Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Combustion and Thermal Decomposition of Ammonium Perchlorate-Aluminium Composite Pellets: Mechanism for Aluminium Participation

Thermal behaviour of ammonium perchlorate-aluminium composites is studied using differential thermal analysis, thermogravimetry and differential scanning calorimetry. Electrical resistivity studies throw light on the mechanism of ammonium perchlorate decomposition at different aluminium contents. The differences observed in burning behaviour by earlier authors is explained in terms of porosity and thermal conductivity of the composite.

Thermal reactivity of metal oxalate hydrazinates

Metal oxalate hydrazinates MC2O4·2 N2H4 where M=Mg, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn and Cd have been prepared and characterised by chemical analysis and infrared spectra. Thermal reactivity and decomposition of these oxalato complexes have been studied using thermogravimetry and differential thermal analysis. Hydrazinates of Mn, Fe, Co, Ni and Cu oxalates exhibit autocatalytic decomposition behaviour whereas the others do not. This phenomenon can be attributed to the presence of a bridged hydrazine as well as the thermal stability of the anhydrous metal oxalates.

Study of switching characteristics and thermal noise in ferroelectric crystals both in the pure and radiation damaged state

The phase transition in gamma-irradiated triglycine sulphate (TGS) has been investigated by using a method based on the measurement of thermal noise. The results of a study of the polarization switching characteristics of gamma irradiated TGS and sodium nitrite (NaNO2) have also been presented. The effect of irradiation on the phase transition and the switching processes has been discussed.

Measurement of sensitivities for the thermal recording of laser beams

A simple technique for determining the energy sensitivities for the thermographic recording of laser beams is described. The principle behind this technique is that, if a laser beam with a known spatial distribution such as a Gaussian profile is used for imaging, the radius of the thermal image formed depends uniquely on the intensity of the impinging beam. Thus by measuring the radii of the images produced for different incident beam intensities the minimum intensity necessary (that is, the threshold) for thermographic imaging is found. The diameter of the laser beam can also be found from this measurement. A simple analysis based on the temperature distribution in the laser heated material shows that there is an inverse square root dependence on pulse duration or period of exposure for the energy fluence of the laser beam required, both for the threshold and the subsequent increase in the size of the recording. It has also been shown that except for low intensity, long duration exposure on very low conductivity materials, heat losses are not very significant.

Preparation, Characterisation and Thermal Properties of Hydrazinium Magnesium Sulfate

Hydrazinium magnesium sulfate, (N2H5)2Mg(SO4)2, has been prepared by dissolving magnesium powder in a solution of ammonium sulfate in hydrazine hydrate, by the reaction of ammonium magnesium sulfate with hydrazine hydrate, and by the cocrystallisation of dihydrazinium sulfate and magnesium sulfate. The product has been characterized by chemical analysis and infrared spectra. Thermal analysis of (N2H5)2Mg(SO4)2 by TG and DTA show exothermic decomposition at 302°C giving Mg(N2H4)SO4 as an intermediate and an endother-mic decomposition at 504°C producing MgSO4.

Ratio of Diffusion Coefficient to Mobility for Electrons in SF6-Air and Freon-Nitrogen Mixtures

The ratio of diffusion coefficient to mobility (D/¿) for electrons has been measured in SF6-air and freon-nitrogen mixtures for various concentrations of SF6 and freon in the mixtures over the range 140¿ E/p¿ 220 V.cm-1 - torr-1. In SF6-air mixtures, the values of D/¿ were always observed to lie intermediate between the values for the pure gases. However, in freon-nitrogen mixtures, with a small concentration (10 percent) of freon in the mixture, the values of D/¿ are found to lie above the boundaries determined by the pure gases. In this mixture, over the lower E/p range (140 to 190) the electrons appear to lose a large fraction of their energy by the excitation of the complex freon molecules, while at higher E/p values (200 to 240), the excitation and consequent deexcitation of nitrogen molecules and its metastables seem to cause an increased rate of ionization of freon molecules.

