A commentary on climate change, stone decay dynamics and the ‘greening’ of natural stone buildings: new perspectives on ‘deep wetting’

Environmental controls on stone decay processes are rapidly changing as a result of changing climate. UKCP09 projections for the 2020s (2010–2039) indicate that over much of the UK seasonality of precipitation will increase. Summer dryness and winter wetness are both set to increase, the latter linked to projected precipitation increases in autumn and spring months. If so, this could increase the time that stone structures remain wet and possibly the depth of moisture penetration, and it appears that building stone in Northern Ireland has already responded through an increased incidence of algal ‘greening’.This paper highlights the need for understanding the effects of climate change through a series of studies of largely sandstone structures. Current and projected climatic trends are therefore considered to have aesthetic, physical and chemical implications that are not currently built into our models of sandstone decay, especially with respect to the role played by deep-seated wetness on sandstone deterioration and decay progression and the feedbacks associated with, for example surface algal growth. In particular,it is proposed that algal biofilms will aid moisture retention and further facilitate moisture and dissolved salt penetration to depth. Thus, whilst the outer surface of stone may continue to experience frequent wetting and drying associated with individual precipitation events, the latter is less likely to be complete, and the interiors of building blocks may only experience wetting/drying in response to seasonal cycling. A possible consequence of deeper salt penetration could be a delay in the onset of surface deterioration,but more rapid and effective retreat once it commences as decay mechanisms ‘tap into a reservoir of deep salt’.

Indicators of the impact of climate change on migratory species

The Bonn Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals adopted a Resolution in 2005 recognising the impacts of climate change on migratory species. It called on Contracting Parties to undertake more research to improve our understanding of these impacts and to implement adaptation measures to reduce foreseeable adverse effects. Given the large diversity of taxa and species affected by climate change, it is impossible to monitor all species and effects thereof. However, it is likely that many of the key ecological and physical processes through which climate change may impact wildlife could be monitored using a suite of indicators, each comprising parameters of species/populations or groups of species as proxies for wider assemblages, habitats and ecosystems. Herein, we identify a suite of 17 indicators whose attributes could reveal negative impacts of climate change on the global status of migratory species: 4 for birds, 4 for marine mammals, 2 for sea turtles, 1 for fish, 3 for land mammals and 3 for bats. A few of these indicators would be relatively straightforward to develop, but most would require additional data collation, and in many cases methodological development. Choosing and developing indicators of the impacts of climate change on migratory species is a challenge, particularly with endangered species, which are subject to many other pressures. To identify and implement conservation measures for these species, indicators must account for the full ensemble of pressures, and link to a system of alerts and triggers for action.

Unique genetic variation at a species' rear edge is under threat from global climate change

Global climate change is having a significant effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species, causing both range shifts and population extinctions. To date, however, no consensus has emerged on how these processes will affect the range-wide genetic diversity of impacted species. It has been suggested that species that recolonized from low-latitude refugia might harbour high levels of genetic variation in rear-edge populations, and that loss of these populations could cause a disproportionately large reduction in overall genetic diversity in such taxa. In the present study, we have examined the distribution of genetic diversity across the range of the seaweed Chondrus crispus, a species that has exhibited a northward shift in its southern limit in Europe over the last 40 years. Analysis of 19 populations from both sides of the North Atlantic using mitochondrial single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), sequence data from two singlecopy nuclear regions and allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci revealed unique genetic variation for all marker classes in the rear-edge populations in Iberia, but not in the rear-edge populations in North America. Palaeodistribution modelling and statistical testing of alternative phylogeographic scenarios indicate that the unique genetic diversity in Iberian populations is a result not only of persistence in the region during the last glacial maximum, but also because this refugium did not contribute substantially to the recolonization of Europe after the retreat of the ice. Consequently, loss of these rear-edge populations as a result of ongoing climate change will have a major effect on the overall genetic diversity of the species, particularly in Europe, and this could compromise the adaptive potential of the species as a whole in the face of future global warming.

