Atlas of cancer mortality in the United Arab Emirates aided by application of geographic information system methods

The aim of this study was to determine cancer mortality rates for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and to create an atlas of cancer mortality for the UAE. This atlas is the first of its kind in the Gulf country and the Middle East. Death certificates were reviewed for a period from January 1, 1990 to December 31, 1999 and cancer deaths were identified. Cancer mortality cases were verified by comparing with medical records. Age-adjusted cancer mortality rates were calculated by gender, emirate/medical district and nationality (UAE nationals and overall UAE population). Individual rates for each emirate were compared to the overall rate of the corresponding population for the same cancer site and gender. Age-adjusted rates were mapped using MapInfo software. High rates for liver, lung and stomach cancer were observed in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and the northern emirates, respectively. Rates for UAE nationals were greater compared to the overall UAE population. Several factors were suggested that may account for high rates of specific cancers observed in certain emirates. It is hoped that this atlas will provide leads that will guide further epidemiologic and public health activities aimed at preventing cancer. ^

Intrinsic characteristics of the proton pump in the luminal membrane of a tight urinary epithelium. The relation between transport rate and delta mu H.

A number of tight urinary epithelia, as exemplified by the turtle bladder, acidify the luminal solution by active transport of H+ across the luminal cell membrane. The rate of active H+ transport (JH) decreases as the electrochemical potential difference for H+ [delta mu H = mu H(lumen) - mu H(serosa)] across the epithelium is increased. The luminal cell membrane has a low permeability for H+ equivalents and a high electrical resistance compared with the basolateral cell membrane. Changes in JH thus reflect changes in active H+ transport across the luminal membrane. To examine the control of JH by delta mu H in the turtle bladder, transepithelial electrical potential differences (delta psi) were imposed at constant acid-base conditions or the luminal pH was varied at delta psi = 0 and constant serosal PCO2 and pH. When the luminal compartment was acidified from pH 7 to 4 or was made electrically positive, JH decreased as a linear function of delta mu H as previously described. When the luminal compartment was made alkaline from pH 7 to 9 or was made electrically negative, JH reached a maximal value, which was the same whether the delta mu H was imposed as a delta pH or a delta psi. The nonlinear JH vs. delta mu H relation does not result from changes in the number of pumps in the luminal membrane or from changes in the intracellular pH, but is a characteristic of the H+ pumps themselves. We propose a general scheme, which, because of its structural features, can account for the nonlinearity of the JH vs. delta mu H relations and, more specifically, for the kinetic equivalence of the effects of the chemical and electrical components of delta mu H. According to this model, the pump complex consists of two components: a catalytic unit at the cytoplasmic side of the luminal membrane, which mediates the ATP-driven H+ translocation, and a transmembrane channel, which mediates the transfer of H+ from the catalytic unit to the luminal solution. These two components may be linked through a buffer compartment for H+ (an antechamber).

Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence

The effects of exchange rate risk have interested researchers, since the collapse of fixed exchange rates. Little consensus exists, however, regarding its effect on exports. Previous studies implicitly assume symmetry. This paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH(1,1)-M model. The asymmetry means that exchange rate risk (volatility) affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations of the exchange rate. The data include bilateral exports from eight Asian countries to the US. The empirical results show that real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries, negative or positive, in periods of depreciation or appreciation. For five of the eight countries, the effects of exchange risk are asymmetric. Thus, policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of stimulating export growth.

Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?

Exchange rate movements affect exports in two ways -- its depreciation and its variability (risk). A depreciation raises exports, but the associated exchange rate risk could offset that positive effect. The present paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation encourages exports, as expected, for most countries, but its contribution to export growth is weak. Exchange rate risk contributes to export growth in Malaysia and the Philippines, leading to positive net effects. Exchange rate risk generates a negative effect for six of the countries, resulting in a negative net effect in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and a zero net effect in Korea and Thailand. Since the negative effect of exchange rate risk may offset, or even dominate, positive contributions from depreciation, policy makers need to reduce exchange rate fluctuation along with and possibly before efforts to depreciate the currency.

Fundamental Determinants of Mexico's Exchange-Rate Crisis of 1994

No abstract available.

