Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Working in partnership to develop engineering capability in energy efficiency

Energy efficiency is a complex topic to integrate into higher education curricula, with limited success internationally or in Australia. This paper discusses one of the successful initiatives within the Energy Efficiency Training Program, which was jointly managed and implemented by the New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage and Department of Education and Communities. The state government initiative aimed to increase the knowledge and skills of the New South Wales workforce, help business to identify and implement energy efficiency projects, and provide professional development for the training providers. Key sectors targeted included property, construction, manufacturing and services. The Program was externally evaluated over the three years 2011 to 2013 and a range of insights were gained through these facilitated reflective opportunities, confirming and building upon literature on the topic to date. This paper presents lessons learned from the engineering part of the program (‘the project’), spanning government agencies, academic institutions, and academia. The paper begins with a contextual summary, followed by a synthesis of key learnings and implications for future training initiatives. It is intended that sharing these lessons will contribute to literature in the field, and assist other organisations in Australia and overseas planning similar initiatives.

The Performance Nexus - A framework for improving energy efficiency in existing commercial buildings by considering a whole-of-building approach

Efforts to reduce carbon emissions in the buildings sector have been focused on encouraging green design, construction and building operation; however, the business case is not very compelling if considering the energy cost savings alone. In recent years green building has been driven by a sense that it will improve the productivity of occupants,i something with much greater economic returns than energy savings. Reducing energy demand in green commercial buildings in a way that encourages greater productivity is not yet well understood as it involves a set of complex and interdependent factors. This paper outlines an investigation into these factors and focuses on better understanding the performance of and interaction between: design elements, internal environmental quality, occupant experience, tenant/leasing agreements, and building regulation and management. In doing so the paper presents a framework for improving energy efficiency in existing commercial buildings by considering a range of interconnected and synergistic elements.

State of Energy Efficiency Education in Australian Technical & Further Education (TAFE) : A Report to the Australian Government Skills for the Carbon Challenge Initiative, The Natural Edge Project (TNEP), Queensland University of Technology

The Australian Government’s Skills for the Carbon Challenge (SCC) initiative aims to accelerate industry and the education sectors response to climate change. As part of the SCC initiative, the Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIICCSRTE) provided funding to investigate the state of energy efficiency education in engineering-related Australian Technical and Further Education (TAFE) Programs. The following document reports on the outcomes of a multi-stage consultation project that engaged with participants from over 80% of TAFE institutions across Australia with the aim of supporting and enhancing future critical skills development in this area. Specifically, this report presents the findings of a national survey, based on a series of TAFE educator focus groups, conducted in May 2013 aimed at understanding the experiences and insights of Australian TAFE educators teaching engineering-related courses. Responses were received from 224 TAFE Educators across 50 of the 61 TAFE institutions in Australia (82% response rate).

An investigation into increasing the extent of energy efficiency knowledge and skills in engineering education

Today, many sectors across society are recognising the need to swiftly reduce their growing energy demand, as well as meeting remaining demand with low emissions options. A key ingredient to addressing such issues is equipping professionals – in particular engineers – with emerging energy efficiency knowledge and skills. This paper responds to an identified engineering education gap in Australia, by investigating options to increase energy efficiency content for both undergraduate and postgraduate engineers. The authors summarise the findings of the multi-stage methodology funded by the National Framework for Energy Efficiency (2008-2009), highlighting identified key barriers and benefits to such curriculum renewal. The findings are intended for use by engineering departments, accreditation agencies, professional bodies and government, to identify opportunities for moving forward based on rigorous research, and then to strategically plan the transition. This process, focused on energy efficiency, may also provide valuable parallels for a range of sustainable engineering related topics.

Collaborative resource development for energy efficiency education

BACKGROUND There is a growing volume of open source ‘education material’ on energy efficiency now available however the Australian government has identified a need to increase the use of such materials in undergraduate engineering education. Furthermore, there is a reported need to rapidly equip engineering graduates with the capabilities in conducting energy efficiency assessments, to improve energy performance across major sectors of the economy. In January 2013, building on several years of preparatory action-research initiatives, the former Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIICCSRTE) offered $600,000 to develop resources for energy efficiency related graduate attributes, targeting Engineers Australia college disciplines, accreditation requirements and opportunities to address such requirements. PURPOSE This paper discusses a $430,000 successful bid by a university consortium led by QUT and including RMIT, UA, UOW, and VU, to design and pilot several innovative, targeted open-source resources for curriculum renewal related to energy efficiency assessments, in Australian engineering programs (2013-2014), including ‘flat-pack’, ‘media-bites’, ‘virtual reality’ and ‘deep dive’ case study initiatives. DESIGN/ METHOD The paper draws on literature review and lessons learned by the consortium partners in resource development over the last several years to discuss methods for selecting key graduate attributes and providing targeted resources, supporting materials, and innovative delivery options to assist universities deliver knowledge and skills to develop such attributes. This includes strategic industry and key stakeholders engagement. The paper also discusses processes for piloting, validating, peer reviewing, and refining these resources using a rigorous and repeatable approach to engaging with academic and industry colleagues. RESULTS The paper provides an example of innovation in resource development through an engagement strategy that takes advantage of existing networks, initiatives, and funding arrangements, while informing program accreditation requirements, to produce a cost-effective plan for rapid integration of energy efficiency within education. By the conference, stakeholder workshops will be complete. Resources will be in the process of being drafted, building on findings from the stakeholder engagement workshops. Reporting on this project “in progress” provides a significant opportunity to share lessons learned and take on board feedback and input. CONCLUSIONS This paper provides a useful reference document for others considering significant resource development in a consortium approach, summarising benefits and challenges. The paper also provides a basis for documenting the second half of the project, which comprises piloting resources and producing a ‘good practice guide’ for energy efficiency related curriculum renewal.

