Biomarker circadian rhythm profiles in critically ill mechanically ventilated patients

Objective: To explore the natural trajectory of core body temperature (CBT) and cortisol (CORT) circadian rhythms in mechanically ventilated intensive care unit (MV ICU) patients. ^ Design: Prospective, observational, time-series pilot study. ^ Setting: Medical-surgical and pulmonary ICUs in a tertiary care hospital. ^ Sample: Nine (F = 3, M = 6) adults who were mechanically ventilated within 12 hrs of ICU admission with mean ± SD age of 65.2 ± 14 years old. ^ Measurements: Core body temperature and environmental measures of light, sound, temperature, and relative humidity were logged in 1-min intervals. Hourly urine specimens and 2-hr interval blood specimens were collected for up to 7 consecutive days for CORT assay. Mechanical ventilation days, ICU length of stay, and ICU mortality were documented. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores were computed for each study day. The data of each biologic and environmental variable were analyzed using single cosinor analysis of 24-hr serial segments. One patient did not complete the study because mortality occurred within 8 hrs of enrollment. Nine ICU patients completed the study in 1.6 to 7.0 days. ^ Results: No normal circadian rhythm pattern was found when the cosinor-derived parameters of amplitude (one-half the peak-trough variability) and acrophase (peak time) were compared with cosinor-derived parameter reference ranges of healthy, diurnally active humans, although 83% of patient-day CBT segments showed statistically significant (p ≤ .05) and biologically meaningful (R2≥ 0.30) 24-hr rhythms with abnormal cosinor parameters. Cosinor parameters of the environmental temporal profiles showed 27% of light, 76% of ambient temperature, and 78% of relative humidity serial segments had a significant and meaningful 24-hr diurnal pattern. Average daily light intensity varied from 34 to 187 lx with a maximum light exposure of 1877 lx. No sound measurement segment had a statistically significant cosine pattern, and numerous 1-minute interval peaks ≥ 60 dB occurred around the clock. Average daily ambient temperature and relative humidity varied from 19 to 24°C and from 25% to 61%, respectively. There was no statistically significant association between CBT or clinical outcomes and cosinor-derived parameters of the environmental variables. Circadian rhythms of urine and plasma CORT were deferred for later analysis. ^ Conclusions: The natural trajectory of the CBT circadian rhythm in MV ICU patients demonstrated persistent cosinor parameter alteration, even when a significant and meaningful 24-hr rhythm was present. The ICU environmental measures showed erratic light and sound exposures. Room temperature and relative humidity data produced the highest rate of significant and meaningful diurnal 24-hr patterns. Additional research is needed to clarify relations among the CBT biomarker of the circadian clock and environmental variables of MV ICU patients. ^

Ensaio clínico randomizado do uso do curativo gel de clorexidina para a prevenção da colonização do cateter venoso central em pacientes adultos críticos

