Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

A comparative study of alternative approaches for common factors identification

Preliminary version

Particle swarm optimization based approaches to vehicle-to-grid scheduling

This paper addresses the problem of energy resources management using modern metaheuristics approaches, namely Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), New Particle Swarm Optimization (NPSO) and Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO). The addressed problem in this research paper is intended for aggregators’ use operating in a smart grid context, dealing with Distributed Generation (DG), and gridable vehicles intelligently managed on a multi-period basis according to its users’ profiles and requirements. The aggregator can also purchase additional energy from external suppliers. The paper includes a case study considering a 30 kV distribution network with one substation, 180 buses and 90 load points. The distribution network in the case study considers intense penetration of DG, including 116 units from several technologies, and one external supplier. A scenario of 6000 EVs for the given network is simulated during 24 periods, corresponding to one day. The results of the application of the PSO approaches to this case study are discussed deep in the paper.

Ancillary services dispatch using linear programming and genetic algorithm approaches

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment requires access to an adequate decision support tool, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. For this, decision support tools must include ancillary market simulation. This paper proposes two different methods (Linear Programming and Genetic Algorithm approaches) for ancillary services dispatch. The methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A test case concerning the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve services is included in this paper.

Inexact restoration approaches to solve mathematical program with complementarity constraints

Mathematical Program with Complementarity Constraints (MPCC) finds applica- tion in many fields. As the complementarity constraints fail the standard Linear In- dependence Constraint Qualification (LICQ) or the Mangasarian-Fromovitz constraint qualification (MFCQ), at any feasible point, the nonlinear programming theory may not be directly applied to MPCC. However, the MPCC can be reformulated as NLP problem and solved by nonlinear programming techniques. One of them, the Inexact Restoration (IR) approach, performs two independent phases in each iteration - the feasibility and the optimality phases. This work presents two versions of an IR algorithm to solve MPCC. In the feasibility phase two strategies were implemented, depending on the constraints features. One gives more importance to the complementarity constraints, while the other considers the priority of equality and inequality constraints neglecting the complementarity ones. The optimality phase uses the same approach for both algorithm versions. The algorithms were implemented in MATLAB and the test problems are from MACMPEC collection.

Immune responses in Bathymodiolus azoricus upon Vibrio challenges : approaches to characterize mussel survival strategies and physiological adaptations in deep sea extreme environments

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, especialidade de Biologia Marinha, 18 de Dezembro de 2015, Universidade dos Açores.

Development of TNBS-induced colitis: animal model to test new pharmacological approaches

IBD is a gastro-intestinal disorder marked with chronic inflammation of intestinal epithelium, damaging mucosal tissue and manifests into several intestinal and extra-intestinal symptoms. Currently used medical therapy is able to induce and maintain the patient in remission, however no modifies or reverses the underlying pathogenic mechanism. The research of other medical approaches is crucial to the treatment of IBD and, for this, it´s important to use animal models to mimic the characteristics of disease in real life. The aim of the study is to develop an animal model of TNBS-induced colitis to test new pharmacological approaches. TNBS was instilled intracolonic single dose as described by Morris et al. It was administered 2,5% TNBS in 50% ethanol through a catheter carefully inserted into the colon. Mice were kept in a Tredelenburg position to avoid reflux. On day 4 and 7, the animals were sacrificed by cervical dislocation. The induction was confirmed based on clinical symptoms/signs, ALP determination and histopathological analysis. At day 4, TNBS group presented a decreased body weight and an alteration of intestinal motility characterized by diarrhea, severe edema of the anus and moderate morbidity, while in the two control groups weren’t identified any alteration on the clinical symptoms/signs with an increase of the body weight. TNBS group presented the highest concentrations of ALP comparing with control groups. The histopathology analysis revealed severe necrosis of the mucosa with widespread necrosis of the intestinal glands. Severe hemorrhagic and purulent exsudates were observed in the submucosa, muscular and serosa. TNBS group presented clinical symptoms/signs and histopathological features compatible with a correct induction of UC. The peak of manifestations became maximal at day 4 after induction. This study allows concluding that it’s possible to develop a TNBS induced colitis 4 days after instillation.

Nephrotoxicity effects of the wood preservative chromium copper arsenate on mice: histopathological and quantitative approaches

Chromium copper arsenate(CCA)was used for the protection of wood building material suntil the restriction by EPA in2002. During a short period of time 14–24h,a comparative nephrotoxicity study was performed regarding the effects of CCA and its compounds per se. Histopathological and histochemical features were correlated with the concentration of the total arsenic and chromium in mice kidney. Animals were subcutaneously injected with CCA(7.2mg/kg arsenic and 10.2mg/kg chromium per body weight), CrO3 (10.2 mg/kg),As2O5 (7.2 mg/kg)andNaCl(0.9%) per se. The histopathological examination of the renal sections evidenced acute tubular necrosis in the groups of animals exposed to CCA(in both periods of time). Although the same contents of pentavalent arsenic and hexavalent chromium were injected in treated animals with CCA and with the prepared solutions of As2O5 and CrO3, the arsenic concentration on kidneys of CCA-exposed animals was much higher than those in animals exposed to As2O5 (32- and28-fold higher at 14 and 24h,respectively). However,the elimination of chromium seems to occur similarly in the kidneys of animals treated with CCA and CrO3 per se. Interactions among the components of CCA result in a marked decrease of the ability of kidney to eliminate simultaneously both analytes.The nephrotoxicity of CCA was higher than its components per se, evidencing a possible synergetic effect.