Impacts of vessel capacity reduction programmes on efficiency in fisheries : the case of Australia’s multispecies northern prawn fishery

Capacity reduction programmes, in the form of buybacks or decommissioning, have had relatively widespread application in fisheries in the US, Europe and Australia. A common criticism of such programmes is that they remove the least efficient vessels first, resulting in an increase in average efficiency of the remaining fleet, which tends to increase the effective fishing power of the remaining fleet. In this paper, the effects of a buyback programme on average technical efficiency in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery are examined using a multi-output production function approach with an explicit inefficiency model. As expected, the results indicate that average efficiency of the remaining vessels was generally greater than that of the removed vessels. Further, there was some evidence of an increase in average scale efficiency in the fleet as the remaining vessels were closer, on average, to the optimal scale. Key factors affecting technical efficiency included company structure and the number of vessels fishing. In regard to fleet size, our model suggests positive externalities associated with more boats fishing at any point in time (due to information sharing and reduced search costs), but also negative externalities due to crowding, with the latter effect dominating the former. Hence, the buyback resulted in a net increase in the individual efficiency of the remaining vessels due to reduced crowding, as well as raising average efficiency through removal of less efficient vessels.

Improvements to bauxite residue neutralisation efficiency through the use of alternative feed sources

Currently, open circuit Bayer refineries pump seawater directly into their operations to neutralise the caustic fraction of the Bayer residue. The resulting supernatant has a reduced pH and is pumped back to the marine environment. This investigation has assessed modified seawater sources generated from different ion filtration processes to compare their relative capacities to neutralise bauxite residues. An assessment of the chemical stability of the neutralisation products, neutralisation efficiency, discharge water quality, bauxite residue composition, and associated economic benefits have been considered to determine the most preferable seawater filtration process based on implementation costs, savings to operations and environmental benefits. The mechanism of neutralisation for each technology was determined to be predominately due to the formation of Bayer hydrotalcite and calcium carbonate, however variations in neutralisation capacity and efficiencies have been observed. The neutralisation efficiency of each feed source has been found to be dependent on the concentration of magnesium, aluminium, calcium and carbonate. These studies have revealed that multiple neutralisation steps occur throughout the process. Environmental, economic and social advantages and disadvantages of the different filtration technologies have been explored to determine the most sustainable method for the neutralisation of bauxite residues. The relative degree of “green” associated with nanofiltered seawater and reverse osmosis filtered seawater are discussed.

Estimating local stream fish assemblage attributes: Sampling effort and efficiency at two spatial scales

As part of a wider study to develop an ecosystem-health monitoring program for wadeable streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia, comparisons were made regarding the accuracy, precision and relative efficiency of single-pass backpack electrofishing and multiple-pass electrofishing plus supplementary seine netting to quantify fish assemblage attributes at two spatial scales (within discrete mesohabitat units and within stream reaches consisting of multiple mesohabitat units). The results demonstrate that multiple-pass electrofishing plus seine netting provide more accurate and precise estimates of fish species richness, assemblage composition and species relative abundances in comparison to single-pass electrofishing alone, and that intensive sampling of three mesohabitat units (equivalent to a riffle-run-pool sequence) is a more efficient sampling strategy to estimate reach-scale assemblage attributes than less intensive sampling over larger spatial scales. This intensive sampling protocol was sufficiently sensitive that relatively small differences in assemblage attributes (<20%) could be detected with a high statistical power (1-β > 0.95) and that relatively few stream reaches (<4) need be sampled to accurately estimate assemblage attributes close to the true population means. The merits and potential drawbacks of the intensive sampling strategy are discussed, and it is deemed to be suitable for a range of monitoring and bioassessment objectives.

