On the Advancement of Probabilistic Models of Decompression Sickness

The work presented in this dissertation is focused on applying engineering methods to develop and explore probabilistic survival models for the prediction of decompression sickness in US NAVY divers. Mathematical modeling, computational model development, and numerical optimization techniques were employed to formulate and evaluate the predictive quality of models fitted to empirical data. In Chapters 1 and 2 we present general background information relevant to the development of probabilistic models applied to predicting the incidence of decompression sickness. The remainder of the dissertation introduces techniques developed in an effort to improve the predictive quality of probabilistic decompression models and to reduce the difficulty of model parameter optimization.

The first project explored seventeen variations of the hazard function using a well-perfused parallel compartment model. Models were parametrically optimized using the maximum likelihood technique. Model performance was evaluated using both classical statistical methods and model selection techniques based on information theory. Optimized model parameters were overall similar to those of previously published Results indicated that a novel hazard function definition that included both ambient pressure scaling and individually fitted compartment exponent scaling terms.

We developed ten pharmacokinetic compartmental models that included explicit delay mechanics to determine if predictive quality could be improved through the inclusion of material transfer lags. A fitted discrete delay parameter augmented the inflow to the compartment systems from the environment. Based on the observation that symptoms are often reported after risk accumulation begins for many of our models, we hypothesized that the inclusion of delays might improve correlation between the model predictions and observed data. Model selection techniques identified two models as having the best overall performance, but comparison to the best performing model without delay and model selection using our best identified no delay pharmacokinetic model both indicated that the delay mechanism was not statistically justified and did not substantially improve model predictions.

Our final investigation explored parameter bounding techniques to identify parameter regions for which statistical model failure will not occur. When a model predicts a no probability of a diver experiencing decompression sickness for an exposure that is known to produce symptoms, statistical model failure occurs. Using a metric related to the instantaneous risk, we successfully identify regions where model failure will not occur and identify the boundaries of the region using a root bounding technique. Several models are used to demonstrate the techniques, which may be employed to reduce the difficulty of model optimization for future investigations.

Paradigms that guide the models of attention to the health in Brazil: an analytic essay

SILVA, Flávio César Bezerra da ; COSTA, Francisca Marta de Lima; ANDRADE, Hamilton Leandro Pinto de; FREIRE, Lúcia de Fátima; MACIEL, Patrícia Suerda de Oliveira; ENDERS, Bertha Cruz ; MENEZES, Rejane Maria Paiva de. Paradigms that guide the models of attention to the health in Brazil: an analytic essay. Revista de Enfermagem UFPE On Line., Recife, v.3,n.4, p.460-65. out/dez. 2009. Disponível em < http://www.ufpe.br/revistaenfermagem/index.php/revista/search/results >.

Models of the user: designers’ perspectives on influencing sustainable behaviour

Influencing more environmentally friendly and sustainable behaviour is a current focus of many projects, ranging from government social marketing campaigns, education and tax structures to designers’ work on interactive products, services and environments. There is a wide variety of techniques and methods used, intended to work via different sets of cognitive and environmental principles. These approaches make different assumptions about ‘what people are like’: how users will respond to behavioural interventions, and why, and in the process reveal some of the assumptions that designers and other stakeholders, such as clients commissioning a project, make about human nature. This paper discusses three simple models of user behaviour – the pinball, the shortcut and the thoughtful – which emerge from user experience designers’ statements about users while focused on designing for behaviour change. The models are characterised using systems terminology and the application of each model to design for sustainable behaviour is examined via a series of examples.

Three dimensional models of water flow in the Persian Gulf

Persian Gulf region is globally of great importance due to its economical and political reasons. The importance lies in oil sources and sea exports. Geophysical phenomena dominated in the water circulation affected this region is called Monsoon it stretches from African coasts to the half way of Red Seal affected all coasts of Persian Gulf and goes toward east to the Indian ocean. Other essential factors in the water circulation in this region are net evaporation (several meters in per year), high density and high salinity. In this article the effects of wind stress and evaporation in the water circulation in the region will be considered and model equations for wind forces, density, pressure, gradient, and bottom friction for Persian Gulf will be discussed.

Paradigms that guide the models of attention to the health in Brazil: an analytic essay

SILVA, Flávio César Bezerra da ; COSTA, Francisca Marta de Lima; ANDRADE, Hamilton Leandro Pinto de; FREIRE, Lúcia de Fátima; MACIEL, Patrícia Suerda de Oliveira; ENDERS, Bertha Cruz ; MENEZES, Rejane Maria Paiva de. Paradigms that guide the models of attention to the health in Brazil: an analytic essay. Revista de Enfermagem UFPE On Line., Recife, v.3,n.4, p.460-65. out/dez. 2009. Disponível em < http://www.ufpe.br/revistaenfermagem/index.php/revista/search/results >.

