecology of the resistance of ant queens and workers to natural fungal pathogens. Mechanisms that increase within-colony genetic diversity, like polyandry and polygyny, decrease relatedness among colony mates, which reduces the strength of selection for the evolution and maintenance of altruistic behavior. A leading hypothesis posits that intracolonial genetic diversity is adaptive because it reduces the risk of pathogen transmission. In chapter 1, I examine individual resistance in ant workers of Formica selysi, a species that shows natural variation in colony queen number. I discuss how this variation might be beneficial to resist natural fungal pathogens in groups. Overall my results indicate that there is genetic variation for fungal resistance in workers, a requirement for the 'genetic diversity for pathogen resistance' hypothesis. However I was not able to detect direct evidence that group diversity improves the survival of focal ants or reduces pathogen transmission. Thus, although the coexistence of multiple queens increases the within-colony variance in worker resistance, it remains unclear whether it protects ant colonies from pathogens and whether it is comparable to polyandry in other social insects. Traditionally, it was thought that the immune system of invertebrates lacked memory and specificity. In chapter 2, I investigate individual immunity in ant queens and show that they may be able to adjust their pathogen defences in response to their current environment by means of immune priming, which bears similarities with the adaptive immunity of vertebrates. However, my results indicate that the expression of immune priming in ant queens may be influenced by factors like mating status, mating conditions or host species. In addition, I showed that mating increases pathogen resistance in çhe two ant species that I studied (F. selysi and Lasius niger). This raises the question of how ant queens invest heavily in both maintenance and reproduction, which I discuss in the context of the evolution of social organization. In chapter 3,1 investigate if transgenerational priming against a fungal pathogen protects the queen progeny. I failed to detect this effect, and discuss why the detection of transgenerational immune priming in ants is a difficult task. Overall, this thesis illustrates some of the individual and collective mechanisms that likely played a role in allowing ants to become one of the most diverse and ecologically successful groups of organisms. -- Les pathogènes représentent une menace pour tous les organismes, ce qui a engendré l'évolution d'une course aux armements. Les insectes sociaux sont un système intéressant permettant d'étudier les interactions hôtes-pathogènes, car leurs défenses dépendent de réponses aussi bien individuelles que collectives, et impliquent des mécanismes génétiques, physiologiques, comportementaux et organisationnels. Dans cette thèse, j'ai étudié l'écologie évolutive de la résistance des reines et des ouvrières de fourmis exposées à des champignons pathogènes. Les facteurs augmentant la diversité génétique à l'intérieur de la colonie, comme la polyandrie et la polygynie, diminuent la parenté, ce qui réduit la pression de sélection pour l'évolution et la maintenance des comportements altruistes. Une hypothèse dominante stipule que la diversité génétique à l'intérieur de la colonie est adaptative car elle réduit le risque de transmission des pathogènes. Dans le chapitre 1, nous examinons la résistance individuelle à des pathogènes fongiques chez les ouvrières de Formica selysi, une espèce présentant une variation naturelle dans le nombre de reines par colonie. Nous discutons aussi de la possibilité que ces variations individuelles augmentent la capacité du groupe à résister à des champignons pathogènes. Dans l'ensemble, nos résultats indiquent une variation génétique dans la résistance aux champignons chez les ouvrières, un prérequis à l'hypothèse que la diversité génétique du groupe augmente la résistance aux pathogènes. Cependant, nous n'avons pas pu détecter une preuve directe que la diversité du groupe augmente la survie de fourmis focales ou réduise la transmission des pathogènes. Ainsi, bien que la coexistence de plusieurs reines augmente la variance dans la résistance des ouvrières à l'intérieur de la colonie, la question de savoir si cela protège les colonies de fourmis contre les pathogènes et si cela est comparable à la polyandrie chez d'autres insectes sociaux reste ouverte. Traditionnellement, il était admis que le système immunitaire des invertébrés ne possédait pas de mémoire et était non-spécifique. Dans le chapitre 2, nous avons étudié l'immunité individuelle chez des reines de fourmis. Nous avons montré que les reines pourraient être capables d'ajuster leurs défenses contre les pathogènes en réponse à leur environnement, grâce à une pré-activation du système immunitaire (« immune priming ») ressemblant à l'immunité adaptative des vertébrés. Cependant, nos résultats indiquent que cette pré-activation du système immunitaire chez les reines dépend du fait d'être accouplée ou non, des conditions d'accouplement, ou de l'espèce. De plus, nous avons montré que l'accouplement augmente la résistance aux pathogènes chez les deux espèces que nous avons étudié (F. selysi et Lasius niger). Ceci pose la question de la capacité des reines à investir fortement aussi bien dans la maintenance que dans la reproduction, ce que nous discutons dans le contexte de l'évolution de l'organisation sociale. Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions si la pré-activation trans-générationelle du système immunitaire [« trans-generational immune priming ») protège la progéniture de la reine contre un champignon pathogène. Nous n'avons par réussi à détecter cet effet, et discutons des raisons pour lesquelles la détection de la pré-activation trans-générationelle du système immunitaire chez les fourmis est une tâche difficile. Dans l'ensemble, cette thèse illustre quelques-uns des mécanismes individuels et collectifs qui ont probablement contribué à la diversité et à l'important succès écologique des fourmis.