Predation drives interpopulation differences in parental care expression.

Expressing parental care after oviposition or parturition is usually an obligate (evolved) trait within a species, despite evolutionary theory predicting that widespread species should vary in whether or not they express parental care according to local selection pressures. The lizard Eutropis longicaudata expresses maternal care only in a single population throughout its large geographical range, but why this pattern occurs is unknown. We used reciprocal translocation and predator exclusion experiments to test whether this intraspecific variation is a fixed trait within populations and whether predator abundance explains this perplexing pattern. Wild-caught female lizards that were reciprocally translocated consistently guarded or abandoned eggs in line with their population of origin. By contrast, most lizards raised in a common garden environment and subsequently released as adults adopted the maternal care strategy of the recipient population, even when the parents originated from a population lacking maternal care. Egg predation represents a significant fitness cost in the populations where females display egg-guarding behaviour, but guarding eggs outweighs this potential cost by increasing hatching success. These results imply that predators can be a driving force in the expression of parental care in instances where it is normally absent and that local selection pressure is sufficient to cause behavioural divergence in whether or not parental care is expressed.

Structural variation-associated expression changes are paralleled by chromatin architecture modifications.

Copy number variants (CNVs) influence the expression of genes that map not only within the rearrangement, but also to its flanks. To assess the possible mechanism(s) underlying this "neighboring effect", we compared intrachromosomal interactions and histone modifications in cell lines of patients affected by genomic disorders and control individuals. Using chromosome conformation capture (4C-seq), we observed that a set of genes flanking the Williams-Beuren Syndrome critical region (WBSCR) were often looping together. The newly identified interacting genes include AUTS2, mutations of which are associated with autism and intellectual disabilities. Deletion of the WBSCR disrupts the expression of this group of flanking genes, as well as long-range interactions between them and the rearranged interval. We also pinpointed concomitant changes in histone modifications between samples. We conclude that large genomic rearrangements can lead to chromatin conformation changes that extend far away from the structural variant, thereby possibly modulating expression globally and modifying the phenotype. GEO SERIES ACCESSION NUMBER: GSE33784, GSE33867.

The genetical theory of social behaviour.

We survey the population genetic basis of social evolution, using a logically consistent set of arguments to cover a wide range of biological scenarios. We start by reconsidering Hamilton's (Hamilton 1964 J. Theoret. Biol. 7, 1-16 (doi:10.1016/0022-5193(64)90038-4)) results for selection on a social trait under the assumptions of additive gene action, weak selection and constant environment and demography. This yields a prediction for the direction of allele frequency change in terms of phenotypic costs and benefits and genealogical concepts of relatedness, which holds for any frequency of the trait in the population, and provides the foundation for further developments and extensions. We then allow for any type of gene interaction within and between individuals, strong selection and fluctuating environments and demography, which may depend on the evolving trait itself. We reach three conclusions pertaining to selection on social behaviours under broad conditions. (i) Selection can be understood by focusing on a one-generation change in mean allele frequency, a computation which underpins the utility of reproductive value weights; (ii) in large populations under the assumptions of additive gene action and weak selection, this change is of constant sign for any allele frequency and is predicted by a phenotypic selection gradient; (iii) under the assumptions of trait substitution sequences, such phenotypic selection gradients suffice to characterize long-term multi-dimensional stochastic evolution, with almost no knowledge about the genetic details underlying the coevolving traits. Having such simple results about the effect of selection regardless of population structure and type of social interactions can help to delineate the common features of distinct biological processes. Finally, we clarify some persistent divergences within social evolution theory, with respect to exactness, synergies, maximization, dynamic sufficiency and the role of genetic arguments.

Revising the Cannabis Use Disorders Identification Test (CUDIT) by means of Item Response Theory.