Os acessos venosos são indispensáveis para assistência do paciente em situação crítica. O cateter venoso central (CVC) é um acesso que viabiliza a terapêutica dessa clientela, mas o seu uso pode levar à infecções. Estas infecções ocasionam maior permanência hospitalar, elevam os custos totais das instituições e aumentam a morbidade e a mortalidade do paciente. O uso de curativos como cobertura do sítio de saída do CVC é eficaz na prevenção das infecções relacionadas a estes cateteres, em particular, o uso de curativos impregnados com antissépticos como o curativo gel de clorexidina. Este estudo teve como objetivo comparar a efetividade do curativo gel de clorexidina com a do filme transparente de poliuretano na prevenção da colonização do cateter venoso central em pacientes adultos críticos. Trata-se de estudo experimental, do tipo ensaio clínico randomizado, com tratamentos em paralelo, prospectivo e monocêntrico, realizado de acordo com as recomendações do Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT). O estudo foi realizado na Unidade de Terapia Intensiva e na Unidade Coronariana de um hospital de ensino do interior do Estado de São Paulo. Participaram do estudo 102 indivíduos hospitalizados nestes locais, divididos aleatoriamente em dois grupos: grupo intervenção, no qual o tipo de cobertura utilizada foi o curativo de gel de clorexidina e grupo controle, que utilizou como cobertura o filme transparente de poliuretano. O desfecho primário mensurado foi a colonização do cateter e os desfechos secundários foram a infecção clínica do sítio de saída, a infecção microbiológica do sítio de saída e a infecção da corrente sanguínea relacionada ao cateter. Para a coleta de dados foi elaborado um instrumento, e este validado quanto ao seu conteúdo e forma por 13 enfermeiros pertencentes aos locais do estudo. Estes profissionais foram treinados para a realização dos curativos e coleta das pontas dos cateteres centrais, swabs dos sítios de saída e hemoculturas. Análises descritivas foram usadas para todas as variáveis do estudo. O teste Exato de Fisher foi utilizado para comparar as proporções de cada desfecho nos grupos de intervenção e controle, e a regressão logística para explorar se a colonização no CVC poderia ser associada com o tempo de uso do cateter e com o Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) dos pacientes do estudo. De acordo com os resultados não houve diferença estatisticamente significante entre a colonização nos dois grupos (p valor = 1.00), para a infecção microbiológica do sítio de saída (p valor = 0.08), para a infecção clínica do sítio de saída (p valor = 0.77) e para as infecções da corrente sanguínea relacionadas ao cateter (p valor = 1,00). Conclui-se que o presente estudo pode contribuir para que as unidades de saúde tenham subsídios para realizar a escolha do tipo de curativo baseado em suas necessidades institucionais e no desenvolvimento de protocolos relacionados à medidas de inserção e manutenção do cateter, bem como medidas educativas permanentes

Risk Factors of Central Venous Catheter Related Infections in Intensive Care Patients

2002 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P10.

Epidemiología, diagnóstico y tratamiento de la sepsis severa en Uruguay: un estudio multicéntrico prospectivo

Objetivo: conocer las características epidemiológicas de pacientes que ingresan por sepsis severa (SS) y shock séptico (ShS); valorar la implementación de recomendaciones de la campaña Sobrevivir a las Sepsis (CSS) y determinar variables asociadas con mal pronóstico vital. Diseño: estudio prospectivo, observacional, cohorte única, multicéntrico, durante un año (setiembre 2011 - agosto 2012). Ámbito: cinco centros de Montevideo, del subsector público y privado con cobertura de 800.000 habitantes. Pacientes y métodos: 153 pacientes que ingresaron con diagnóstico de SS y ShS a las unidades de cuidados intensivos (UCI) de forma consecutiva. Variables de interés principales: aquellas relacionadas con características del paciente y episodio de sepsis, medidas diagnósticas y terapéuticas según la CSS en las primeras 48 horas, y pronósticas en UCI, hospital y a los seis meses. Resultados: se incluyeron 153 pacientes, la mediana de edad fue 68 años, la de Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) fue de 24; 73,9% recibieron asistencia respiratoria mecánica (ARM), con una mediana de 8 días. La mediana de estadía en CTI fue de 12 y la de estadía hospitalaria fue de 19 días. De los episodios de SS, ShS, 69,3% de los casos fue comunitario; 77,8% presentó shock, y 37,9% inmunodebilidad-inmunocompromiso. Predominó la sepsis de origen respiratorio en 30,1%, se aisló microorganismos en 64,1%, siendo bacterianas 95,9%. La mortalidad en CTI fue 49,7%, hospitalaria 54,9% y a seis meses 58,8%. Se asociaron a mayor mortalidad hospitalaria: edad, APACHE II, inmunodebilidad-compromiso, demoras de ingreso a UCI e inicio de antimicrobianos y balance positivo. Conclusiones: los pacientes ingresan a UCI con formas severas o estado biológico comprometido. Existen demoras y limitaciones en el diagnóstico y terapéutica inicial, situaciones que se asocian a mayor mortalidad hospitalaria.