Thermal decomposition of alkali metal perchlorates

The effect of past mechanical history on the subsequent thermal decomposition kinetics of sodium, potassium, rubidium and caesium perchlorates, has been investigated. At low temperatures the decomposition of all these salts is significantly sensitized by pre-compression. At high temperatures, however, prior compression results in a lowered decomposition rate in the case of potassium, rubidium and caesium perchlorates and in an increase in the thermal reactivity of sodium perchlorate. The high temperature behaviour is shown to be an indirect consequence of the low temperature behaviour. The difference in behaviour between sodium perchlorate and the other alkali metal perchlorates is explained on the basis of the stability of the respective chlorates, formed during the low temperature decomposition. This is substantiated by experiments which show that the addition of sodium chlorate to sodium perchlorate brings about a sensitization while potassium perchlorate admixed with potassium chlorate results in a desensitization at high temperatures.

Sirex woodwasp range expansion in Australia: performance and parasitism on two commercial pine species

Sirex woodwasp was detected in Queensland in 2009 and rapidly established in softwood plantations (Pinus radiata and P. taeda) in southern border regions. Biocontrol inoculations of Deladenus siricidicola began soon after, and adults were monitored to assess the success of the programme. Wasp size, sex ratios, emergence phenology and nematode parasitism rates were recorded, along with the assessment of wild-caught females. Patterns varied within and among seasons, but overall, P. taeda appeared to be a less suitable host than P. radiata, producing smaller adults, lower fat body content and fewer females. Sirex emerging from P. taeda also showed lower levels of nematode parasitism, possibly due to interactions with the more abundant blue-stain fungus in this host. Sirex adults generally emerged between November and March, with distinct peaks in January and March, separated by a marked drop in emergence in early February. Temperature provided the best correlate of seasonal emergence, with fortnights with higher mean minimum temperatures having higher numbers of Sirex emerging. This has implications for the anticipated northward spread of Sirex into sub-tropical coastal plantation regions. Following four seasons of inundative release of nematodes in Queensland, parasitism rates remain low and have resulted in only partial sterilization of infected females.

Influence of rapid thermal annealing (RTA) on the structural and electrical properties of SnS films

The performance of optoelectronic devices critically depends on the quality of active layer. An effective way to obtain a high quality layers is by creating excess of metal atoms through various heat treatments. Recently, rapid thermal annealing (RTA) has proved a versatile technique for the post-treatment of semiconductor materials as compared to other techniques due to its precise control over the resources. Thus, we carried out a set of experiments on SnS films to explore the influence of RTA treatment on their properties. From these experiments we noticed that the films treated at 400 °C for 1 min in N2 atmosphere have a low electrical resistivity of ~5 Ωcm with relatively high Hall mobility and carrier density of 99 cm2/Vs and 1.3 × 1016 cm−3, respectively. The observed results, therefore, emphasise that it is possible to obtain good quality SnS films through RTA treatment without disturbing their crystal structure.

Formation of Pb(Ti,Zr)O3, from thermal decomposition of oxalate precursors

Lead zir conyl oxalate hexahydrate (LZO) and lead titanyl zirconyl oxalate hydrate (LTZO) are prepared and characterized. Their thermal decompositions have been investigated by thermoanalytical and gas analysis techniques. The decomposition in air or oxygen has three steps — dehydration, decomposition of the oxalate to a carbonate and the decomposition of carbonate to PbZrO3. In non oxidising atmosphere, partial reduction of Pb(II) to Pb(0) takes place at the oxalate decomposition step. The formation of free metallic lead affects the stoichiometry of the intermediate carbonate and yields a mixture of Pb(Ti,Zr)O3 and ZrO2 as the final products. By maintaining oxidising atmosphere and low heating rate, direct preparation of stoichiometric, crystalline Pb(Ti,Zr)O3 at 550°C is possible from the corresponding oxalate precursor.