Comparison of allocation approaches in soybean biodiesel life cycle assessment

This work shows the influence of using different allocation approaches when modelling the inventory analysis in a soybean biodiesel life cycle assessment (LCA). Results obtained using mass, energy and economic based allocations are compared, focusing on the following aspects: normalised potential environmental impact (PEI) categories, total PEI and relative contributions to the total PEI from each life cycle stage and environmental impact category. Similar results are obtained either using economic and energy based allocations. However, different results are obtained when mass based allocation is used when compared with the other two. This study also illustrates that using different allocation approaches in biodiesel LCA may influence the final conclusions, especially in comparative assertions, emphasising the need to perform a sensitivity analysis in the LCA interpretation step.

Phonological and articulation treatment approaches in Portuguese children with speech and language impairments: a randomized controlled intervention study

Background: In Portugal, the routine clinical practice of speech and language therapists (SLTs) in treating children with all types of speech sound disorder (SSD) continues to be articulation therapy (AT). There is limited use of phonological therapy (PT) or phonological awareness training in Portugal. Additionally, at an international level there is a focus on collecting information on and differentiating between the effectiveness of PT and AT for children with different types of phonologically based SSD, as well as on the role of phonological awareness in remediating SSD. It is important to collect more evidence for the most effective and efficient type of intervention approach for different SSDs and for these data to be collected from diverse linguistic and cultural perspectives. Aims: To evaluate the effectiveness of a PT and AT approach for treatment of 14 Portuguese children, aged 4.0–6.7 years, with a phonologically based SSD. Methods & Procedures: The children were randomly assigned to one of the two treatment approaches (seven children in each group). All children were treated by the same SLT, blind to the aims of the study, over three blocks of a total of 25 weekly sessions of intervention. Outcome measures of phonological ability (percentage of consonants correct (PCC), percentage occurrence of different phonological processes and phonetic inventory) were taken before and after intervention. A qualitative assessment of intervention effectiveness from the perspective of the parents of participants was included. Outcomes & Results: Both treatments were effective in improving the participants’ speech, with the children receiving PT showing a more significant improvement in PCC score than those receiving the AT. Children in the PT group also showed greater generalization to untreated words than those receiving AT. Parents reported both intervention approaches to be as effective in improving their children’s speech. Conclusions & Implications: The PT (combination of expressive phonological tasks, phonological awareness, listening and discrimination activities) proved to be an effective integrated method of improving phonological SSD in children. These findings provide some evidence for Portuguese SLTs to employ PT with children with phonologically based SSD

New Shop Floor Control Approaches for Virtual Enterprises

The virtual enterprise paradigm seems a fit response to face market instability and the volatile nature of business opportunities increasing enterprise’s interest in similar forms of networked organisations. The dynamic environment of a virtual enterprise requires that partners in the consortium own reconfigurable shop floors. This paper presents new approaches to shop floor control that meet the requirements of the new industrial paradigms and argues on work re-organization at shop floor level.

Incremental filter and wrapper approaches for feature discretization

Discrete data representations are necessary, or at least convenient, in many machine learning problems. While feature selection (FS) techniques aim at finding relevant subsets of features, the goal of feature discretization (FD) is to find concise (quantized) data representations, adequate for the learning task at hand. In this paper, we propose two incremental methods for FD. The first method belongs to the filter family, in which the quality of the discretization is assessed by a (supervised or unsupervised) relevance criterion. The second method is a wrapper, where discretized features are assessed using a classifier. Both methods can be coupled with any static (unsupervised or supervised) discretization procedure and can be used to perform FS as pre-processing or post-processing stages. The proposed methods attain efficient representations suitable for binary and multi-class problems with different types of data, being competitive with existing methods. Moreover, using well-known FS methods with the features discretized by our techniques leads to better accuracy than with the features discretized by other methods or with the original features. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Digital serious games and simulation games - comparison of two approaches to lean training

In an increasingly competitive and globalized world, companies need effective training methodologies and tools for their employees. However, selecting the most suitable ones is not an easy task. It depends on the requirements of the target group (namely time restrictions), on the specificities of the contents, etc. This is typically the case for training in Lean, the waste elimination manufacturing philosophy. This paper presents and compares two different approaches to lean training methodologies and tools: a simulation game based on a single realistic manufacturing platform, involving production and assembly operations that allows learning by playing; and a digital game that helps understand lean tools. This paper shows that both tools have advantages in terms of trainee motivation and knowledge acquisition. Furthermore, they can be used in a complementary way, reinforcing the acquired knowledge.