Acute imaging does not improve ASTRAL score's accuracy despite having a prognostic value.

BACKGROUND: The ASTRAL score was recently shown to reliably predict three-month functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. AIM: The study aims to investigate whether information from multimodal imaging increases ASTRAL score's accuracy. METHODS: All patients registered in the ASTRAL registry until March 2011 were included. In multivariate logistic-regression analyses, we added covariates derived from parenchymal, vascular, and perfusion imaging to the 6-parameter model of the ASTRAL score. If a specific imaging covariate remained an independent predictor of three-month modified Rankin score > 2, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of this new model was calculated and compared with ASTRAL score's AUC. We also performed similar logistic regression analyses in arbitrarily chosen patient subgroups. RESULTS: When added to the ASTRAL score, the following covariates on admission computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging-based multimodal imaging were not significant predictors of outcome: any stroke-related acute lesion, any nonstroke-related lesions, chronic/subacute stroke, leukoaraiosis, significant arterial pathology in ischemic territory on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler, significant intracranial arterial pathology in ischemic territory, and focal hypoperfusion on perfusion-computed tomography. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score on plain imaging and any significant extracranial arterial pathology on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler were independent predictors of outcome (odds ratio: 0·93, 95% CI: 0·87-0·99 and odds ratio: 1·49, 95% CI: 1·08-2·05, respectively) but did not increase ASTRAL score's AUC (0·849 vs. 0·850, and 0·8563 vs. 0·8564, respectively). In exploratory analyses in subgroups of different prognosis, age or stroke severity, no covariate was found to increase ASTRAL score's AUC, either. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of information derived from multimodal imaging does not increase ASTRAL score's accuracy to predict functional outcome despite having an independent prognostic value. More selected radiological parameters applied in specific subgroups of stroke patients may add prognostic value of multimodal imaging.

The SYNTAX score predicts early mortality risk in the elderly with acute coronary syndrome having primary PCI.

BACKGROUND: The SYNTAX score (SXscore), an angiographic score reflecting coronary lesion complexity, predicts clinical outcomes in patients with left main or multivessel disease, and in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary PCI. The clinical SXscore (CSS) integrates the SXscore and clinical variables (age, ejection fraction, serum creatinine) into a single score. We analyzed these scores in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing primary PCI. The purpose of this analysis was not to decide which patients should undergo PCI, but to predict clinical outcomes in this population. METHODS: The SXscore was determined in a consecutive series of 114 elderly patients (mean age, 79.6 ± 4.1 years) undergoing primary PCI for ACS. Outcomes were stratified according to SXscore tertiles: SXLOW ≤15 (n = 39), 15< SXMID <23 (n = 40), and SXHIGH ≥23 (n = 35). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 30 days. Secondary endpoints were nonfatal major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 30 days, and 1-year outcomes in patients discharged alive. RESULTS: Mortality at 30 days was higher in the SXHIGH group compared with the aggregate SXLOW+MID group (37.1% vs 5.1%; P<.0001), and in the CSSHIGH group compared with the aggregate CSSLOW+MID group (25.5% vs 1.4%; P=.0001). MACCE rates at 30 days were similar among SXscore tertiles. The CSS predicted 1-year MACCE rates (12.1% for CSSHIGH vs 3.1% for CSSLOW+MID; P=.03). CONCLUSIONS: The SXscore predicts 30-day mortality in elderly patients with ACS undergoing primary PCI. In patients discharged alive, the CSS predicts risk of MACCE at 1 year.

