Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

Long-term hydroclimatic change and interannual variability in water sources, Apex River (Iqaluit), Baffin Island, Nunavut

The eastern Canadian Arctic is home to Canada’s largest Indigenous population, which depends on local freshwater sources for drinking water. However, small watersheds have rarely been analyzed for long-term hydrologic response to changing climate. This study aims to address this issue by examining the Apex River, a small watershed with a long hydroclimatic record, near Iqaluit, Nunavut. Particular emphasis was placed on the long-term changes in climate and river discharge, and the seasonal variability of water sources between two snapshots in time, 1983 and 2013. Long-term hydrological data were obtained from gauge station 10UH002, operated by Environment and Climate Change Canada, and long-term meteorological data were acquired from Environment Canada–operated stations near Iqaluit Airport. Breakpoint analysis suggested that long-term mean annual surface air temperatures have increased since 1994. In contrast, no long-term total precipitation or annual discharge changes were observed. However, river flow initiation and cessation analyses of the Apex River flow season indicates that flow extended into the autumn since the 2000s. The 2013 flow season lasted 44 days longer than the 1983 flow season. Systematic river sampling was undertaken throughout the 2013 thaw season to determine contributing proportions of event (snowmelt or rainfall) and pre-event (baseflow) water to river runoff. Results from the stable isotope hydrograph separation for 2013 were compared to findings for 1983. Snow was the main source of water to the river during the snowmelt period in 1983 and 2013, however baseflow was still an important contributor. Although there was high similarity of water sources early in the season in 1983 and 2013, the two years differed during the autumn. In 2013 there was a high rainfall runoff response that was not present in 1983, suggesting high release of late-season sub-surface water storage and an increased sensitivity to late-season rainfall events in 2013. This research provides insights into the hydrologic response of the Apex River to long-term climatic change, and highlights the need for high-quality precipitation and discharge data for effective long-term hydrological assessment.

Predator-prey interactions between brown trout Salmo trutta and native and introduced amphipods; their implications for fish diets

An attempt to improve the food base for brown trout Salmo trutta in Northern Ireland was made in 1958.59 by deliberately introducing English Gammarus pulex into several Irish rivers. In addition. another amphipod Crangonyx pseudogracilis, was later accidently introduced into II ish waters. Our study represents the first attempt to examine the trophic interactions between a native fish predator (S. trutta) and an array of these native (Gammarus duebeni celticus) and introduced (G. pulex and C. pseudogracilis) amphipods. Feeding experiments, involving young brown trout predators and ampiphod prey, revealed that the fish actively selected C. pseudogracilis relative to two alternative Gammarus prey species. Although the trout encountered the Gammarus species more than C. pseudogracilis, they were eaten less than Crangonyx. Difficulties in handling and ingestion of Gammarus by trout may be a. key component of the preference fbr the smaller, more easily handled Crangonyx. The microdistribution of the species was altered by the fish, due to predation being greater in particular microhabitats, Our study showed that the introduction of the herbivorous C. pseudogracilis into Irish freshwaters may represent a useful addition to fish diets. particularly for small and/or juvenile fish. The reprecussions of the deliberate introduction of G. pulex are less clear. It may improve feeding for fish. but only if it can coexist with indigenous macroinvertebrates and thus ultimately improve the range and quantity of possible food items in predator diets. Alternatively, being highly predatory towards other macroinvertebrates including G. d. celticus and C. pseudogracilis. G. pulex may be deleterious to the diversity of the resident benthic community and hence reduce the diversity of prey available to fish predators.

Simulated predator extinctions: Predator identity affects survival and recruitment of oysters

The rate of species loss is increasing at a global scale, and human-induced extinctions are biased toward predator species. We examined the effects of predator extinctions on a foundation species, the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica). We performed a factorial experiment manipulating the presence and abundance of three of the most common predatory crabs, the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), stone crab (Menippe mercenaria), and mud crab (Panopeus herbstii) in estuaries in the eastern United States. We tested the effects of species richness and identity of predators on juvenile oyster survival, oyster recruitment, and organic matter content of sediment. We also manipulated the density of each of the predators and controlled for the loss of biomass of species by maintaining a constant mass of predators in one set of treatments and simultaneously using an additive design. This design allowed us to test the density dependence of our results and test for functional compensation by other species. The identity of predator species, but not richness, affected oyster populations. The loss of blue crabs, alone or in combination with either of the other species, affected the survival rate of juvenile oysters. Blue crabs and stone crabs both affected oyster recruitment and sediment organic matter negatively. Mud crabs at higher than ambient densities, however, could fulfill some of the functions of blue and stone crabs, suggesting a level of ecological redundancy. Importantly, the strong effects of blue crabs in all processes measured no longer occurred when individuals were present at higher-than-ambient densities. Their role as dominant predator is, therefore, dependent on their density within the system and the density of other species within their guild (e.g., mud crabs). Our findings support the hypothesis that the effects of species loss at higher trophic levels are determined by predator identity and are subject to complex intraguild interactions that are largely density dependent. Understanding the role of biodiversity in ecosystem functioning or addressing practical concerns, such as loss of predators owing to overharvesting, remains complicated because accurate predictions require detailed knowledge of the system and should be drawn from sound experimental evidence, not based on observations or generalized models.

