Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health: family interventions for schizophrenia and related conditions

Objective: Existing evidence suggests that family interventions can be effective in reducing relapse rates in schizophrenia and related conditions. Despite this, such interventions are not routinely delivered in Australian mental health services. The objective of the current study is to investigate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of introducing three types of family interventions, namely: behavioural family management (BFM); behavioural intervention for families (BIF); and multiple family groups (MFG) into current mental health services in Australia. Method: The ICER of each of the family interventions is assessed from a health sector perspective, including the government, persons with schizophrenia and their families/carers using a standardized methodology. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The second stage involves application of 'second filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: The most cost-effective intervention, in order of magnitude, is BIF (A$8000 per DALY averted), followed by MFG (A$21 000 per DALY averted) and lastly BFM (A$28 000 per DALY averted). The inclusion of time costs makes BFM more cost-effective than MFG. Variation of discount rate has no effect on conclusions. Conclusions: All three interventions are considered 'value-for-money' within an Australian context. This conclusion needs to be tempered against the methodological challenge of converting clinical outcomes into a generic economic outcome measure (DALY). Issues surrounding the feasibility of routinely implementing such interventions need to be addressed.

Assessing cost-effectiveness - Mental health: introduction to the study and methods

Objective: The Assessing Cost-Effectiveness - Mental Health (ACE-MH) study aims to assess from a health sector perspective, whether there are options for change that could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of Australia's current mental health services by directing available resources toward 'best practice' cost-effective services. Method: The use of standardized evaluation methods addresses the reservations expressed by many economists about the simplistic use of League Tables based on economic studies confounded by differences in methods, context and setting. The cost-effectiveness ratio for each intervention is calculated using economic and epidemiological data. This includes systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials for efficacy, the Australian Surveys of Mental Health and Wellbeing for current practice and a combination of trials and longitudinal studies for adherence. The cost-effectiveness ratios are presented as cost (A$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved with a 95% uncertainty interval based on Monte Carlo simulation modelling. An assessment of interventions on 'second filter' criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') allows broader concepts of 'benefit' to be taken into account, as well as factors that might influence policy judgements in addition to cost-effectiveness ratios. Conclusions: The main limitation of the study is in the translation of the effect size from trials into a change in the DALY disability weight, which required the use of newly developed methods. While comparisons within disorders are valid, comparisons across disorders should be made with caution. A series of articles is planned to present the results.

Observer agreement of spine stenosis on magnetic resonance imaging analysis of patients with cervical spine myelopathy

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to measure the intraobserver and interobserver reliability of magnetic resonance detection of cervical spondylotic myelopathy with and without operational guidelines. Methods: Seven radiologists examined images from 10 patients with cord signal abnormalities and clinical signs of myelopathy. Radiologist examined films twice, with and without operational guidelines designed to define stenotic changes, while blinded to the clinical findings of the patients. Analyses included a Fleiss kappa assessment of intraobserver and interobserver reliability. Results: Results demonstrated high percentage of agreement and strong intraobserver reliability and variable Fleiss kappa, values for interobserver assessment. Operational guidelines did not improve the intraobserver or interobserver agreement. Conclusion: Although the percentage of agreement was high in some cases, the kappa agreement was low-most likely a result of the base rate problem of a kappa analysis. Sample bias toward severe degenerative changes resulted in highly prevalent selections and kappa adjusted values. Nonetheless, the results do suggest that substantial intraobserver kappa agreement and a wide range of interobserver kappa agreement exists among trained radiologists during detection of stenotic changes associated with cervical spondylotic myelopathy.

Renal Cell Carcinoma: T1 and T2 Signal Intensity Characteristics of Papillary and Clear Cell Types Correlated with Pathology

