Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan

Using results from four coupled global carbon cycle-climate models combined with in situ observations, we estimate the effects of future global warming and ocean acidification on potential habitats for tropical/subtropical and temperate coral communities in the seas around Japan. The suitability of coral habitats is classified on the basis of the currently observed regional ranges for temperature and saturation states with regard to aragonite (Ωarag). We find that, under the "business as usual" SRES A2 scenario, coral habitats are projected to expand northward by several hundred kilometers by the end of this century. At the same time, coral habitats are projected to become sandwiched between regions where the frequency of coral bleaching will increase, and regions where Ωarag will become too low to support sufficiently high calcification rates. As a result, the habitat suitable for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan may be reduced by half by the 2020s to 2030s, and is projected to disappear by the 2030s to 2040s. The habitat suitable for the temperate coral communities is also projected to decrease, although at a less pronounced rate, due to the higher tolerance of temperate corals for low Ωarag. Our study has two important caveats: first, it does not consider the potential adaptation of the coral communities, which would permit them to colonize habitats that are outside their current range. Second, it also does not consider whether or not coral communities can migrate quickly enough to actually occupy newly emerging habitats. As such, our results serve as a baseline for the assessment of the future evolution of coral habitats, but the consideration of important biological and ecological factors and feedbacks will be required to make more accurate projections.

Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45). Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

As long as global CO₂ emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

Great Barrier Reef coral element/Ca and stable isotope data and U-Th ages from IODP Expedition 325

Tropical south-western Pacific temperatures are of vital importance to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), but the role of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the growth of the GBR since the Last Glacial Maximum remains largely unknown. Here we present records of Sr/Ca and d18O for Last Glacial Maximum and deglacial corals that show a considerably steeper meridional SST gradient than the present day in the central GBR. We find a 1-2 °C larger temperature decrease between 17° and 20°S about 20,000 to 13,000 years ago. The result is best explained by the northward expansion of cooler subtropical waters due to a weakening of the South Pacific gyre and East Australian Current. Our findings indicate that the GBR experienced substantial meridional temperature change during the last deglaciation, and serve to explain anomalous deglacial drying of northeastern Australia. Overall, the GBR developed through significant SST change and may be more resilient than previously thought.

Carbonate saturation in the water column of station M8_056 off Cap Sao Vincente, Portugal (Table 1)

Changes in the dissolved oxygen content, the alkalinity, and the pH in sea water near the ocean floor are interpreted in terms of chemical and biochemical processes at the sediment water interface. A simple model provides a plausible explanation of the observed phenomena. Special emphasis is given to the importance of borate corrections in the calculation of the solution effects of calcium carbonate.

Mineralogy and nannoplankton distribution in ODP Hole 194-1195A

Significant synchronous shifts in the chemistry, mineralogy, grain sizes and color of the sediments at 6 m below sea floor (mbsf) at ODP Site 1195 on the Marion Plateau (NE Australia) are interpreted to reflect a major regional paleoceanographic change: the initiation of the southern province of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The onset of this massive carbonate production centre nearby resulted primarily in increased deposition of carbonate-rich sediments of neritic origin. Both sedimentation rate and terrigenous input record a coincident decline attributed to inshore trapping of materials behind the reefs. Our best estimate places the development of reef framework in the southern part of the GBR between 560 and 670 kyr B.P., based on an age model combining magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data. The proposed estimation agrees with previous studies reporting an age between 500 and 930 kyr B.P., constraining more tightly their results. However, it does not support research placing the birth of the GBR in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (~400 kyr), nor the theory of a worldwide modern barrier reef development at that time.

Oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of shells from Radix sp. in lakes across the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), including its surrounding mountain ranges, represents the largest store of ice outside the polar regions. It hosts numerous lakes as well as the head waters of major Asian rivers, on which billions of people depend, and it is particularly sensitive to climate change. The moisture transport to the TP is controlled by the Indian and Pacific monsoon and the Westerlies. Understanding the evolution of the interaction of these circulation systems requires studies on climate archives in different spatial and temporal contexts. The objective of this study is to learn more about the interannual variability of precipitation patterns across the TP and how different hydrologic systems react to different climatic factors. Aragonite shells of the aquatic gastropod Radix, which is widely distributed in the region, may represent suitable archives for inferring hydrologic and climatic signals in particularly high resolution. Therefore, sclerochronological studies of d18O and d13C ratios in Radix shells from seven lakes were conducted, each representing a different hydrologic and climatic setting, on a transect from the Pamirs across the TP. The shell patterns exhibit an increasing influence of precipitation and a decreasing influence of evaporation on the isotope compositions from west to east. d18O values of shells from lakes on the eastern and central TP (Donggi Cona, Yamdrok Yumco, Tarab Co) mirror monsoon signals, indicated by more negative values and higher variabilities compared to the more western lakes (Karakul, Bangong/Nyak, Manasarovar). In Yadang Co, located on the central southern TP, the monsoon rains did not reach the lake in the sampling year, although it is located in a region which is usually affected by monsoon circulation. The d18O values are used to differentiate the annual hydrological cycle into ice cover period, melt water period, precipitation period and evaporation period. d13C compositions in the shells particularly depend on specific habitats, which vary in biological productivity and in carbon sources. d18O and d13C patterns show a positive covariance in shells originating from large closed basins. The results show that Radix shells mirror general climatic differences between the seven lake regions. These differences reflect both regional and local climate signals in sub-seasonal resolution, without noticeable dependence on the particular lake system.

Mineralogical and geochemical data from five lake sediment cores of Lake Donggi Cona

Sediments of Lake Donggi Cona on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were studied to infer changes in the lacustrine depositional environment, related to climatic and non-climatic changes during the last 19 kyr. The lake today fills a 30 X 8 km big and 95 m deep tectonic basin, associated with the Kunlun Fault. The study was conducted on a sediment-core transect through the lake basin, in order to gain a complete picture of spatiotemporal environmental change. The recovered sediments are partly finely laminated and are composed of calcareous muds with variable amounts of carbonate micrite, organic matter, detrital silt and clay. On the basis of sedimentological, geochemical, and mineralogical data up to five lithological units (LU) can be distinguished that document distinct stages in the development of the lake system. The onset of the lowermost LU with lacustrine muds above basal sands indicates that lake level was at least 39 m below the present level and started to rise after 19 ka, possibly in response to regional deglaciation. At this time, the lacustrine environment was characterized by detrital sediment influx and the deposition of siliciclastic sediment. In two sediment cores, upward grain-size coarsening documents a lake-level fall after 13 cal ka BP, possibly associated with the late-glacial Younger Dryas stadial. From 11.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP, grainsize fining in sediment cores from the profundal coring sites and the onset of lacustrine deposition at a litoral core site (2m water depth) in a recent marginal bay of Donggi Cona document lake-level rise during the early tomid-Holocene to at least modern level. In addition, high biological productivity and pronounced precipitation of carbonate micrites are consistent with warm and moist climate conditions related to an enhanced influence of summer monsoon. At 4.3 cal ka BP the lake system shifted from an aragonite- to a calcite-dominated system, indicating a change towards a fully open hydrological lake system. The younger clay-rich sediments are moreover non-laminated and lack any diagenetic sulphides, pointing to fully ventilated conditions, and the prevailing absence of lake stratification. This turning point in lake history could imply either a threshold response to insolation-forced climate cooling or a response to a non-climatic trigger, such as an erosional event or a tectonic pulse that induced a strong earthquake, which is difficult to decide from our data base.

