Impacts of Climate Change on European Marine Ecosystems: Observations, Expectations and Indicators

The Northern Hemisphere has been warmer since 1980 than at any other time during the last 2000 years. The observed increase in temperature has been generally higher in northern than in southern European seas, and higher in enclosed than in open seas. Although European marine ecosystems are influenced by many other factors, such as nutrient enrichment and overfishing, every region has shown at least some changes that were most likely attributable to recent climate change. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be (further) northward movement of species, leading to a switch from polar to more temperate species in the northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas, and subtropical species moving northward to temperate regions such as the Iberian upwelling margin. For seas that are highly influenced by river runoff, such as the Baltic Sea, an increase in freshwater due to enhanced rainfall will lead to a shift from marine to more brackish and even freshwater species. If semi-enclosed systems such as the Mediterranean and the Black Sea lose their endemic species, the associated niches will probably be filled by species originating from adjacent waters and, possibly, with species transported from one region to another via ballast water and the Suez Canal. A better understanding of potential climate change impacts (scenarios) at both regional and local levels, the development of improved methods to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections, the construction of usable climate change indicators, and an improvement of the interface between science and policy formulation in terms of risk assessment will be essential to formulate and inform better adaptive strategies to address the inevitable consequences of climate change.

Evolution of Marine Organisms under Climate Change at Different Levels of Biological Organisation

Research to date has suggested that both individual marine species and ecological processes are expected to exhibit diverse responses to the environmental effects of climate change. Evolutionary responses can occur on rapid (ecological) timescales, and yet studies typically do not consider the role that adaptive evolution will play in modulating biological responses to climate change. Investigations into such responses have typically been focused at particular biological levels (e.g., cellular, population, community), often lacking interactions among levels. Since all levels of biological organisation are sensitive to global climate change, there is a need to elucidate how different processes and hierarchical interactions will influence species fitness. Therefore, predicting the responses of communities and populations to global change will require multidisciplinary efforts across multiple levels of hierarchy, from the genetic and cellular to communities and ecosystems. Eventually, this may allow us to establish the role that acclimatisation and adaptation will play in determining marine community structures in future scenarios.

A review of climate change and the implementation of marine biodiversity legislation in the United Kingdom

1. Marine legislation, the key means by which the conservation of marine biodiversity is achieved, has been developing since the 1960s. In recent decades, an increasing focus on ‘holistic’ policy development is evident, compared with earlier ‘piecemeal’ sectoral approaches. Important marine legislative tools being used in the United Kingdom, and internationally, include the designation of marine protected areas and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) with its aim of meeting ‘Good Environmental Status’ (GES) for European seas by 2020. 2. There is growing evidence of climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, which may compromise the effectiveness of any legislation intended to promote sustainable marine resource management. 3. A review of key marine biodiversity legislation relevant to the UK shows climate change was not considered in the drafting of much early legislation. Despite the huge increase in knowledge of climate change impacts in recent decades, legislation is still limited in how it takes these impacts into account. There is scope, however, to account for climate change in implementing much of the legislation through (a) existing references to environmental variability; (b) review cycles; and (c) secondary legislation and complementary policy development. 4. For legislation relating to marine protected areas (e.g. the EC Habitats and Birds Directives), climate change has generally not been considered in the site-designation process, or for ongoing management, with the exception of the Marine (Scotland) Act. Given that changing environmental conditions (e.g. rising temperatures and ocean acidification) directly affect the habitats and species that sites are designated for, how this legislation is used to protect marine biodiversity in a changing climate requires further consideration. 5. Accounting for climate change impacts on marine biodiversity in the development and implementation of legislation is vital to enable timely, adaptive management responses. Marine modelling can play an important role in informing management decisions.

The adaptive value of polyembryony.

From an evolutionary standpoint, the production of offspring is the single most important aspect of an animal's life. Offspring carry an individual's genes into the next generation and it is the differential representation of genes in a population that drives evolutionary change. There are a variety of ways in which animals create offspring, ranging from cases where parents make identical copies of themselves by budding or parthenogenesis, to the standard case in vertebrates where gametes from a male and female fuse in sexual reproduction to produce the next generation. In this article we describe an usual variant of sexual reproduction, polyembryony.

Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change

Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two singlecopy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming.

Adaptive Dialogue Strategy Selection through Imprecise Probabilistic Query Answering

In a human-computer dialogue system, the dialogue strategy can range from very restrictive to highly flexible. Each specific dialogue style has its pros and cons and a dialogue system needs to select the most appropriate style for a given user. During the course of interaction, the dialogue style can change based on a user’s response and the system observation of the user. This allows a dialogue system to understand a user better and provide a more suitable way of communication. Since measures of the quality of the user’s interaction with the system can be incomplete and uncertain, frameworks for reasoning with uncertain and incomplete information can help the system make better decisions when it chooses a dialogue strategy. In this paper, we investigate how to select a dialogue strategy based on aggregating the factors detected during the interaction with the user. For this purpose, we use probabilistic logic programming (PLP) to model probabilistic knowledge about how these factors will affect the degree of freedom of a dialogue. When a dialogue system needs to know which strategy is more suitable, an appropriate query can be executed against the PLP and a probabilistic solution with a degree of satisfaction is returned. The degree of satisfaction reveals how much the system can trust the probability attached to the solution.

