On the existence of uni-instantaneous Q-processes with a given finite mu-invariant measure

Let S be a countable set and let Q = (q(ij), i, j is an element of S) be a conservative q-matrix over S with a single instantaneous state b. Suppose that we are given a real number mu >= 0 and a strictly positive probability measure m = (m(j), j is an element of S) such that Sigma(i is an element of S) m(i)q(ij) = -mu m(j), j 0 b. We prove that there exists a Q-process P(t) = (p(ij) (t), i, j E S) for which m is a mu-invariant measure, that is Sigma(i is an element of s) m(i)p(ij)(t) = e(-mu t)m(j), j is an element of S. We illustrate our results with reference to the Kolmogorov 'K 1' chain and a birth-death process with catastrophes and instantaneous resurrection.

An optimal sequential procedure for a buying-selling problem with independent observations

We consider a buying-selling problem when two stops of a sequence of independent random variables are required. An optimal stopping rule and the value of a game are obtained.

Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases

Many populations have a negative impact on their habitat or upon other species in the environment if their numbers become too large. For this reason they are often subjected to some form of control. One common control regime is the reduction regime: when the population reaches a certain threshold it is controlled (for example culled) until it falls below a lower predefined level. The natural model for such a controlled population is a birth-death process with two phases, the phase determining which of two distinct sets of birth and death rates governs the process. We present formulae for the probability of extinction and the expected time to extinction, and discuss several applications. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The cross-entropy method for continuous multi-extremal optimization

In recent years, the cross-entropy method has been successfully applied to a wide range of discrete optimization tasks. In this paper we consider the cross-entropy method in the context of continuous optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the cross-entropy method for solving difficult continuous multi-extremal optimization problems, including those with non-linear constraints.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A generalisation of the Delogne-Kasa method for fitting hyperspheres

In this paper, we examine the problem of fitting a hypersphere to a set of noisy measurements of points on its surface. Our work generalises an estimator of Delogne (Proc. IMEKO-Symp. Microwave Measurements 1972,117-123) which he proposed for circles and which has been shown by Kasa (IEEE Trans. Instrum. Meas. 25, 1976, 8-14) to be convenient for its ease of analysis and computation. We also generalise Chan's 'circular functional relationship' to describe the distribution of points. We derive the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) under this model and we derive approximations for the mean and variance for fixed sample sizes when the noise variance is small. We perform a statistical analysis of the estimate of the hypersphere's centre. We examine the existence of the mean and variance of the estimator for fixed sample sizes. We find that the mean exists when the number of sample points is greater than M + 1, where M is the dimension of the hypersphere. The variance exists when the number of sample points is greater than M + 2. We find that the bias approaches zero as the noise variance diminishes and that the variance approaches the CRLB. We provide simulation results to support our findings.

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimensioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation which improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.

Estimating buffer overflows in three stages using cross-entropy

In this paper we propose a fast adaptive Importance Sampling method for the efficient simulation of buffer overflow probabilities in queueing networks. The method comprises three stages. First we estimate the minimum Cross-Entropy tilting parameter for a small buffer level; next, we use this as a starting value for the estimation of the optimal tilting parameter for the actual (large) buffer level; finally, the tilting parameter just found is used to estimate the overflow probability of interest. We recognize three distinct properties of the method which together explain why the method works well; we conjecture that they hold for quite general queueing networks. Numerical results support this conjecture and demonstrate the high efficiency of the proposed algorithm.