Cannabis use among adolescents and young adults has become a major public health challenge. Several European countries are currently developing short screening instruments to identify 'problematic' forms of cannabis use in general population surveys. One such instrument is the Cannabis Use Disorders Identification Test (CUDIT), a 10-item questionnaire based on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. Previous research found that some CUDIT items did not perform well psychometrically. In the interests of improving the psychometric properties of the CUDIT, this study replaces the poorly performing items with new items that specifically address cannabis use. Analyses are based on a sub-sample of 558 recent cannabis users from a representative population sample of 5722 individuals (aged 13-32) who were surveyed in the 2007 Swiss Cannabis Monitoring Study. Four new items were added to the original CUDIT. Psychometric properties of all 14 items, as well as the dimensionality of the supplemented CUDIT were then examined using Item Response Theory. Results indicate the unidimensionality of CUDIT and an improvement in its psychometric performance when three original items (usual hours being stoned; injuries; guilt) are replaced by new ones (motives for using cannabis; missing out leisure time activities; difficulties at work/school). However, improvements were limited to cannabis users with a high problem score. For epidemiological purposes, any further revision of CUDIT should therefore include a greater number of 'easier' items.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

Toward a theory of labor market institutions

Standard economic analysis holds that labor market rigidities are harmfulfor job creation and typically increase unemployment. But many orthodoxreforms of the labor market have proved difficult to implement because ofpolitical opposition. For these reasons it is important to explain why weobserve such regulations. In this paper I outline a theory of how they may arise and why they fit together. This theory is fully developed in aforthcoming book (Saint-Paul (2000)), to which the reader is referred forfurther details.

Capital, wages and growth: Theory and evidence

Returns to scale to capital and the strength of capital externalities play a key role for the empirical predictions and policy implications of different growth theories. We show that both can be identified with individual wage data and implement our approach at the city-level using US Census data on individuals in 173 cities for 1970, 1980, and 1990. Estimation takes into account fixed effects, endogeneity of capital accumulation, and measurement error. We find no evidence for human or physical capital externalities and decreasing aggregate returns to capital. Returns to scale to physical and human capital are around 80 percent. We also find strong complementarities between human capital and labor and substantial total employment externalities.

How accurate is the current picture of human genetic variation?

Our understanding of the distribution of worldwide human genomic diversity has greatly increased over recent years thanks to the availability of large data sets derived from short tandem repeats (STRs), insertion deletion polymorphisms (indels) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A concern, however, is that the current picture of worldwide human genomic diversity may be inaccurate because of biases in the selection process of genetic markers (so-called 'ascertainment bias'). To evaluate this problem, we first compared the distribution of genomic diversity between these three types of genetic markers in the populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel for evidence of bias or incongruities. In a second step, using a very relaxed set of criteria to prevent the intrusion of bias, we developed a new set of unbiased STR markers and compared the results against those from available panels. Contrarily to recent claims, our results show that the STR markers suffer from no discernible bias, and can thus be used as a baseline reference for human genetic diversity and population differentiation. The bias on SNPs is moderate compared to that on the set of indels analysed, which we recommend should be avoided for work describing the distribution of human genetic diversity or making inference on human settlement history.

The implicit theory of historical change in the work of Alan S. Milward

Alan S. Milward was an economic historian who developed an implicit theory ofhistorical change. His interpretation which was neither liberal nor Marxist positedthat social, political, and economic change, for it to be sustainable, had to be agradual process rather than one resulting from a sudden, cataclysmicrevolutionary event occurring in one sector of the economy or society. Benignchange depended much less on natural resource endowment or technologicaldevelopments than on the ability of state institutions to respond to changingpolitical demands from within each society. State bureaucracies were fundamentalto formulating those political demands and advising politicians of ways to meetthem. Since each society was different there was no single model of developmentto be adopted or which could be imposed successfully by one nation-state onothers, either through force or through foreign aid programs. Nor coulddevelopment be promoted simply by copying the model of a more successfuleconomy. Each nation-state had to find its own response to the political demandsarising from within its society. Integration occurred when a number of nation states shared similar political objectives which they could not meet individuallybut could meet collectively. It was not simply the result of their increasinginterdependence. It was how and whether nation-states responded to thesedomestic demands which determined the nature of historical change.

