Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements: a system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department

Accident and Emergency (A&E) units provide a route for patients requiring urgent admission to acute hospitals. Public concern over long waiting times for admissions motivated this study, whose aim is to explore the factors which contribute to such delays. The paper discusses the formulation and calibration of a system dynamics model of the interaction of demand pattern, A&E resource deployment, other hospital processes and bed numbers; and the outputs of policy analysis runs of the model which vary a number of the key parameters. Two significant findings have policy implications. One is that while some delays to patients are unavoidable, reductions can be achieved by selective augmentation of resources within, and relating to, the A&E unit. The second is that reductions in bed numbers do not increase waiting times for emergency admissions, their effect instead being to increase sharply the number of cancellations of admissions for elective surgery. This suggests that basing A&E policy solely on any single criterion will merely succeed in transferring the effects of a resource deficit to a different patient group.

COCO-2: a model to assess the economic impact of an accident

COCO-2 is a model for assessing the potential economic costs likely to arise off-site following an accident at a nuclear reactor. COCO-2 builds on work presented in the model COCO-1 developed in 1991 by considering economic effects in more detail, and by including more sources of loss. Of particular note are: the consideration of the directly affected local economy, indirect losses that stem from the directly affected businesses, losses due to changes in tourism consumption, integration with the large body of work on recovery after an accident and a more systematic approach to health costs. The work, where possible, is based on official data sources for reasons of traceability, maintenance and ease of future development. This report describes the methodology and discusses the results of an example calculation. Guidance on how the base economic data can be updated in the future is also provided.

Tales of the unexpected: research discoveries that occurred by accident

Data from four experimental research projects are presented which have in common that unexpected results caused a change in direction of the research. A plant growth accelerator caused the appearance of white black bean aphids, a synthetic pyrethroid suspected of enhancing aphid reproduction proved to enhance plant growth, a chance conversation with a colleague initiated a search for fungal DNA in aphids, and the accidental invasion of aphid cultures by a parasitoid reversed the aphid population ranking of two Brussels sprout cultivars. This last result led to a whole series of studies on the plant odour preferences of emerging parasitoids which in turn revealed the unexpected phenomenon that chemical cues to the maternal host plant are left with the eggs at oviposition. It is pointed out that, too often, researchers fail to follow up unexpected results because they resist accepting flaws in their hypotheses; also that current application criteria for research funding make it hard to accommodate unexpected findings.

Big data: a normal accident waiting to happen?

Widespread commercial use of the internet has significantly increased the volume and scope of data being collected by organisations. ‘Big data’ has emerged as a term to encapsulate both the technical and commercial aspects of this growing data collection activity. To date, much of the discussion of big data has centred upon its transformational potential for innovation and efficiency, yet there has been less reflection on its wider implications beyond commercial value creation. This paper builds upon normal accident theory (NAT) to analyse the broader ethical implications of big data. It argues that the strategies behind big data require organisational systems that leave them vulnerable to normal accidents, that is to say some form of accident or disaster that is both unanticipated and inevitable. Whilst NAT has previously focused on the consequences of physical accidents, this paper suggests a new form of system accident that we label data accidents. These have distinct, less tangible and more complex characteristics and raise significant questions over the role of individual privacy in a ‘data society’. The paper concludes by considering the ways in which the risks of such data accidents might be managed or mitigated.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

Report of a human accident caused by Conus regius (Gastropoda, Conidae)

Conus regius is a venomous mollusc in the Conidae family, which includes species responsible for severe or even fatal accidents affecting human beings. This is the first report on a clinical case involving this species. It consisted a puncture in the right hand of a diver who presented paresthesia and movement difficulty in the whole limb. The manifestations disappeared after around twelve hours, without sequelae.

