Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Multi-dimensional approach to bullying

RÉSUMÉ : Le bullying est un type de comportement agressif qu'un élève (ou plusieurs) fait subir à un autre et qui se manifeste par des agressions verbales, physiques et/ou psychologiques. Les caractéristiques du bullying sont la répétitivité d'actions négatives sur le long terme et une relation de pouvoir asymétrique. Pour la victime, ce type de comportement peut avoir des conséquences graves telles qu'échec scolaire, dépression, troubles alimentaires, ou idées suicidaires. De plus, les auteurs de bullying commettent plus de comportements déviants au sein de l'école ou à l'extérieur de cette dernière. La mise en place d'actions ciblées auprès des auteurs de bullying pourrait donc non seulement prévenir une victimisation, mais aussi réduire les actes de délinquance en général. Hormis quelques études locales ou cantonales, aucune recherche nationale auprès d'adolescents n'existait dans le domaine. Ce travail propose de combler cette lacune afin d'obtenir une compréhension suffisante du phénomène qui permet de donner des pistes pour définir des mesures de prévention appropriées. Afin d'appréhender la problématique du bullying dans les écoles secondaires suisses, deux sondages de délinquance juvénile autoreportée ont été effectués. Le premier a eu lieu entre 2003 et 2005 dans le canton de Vaud auprès de plus de 4500 écoliers. Le second a été administré en 2006 dans toute la Suisse et environ 3600 jeunes y ont participé. Les jeunes ont répondu au sondage soit en classe (questionnaire papier) soit en salle d'informatique (questionnaire en ligne). Les jeunes ayant répondu avoir sérieusement harcelé un autre élève est d'environ 7% dans le canton de Vaud et de 4% dans l'échantillon national. Les analyses statistiques ont permis tout d'abord de sélectionner les variables les plus fortement liées au bullying. Les résultats montrent que les jeunes avec un bas niveau d'autocontrôle et ayant une attitude positive envers la violence sont plus susceptibles de commettre des actes de bullying. L'importance des variables environnementales a aussi été démontrée: plus le jeune est supervisé et encadré par des adultes, plus les autorités (école, voisinage) jouent leur rôle de contrôle social en faisant respecter les règles et en intervenant de manière impartiale, moins le jeune risque de commettre des actes de bullying. De plus, l'utilisation d'analyses multiniveaux a permis de montrer l'existence d'effets de l'école sur le bullying. En particulier, le taux de bullying dans une école donnée augmente lorsque les avis des jeunes divergent par rapport à leur perception du climat scolaire. Un autre constat que l'on peut mettre en évidence est que la réaction des enseignants lors de bagarres a une influence différente sur le taux de bullying en fonction de l'établissement scolaire. ABSTRACT : Bullying is the intentional, repetitive or persistent hurting of one pupil by another (or several), where the relationship involves an imbalance of power. Bullying is a type of aggressive behaviour and the act can be verbal, physical and/or psychological. The consequences on the victims are serious: school failure, depressive symptomatology, eating disorders, or suicidal ideation. Moreover, the authors of bullying display more delinquent behaviour within or outside the school. Thus, preventive programmes targeting bullying could not only prevent victimisation, but also reduce delinquency in general. Very little data concerning bullying had been collected in Switzerland and, except some local or cantonal studies, no national research among teenagers existed in the field. This work intends to fill the gap in order to provide sufficient understanding of the phenomenon and to suggest some tracks for defining appropriate measures of prevention. In order to understand the problems of bullying in Swiss secondary schools better, two surveys of self-reported juvenile delinquency were carried out. The first one took place between 2003 and 2005 in the canton Vaud among more than 4500 pupils, the second in 2006 across Switzerland with about 3600 youths taking part. The pupils answered to the survey either in the classroom (paper questionnaire) or in the computer room (online questionnaire). The youths that answered having seriously bullied another pupil are about 7% in canton Vaud and 4% in the national sample. Statistical analyses have selected the variables most strongly related to bullying. The results show that the youths with a low level of self-control and adopting a positive attitude towards violence are more likely to bully others. The importance of the environmental variables was also shown: the more that youth is supervised and monitored by adults, and the more the authorities (school, neighbourhood) play their role of social control by making the rules be respected through intervening in an impartial way, the less the youth bully. Moreover, the use of multilevel analyses permitted to show the existence of effects of the school on bullying. In particular, the rate of bullying in a given school increases when there is a wide variation among students of the same school in their perception of their school climate. Another important aspect concerns teachers' reactions when pupils fight: this variable does not influence the bullying rate to the same extent, and depends on the school.

Stable isotope compositions of mammoth teeth from Niederweningen, Switzerland: Implications for the Late Pleistocene climate, environment, and diet

Oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of well-preserved mammoth teeth from the Middle Wurmian (40-70 ka) peat layer of Niederweningen, the most important mammoth site in Switzerland, were analysed to reconstruct Late Pleistocene palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental conditions. Drinking water (delta(18)O values of approximately -12.3 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand were calculated front oxygen isotope compositions of mammoth tooth enamel apatite using a species-specific calibration for modern elephants. These delta(18)O(H2O) values reflect the mean oxygen isotope composition of the palaeo-precipitation and are similar to those directly measured for fate Pleistocene groundwater from aquifers in northern Switzerland and southern Germany. Using a present-day delta(18)O(H2)o-precipitation-air temperature relation for Switzerland, a mean annual air temperature (MAT) of around 4.3 +/- 2.1 degrees C can be calculated for the Middle Wurmian at this site. This MAT is in good agreement with palaeotemperature estimates on the basis of Middle Wurmian groundwater recharge temperatures and beetle assemblages. Hence, the climatic conditions in this region were around 4 degrees C cooler during the Middle Wurmian interstadial phase, around 45-50ka BP, than they are today. During this period the mammoths from Niederweningen lived in an open tundra-like, C(3) plant-dominated environment as indicated by enamel (delta(13)C values of -11.5 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand and pollen and macroplant fossils found in the embedding peat. The low variability of enamel delta(13)C and delta(18)O values from different mammoth teeth reflects similar environmental conditions and supports a relatively small time frame for the fossil assemblage. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Entropy Production In Thermodynamic Climate Models