Evolution of intraspecific variation : a comparative phylogenetic approach

Understanding the evolution of intraspecific variance is a major research question in evolutionary biology. While its importance to processes operating at individual and population levels is well-documented, much less is known about its role in macroevolutionary patterns. Nevertheless, both experimental and theoretical evidence suggest that the intraspecific variance is susceptible to selection, can transform into interspecific variation and, therefore, is crucial for macroevolutionary processes. The main objectives of this thesis were: (l) to investigate which factors impact evolution of intraspecific variation in Polygonaceae and determine if evolution of intraspecific variation influences species diversification; and (2) to develop a novel comparative phylogenetic method to model evolution of intraspecific variation. Using the buckwheat family, Polygonaceae, as a study system, I demonstrated which life-history and ecological traits are relevant to the evolution of intraspecific variation. I analyzed how differential intraspecific variation drives species diversification patterns. I showed with computer simulations the shortcomings of existing comparative methods with respect to intraspecific variation. I developed a novel comparative model that readily incorporates the intraspecific variance into phylogenetic comparative methods. The obtained results are complimentary, because they affect both empirical and methodological aspects of comparative analysis. Overall, I highlight that intraspecific variation is an important contributor to the macroevolutionary patterns and it should be explicitly considered in the comparative phylogenetic analysis. - En biologie évolutive comprendre l'évolution de la variance intraspécifique est un axe de recherche majeur. Bien que l'importance de cette variation soit bien documentée au niveau individuel et populationnel, on en sait beaucoup moins sur son rôle au niveau macroévolutif. Néanmoins, des preuves expérimentales et théoriques suggèrent que la variance intraspécifique est sensible à la sélection et peut se transformer en variation interspécifique. Par conséquent, elle est cruciale pour mieux comprendre les processus macroévolutifs. Les principaux objectifs de ma thèse étaient : (i) d'enquêter sur les facteurs qui affectent l'évolution de la variation intraspécifique chez les Polygonaceae et de déterminer si l'évolution de cette dernière influence la diversification des espèces, et (2) de développer une nouvelle méthode comparative permettant de modéliser l'évolution de la variation intraspécifique dans un cadre phylogénétique. En utilisant comme système d'étude la famille du sarrasin, les Polygonacées, je démontre que les traits d'histoire de vie sont pertinents pour comprendre l'évolution de la variation intraspécifique. J'ai également analysé l'influence de la variation intraspécifique au niveau de la diversification des espèces. J'ai ensuite démontré avec des données simulées les limites des méthodes comparatives existantes vis à vis de la variation intraspécifique. Finalement, j'ai développé un modèle comparatif qui intègre facilement la variance intraspécifique dans les méthodes comparatives phylogénétiques existantes. Les résultats obtenus lors de ma thèse sont complémentaires car ils abordent aspects empiriques et méthodologiques de l'analyse comparative. En conclusion, je souligne que la variation intraspécifique est un facteur important en macroévolution et qu'elle doit être explicitement considérée lors d'analyses comparatives phylogénétiques.

Isotopic variation across the Audubon's-myrtle warbler hybrid zone.

Differences in seasonal migratory behaviours are thought to be an important component of reproductive isolation in many organisms. Stable isotopes have been used with success in estimating the location and qualities of disjunct breeding and wintering areas. However, few studies have used isotopic data to estimate the movements of hybrid offspring in species that form hybrid zones. Here, we use stable hydrogen to estimate the wintering locations and migratory patterns of two common and widespread migratory birds, Audubon's (Setophaga auduboni) and myrtle (S. coronata) warblers, as well as their hybrids. These two species form a narrow hybrid zone with extensive interbreeding in the Rocky Mountains of British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, which has been studied for over four decades. Isotopes in feathers grown on the wintering grounds or early on migration reveal three important patterns: (1) Audubon's and myrtle warblers from allopatric breeding populations winter in isotopically different environments, consistent with band recovery data and suggesting that there is a narrow migratory transition between the two species, (2) most hybrids appear to overwinter in the south-eastern USA, similar to where myrtle warblers are known to winter, and (3) some hybrid individuals, particularly those along the western edge of the hybrid zone, show Audubon's-like isotopic patterns. These data suggest there is a migratory divide between these two species, but that it is not directly coincident with the centre of the hybrid zone in the breeding range. We interpret these findings and discuss them within the context of previous research on hybrid zones, speciation and migratory divides.

A comment on the Nash program and the theory of implementation

The mechanisms in the Nash program for cooperative games are madecompatible with the framework of the theory of implementation. This is donethrough a reinterpretation of the characteristic function that avoids feasibilityproblems, thereby allowing an analysis that focuses exclusively on the payoff space. In this framework, we show that the core is the only majorcooperative solution that is Maskin monotonic. Thus, implementation of mostcooperative solutions must rely on refinements of the Nash equilibrium concept(like most papers in the Nash program do). Finally, the mechanisms in theNash program are adapted into the model.

Business cycle measurement with some theory

A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specificationof the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use someto identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. Theapproach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. Themethod is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers)in a standard class of models.