Random path sampling applied to vector models of magnetism

The recently reported Monte Carlo Random Path Sampling method (RPS) is here improved and its application is expanded to the study of the 2D and 3D Ising and discrete Heisenberg models. The methodology was implemented to allow use in both CPU-based high-performance computing infrastructures (C/MPI) and GPU-based (CUDA) parallel computation, with significant computational performance gains. Convergence is discussed, both in terms of free energy and magnetization dependence on field/temperature. From the calculated magnetization-energy joint density of states, fast calculations of field and temperature dependent thermodynamic properties are performed, including the effects of anisotropy on coercivity, and the magnetocaloric effect. The emergence of first-order magneto-volume transitions in the compressible Ising model is interpreted using the Landau theory of phase transitions. Using metallic Gadolinium as a real-world example, the possibility of using RPS as a tool for computational magnetic materials design is discussed. Experimental magnetic and structural properties of a Gadolinium single crystal are compared to RPS-based calculations using microscopic parameters obtained from Density Functional Theory.

An algorithm for the inclusion of RC compact models of packages into board level thermal simulation tools

International audience

Mouse models of diet-induced nonalcoholic steatohepatitis reproduce the heterogeneity of the human disease

International audience

An introduction to mathematical models of coagulation-fragmentation processes: a discrete deterministic mean-field approach

We summarise the properties and the fundamental mathematical results associated with basic models which describe coagulation and fragmentation processes in a deterministic manner and in which cluster size is a discrete quantity (an integer multiple of some basic unit size). In particular, we discuss Smoluchowski's equation for aggregation, the Becker-Döring model of simultaneous aggregation and fragmentation, and more general models involving coagulation and fragmentation.

Animal Models of Friedreich Ataxia

Friedreich ataxia (FRDA) is the most common form of autosomal-recessive ataxia. Common nonmotor features include cardiomyopathy and diabetes mellitus. At present, no effective treatments are available to prevent disease progression. Age of onset varies from infancy to adulthood. In the majority of patients, FRDA is caused by intronic GAA expansions in FXN, which encodes a highly-conserved small mitochondrial matrix protein, frataxin. A mouse model of FRDA has been difficult to generate because complete loss of frataxin causes early embryonic lethality. Although there are some controversies about the function of frataxin, recent biochemical and structural studies have confirmed that it is a component of the multiprotein complex that assembles iron-sulfur clusters in the mitochondrial matrix. The main consequences of frataxin deficiency are energy deficit, altered iron metabolism, and oxidative damage.

Reduced models of chemical reaction in chaotic flows

We describe and evaluate two reduced models for nonlinear chemical reactions in a chaotic laminar flow. Each model involves two separate steps to compute the chemical composition at a given location and time. The “manifold tracking model” first tracks backwards in time a segment of the stable manifold of the requisite point. This then provides a sample of the initial conditions appropriate for the second step, which requires solving one-dimensional problems for the reaction in Lagrangian coordinates. By contrast, the first step of the “branching trajectories model” simulates both the advection and diffusion of fluid particles that terminate at the appropriate point; the chemical reaction equations are then solved along each of the branched trajectories in a second step. Results from each model are compared with full numerical simulations of the reaction processes in a chaotic laminar flow.

Can we use niche models of indicator species to predict the distribution of endangered communities?

European-wide conservation policies are based on the identification of priority habitats. However, research on conservation biogeography often relies on the results and projections of species distribution models to assess species' vulnerability to global change. We assess whether the distribution and structure of threatened communities can be predicted by the suitability of the environmental conditions for their indicator species. We present some preliminary results elucidating if using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict these endangered communities. Dune plant assemblages, affected by severe conditions, are excellent models for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We use data from an extensive survey of xerophytic inland sand dune scrub communities from Portugal, one of the most threatened habitat types of Europe. We identify indicator shrub species of different types of communities, model their geographical response to the environment, and evaluate whether the output of these niche models are able to predict the distribution of each type of community in a different region.

Use of Coarse-resolution models of species' distributions to guide local conservation inferences

Distribution models are used increasingly for species conservation assessments over extensive areas, but the spatial resolution of the modeled data and, consequently, of the predictions generated directly from these models are usually too coarse for local conservation applications. Comprehensive distribution data at finer spatial resolution, however, require a level of sampling that is impractical for most species and regions. Models can be downscaled to predict distribution at finer resolutions, but this increases uncertainty because the predictive ability of models is not necessarily consistent beyond their original scale. We analyzed the performance of downscaled, previously published models of environmental favorability (a generalized linear modeling technique) for a restricted endemic insectivore, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), and a more widespread carnivore, the Eurasian otter ( Lutra lutra), in the Iberian Peninsula. The models, built from presence–absence data at 10 × 10 km resolution, were extrapolated to a resolution 100 times finer (1 × 1 km). We compared downscaled predictions of environmental quality for the two species with published data on local observations and on important conservation sites proposed by experts. Predictions were significantly related to observed presence or absence of species and to expert selection of sampling sites and important conservation sites. Our results suggest the potential usefulness of downscaled projections of environmental quality as a proxy for expensive and time-consuming field studies when the field studies are not feasible. This method may be valid for other similar species if coarse-resolution distribution data are available to define high-quality areas at a scale that is practical for the application of concrete conservation measures