Thermal stabilization of glucose oxidase and glucoamylase by physical entrapment

Physical entrapment was used as an approach to achieve thermal stabilization of enzymes. The ti values for the thermoinactivation of glucose oxidase and glucoamylase were increased several-fold by their entrapment in polyacrylamide gels. In polyacrylate gels the individual enzymes behaved differently, probably owing to microenvironmental effects arising by the polyelectrolyte nature of the carrier.

Thermal decomposition of rare-earth trioxalatocobaltates

The thermal decomposition of rare-earth trioxalatocobaltates LnCo(C2O4)3 · x H2O, where Ln = La, Pr, Nd, has been studied in flowing atmospheres of air/oxygen, argon/ nitrogen, carbon dioxide and a vacuum. The compounds decompose through three major steps, viz. dehydration, decomposition of the oxalate to an intermediate carbonate, which further decomposes to yield rare-earth cobaltite as the final product. The formation of the final product is influenced by the surrounding gas atmosphere. Studies on the thermal decomposition of photodecomposed lanthanum trioxalatocobaltate and a mechanical mixture of lanthanum oxalate and cobalt oxalate in 1 : 2 molar ratio reveal that the decomposition behaviour of the two samples is different. The drawbacks of the decomposition scheme proposed earlier have been pointed out, and logical schemes based on results obtained by TG, DTA, DTG, supplemented by various physico-chemical techniques such as gas and chemical analyses, IR and mass spectroscopy, surface area and magnetic susceptibility measurements and X-ray powder diffraction methods, have been proposed for the decomposition in air of rare-earth trioxalatocobaltates as well as for the photoreduced lanthanum salt and a mechanical mixture of lanthanum and cobalt oxalates.

Comparison of the impact of six heat-load management strategies on thermal responses and milk production of feed-pad and pasture fed dairy cows in a subtropical environment

Exposure to hot environments affects milk yield (MY) and milk composition of pasture and feed-pad fed dairy cows in subtropical regions. This study was undertaken during summer to compare MY and physiology of cows exposed to six heat-load management treatments. Seventy-eight Holstein-Friesian cows were blocked by season of calving, parity, milk yield, BW, and milk protein (%) and milk fat (%) measured in 2 weeks prior to the start of the study. Within blocks, cows were randomly allocated to one of the following treatments: open-sided iron roofed day pen adjacent to dairy (CID) + sprinklers (SP); CID only; non-shaded pen adjacent to dairy + SP (NSD + SP); open-sided shade cloth roofed day pen adjacent to dairy (SCD); NSD + sprinkler (sprinkler on for 45 min at 1100 h if mean respiration rate >80 breaths per minute (NSD + WSP)); open-sided shade cloth roofed structure over feed bunk in paddock + 1 km walk to and from the dairy (SCP + WLK). Sprinklers for CID + SP and NSD + SP cycled 2 min on, 12 min off when ambient temperature >26°C. The highest milk yields were in the CID + SP and CID treatments (23.9 L cow−1 day−1), intermediate for NSD + SP, SCD and SCP + WLK (22.4 L cow−1 day−1), and lowest for NSD + WSP (21.3 L cow−1 day−1) (P < 0.05). The highest (P < 0.05) feed intakes occurred in the CID + SP and CID treatments while intake was lowest (P < 0.05) for NSD + WSP and SCP + WLK. Weather data were collected on site at 10-min intervals, and from these, THI was calculated. Nonlinear regression modelling of MY × THI and heat-load management treatment demonstrated that cows in CID + SP showed no decline in MY out to a THI break point value of 83.2, whereas the pooled MY of the other treatments declined when THI >80.7. A combination of iron roof shade plus water sprinkling throughout the day provided the most effective control of heat load.

Dispersion of the stress-optic coefficient in glasses

The stress-optic coefficient (n3/2)(q11-q12) has been determined for a series of 18 optical glasses of different compositions in the wavelength range 5700-3200 Å. The coefficients are negative for all the glasses except for a high-lead-content glass of density 6·7 and refractive index 1·89. The numerical value of the coefficient decreases as one proceeds to the ultraviolet. This behaviour is just the opposite of what is observed in fused silica. By applying Mueller's theory, the strain polarizability constant and its dispersion have been evaluated.