Circuit board accident - organizational dimension hidden by prescribed safety

This study analyzes an accident in which two maintenance workers suffered severe burns while replacing a circuit breaker panel in a steel mill, following model of analysis and prevention of accidents (MAPA) developed with the objective of enlarging the perimeter of interventions and contributing to deconstruction of blame attribution practices. The study was based on materials produced by a health service team in an in-depth analysis of the accident. The analysis shows that decisions related to system modernization were taken without considering their implications in maintenance scheduling and creating conflicts of priorities and of interests between production and safety; and also reveals that the lack of a systemic perspective in safety management was its principal failure. To explain the accident as merely non-fulfillment of idealized formal safety rules feeds practices of blame attribution supported by alibi norms and inhibits possible prevention. In contrast, accident analyses undertaken in worker health surveillance services show potential to reveal origins of these events incubated in the history of the system ignored in practices guided by the traditional paradigm.

Safety illusion and error trap in a collectively-operated machine accident

Workplace accidents involving machines are relevant for their magnitude and their impacts on worker health. Despite consolidated critical statements, explanation centered on errors of operators remains predominant with industry professionals, hampering preventive measures and the improvement of production-system reliability. Several initiatives were adopted by enforcement agencies in partnership with universities to stimulate production and diffusion of analysis methodologies with a systemic approach. Starting from one accident case that occurred with a worker who operated a brake-clutch type mechanical press, the article explores cognitive aspects and the existence of traps in the operation of this machine. It deals with a large-sized press that, despite being endowed with a light curtain in areas of access to the pressing zone, did not meet legal requirements. The safety devices gave rise to an illusion of safety, permitting activation of the machine when a worker was still found within the operational zone. Preventive interventions must stimulate the tailoring of systems to the characteristics of workers, minimizing the creation of traps and encouraging safety policies and practices that replace judgments of behaviors that participate in accidents by analyses of reasons that lead workers to act in that manner.

Intraosseous foreign-body granuloma in the mandible subsequent to a 20-year-old work-related accident

The purpose of this article was to describe the clinical and microscopic features of an intraosseous foreign-body granuloma in the mandible that developed after the traumatic implantation of metal fragments during a work-related accident. A 65-year-old male patient had a severe pain in the body of mandible. Clinical examination showed facial asymmetry and a scar, extending to the left mental region. Intraoral examination revealed a soft mass involving the left alveolar bone with normal appearance of the mucosa surface. Panoramic radiographs showed a radiolucent lesion along the mandible extending from the central incisive to the first molar. Computed tomography revealed an osteolytic mass in the same area. His medical history included a work-related accident twenty years prior to evaluation. During the biopsy an important amount of bright metal-like pieces surrounded by soft tissue were found. A microscopic examination showed a foreign body associated with an aggregation of multinucleated giant cells. The final diagnosis was a foreign body granuloma. Even though foreign-body granulomas in the mandible are rare lesions, dentists should be familiar with their features and include them in the differential diagnosis of tissue masses.

Aircraft accident in Brazil: Boeing vs. Legacy?

Air accidents represent a small proportion of the flights registered worldwide. Airplane collisions in the air are rare. In September of 2006, a Boeing 737-800 collided in midair with a Legacy Jet. It was the largest accident registered in the history of Brazilian aviation until that time. The present study explores aspects of press coverage of the accident. Data and information reported in the media about the accident from September 2006 to August 2007 were collected and discussed. Media coverage called attention to two unusual aspects: politicisation of the discussion, culminating in the opening of congressional inquiries, and equally the concomitance of police investigations interfering in the work of agencies responsible for the official accident investigation. Emphasis on assigning guilt and establishing penalties may close the windows of opportunity an accident had opened for discussions on the improvement of air safety. In Brazil, political imperatives and organizational pressures have interfered and the possibilities of organizational learning from the accident have been drastically curtailed.

Air accident investigation among regulatory agencies

The aim of this manuscript is to describe and compare regulatory aviation agencies according to their subordination and attributions to investigate air accidents. Possible consequences in identifying the contributory factors are also presented. Distinct procedures investigating air accidents among agencies lead to a lack of standardization of the statistics, making it difficult to analyze the data globally. Separately the information does not configure the entire scenario of what occurred, affecting the analysis and subsequent interventions. We recommend a joint and collaborative work between the different committees that operate in the investigation of air accidents.