ASTRAL Score Predicts 5-Year Dependence and Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was externally validated showing remarkable consistency on 3-month outcome prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The present study aimed to evaluate ASTRAL score's prognostic accuracy to predict 5-year outcome. METHODS: All consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke registered in the Athens Stroke Registry between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2010, were included. Patients were excluded if admitted >24 hours after symptom onset or if any ASTRAL score component was missing. End points were 5-year unfavorable functional outcome, defined as modified Rankin Scale 3 to 6, and 5-year mortality. For each outcome, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated; also, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to investigate whether the ASTRAL score was an independent predictor of outcome. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of 5-year survival for each ASTRAL score quartile. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the score to predict 5-year unfavorable functional outcome was 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.91. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year unfavorable functional outcome (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the ASTRAL score's discriminatory power to predict 5-year mortality was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.83). In multivariate analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). During the 5-year follow-up, the probability of survival was significantly lower with increasing ASTRAL score quartiles (log-rank test <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score reliably predicts 5-year functional outcome and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Prediction of myocardial infarction size using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction

Objectives The relevance of the SYNTAX score for the particular case of patients with acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI)  has previously only been studied in the setting of post hoc analysis of large prospective randomized clinical trials. A "real-life" population approach has never been explored before. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the SYNTAX score for the prediction of the myocardial infarction size, estimated by the creatin-kinase (CK) peak value, using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary coronary intervention for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Methods The primary endpoint of the study was myocardial infarction size as measured by the CK peak value. The SYNTAX score was calculated retrospectively in 253 consecutive patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) in a large tertiary referral center in Switzerland, between January 2009 and June 2010. Linear regression analysis was performed to compare myocardial infarction size with the SYNTAX score. This same endpoint was then stratified according to SYNTAX score tertiles: low <22 (n=178), intermediate [22-32] (n=60), and high >=33 (n=15). Results There were no significant differences in terms of clinical characteristics between the three groups. When stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles, average CK peak values of 1985 (low<22), 3336 (intermediate [22-32]) and 3684 (high>=33) were obtained with a p-value <0.0001. Bartlett's test for equal variances between the three groups was 9.999 (p-value <0.0067). A moderate Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r=0.4074) with a high statistical significance level (p-value <0.0001) was found. The coefficient of determination (R^2=0.1660) showed that approximately 17% of the variation of CK peak value (myocardial infarction size) could be explained by the SYNTAX score, i.e. by the coronary disease complexity. Conclusion In an all-comers population, the SYNTAX score is an additional tool in predicting myocardial infarction size in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). The stratification of patients in different risk groups according to SYNTAX enables to identify a high-risk population that may warrant particular patient care.

A Novel Acute Retroviral Syndrome Severity Score Predicts the Key Surrogate Markers for HIV-1 Disease Progression.

OBJECTIVE: Best long-term practice in primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) remains unknown for the individual. A risk-based scoring system associated with surrogate markers of HIV-1 disease progression could be helpful to stratify patients with PHI at highest risk for HIV-1 disease progression. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 290 individuals with well-documented PHI in the Zurich Primary HIV-1 Infection Study, an open-label, non-randomized, observational, single-center study. Patients could choose to undergo early antiretroviral treatment (eART) and stop it after one year of undetectable viremia, to go on with treatment indefinitely, or to defer treatment. For each patient we calculated an a priori defined "Acute Retroviral Syndrome Severity Score" (ARSSS), consisting of clinical and basic laboratory variables, ranging from zero to ten points. We used linear regression models to assess the association between ARSSS and log baseline viral load (VL), baseline CD4+ cell count, and log viral setpoint (sVL) (i.e. VL measured ≥90 days after infection or treatment interruption). RESULTS: Mean ARSSS was 2.89. CD4+ cell count at baseline was negatively correlated with ARSSS (p = 0.03, n = 289), whereas HIV-RNA levels at baseline showed a strong positive correlation with ARSSS (p<0.001, n = 290). In the regression models, a 1-point increase in the score corresponded to a 0.10 log increase in baseline VL and a CD4+cell count decline of 12/µl, respectively. In patients with PHI and not undergoing eART, higher ARSSS were significantly associated with higher sVL (p = 0.029, n = 64). In contrast, in patients undergoing eART with subsequent structured treatment interruption, no correlation was found between sVL and ARSSS (p = 0.28, n = 40). CONCLUSION: The ARSSS is a simple clinical score that correlates with the best-validated surrogate markers of HIV-1 disease progression. In regions where ART is not universally available and eART is not standard this score may help identifying patients who will profit the most from early antiretroviral therapy.