The Economic Case for Fiscal Federalism in Scotland

In this paper we consider the case for assigning tax revenues to Scotland, by which we mean that taxes levied on Scottish tax bases should be returned to the Scottish budget. The budget, however, would continue to be supplemented by transfers from the Westminster budget. This arrangement differs from the current situation whereby public spending is largely financed by a bloc grant from Westminster. Our suggestion falls short of full fiscal federalism for Scotland . meaning that Scotland had control over choice of tax base and of tax rates, and fiscal transfers from Westminster would be minimal. We use propositions drawn from the theory of fiscal federalism to argue for a smaller vertical imbalance between taxes retained in Scotland and public spending in Scotland. A closer matching of spending with taxes would better signal to beneficiaries the true costs of public spending in terms of taxes raised. It would also create more complete incentives for politicians to provide public goods and services in quantities and at qualities that voters are actually willing to pay for. Under the current bloc grant system, the marginal tax cost of spending does not enter into political agents. calculations as spending is out of a fixed total budget. Moreover, the Scottish electorate is hindered in signaling its desire for local public goods and services since the size of the total budget is determined by a rigid formula set by Westminster. At the present time we reject proposals for full fiscal federalism because in sharply reducing vertical imbalance in the Scottish budget, it is likely to worsen horizontal balance between Scotland and the other UK regions. Horizontal balance occurs where similarly situated regions enjoy the same per capita level of public goods and services at the same per capita tax cost. The complete removal of the bloc grant under full fiscal federalism would remove the mechanism that currently promotes horizontal equity in the UK. Variability in own-source tax revenues creates other problems with full fiscal federalism. Taxes derived from North Sea oil would constitute a large proportion of Scottish taxes, but these are known to be volatile in the face of variable oil prices and the pound-dollar exchange rate. At the present time variability in oil tax revenue is absorbed by Westminster. Scotland is insulated through the bloc grant. This risk sharing mechanism would be lost with full fiscal federalism. It is true that Scotland could turn to financial markets to tide itself over oil tax revenue downturns, but as a much smaller and less diversified financial entity than the UK as a whole it would probably have to borrow on less favorable terms than can Westminster. Scotland would have to bear this extra cost itself. Also, with full fiscal federalism it is difficult to see how the Scottish budget could be used as a macroeconomic stabilizer. At present, tax revenue downturns in Scotland - together with the steady bloc grant - are absorbed through an increase in vertical imbalance. This acts as an automatic stabilizer for the Scottish economy. No such mechanism would exist under full fiscal federalism. The borrowing alternative would still exist but on the less favorable terms - as with borrowing to finance oil tax shortfalls.

Automatic Stabilizer Feature of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

This paper shows that countries characterized by a financial accelerator mechanism may reverse the usual finding of the literature -- flexible exchange rate regimes do a worse job of insulating open economies from external shocks. I obtain this result with a calibrated small open economy model that endogenizes foreign interest rates by linking them to the banking sector's foreign currency leverage. This relationship renders exchange rate policy more important compared to the usual exogeneity assumption. I find empirical support for this prediction using the Local Projections method. Finally, 2nd order approximation to the model finds larger welfare losses under flexible regimes.

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Overshooting, and Endogenous Physical Capital

We develop an open economy macroeconomic model with real capital accumulation and microeconomic foundations. We show that expansionary monetary policy causes exchange rate overshooting, not once, but potentially twice; the secondary repercussion comes through the reaction of firms to changed asset prices and the firms' decisions to invest in real capital. The model sheds further light on the volatility of real and nominal exchange rates, and it suggests that changes in corporate sector profitability may affect exchange rates through international portfolio diversification in corporate securities.

Exchange rate depreciation and exports: The case of Singapore revisited

This paper revisits the weak relationship between exchange rate depreciation and exports for Singapore, using a bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time-varying risk. The evidence shows that depreciation does not significantly improve exports, but that exchange rate risk significantly impedes exports. In sum, Singaporean policy makers can better promote export growth by stabilizing the exchange rate rather than generating its depreciation.

The Real Exchange Rate in Small Open Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

We examine the effects of the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differential on the real exchange rate in a sample of small open developed economies. We employ cointegration analysis to search for possible long-term linkages. We find that while both the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differentials affect the real exchange rate in the long run, the role of the terms of trade generally proves more consistent across countries. The speed of adjustment for the expected real interest rate differential in the error-correction model, however, is quantitatively larger than it is for the terms of trade.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Multisectorial Economies

We develop a two-sector economy where each sector is classified as classical/Keynesian (contract/noncontract) in the labor market and traded/nontraded in the product market. We consider the effects of changes in monetary and exchange rate policy on sectoral and aggregate prices and outputs for different sectoral characterizations. Duca (1987) shows that nominal wage rigidity facilitates the effectiveness of monetary policy even in the classical sector. We demonstrate that trade price rigidity provides a similar path for the effectiveness of monetary policy, in this case, even when both sectors are classical.

Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure

Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market participation. Our results show that foreign exchange exposure is negatively related to derivatives market participation, and support the hedging explanation of the exchange rate exposure puzzle. This decline is especially salient in the financial sector, for bigger firms, and over longer time periods. Results are robust to using different exchange rates, a GARCH-SVAR approach to measure exchange rate exposure, and different return horizons.

Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability: Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist?

Using quantile regressions and cross-sectional data from 152 countries, we examine the relationship between inflation and its variability. We consider two measures of inflation - the mean and median - and three different measures of inflation variability - the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and median deviation. Using the mean and standard deviation or the median and the median deviation, the results support both the hypothesis that higher inflation creates more inflation variability and that inflation variability raises inflation across quantiles. Moreover, higher quantiles in both cases lead to larger marginal effects of inflation (inflation variability) on inflation variability (inflation). Using the mean and the coefficient of variation, however, the findings largely support no correlation between inflation and its variability. Finally, we also consider whether thresholds for inflation rate or inflation variability exist before finding such positive correlations. We find evidence of thresholds for inflation rates below 3 percent, but mixed results for thresholds for inflation variability.

A Bayesian analysis for spatial processes with application to mapping

In geographical epidemiology, maps of disease rates and disease risk provide a spatial perspective for researching disease etiology. For rare diseases or when the population base is small, the rate and risk estimates may be unstable. Empirical Bayesian (EB) methods have been used to spatially smooth the estimates by permitting an area estimate to "borrow strength" from its neighbors. Such EB methods include the use of a Gamma model, of a James-Stein estimator, and of a conditional autoregressive (CAR) process. A fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process is proposed. One advantage of this fully Bayesian analysis is that it can be implemented simply by using repeated sampling from the posterior densities. Use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique such as Gibbs sampler was not necessary. Direct resampling from the posterior densities provides exact small sample inferences instead of the approximate asymptotic analyses of maximum likelihood methods (Clayton & Kaldor, 1987). Further, the proposed CAR model provides for covariates to be included in the model. A simulation demonstrates the effect of sample size on the fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process. The methods are applied to lip cancer data from Scotland, and the results are compared. ^

A practice-based culminating experience: Writing a HRSA grant application with Texas Organ Sharing Alliance for public education efforts to increase solid organ donation

In November 2010, nearly 110,000 people in the United States were waiting for organs for transplantation. Despite the fact that the organ donor registration rate has doubled in the last year, Texas has the lowest registration rate in the nation. Due to the need for improved registration rates in Texas, this practice-based culminating experience was to write an application for federal funding for the central Texas organ procurement organization, Texas Organ Sharing Alliance. The culminating experience has two levels of significance for public health – (1) to engage in an activity to promote organ donation registration, and (2) to provide professional experience in grant writing. ^ The process began with a literature review. The review was to identify successful intervention activities in motivating organ donation registration that could be used in intervention design for the grant application. Conclusions derived from the literature review included (1) the need to specifically encourage family discussions, (2) religious and community leaders can be leveraged to facilitate organ donation conversations in families, (3) communication content must be culturally sensitive and (4) ethnic disparities in transplantation must be acknowledged and discussed.^ Post the literature review; the experience followed a five step process of developing the grant application. The steps included securing permission to proceed, assembling a project team, creation of a project plan and timeline, writing each element of the grant application including the design of proposed intervention activities, and completion of the federal grant application. ^ After the grant application was written, an evaluation of the grant writing process was conducted. Opportunities for improvement were identified. The first opportunity was the need for better timeline management to allow for review of the application by an independent party, iterative development of the budget proposal, and development of collaborative partnerships. Another improvement opportunity was the management of conflict regarding the design of the intervention that stemmed from marketing versus evidence-based approaches. The most important improvement opportunity was the need to develop a more exhaustive evaluation plan.^ Eight supplementary files are attached to appendices: Feasibility Discussion in Appendix 1, Grant Guidance and Workshop Notes in Appendix 2, Presentation to Texas Organ Sharing Alliance in Appendix 3, Team Recruitment Presentation in Appendix 5, Grant Project Narrative in Appendix 7, Federal Application Form in Appendix 8, and Budget Workbook with Budget Narrative in Appendix 9.^