Modern and fossil corals from Palmyra and Christmas islands

The relationship between decadal to centennial changes in ocean circulation and climate is difficult to discern using the sparse and discontinuous instrumental record of climate and, as such, represents a large uncertainty in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. We present new modern and fossil coral radiocarbon (D14C) records from Palmyra (6°N, 162°W) and Christmas (2°N, 157°W) islands to constrain central tropical Pacific ocean circulation changes during the last millennium. Seasonally to annually resolved coral D14C measurements from the 10th, 12th-17th, and 20th centuries do not contain significant interannual to decadal-scale variations, despite large changes in coral d18O on these timescales. A centennial-scale increase in coral radiocarbon from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~900-1200 AD) to the Little Ice Age (~1500-1800) can be largely explained by changes in the atmospheric D14C, as determined with a box model of Palmyra mixed layer D14C. However, large 12th century depletions in Palmyra coral D14C may reflect as much as a 100% increase in upwelling rates and/or a significant decrease in the D14C of higher-latitude source waters reaching the equatorial Pacific during this time. SEM photos reveal evidence for minor dissolution and addition of secondary aragonite in the fossil corals, but our results suggest that coral D14C is only compromised after moderate to severe diagenesis for these relatively young fossil corals.

Stable oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of Campanian grainstones and rudstones

Petrographic descriptions and stable oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of microsamples of Campanian-age sediment gravity-flow deposits from Northeast Providence Channel, Bahamas, indicate deep-marine cementation of shallow-marine skeletal grains that were transported to the channel during the Late Cretaceous. Shallow-marine components are represented by mollusks, especially rudists, and shallow-water benthic foraminifers as well as sparse echinoderm and algal grains. The sole evidence of diagenesis in shallow-marine environments consists of micrite envelopes around skeletal grains. Shallow-marine skeletal grains have mean stable isotope values of -3.1 per mil d18O and +2.6 per mil d13C. The d18O values are consistent with precipitation in equilibrium with warm (20°-30°C), shallow-marine water. Deep-marine components are represented by equant calcite spar cements and rip-up clasts of slope sediments. Spar cements, exhibiting hexagonal morphology with scalenohedral terminations, most commonly occur as thin isopachous linings in the abundant porosity. Deep-marine cements have mean stable isotope values of - 1.1 per mil d18O and +2.7 per mil d13C. Deep-marine cements are 18O-enriched relative to shallow-marine skeletal grains, consistent with precipitation in equilibrium with colder (10°-20°C), deep-marine waters. The cement .source during lithification appears to have been dissolution of aragonite and high-magnesium calcite skeletal grains, which made up part of the transported sediment. Interbedded periplatform ooze remains uncemented, or poorly cemented, probably because of lower permeability. Equant spar cements that occur in gravity-flow deposits recovered from Hole 634A have stable isotope compositions similar to spars in Lower and mid-Cretaceous shallow-water limestones exposed on the Bahama Escarpment, to Campanian-Paleocene deep-marine hardgrounds recovered during DSDP Leg 15 in the Caribbean, and to spars in Aptian-Albian talus deposits at the base of the Campeche Escarpment recovered during DSDP Leg 77.

Stable isotope composition of carbonate components of Rhaetian shallow-water limestones of the Wombat Plateau

Stable oxygen- and carbon-isotope ratios of Rhaetian (upper Triassic) limestone samples from the Wombat Plateau, northwest Australia, were measured to explore possible diagenetic pathways that the material underwent after deposition in a shallow-water environment, before plateau submergence in the Early Cretaceous. Host sediment isotopic values cluster near typical marine carbonate values (d18O ranging from -2.57 per mil to +1.78 per mil and d13C, from +2.45 per mil to +4.01 per mil). Isotopic values of equant clear calcite lining or filling rock pores also plot in the field of marine cements (d18O = +1.59 per mil to -2.24 per mil and d13C = +4.25 per mil to +2.57 per mil), while isotopic values for neomorphic calcites replacing skeletal (megalodontid shell) carbonate material show a wider scatter of oxygen and carbon values, d18O ranging from +2.73 per milo to -6.2 per mil and d13C, from +5.04 per mil to +1.22 per mil. Selective dissolution of metastable carbonate phases (aragonite?) and neomorphic replacement of skeletal material probably occurred in a meteoric phreatic environment, although replacement products (inclusion-rich microspar, clear neomorphic spar, etc.) retained the original marine isotopic signature because transformation probably occurred in a closed system dominated by the composition of the dissolving phases (high rock/water ratio). The precipitation of late-stage equant (low-Mg?) calcite cement in the pores occurred in the presence of normal marine waters, probably in a deep-water environment, after plateau drowning. Covariance of d18O and d13C toward negative values indeed suggests influence of meteorically modified fluids. However, none of the samples shows negative carbon values, excluding the persistence of organic-rich soils on subaerial karstic surfaces (Caribbean-style diagenesis). Petrographical and geochemical data are consistent with the sedimentological evidence of plateau drowning in post-Rhaetian times and with a submarine origin of the >70-m.y.-long Jurassic hiatus.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, chlorophyll a and photosynthetic carbon fixation rate under different light and pCO2 conditions during experiments, 2010