The ocean sunfish Mola mola: insights into distribution, abundance and behaviour in the Irish and Celtic Seas

Here we provide baseline data on the distribution and abundance of Mola mola within the Irish and Celtic Seas, made during aerial surveys from June to October during 2003-2005. These data were considered in conjunction with concurrent observations of three potential jellyfish prey species found throughout the region: Rhizostoma octopus, Chrysaora hysoscella and Cyanea capillata. A total area of 7850 km(2) was surveyed over the three years with an observed abundance of 68 sunfish giving a density of 0.98 ind/100 km(2). Although modest, these findings highlight that the species is more common than once thought around Britain and Ireland and an order of magnitude greater than the other apex jellyfish predator found in the region, the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea). furthermore, the distribution of sunfish sightings was inconsistent with the extensive aggregations of Rhizostoma octopus found throughout the study area. The modelled distributions of predator-prey co-occurrence (using data for all three jellyfish species) was less than the observed co-occurrence with the implication that neither jellyfish nor sunfish were randomly distributed but co-occurred more in the same areas than expected by chance. Finally, observed sunfish were typically small (similar to 1 in or less) and seen to either bask or actively swim at the surface.

Temporal Variability in Predator-Prey Relationships of a Forest Floor Food Web

Connectance webs represent the standard data description in food web ecology, but their usefulness is often limited in understanding the patterns and processes within ecosystems. Increasingly, efforts have been made to incorporate additional, biologically meaningful, data into food web descriptions, including the construction of food webs using data describing the body size and abundance of each species. Here, data from a terrestrial forest floor food web, sampled seasonally over a 1-year period, were analysed to investigate (i) how stable the body size abundance and predator prey relationships of an ecosystem are through time and (ii) whether there are system-specific differences in body size abundance and predator prey relationships between ecosystem types.

Temperature, predator-prey interaction strength and population stability

Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here, we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data, we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally, we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups, warming increased metabolic rates substantially, whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly, the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand, it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability, meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand, decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally, predicted long-term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming, which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations, i.e., a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together, these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator-prey interactions and food-web stability.

Predator diversity enhances secondary production and decreases the likelihood of trophic cascades

We manipulated the diversity of top predators in a three trophic level marine food web. The food web included four top benthic marine fish predators (black goby, rock goby, sea scorpion and shore rockling), an intermediate trophic level of small fish, and a lower trophic level of benthic invertebrates. We kept predator density constant and monitored the response of the lower trophic levels. As top predator diversity increased, secondary production increased. We also observed that in the presence of the manipulated fish predators, the density of small gobiid fish (intermediate consumers) was suppressed, releasing certain groups of benthic invertebrates (caprellid amphipods, copepods, nematodes and spirorbid worms) from heavy intermediate predation pressure. We attribute the mechanism responsible for this trophic cascade to a trait-mediated indirect interaction, with the small gobiid fish changing their use of space in response to altered predator diversity. In the absence of top fish predators, a full-blown trophic cascade occurs. Therefore the diversity of predators reduces the likelihood of trophic cascades occurring and hence provides insurance against the loss of an important ecosystem function (i.e. secondary production).

Predator-prey body size, interaction strength and the stability of a real food web

1. We examined the empirical relationship between predator-prey body size ratio and interaction strength in the Ythan Estuary food web.

Ecological impacts of an invasive predator explained and predicted by comparative functional responses

Forecasting the ecological impacts of invasive species is a major challenge that has seen little progress, yet the development of robust predictive approaches is essential as new invasion threats continue to emerge. A common feature of ecologically damaging invaders is their ability to rapidly exploit and deplete resources. We thus hypothesized that the 'functional response' (the relationship between resource density and consumption rate) of such invasive species might be of consistently greater magnitude than those of taxonomically and/or trophically similar native species. Here, we derived functional responses of the predatory Ponto-Caspian freshwater 'bloody red' shrimp, Hemimysis anomala, a recent and ecologically damaging invader in Europe and N. America, in comparison to the local native analogues Mysis salemaai and Mysis diluviana in Ireland and Canada, respectively. This was conducted in a novel set of experiments involving multiple prey species in each geographic location and a prey species that occurs in both regions. The predatory functional responses of the invader were generally higher than those of the comparator native species and this difference was consistent across invaded regions. Moreover, those prey species characterized by the strongest and potentially de-stabilizing Type II functional responses in our laboratory experiments were the same prey species found to be most impacted by H. anomala in the field. The impact potential of H. anomala was further indicated when it exhibited similar or higher attack rates, consistently lower prey handling times and higher maximum feeding rates compared to those of the two Mysis species, formerly known as 'Mysis relicta', which itself has an extensive history of foodweb disruption in lakes to which it has been introduced. Comparative functional responses thus merit further exploration as a methodology for predicting severe community-level impacts of current and future invasive species and could be entered into risk assessment protocols.

Downregulation of the motA gene delays the escape of the obligate predator Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus 109J from bdelloplasts of bacterial prey cells

Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus is a Gram-negative bacterium that preys on other Gram-negative bacteria. The lifecycle of B. bacteriovorus alternates between an extracellular flagellated and highly motile non-replicative attack-phase cell and a periplasmic non-flagellated growth-phase cell. The prey bacterium containing periplasmic bdellovibrios becomes spherical but osmotically stable, forming a structure known as the bdelloplast. After completing the growth phase, newly formed bdellovibrios regain their flagellum and escape the bdelloplast into the environment, where they encounter more prey bacteria. The obligate predatory nature of B. bacteriovorus imposes a major difficulty to introducing mutations in genes directly involved in predation, since these mutants could be non-viable. This work reports the cloning of the B. bacteriovorus 109J motAB operon, encoding proteins from the flagellar motor complex, and a genetic approach based on the expression of a motA antisense RNA fragment to downregulate motility. Periplasmic bdellovibrios carrying the plasmid expressing antisense RNA displayed a marked delay in escaping from bdelloplasts, while the released attack-phase cells showed altered motility. These observations suggest that a functionally intact flagellar motor is required for the predatory lifecycle of B. bacteriovorus. Also, the use of antisense RNA expression may be a useful genetic tool to study the Bdellovibrio developmental cycle.