OBJECTIVE. The objective of our study was to describe the T1 and T2 signal intensity characteristics of papillary renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and clear cell RCC with pathologic correlation. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Of 539 RCCs, 49 tumors (21 papillary RCCs and 28 clear cell RCCs) in 45 patients were examined with MRI. Two radiologists retrospectively and independently assessed each tumor`s T1 and T2 signal intensity qualitatively and quantitatively (i.e., the signal intensity [SI] ratio [tumor SI/renal cortex SI]). Of the 49 tumors, 37 (76%) were assessed for pathology features including tumor architecture and the presence of hemosiderin, ferritin, necrosis, and fibrosis. MRI findings and pathology features were correlated. Statistical methods included summary statistics and Wilcoxon`s rank sum test for signal intensity, contingency tables for assessing reader agreement, concordance rate between the two readers with 95% CIs, and Fisher`s exact test for independence, all stratified by RCC type. RESULTS. Papillary RCCs and clear cell RCCs had a similar appearance and signal intensity ratio on T1-weighted images. On T2-weighted images, most papillary RCCs were hypointense (reader 1, 13/21; reader 2, 14/21), with an average mean signal intensity ratio for both readers of 0.67 +/- 0.2, and none was hyperintense, whereas most clear cell RCCs were hyperintense (reader 1, 21/28; reader 2, 17/28), with an average mean signal intensity ratio for both readers of 1.41 +/- 0.4 (p < 0.05). A tumor T2 signal intensity ratio of <= 0.66 had a specificity of 100% and sensitivity of 54% for papillary RCC. Most T2 hypointense tumors exhibited predominant papillary architecture; most T2 hyperintense tumors had a predominant nested architecture (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION. On T2-weighted images, most papillary RCCs are hypointense and clear cell RCCs, hyperintense. The T2 hypointense appearance of papillary RCCs correlated with a predominant papillary architecture at pathology.

Assessing deaf and hearing children`s communication in Brazil

In Brazil there are no specific tests for either signed or spoken language for deaf children. A protocol evaluating communicative abilities independent of modality of communication (sign language or spoken language), and comprising assessments of (a) pragmatic profile; (b) modality of communication and linguistic level; (c) complexity of communication; and (d) style and efficacy of communication between parent and child was administered to 127 deaf and hearing children. The children, aged 3-6 years old, were distributed in three groups: 20 with severe hearing loss, 40 with profound hearing loss and 67 normally hearing. Deaf children were found to be delayed, independent of their linguistic level and preferred modality of communication. The protocol in this study proved to be an useful instrument for gathering relevant information about the three groups of preschool children`s communicative abilities, and particularly suitable for use in countries where standardized assessments are not available. Learning outcomes: The reader will be introduced to the use of an assessment protocol comprising its development, application and data analysis. The reader will be informed about assessment of deaf children`s preferred modality of communication, by the participation of a bilingual (sign language user) professional. Communication abilities can be assessed independently of the linguistic modality. In developing countries in general, where simple and easy to administer assessments tools are scarce, such a protocol is of specific value. (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Screening Anal Dysplasia in HIV-Infected Patients: Is There an Agreement Between Anal Pap Smear and High-Resolution Anoscopy-Guided Biopsy?

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to analyze the agreement between anal Pap smear and high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy in diagnosing anal dysplasia in HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analysis of HIV-infected patients receiving anal dysplasia screening as part of routine care. Agreement between measures was estimated by weighted kappa statistics, using a three-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (normal, low-grade dysplasia, and high-grade dysplasia). Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated using a two-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (""without dysplasia"" and ""with dysplasia of any grade""). Estimates were also calculated for the detection of high-grade dysplasia. RESULTS: During a one-year period, 222 patients underwent 330 anal Pap smears followed by high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies. There were 311 satisfactory Pap smears with concurrent biopsies. Considering histology the standard, the frequency of anal dysplasia was 46%. Kappa agreement between anal Pap smear and biopsy was 0.20. For detection of anal dysplasia of any grade, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 61%, specificity of 60%, positive predictive value of 56%, and negative predictive value of 64%. For high-grade dysplasia, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 16% and specificity of 97%. CONCLUSION: Anal Pap smears alone were not sensitive enough to rule out anal dysplasia. We recommend that high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy be incorporated as a complementary screening test for anal dysplasia in high-risk patients. Following baseline high-resolution anoscopy, these individuals could be followed with serial anal cytology to dictate the need for future high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies.

AIDS in Latin America: assessing the current status of the epidemic and the ongoing response