Condition Assessment and Preservation of Open-Air Rock Art Panels During Climate Change

Thousands of Neolithic and Bronze Age open-air rock art panels exist across the countryside in northern England. However, desecration, pollution, and other factors are threatening the survival of these iconic stone monuments. Evidence suggest that rates of panel deterioration may be increasing, although it is not clear whether this is due to local factors or wider environmental influences accelerated by environmental change. To examine this question, 18 rock art panels with varied art motifs were studied at two major panel locations at Lordenshaw and Weetwood Moor in Northumberland. A condition assessment
tool was used to first quantify the level of deterioration of each panel (called “staging”). Stage estimates then were compared statistically with 27 geochemical and physical descriptors of local environments, such as soil moisture, salinity, pH, lichen coverage, soil anions and cation levels, and panel orientation, slope, and standing height. In parallel, climate modelling was performed using UKCP09 to assess how projected climatic conditions (to 2099) might affect the environmental descriptors most correlated with elevated stone deterioration. Only two descriptors significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with increased stage: the standing height of the panel and the exchangeable cation content of the local soils, although moisture conditions also were potentially influential at some panels. Climate modelling predicts warming temperatures, more seasonally variable precipitation, and increased wind speeds, which hint stone deterioration could accelerate in the future due to increased physiochemical weathering. We recommend key panels be targeted for immediate management intervention, focusing on reducing wind exposures, improving site drainage, and potentially immobilizing soil salts.

Climate change and decadal to centennial-scale periodicities recorded in a late Holocene NE Pacific marine record: Examining the role of solar forcing

We present a decadal-scale late Holocene climate record based on diatoms, biogenic silica, and grain size from a 12-m sediment core (VEC02A04) obtained from Frederick Sound in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of British Columbia, Canada. Sediments are characterized by graded, massive, and laminated intervals. Laminated intervals are most common between c. 2948–2708 cal. yr BP and c. 1992–1727 cal. yr BP. Increased preservation of laminated sediments and diatom assemblage changes at this time suggest that cli- mate became moderately drier and cooler relative to the preceding and succeeding intervals. Spectral and wavelet analyses are used to test for statistically significant periodicities in time series of proxies of primary production (total diatom abundance, biogenic silica) and hydrology (grain size) preserved in the Frederick Sound record. Periodicities of c. 42–53, 60–70, 82–89, 241–243, and 380 yrs are present. Results are com- pared to reconstructed sunspot number data of Solanki et al. (2004) using cross wavelet transform to evalu- ate the role of solar forcing on NE Pacific climate. Significant common power of periodicities between c. 42– 60, 70–89, 241–243, and of 380 yrs occur, suggesting that celestial forcing impacted late Holocene climate at Frederick Sound. Replication of the c. 241–243 yr periodicity in sunspot time series is most pronounced be- tween c. 2900 cal. yr BP and c. 2000 cal. yr BP, broadly correlative to the timing of maximum preservation of laminated sedimentary successions and diatom assemblage changes. High solar activity at the Suess/de Vries band may have been manifested as a prolonged westward shift and/or weakening of the Aleutian Low in the mid-late Holocene, which would have diverted fewer North Pacific storms and resulted in the relatively dry conditions reconstructed for the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex.

Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.

Power, Contextual Intelligence and Leadership: Research Approaches for Understanding Participatory Community Climate Change Adaptation

Analysis of power in natural resources management is important as multiple stakeholders interact within complex, social-ecological systems. As a sub-set of these interactions, community climate change adaptation is increasingly using participatory processes to address issues of local concern. While some attention has been paid to power relations in this respect, e.g. evaluating international climate regimes or assessing vulnerability as part of integrated impact assessments, little attention has been paid to how a structured assessment of power could facilitate real adaptation and increase the potential for successful participatory processes. This paper surveys how the concept of power is currently being applied in natural resources management and links these ideas to agency and leadership for climate change adaptation. By exploring behavioural research on destructive leadership, a model is developed for informing participatory climate change adaptation. The working paper then concludes with a discussion of developing research questions in two specific areas - examining barriers to adaptation and mapping the evolution of specific participatory processes for climate change adaptation.