We carried out short term pCO2/pH perturbation experiments in the coastal waters of the South China Sea to evaluate the combined effects of seawater acidification (low pH/high pCO2) and solar UV radiation (UVR, 280-400 nm) on photosynthetic carbon fixation of phytoplankton assemblages. Under photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) alone treatments, reduced pCO2 (190 ppmv) with increased pH resulted in a significant decrease in the photosynthetic carbon fixation rate (about 23%), while enriched pCO2 (700 ppmv) with lowered pH had no significant effect on the photosynthetic performance compared to the ambient level. The apparent photosynthetic efficiency decreased under the reduced pCO2 level, probably due to C-limitation as well as energy being diverged for up-regulation of carbon concentrating mechanisms (CCMs). In the presence of UVR, both UV-A and UV-B caused photosynthetic inhibition, though UV-A appeared to enhance the photosynthetic efficiency under lower PAR levels. UV-B caused less inhibition of photosynthesis under the reduced pCO2 level, probably because of its contribution to the inorganic carbon (Ci)-acquisition processes. Under the seawater acidification conditions (enriched pCO2), both UV-A and UV-B reduced the photosynthetic carbon fixation to higher extents compared to the ambient pCO2 conditions. We conclude that solar UV and seawater acidification could synergistically inhibit photosynthesis.

Mineralogy of serpentine muds of ODP Leg 125 holes (Table 1)

Large serpentinite seamounts are common in the forearc regions between the trench axis and the active volcanic fronts of the Mariana and Izu-Bonin intraoceanic arcs. The seamounts apparently form both as mud volcanoes, composed of unconsolidated serpentine mud flows that have entrained metamorphosed ultramafic and mafic rocks, and as horst blocks, possibly diapirically emplaced, of serpentinized ultramafics partially draped with unconsolidated serpentine slump deposits and mud flows. The clayand silt-sized serpentine recovered from three sites on Conical Seamount on the Mariana forearc region and from two sites on Torishima Forearc Seamount on the Izu-Bonin forearc region is composed predominantly of chrysotile, brucite, chlorite, and clays. A variety of accessory minerals attest to the presence of unusual pore fluids in some of the samples. Aragonite, unstable at the depths at which the serpentine deposits were drilled, is present in many of the surficial cores from Conical Seamount. Sjogrenite minerals, commonly found as weathering products of serpentine resulting from interaction with groundwater, are found in most of the samples. The presence of aragonite and carbonate-hydroxide hydrate minerals argues for interaction of the serpentine deposits with fluids other than seawater. There are numerous examples of sedimentary serpentinite deposits exposed on land that are very similar to the deposits recovered from the serpentine seamounts drilled on ODP Leg 125. We suggest that Conical Seamount may be a type locality for the study of in situ formation of many of these sedimentary serpentinite bodies. Further, we suggest that both the deposits drilled on Conical Seamount and on Torishima Forearc Seamount demonstrate that serpentinization can continue in situ within the seamounts through interaction of the serpentine deposits with both seawater and subduction-related fluids.