System level DSP synthesis using voltage overscaling, unequal error protection & adaptive quality tuning

In this paper, we propose a system level design approach considering voltage over-scaling (VOS) that achieves error resiliency using unequal error protection of different computation elements, while incurring minor quality degradation. Depending on user specifications and severity of process variations/channel noise, the degree of VOS in each block of the system is adaptively tuned to ensure minimum system power while providing "just-the-right" amount of quality and robustness. This is achieved, by taking into consideration system level interactions and ensuring that under any change of operating conditions only the "lesscrucial" computations, that contribute less to block/system output quality, are affected. The design methodology applied to a DCT/IDCT system shows large power benefits (up to 69%) at reasonable image quality while tolerating errors induced by varying operating conditions (VOS, process variations, channel noise). Interestingly, the proposed IDCT scheme conceals channel noise at scaled voltages. ©2009 IEEE.

Logic and Memory Design Based on Unequal Error Protection for Voltage-scalable, Robust and Adaptive DSP Systems

In this paper, we propose a system level design approach considering voltage over-scaling (VOS) that achieves error resiliency using unequal error protection of different computation elements, while incurring minor quality degradation. Depending on user specifications and severity of process variations/channel noise, the degree of VOS in each block of the system is adaptively tuned to ensure minimum system power while providing "just-the-right" amount of quality and robustness. This is achieved, by taking into consideration block level interactions and ensuring that under any change of operating conditions, only the "less-crucial" computations, that contribute less to block/system output quality, are affected. The proposed approach applies unequal error protection to various blocks of a system-logic and memory-and spans multiple layers of design hierarchy-algorithm, architecture and circuit. The design methodology when applied to a multimedia subsystem shows large power benefits ( up to 69% improvement in power consumption) at reasonable image quality while tolerating errors introduced due to VOS, process variations, and channel noise.

Tracking Change in Northern Ireland Policing: Temporal Phases and Key Themes

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the change process in Northern Ireland policing through an analysis of temporally bracketed change phases and key change delivery themes ranging from 1996 to 2012.

Design/methodology/approach
– The research approach adopted is process based, longitudinal and multi-method, utilising “temporal bracketing” to determine phases of change and conjunctural reasoning to unravel the systematic factors interacting over time, within the case.

Findings
– The paper identifies and temporally brackets four phases of change: “Tipping point”; “Implementation, Symbolic Modification and Resistance”; “Power Assisted Steering”; and “A Return to Turbulence”, identifies four themes that emerge from RUC-PSNI experience: the role of adaptive leadership; pace and sequencing of change implementation; sufficient resourcing; and the impact of external agents acting as boundary spanners, and comments on the prominence of these themes through the phases. The paper goes on to reflect upon how these phases and themes inform our understanding of organisational change within policing organisations generally and within politically pressurised transition processes.

Originality/value
– The contribution of the paper lies in the documentation of an almost unique organisational case in an environmentally forced change process. In this it contains lessons for other organisations facing similar, if less extreme challenges and presents an example of intense change analysed longitudinally.

Homeless young people, families and change.:Family support as a facilitator to exiting homelessness.

The families of homeless young people are most often portrayed as a precipitating factor in their homelessness. However, recent studies, particularly those taking a longitudinal approach, have drawn attention to the enabling role of family members and their positive influence on the housing trajectories of homeless youth. Drawing on selected findings from an ongoing longitudinal qualitative study of homeless young people in Dublin, Ireland, this paper aims to build on this relatively fertile area of research. We demonstrate the supportive role of the families of young people who experience homelessness (often as a consequence of difficult family environments) and specifically examine how family re-engagement is negotiated and achieved. The findings highlight a number of dimensions of transition and change. Prominent among these is the importance of renewed trust and communication. Young people and their parents also had to accept responsibility for areas of life that previously served to undermine their relationships and were implicated in the circumstances surrounding a young person's premature home-leaving. Tensions and resistances on the part of young people are highlighted, demonstrating the adaptive mechanisms at work as they attempt to re-engage with family members. The implications of the findings for social work intervention with homeless youth are discussed.