Enhanced coloration efficiency for electrochromic devices based on anodized N2O5 / Electrodeposited MoO3 Binary Systems

There is a continuous quest for developing electrochromic (EC)transition metal oxides (TMOs) with increased coloration efficiency. As emerging TMOs, Nb2O5 films, even those of ordered anodized nanochannels, have failed to produce the required EC performance for practical applications. This is attributed to limitations presented by its relatively wide bandgap and low capacity for accommodating ions. To overcome such issues, MoO3 was electrodeposited onto Nb2O5 nanochannelled films as homogeneously conformal and stratified α-MoO3 coatings of different thickness. The EC performance of the resultant MoO3 coated Nb2O5 binary system was evaluated. The system exhibited a coloration efficiency of 149.0 cm2 C−1, exceeding that of any previous reports on MoO3 and Nb2O5 individually or their compounds. The enhancement was ascribed to a combination of the reduced effective bandgap of the binary system, the increased intercalation probability from the layered α-MoO3 coating, and a high surface-tovolume ratio, while the Nb2O5 nanochannelled templates provided stability and low impurity pathways for charge transfer to occur.

The effect of the histological properties of tumors on transfection efficiency of electrically assisted gene delivery to solid tumors in mice

Uniform DNA distribution in tumors is a prerequisite step for high transfection efficiency in solid tumors. To improve the transfection efficiency of electrically assisted gene delivery to solid tumors in vivo, we explored how tumor histological properties affected transfection efficiency. In four different tumor types (B16F1, EAT, SA-1 and LPB), proteoglycan and collagen content was morphometrically analyzed, and cell size and cell density were determined in paraffin-embedded tumor sections under a transmission microscope. To demonstrate the influence of the histological properties of solid tumors on electrically assisted gene delivery, the correlation between histological properties and transfection efficiency with regard to the time interval between DNA injection and electroporation was determined. Our data demonstrate that soft tumors with larger spherical cells, low proteoglycan and collagen content, and low cell density are more effectively transfected (B16F1 and EAT) than rigid tumors with high proteoglycan and collagen content, small spindle-shaped cells and high cell density (LPB and SA-1). Furthermore, an optimal time interval for increased transfection exists only in soft tumors, this being in the range of 5-15 min. Therefore, knowledge about the histology of tumors is important in planning electrogene therapy with respect to the time interval between DNA injection and electroporation.

Energy efficiency in nanoscale synthesis using nanosecond plasmas

We report a nanoscale synthesis technique using nanosecond-duration plasma discharges. Voltage pulses 12.5 kV in amplitude and 40 ns in duration were applied repetitively at 30 kHz across molybdenum electrodes in open ambient air, generating a nanosecond spark discharge that synthesized well-defined MoO 3 nanoscale architectures (i.e. flakes, dots, walls, porous networks) upon polyamide and copper substrates. No nitrides were formed. The energy cost was as low as 75 eV per atom incorporated into a nanostructure, suggesting a dramatic reduction compared to other techniques using atmospheric pressure plasmas. These findings show that highly efficient synthesis at atmospheric pressure without catalysts or external substrate heating can be achieved in a simple fashion using nanosecond discharges.

Efficiency of lexical access in children with autism spectrum disorders : does modality matter?

The provision of visual support to individuals with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is widely recommended. We explored one mechanism underlying the use of visual supports: efficiency of language processing. Two groups of children, one with and one without an ASD, participated. The groups had comparable oral and written language skills and nonverbal cognitive abilities. In two semantic priming experiments, prime modality and prime–target relatedness were manipulated. Response time and accuracy of lexical decisions on the spoken word targets were measured. In the first uni-modal experiment, both groups demonstrated significant priming effects. In the second experiment which was cross-modal, no effect for relatedness or group was found. This result is considered in the light of the attentional capacity required for access to the lexicon via written stimuli within the developing semantic system. These preliminary findings are also considered with respect to the use of visual support for children with ASD.

Efficiency optimization for bidirectional IPT system

Compared with unidirectional inductive power transfer (UIPT) systems which are suitable for passive loads, bidirectional IPT (BIPT) systems can be used for active loads with power regenerative capability. There are numerous BIPT systems that have been proposed previously to achieve improved performance. However, typical BIPT systems are controlled through modulation of phase-shift of each converter while keeping the relative phase angle between voltages produced by two converters at ± 90 degrees. This paper presents theoretical analysis to show that there is a unique phase shift for each converter at which the inductive coils losses of the system is minimized for a given load. Simulated results of a BIPT system, compensated by CLCL resonant networks, are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed concept and the validity of the mathematical model.

Assessment on the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

Both environmental economists and policy makers have shown a great deal of interest in the effect of pollution abatement on environmental efficiency. In line with the modern resources available, however, no contribution is brought to the environmental economics field with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) application, which enables simulation from a distribution of a Markov chain and simulating from the chain until it approaches equilibrium. The probability density functions gained prominence with the advantages over classical statistical methods in its simultaneous inference and incorporation of any prior information on all model parameters. This paper concentrated on this point with the application of MCMC to the database of China, the largest developing country with rapid economic growth and serious environmental pollution in recent years. The variables cover the economic output and pollution abatement cost from the year 1992 to 2003. We test the causal direction between pollution abatement cost and environmental efficiency with MCMC simulation. We found that the pollution abatement cost causes an increase in environmental efficiency through the algorithm application, which makes it conceivable that the environmental policy makers should make more substantial measures to reduce pollution in the near future.