Background This article provides a summary of the current status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Latin America, as well as an outline of the diverse responses to it. Methods A search of international databases (Pubmed and ISI-Web of Science), regional databases (Scielo and Lilacs), regional and national documents and UNAIDS reports. Data are presented according to subregion. Results In Mexico HIV remains concentrated among urban men who have sex with men (MSM), and has been growing among injecting drug users (IDU) and in rural areas in relation to migration. An increasing proportion of women among those affected is observed in all countries in Central America, the most affected region, as well as increasing the impact on other vulnerable groups, such as indigenous populations. The Andean Countries have urban epidemics concentrated among MSM. In Peru, non-traditional vulnerable populations were identified. In the Southern Cone heterosexual transmission became more relevant, probably in connection with IDU epidemics and is increasingly affecting lower income groups. Incidence rates have been declining since 2002 in Brazil, the first country to guarantee free, universal access to antiretrovirals, where one-third of drug-nave patients are still initiating treatment at an advanced stage. Generally, access to treatment has improved as a result of support from the Global Fund and other initiatives, but there are concerns regarding coverage, equity and sustainability. Conclusions HIV is still concentrated among MSM in Latin America. Non-traditional vulnerable groups such as migrants and lower income populations, usually considered part of the general population, deserve attention. Programmes confronting sexual exclusion are still needed. Access to treatment has improved over time, but inequalities persist.

Agreement for Detecting Glaucoma Progression with the GDx Guided Progression Analysis, Automated Perimetry, and Optic Disc Photography

Purpose: To evaluate the ability of the GDx Variable Corneal Compensation (VCC) Guided Progression Analysis (GPA) software for detecting glaucomatous progression. Design: Observational cohort study. Participants: The study included 453 eyes from 252 individuals followed for an average of 46 +/- 14 months as part of the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study. At baseline, 29% of the eyes were classified as glaucomatous, 67% of the eyes were classified as suspects, and 5% of the eyes were classified as healthy. Methods: Images were obtained annually with the GDx VCC and analyzed for progression using the Fast Mode of the GDx GPA software. Progression using conventional methods was determined by the GPA software for standard automated achromatic perimetry (SAP) and by masked assessment of optic disc stereophotographs by expert graders. Main Outcome Measures: Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios (LRs) for detection of glaucoma progression using the GDx GPA were calculated with SAP and optic disc stereophotographs used as reference standards. Agreement among the different methods was reported using the AC(1) coefficient. Results: Thirty-four of the 431 glaucoma and glaucoma suspect eyes (8%) showed progression by SAP or optic disc stereophotographs. The GDx GPA detected 17 of these eyes for a sensitivity of 50%. Fourteen eyes showed progression only by the GDx GPA with a specificity of 96%. Positive and negative LRs were 12.5 and 0.5, respectively. None of the healthy eyes showed progression by the GDx GPA, with a specificity of 100% in this group. Inter-method agreement (AC1 coefficient and 95% confidence intervals) for non-progressing and progressing eyes was 0.96 (0.94-0.97) and 0.44 (0.28-0.61), respectively. Conclusions: The GDx GPA detected glaucoma progression in a significant number of cases showing progression by conventional methods, with high specificity and high positive LRs. Estimates of the accuracy for detecting progression suggest that the GDx GPA could be used to complement clinical evaluation in the detection of longitudinal change in glaucoma. Financial Disclosure(s): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references. Ophthalmology 2010; 117: 462-470 (C) 2010 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.

Agreement between stress intraocular pressure and long-term intraocular pressure measurements in primary open angle glaucoma

The aim of this paper is to study the correlation between the intraocular pressure peaks and fluctuation detected during the water drinking test and the same parameters observed during long-term follow up. This prospective cohort study enrolled 22 eyes of 22 newly diagnosed primary open angle glaucoma patients. After an initial complete ophthalmological examination, patients were started on antiglaucoma medication and returned 4 weeks later to perform the water drinking test. Thereafter, patients were evaluated at least eight times within a period of 6-12 months. The intraocular pressure peaks and fluctuation detected during the water drinking stress test were compared with those observed during regular office visits. Spearman`s correlation coefficient and Bland-Altman Plots were used for statistical analysis. The mean age of participants was 54.3 +/- 8.2 years (+/- SD), 59% were women, and average mean deviation -10.2 +/- 4.5 dB. The mean follow-up period was 8.2 +/- 2.0 months. The average intraocular pressure peaks and fluctuation during the water drinking test were 20.0 +/- 2.9 mmHg and 40 +/- 10%, respectively, and 18.1 +/- 2.8 mmHg and 30 +/- 10% during follow up. Spearman`s correlation coefficients were significant and strong between the intraocular pressure peaks and fluctuation detected during the water drinking test and during the follow-up period (P < 0.001, rho = 0.76 and 0.82, respectively). There was good agreement between the variables. The intraocular pressure peaks and fluctuation detected during the water drinking test showed significant correlation and agreement with the pressures observed during follow-up visits. Stress tests could be used to estimate long-term intraocular pressure variation.