A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision

Intelligent decision making in electricity markets: simulated annealing Q-Learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS, a system that provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims at enhancing ALBidS competence in endowing market players with adequate strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible actions. These actions are defined accordingly to the most probable points of bidding success. With the purpose of accelerating the convergence process, a simulated annealing based algorithm is included.

Intelligent recommendation system for e-learning platforms

As more and more digital resources are available, finding the appropriate document becomes harder. Thus, a new kind of tools, able to recommend the more appropriated resources according the user needs, becomes even more necessary. The current project implements an intelligent recommendation system for elearning platforms. The recommendations are based on one hand, the performance of the user during the training process and on the other hand, the requests made by the user in the form of search queries. All information necessary for decision-making process of recommendation will be represented in the user model. This model will be updated throughout the target user interaction with the platform.

Sistema de recomendação para plataformas de e-learning

O aumento do número de recursos digitais disponíveis dificulta a tarefa de pesquisa dos recursos mais relevantes, no sentido de se obter o que é mais relevante. Assim sendo, um novo tipo de ferramentas, capaz de recomendar os recursos mais apropriados às necessidades do utilizador, torna-se cada vez mais necessário. O objetivo deste trabalho de I&D é o de implementar um módulo de recomendação inteligente para plataformas de e-learning. As recomendações baseiam-se, por um lado, no perfil do utilizador durante o processo de formação e, por outro lado, nos pedidos efetuados pelo utilizador, através de pesquisas [Tavares, Faria e Martins, 2012]. O e-learning 3.0 é um projeto QREN desenvolvido por um conjunto de organizações e tem com objetivo principal implementar uma plataforma de e-learning. Este trabalho encontra-se inserido no projeto e-learning 3.0 e consiste no desenvolvimento de um módulo de recomendação inteligente (MRI). O MRI utiliza diferentes técnicas de recomendação já aplicadas noutros sistemas de recomendação. Estas técnicas são utilizadas para criar um sistema de recomendação híbrido direcionado para a plataforma de e-learning. Para representar a informação relevante, sobre cada utilizador, foi construído um modelo de utilizador. Toda a informação necessária para efetuar a recomendação será representada no modelo do utilizador, sendo este modelo atualizado sempre que necessário. Os dados existentes no modelo de utilizador serão utilizados para personalizar as recomendações produzidas. As recomendações estão divididas em dois tipos, a formal e a não formal. Na recomendação formal o objetivo é fazer sugestões relacionadas a um curso específico. Na recomendação não-formal, o objetivo é fazer sugestões mais abrangentes onde as recomendações não estão associadas a nenhum curso. O sistema proposto é capaz de sugerir recursos de aprendizagem, com base no perfil do utilizador, através da combinação de técnicas de similaridade de palavras, um algoritmo de clustering e técnicas de filtragem [Tavares, Faria e Martins, 2012].

Orchestration of e-learning services for automatic evaluation of programming exercises

Managing programming exercises require several heterogeneous systems such as evaluation engines, learning objects repositories and exercise resolution environments. The coordination of networks of such disparate systems is rather complex. These tools would be too specific to incorporate in an e-Learning platform. Even if they could be provided as pluggable components, the burden of maintaining them would be prohibitive to institutions with few courses in those domains. This work presents a standard based approach for the coordination of a network of e-Learning systems participating on the automatic evaluation of programming exercises. The proposed approach uses a pivot component to orchestrate the interaction among all the systems using communication standards. This approach was validated through its effective use on classroom and we present some preliminary results.

Parallel real-time support for distributed adaptive embedded applications

Real-time embedded applications require to process large amounts of data within small time windows. Parallelize and distribute workloads adaptively is suitable solution for computational demanding applications. The purpose of the Parallel Real-Time Framework for distributed adaptive embedded systems is to guarantee local and distributed processing of real-time applications. This work identifies some promising research directions for parallel/distributed real-time embedded applications.

Mobile and web tools for participative learning

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa, para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Towards e-learning 2.0: case study of an e-learning environment

In these days the learning experience is no longer confined within the four walls of a classroom. Computers and primarily the internet have broadened this horizon by creating a way of delivering education that is known as e-learning. In the meantime, the internet, or more precisely, the Web is heading towards a new paradigm where the user is no longer just a consumer of information and becomes an active part in the communication. This two-way channel where the user takes the role of the producer of content triggered the appearance of new types of services such as Social Networks, Blogs and Wikis. To seize this second generation of communities and services, educational vendors are willing to develop e-learning systems focused on the new and emergent users needs. This paper describes the analysis and specification of an e-learning environment at our School (ESEIG) towards this new Web generation, called PEACE – Project for ESEIG Academic Environment. This new model relies on the integration of several services controlled by teachers and students such as social networks, repositories libraries, e-portfolios and e-conference sytems, intelligent tutors, recommendation systems, automatic evaluators, virtual classrooms and 3D avatars.

Sequencing educational resources with Seqins

Existing adaptive educational hypermedia systems have been using learning resources sequencing approaches in order to enrich the learning experience. In this context, educational resources, either expository or evaluative, play a central role. However, there is a lack of tools that support sequencing essentially due to the fact that existing specifications are complex. This paper presents Seqins as a sequencing tool of digital educational resources. Seqins includes a simple and flexible sequencing model that will foster heterogeneous students to learn at different rhythms. The tool communicates through the IMS Learning Tools Interoperability specification with a plethora of e-learning systems such as learning management systems, repositories, authoring and automatic evaluation systems. In order to validate Seqins we integrate it in an e-learning Ensemble framework instance for the computer programming learning domain.

A survey of e-learning content aggregation standards

As e-learning gradually evolved many specialized and disparate systems appeared to fulfil the needs of teachers and students, such as repositories of learning objects, authoring tools, intelligent tutors and automatic evaluators. This heterogeneity raises interoperability issues giving the standardization of content an important role in e-learning. This article presents a survey on current e-learning content aggregation standards focusing on their internal organization and packaging. This study is part of an effort to choose the most suitable specifications and standards for an e-learning framework called Ensemble defined as a conceptual tool to organize a network of e-learning systems and services for domains with complex evaluation.

Adapting Meeting Tools to Agent Decision

Electricity markets are complex environments comprising several negotiation mechanisms. MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This paper aims to complement ALBidS strategies usage by MASCEM players, providing, through the Six Thinking Hats group decision technique, a means to combine them and take advantages from their different perspectives. The combination of the different proposals resulting from ALBidS’ strategies is performed through the application of a Genetic Algorithm, resulting in an evolutionary learning approach.

Demonstration of the Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but with exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets’ scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behavior. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This paper presents the Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) – a simulator based on multi-agent technology that provides a realistic platform to simulate electricity markets, the numerous negotiation opportunities and the participating entities.

Strategic Bidding for Electricity Markets Negotiation Using Support Vector Machines

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network, originating promising results. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL - Iberian market operator.

Particle Swarm Optimization of Electricity Market Negotiating Players Portfolio

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which performs realistic simulations of the electricity markets. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from each market context. However, it is still necessary to adequately optimize the players’ portfolio investment. For this purpose, this paper proposes a market portfolio optimization method, based on particle swarm optimization, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities (bilateral negotiation, market sessions, and operation in different markets) and the negotiation context such as the peak and off-peak periods of the day, the type of day (business day, weekend, holiday, etc.) and most important, the renewable based distributed generation forecast. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator – MIBEL.