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change in Quebec : the co-construction of agricultural policies in the RCM of Haut-Richelieu

Les facteurs climatiques ainsi bien que les facteurs non-climatiques doivent être pris en considération dans le processus d'adaptation de l'agriculture aux changements et à la variabilité climatiques (CVC). Ce changement de paradigme met l'agent humain au centre du processus d'adaptation, ce qui peut conduire à une maladaptation. Suite aux débats sur les changements climatiques qui ont attiré l'attention scientifique et publique dans les années 1980 et 1990, l'agriculture canadienne est devenue un des points focaux de plusieurs études pionnières sur les CVC, un phénomène principalement dû à l’effet anthropique. Pour faire face aux CVC, ce n’est pas seulement la mitigation qui est importante mais aussi l’adaptation. Quand il s'agit de l'adaptation, c'est plutôt la variabilité climatique qui nous intéresse que simplement les augmentations moyennes des températures. L'objectif général de ce mémoire de maîtrise est d'améliorer la compréhension des processus d'adaptation et de construction de la capacité d'adaptation ai niveau de la ferme et de la communauté agricole à travers un processus ascendant, c’est-à-dire en utilisant l'approche de co-construction (qui peut également être considéré comme une stratégie d'adaptation en soi), pour développer une gestion et des outils de planification appropriés aux parties prenantes pour accroître ainsi la capacité d'adaptation de la communauté agricole. Pour y arriver, l'approche grounded theory est utilisée. Les résultats consistent de cinq catégories interdépendantes de codes élargis, conceptuellement distinctes et avec un plus grand niveau d'abstraction. La MRC du Haut-Richelieu a été choisie comme étude de cas en raison de plusieurs de ses dimensions agricoles, à part de ses conditions biophysiques favorables. 15 entrevues ont été menées avec les agriculteurs. Les résultats montrent que si certains agriculteurs ont reconnu les côtés positifs et négatifs des CVC, d’autres sont très optimistes à ce sujet comme se ils ne voient que le côté positif; d'où la nécessité de voir les deux côtés des CVC. Aussi, il y a encore une certaine incertitude liée aux CVC, qui vient de la désinformation et la désensibilisation des agriculteurs principalement en ce qui concerne les causes des CVC ainsi que la nature des événements climatiques. En outre, et compte tenu du fait que l'adaptation a plusieurs caractéristiques et types, il existe de nombreux types d'adaptation qui impliquent à la fois l'acteur privé et le gouvernement. De plus, les stratégies d'adaptation doivent être élaborées conjointement par les agriculteurs en concert avec d'autres acteurs, à commencer par les agronomes, car ils servent en tant que relais important entre les agriculteurs et d'autres parties prenantes telles que les institutions publiques et les entreprises privées.

Significance of soil microorganisms with special reference to climate change

There are a large number of agronomic-ecological interactions that occur in a world with increasing levels of CO2, higher temperatures and a more variable climate. Climate change and the associated severe problems will alter soil microbial populations and diversity. Soils supply many atmospheric green house gases by performing as sources or sinks. The most important of these gases include CH4, CO2 and N2O. Most of the green house gases production and consumption processes in soil are probably due to microorganisms. There is strong inquisitiveness to store carbon (C) in soils to balance global climate change. Microorganisms are vital to C sequestration by mediating putrefaction and controlling the paneling of plant residue-C between CO2 respiration losses or storage in semi-permanent soil-C pools. Microbial population groups and utility can be manipulated or distorted in the course of disturbance and C inputs to either support or edge the retention of C. Fungi play a significant role in decomposition and appear to produce organic matter that is more recalcitrant and favor long-term C storage and thus are key functional group to focus on in developing C sequestration systems. Plant residue chemistry can influence microbial communities and C loss or flow into soil C pools. Therefore, as research takings to maximize C sequestration for agricultural and forest ecosystems - moreover plant biomass production, similar studies should be conducted on microbial communities that considers the environmental situations

Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change

The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whose amplitude is more than those of the surrounding oceans. Using idealised GCM experiments with perturbed SSTs, we show that the land/sea contrast in equilibrium simulations is associated with local feedbacks and the hydrological cycle over land, rather than with externally imposed radiative forcing. This mechanism also explains a large component of the land/sea contrast in transient simulations as well. We propose a conceptual model with three elements: (1) there is a spatially variable level in the lower troposphere at which temperature change is the same over land and sea; (2) the dependence of lapse rate on moisture and temperature causes different changes in lapse rate upon warming over land and sea, and hence a surface land/sea temperature contrast; (3) moisture convergence over land predominantly takes place at levels significantly colder than the surface; wherever moisture supply over land is limited, the increase of evaporation over land upon warming is limited, reducing the relative humidity in the boundary layer over land, and hence also enhancing the land/sea contrast. The non-linearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship of saturation specific humidity to temperature is critical in (2) and (3). We examine the sensitivity of the land/sea contrast to model representations of different physical processes using a large ensemble of climate model integrations with perturbed parameters, and find that it is most sensitive to representation of large-scale cloud and stomatal closure. We discuss our results in the context of high-resolution and Earth-system modelling of climate change.

Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change.

This paper describes the development and first results of the “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the community of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers’ ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth’s climate system is provided.

Interpreting the response of a dryland river system to Late Quaternary climate change

A U-series calcrete chronology has been constructed for three Late Quaternary terrace units, termed the D1, D2 and D3 terraces in age descending order, from the Rio Aguas river system of the Sorbas basin, southeast Spain. The D1 terrace formed between 30,300 +/- 4400 year BP and 12,140 +/- 360 year BP, correlating well with the Last Glacial Maximum when rates of sediment supply would have increased greatly, because of higher rates of weathering, reduced vegetation cover and weak soil development. The D2 terrace formed between 12,800 +/- 1100 year BP and 9,600 +/- 530 year BP, correlating well with the Younger Dryas event. The D3 terrace could only be poorly constrained to the early Holocene and no unequivocal cause could be assigned to this period of aggradation. The sedimentology and geomorphology of the D2 terrace suggests, however, that the aggradation of this unit was a response to diapirism/karstic processes occurring within the underlying Messinian gypsum strata and the subsequent damming of the Aguas system. Therefore, despite its coincident occurrence with the Younger Dryas, aggradation of the D2 terrace is unrelated to climate change. The style of this response, controlled predominantly by the characteristics of the underlying bedrock, makes correlating the terrace record of the Aguas with other systems in the Mediterranean unreliable. This study, therefore, highlights the problems of correlating fluvial sequences in regions of variable tectonics, climatic history and bedrock geology and emphasises the need to properly understand the main controls on individual fluvial systems before any attempt is made to correlate their depositional histories. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change

This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial scales: global, regional (four consortia areas), and meso scale (case studies within the four regions). At all three scales of analysis water resources form the interweaving theme because water provides a vital provisioning service for people, supports all other ecosystem processes and because water resources are forecast to be severely affected under climate change scenarios. This report, combined with an Endnote library of over 1100 scientific papers, provides an annotated bibliography of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. After an introductory, section, Section 2 of the report defines water-related ecosystem services and how these are affected by human activities. Current knowledge and research gaps are then explored in relation to global scale climate and related hydrological changes (e.g. floods, droughts, flow regimes) (section 3). The report then discusses the impacts of climate changes on the ESPA regions, emphasising potential responses of biomes to the combined effects of climate change and human activities (particularly land use and management), and how these effects coupled with water store and flow regime manipulation by humans may affect the functioning of catchments and their ecosystem services (section 4). Finally, at the meso-scale, case studies are presented from within the ESPA regions to illustrate the close coupling of human activities and catchment performance in the context of environmental change (section 5). At the end of each section, research needs are identified and justified. These research needs are then amalgamated in section 6.

Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.