An Adaptive Predictive Control Strategy for RMPPT under Partially Shaded Conditions

As one of key technologies in photovoltaic converter control, Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) methods can keep the power conversion efficiency as high as nearly 99% under the uniform solar irradiance condition. However, these methods may fail when shading conditions occur and the power loss can over as much as 70% due to the multiple maxima in curve in shading conditions v.s. single maximum point in uniformly solar irradiance. In this paper, a Real Maximum Power Point Tracking (RMPPT) strategy under Partially Shaded Conditions (PSCs) is introduced to deal with this kind of problems. An optimization problem, based on a predictive model which will change adaptively with environment, is developed to tracking the global maxima and corresponding adaptive control strategy is presented. No additional circuits are required to obtain the environment uncertainties. Finally, simulations show the effectiveness of proposed method.

A constructive approach for examination timetabling based on adaptive decomposition and ordering

In this study, we investigate an adaptive decomposition and ordering strategy that automatically divides examinations into difficult and easy sets for constructing an examination timetable. The examinations in the difficult set are considered to be hard to place and hence are listed before the ones in the easy set in the construction process. Moreover, the examinations within each set are ordered using different strategies based on graph colouring heuristics. Initially, the examinations are placed into the easy set. During the construction process, examinations that cannot be scheduled are identified as the ones causing infeasibility and are moved forward in the difficult set to ensure earlier assignment in subsequent attempts. On the other hand, the examinations that can be scheduled remain in the easy set.

Within the easy set, a new subset called the boundary set is introduced to accommodate shuffling strategies to change the given ordering of examinations. The proposed approach, which incorporates different ordering and shuffling strategies, is explored on the Carter benchmark problems. The empirical results show that the performance of our algorithm is broadly comparable to existing constructive approaches.

How the gut links innate and adaptive immunity.

Mucosal surfaces represent the main sites in which environmental microorganisms and antigens interact with the host. Sentinel cells, including epithelial cells, lumenal macrophages, and intraepithelial dendritic cells, continuously sense the environment and coordinate defenses for the protection of mucosal tissues. The mucosal epithelial cells are crucial actors in coordinating defenses. They sense the outside world and respond to environmental signals by releasing chemokines and cytokines that recruit inflammatory and immune cells to control potential infectious agents and to attract cells able to trigger immune responses. Among immune cells, dendritic cells (DC) play a key role in controlling adaptive immune responses, due to their capacity to internalize foreign materials and to present antigens to naive T and B lymphocytes, locally or in draining organized lymphoid tissues. Immune cells recruited in epithelial tissues can, in turn, act upon the epithelial cells and change their phenotype in a process referred to as epithelial metaplasia.

Carbohydrate refeeding rapidly reverses the adaptive upregulation of human skeletal muscle pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase following a high fat diet

The time course for the reversal of the adaptive increase in pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase (PDK) activity following a 6d high fat diet (HP: 4.2 ± 0.2 % carbohydrate; 75.6 ± 0.4 % fat; 19.5 ± 0.8 % protein) was investigated in human skeletal muscle (vastus lateralis). HF feeding increased PDK activity by 44% (from 0.081 ± 0.025 min"' to 0.247 ± 0.025 mm\p < 0.05). Following carbohydrate re-feeding, (88% carbohydrate; 5% fat; 7% protein), PDK activity had returned to baseline (0.111 ± 0.014 min"') within 3h of re-feeding. The active fraction of pyruvate dehydrognease (PDHa) was depressed following 6d of the HF diet (from 0.89 ± 0.21 mmol/min/kg WW to 0.32 ± 0.05 mmol/min/kg ww,p <0.05) and increased to pre-HF levels by 45 min of post re-feeding (0.74 ±0.19 mmol/min/kg ww) and remained elevated for 3h. Western blotting analysis of the PDK isoforms, PDK4 and PDK2, revealed a 31% increase in PDK4 protein content following the HF diet, with no change in PDK2 protein. This adaptive increase in PDK4 protein content was reversed with carbohydrate re-feeding. It was concluded that the adaptive up-regulation in PDK activity and PDK4 protein content was fiilly reversed by 3h following carbohydrate re-feeding.

Priming the Governance System for Climate Change Adaptation: The Application of a Social Ecological Inventory (SEI) to Engage Actors in Niagara, Canada

Adaptive systems of governance are increasingly gaining attention in respect to complex and uncertain social-ecological systems. Adaptive co-management is one strategy to make adaptive governance operational and holds promise with respect to community climate change adaptation as it facilitates participation and learning across scales and fosters adaptive capacity and resilience. Developing tools which hasten the realization of such approaches are growing in importance. This paper describes explores the Social Ecological Inventory (SEI) as a tool to 'prime' a regional climate change adaptation network. The SEI tool draws upon the social-ecological systems approach in which social and ecological systems are considered linked. SEIs bridge the gap between conventional stakeholder analysis and biological inventories and take place through a six phase process. A case study describes the results of applying an SEI to prime an adaptive governance network for climate change adaptation in the Niagara Region of Canada. Lessons learned from the case study are discussed and highlight how the SEI catalyzed the adaptive co-management process in the case. Future avenues for SEIs in relation to climate change adaptation emerge from this exploratory work and offer opportunities to inform research and adaptation planning.