A Prognostic Score to Identify Low-risk Outpatients with Acute Deep Vein Thrombosis in the Lower Limbs.

BACKGROUND: No prior studies have identified which patients with deep vein thrombosis in the lower limbs are at a low risk for adverse events within the first week of therapy. METHODS: We used data from the Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica (RIETE) to identify patients at low risk for the composite outcome of pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, or death within the first week. We built a prognostic score and compared it with the decision to treat patients at home. RESULTS: As of December 2013, 15,280 outpatients with deep vein thrombosis had been enrolled. Overall, 5164 patients (34%) were treated at home. Of these, 12 (0.23%) had pulmonary embolism, 8 (0.15%) bled, and 4 (0.08%) died. On multivariable analysis, chronic heart failure, recent immobility, recent bleeding, cancer, renal insufficiency, and abnormal platelet count independently predicted the risk for the composite outcome. Among 11,430 patients (75%) considered to be at low risk, 15 (0.13%) suffered pulmonary embolism, 22 (0.19%) bled, and 8 (0.07%) died. The C-statistic was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.65) for the decision to treat patients at home and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.79) for the score (P = .003). Net reclassification improvement was 41% (P < .001). Integrated discrimination improvement was 0.034 for the score and 0.015 for the clinical decision (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Using 6 easily available variables, we identified outpatients with deep vein thrombosis at low risk for adverse events within the first week. These data may help to safely treat more patients at home. This score, however, should be validated.

An integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: The ASTRAL score.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a simple, integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using variables readily available after emergency room admission. METHODS: Logistic regression was performed in the derivation cohort of previously independent patients with AIS (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne [ASTRAL]) to identify predictors of unfavorable outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale score >2). An integer-based point-scoring system for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated by their β-coefficients; the overall score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The model was validated internally using a 2-fold cross-validation technique and externally in 2 independent cohorts (Athens and Vienna Stroke Registries). RESULTS: Age (A), severity of stroke (S) measured by admission NIH Stroke Scale score, stroke onset to admission time (T), range of visual fields (R), acute glucose (A), and level of consciousness (L) were identified as independent predictors of unfavorable outcome in 1,645 patients in ASTRAL. Their β-coefficients were multiplied by 4 and rounded to the closest integer to generate the score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score in the ASTRAL cohort was 0.850. The score was well calibrated in the derivation (p = 0.43) and validation cohorts (0.22 [Athens, n = 1,659] and 0.49 [Vienna, n = 653]). AUCs were 0.937 (Athens), 0.771 (Vienna), and 0.902 (when pooled). An ASTRAL score of 31 indicates a 50% likelihood of unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score is a simple integer-based score to predict functional outcome using 6 readily available items at hospital admission. It performed well in double external validation and may be a useful tool for clinical practice and stroke research.

Transcranial Doppler ultrasound in the acute phase of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Angiographic studies suggest that acute vasospasm within 48 h of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) predicts symptomatic vasospasm. However, the value of transcranial Doppler within 48 h of SAH is unknown. METHODS: We analyzed 199 patients who had at least 1 middle cerebral artery (MCA) transcranial Doppler examination within 48 h of SAH onset. Abnormal MCA mean blood flow velocity (mBFV) was defined as >90 cm/s. Delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) was defined as clinical deterioration or radiological evidence of infarction due to vasospasm. RESULTS: Seventy-six patients (38%) had an elevation of MCA mBFV >90 cm/s within 48 h of SAH onset. The predictors of elevated mBFV included younger age (OR = 0.97 per year of age, p = 0.002), admission angiographic vasospasm (OR = 5.4, p = 0.009) and elevated white blood cell count (OR = 1.1 per 1,000 white blood cells, p = 0.003). Patients with elevated mBFV were more likely to experience a 10 cm/s fall in velocity at the first follow-up than those with normal baseline velocities (24 vs. 10%, p < 0.01), suggestive of resolving spasm. DCI developed in 19% of the patients. An elevated admission mBFV >90 cm/s during the first 48 h (adjusted OR = 2.7, p = 0.007) and a poor clinical grade (Hunt-Hess score 4 or 5, OR = 3.2, p = 0.002) were associated with a significant increase in the risk of DCI. CONCLUSION: Early elevations of mBFV correlate with acute angiographic vasospasm and are associated with a significantly increased risk of DCI. Transcranial Doppler ultrasound may be an early useful tool to identify patients at higher risk to develop DCI after SAH.