We present a non-equilibrium theory in a system with heat and radiative fluxes. The obtained expression for the entropy production is applied to a simple one-dimensional climate model based on the first law of thermodynamics. In the model, the dissipative fluxes are assumed to be independent variables, following the criteria of the Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics (BIT) that enlarges, in reference to the classical expression, the applicability of a macroscopic thermodynamic theory for systems far from equilibrium. We analyze the second differential of the classical and the generalized entropy as a criteria of stability of the steady states. Finally, the extreme state is obtained using variational techniques and observing that the system is close to the maximum dissipation rate

The second law of thermodynamics and the global climate system : A review of the maximum entropy production principle

The long-term mean properties of the global climate system and those of turbulent fluid systems are reviewed from a thermodynamic viewpoint. Two general expressions are derived for a rate of entropy production due to thermal and viscous dissipation (turbulent dissipation) in a fluid system. It is shown with these expressions that maximum entropy production in the Earth s climate system suggested by Paltridge, as well as maximum transport properties of heat or momentum in a turbulent system suggested by Malkus and Busse, correspond to a state in which the rate of entropy production due to the turbulent dissipation is at a maximum. Entropy production due to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized properties associated with turbulence. The hypothesis of maximum entropy production also seems to be applicable to the planetary atmospheres of Mars and Titan and perhaps to mantle convection. Lorenz s conjecture on maximum generation of available potential energy is shown to be akin to this hypothesis with a few minor approximations. A possible mechanism by which turbulent fluid systems adjust themselves to the states of maximum entropy production is presented as a selffeedback mechanism for the generation of available potential energy. These results tend to support the hypothesis of maximum entropy production that underlies a wide variety of nonlinear fluid systems, including our planet as well as other planets and stars

Second differential of the entropy as a criterion for the stability in low-dimensional climate models

The second differential of the entropy is used for analysing the stability of a thermodynamic climatic model. A delay time for the heat flux is introduced whereby it becomes an independent variable. Two different expressions for the second differential of the entropy are used: one follows classical irreversible thermodynamics theory; the second is related to the introduction of response time and is due to the extended irreversible thermodynamics theory. the second differential of the classical entropy leads to unstable solutions for high values of delay times. the extended expression always implies stable states for an ice-free earth. When the ice-albedo feedback is included, a discontinuous distribution of stable states is found for high response times. Following the thermodynamic analysis of the model, the maximum rates of entropy production at the steady state are obtained. A latitudinally isothermal earth produces the extremum in global entropy production. the material contribution to entropy production (by which we mean the production of entropy by material transport of heat) is a maximum when the latitudinal distribution of temperatures becomes less homogeneous than present values

Incremental Validity and Indirect effect of Ethical Development on Work Performance

We modeled work performance as outcomes of individual-differences mediated by technical performance. Beyond the "usual suspects" (e.g., general mental ability, and personality), we also measured the ethical development of participants (n = 460). We surmised that ethical development - which has not been extensively studied as a predictor of work performance while controlling for established predictors - captures unique variance in both technical and work performance. Results demonstrated incremental validity for ethical development in predicting technical performance, which in turn predicted work performance. The indirect effect of ethical development was significant too. Our results highlight the importance of process models of performance, which include proximal as well as distal individual differences.

Cardiac paraganglioma: diagnostic work up and review of the literature.

Paraganglioma of the heart are potentially invasive, highly vascularized tumors for which complete resection may be curative. Derived from the cardiac wall in most instances, resectability can be assessed after integration of the data provided by MRI in T2 sequence, and coronarography. A fully documented case of a large cardiac pheochromocytoma of the left atrium and AV groove is reported and the pertinent literature on the subject is here presented.

A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain

The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic press database on natural hazards and climate change in Catalonia (NE of Spain) and to analyze its potential application to social-impact studies. For this reason, a review of the concepts of risk, hazard, vulnerability and social perception is also included. This database has been built for the period 1982¿2007 and contains all the news related with those issues published by the oldest still-active newspaper in Catalonia. Some parameters are registered for each article and for each event, including criteria that enable us to determine the importance accorded to it by the newspaper, and a compilation of information about it. This ACCESS data base allows each article to be classified on the basis of the seven defined topics and key words, as well as summary information about the format and structuring of the new itself, the social impact of the event and data about the magnitude or intensity of the event. The coverage given to this type of news has been assessed because of its influence on construction of the social perception of natural risk and climate change, and as a potential source of information about them. The treatment accorded by the press to different risks is also considered. More than 14 000 press articles have been classified. Results show that the largest number of news items for the period 1982¿2007 relates to forest fires and droughts, followed by floods and heavy rainfalls, although floods are the major risk in the region of study. Two flood events recorded in 2002 have been analyzed in order to show an example of the role of the press information as indicator of risk perception.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.