ASTRAL-R score predicts non-recanalisation after intravenous thrombolysis in acute ischaemic stroke.

Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) as treatment in acute ischaemic strokes may be insufficient to achieve recanalisation in certain patients. Predicting probability of non-recanalisation after IVT may have the potential to influence patient selection to more aggressive management strategies. We aimed at deriving and internally validating a predictive score for post-thrombolytic non-recanalisation, using clinical and radiological variables. In thrombolysis registries from four Swiss academic stroke centres (Lausanne, Bern, Basel and Geneva), patients were selected with large arterial occlusion on acute imaging and with repeated arterial assessment at 24 hours. Based on a logistic regression analysis, an integer-based score for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated. Performance of integer-based predictive model was assessed by bootstrapping available data and cross validation (delete-d method). In 599 thrombolysed strokes, five variables were identified as independent predictors of absence of recanalisation: Acute glucose > 7 mmol/l (A), significant extracranial vessel STenosis (ST), decreased Range of visual fields (R), large Arterial occlusion (A) and decreased Level of consciousness (L). All variables were weighted 1, except for (L) which obtained 2 points based on β-coefficients on the logistic scale. ASTRAL-R scores 0, 3 and 6 corresponded to non-recanalisation probabilities of 18, 44 and 74 % respectively. Predictive ability showed AUC of 0.66 (95 %CI, 0.61-0.70) when using bootstrap and 0.66 (0.63-0.68) when using delete-d cross validation. In conclusion, the 5-item ASTRAL-R score moderately predicts non-recanalisation at 24 hours in thrombolysed ischaemic strokes. If its performance can be confirmed by external validation and its clinical usefulness can be proven, the score may influence patient selection for more aggressive revascularisation strategies in routine clinical practice.

A prognostic score to identify low-risk outpatients with acute deep vein thrombosis in the upper extremity.

BACKGROUND: No studies have identified which patients with upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are at low risk for adverse events within the first week of therapy. METHODS: We used data from Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to explore in patients with upper-extremity DVT a prognostic score that correctly identified patients with lower limb DVT at low risk for pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, or death within the first week. RESULTS: As of December 2014, 1135 outpatients with upper-extremity DVT were recruited. Of these, 515 (45%) were treated at home. During the first week, three patients (0.26%) experienced pulmonary embolism, two (0.18%) had major bleeding, and four (0.35%) died. We assigned 1 point to patients with chronic heart failure, creatinine clearance levels 30-60 mL min(-1) , recent bleeding, abnormal platelet count, recent immobility, or cancer without metastases; 2 points to those with metastatic cancer; and 3 points to those with creatinine clearance levels < 30 mL min(-1) . Overall, 759 (67%) patients scored ≤ 1 point and were considered to be at low risk. The rate of the composite outcome within the first week was 0.26% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.004-0.87) in patients at low risk and 1.86% (95% CI 0.81-3.68) in the remaining patients. C-statistics was 0.73 (95% CI 0.57-0.88). Net reclassification improvement was 22%, and integrated discrimination improvement was 0.0055. CONCLUSIONS: Using six easily available variables, we identified outpatients with upper-extremity DVT at low risk for adverse events within the first week. These data may help to safely treat more patients at home.