From authoritarianism to upheaval : the political economy of the Syrian uprising and regime persistence

The ensuing bloodshed and deteriorating humanitarian crisis in Syria, the failure of the United Nations Security Council to reach a consensus on what action to take, and the involvement of contending external actors partially reflect the complexity of the current impasse. Despite the importance of regional and international factors, however, this papers attempts to argue that the domestic dynamics of the Syrian crisis have been vitally important in determining the course of the popular uprising and the regime’s response. In this, Syria’s crisis belongs with the Arab Spring the trajectories and prospects of which have been shaped by dynamics within regimes. It will be seen that the formal and informal institutional structure of the Ba‘thist regime in Syria has been critical to its resilience and ability to stay united so far while attempting to crush a peaceful popular uprising that turned into insurgency in the face of the regime’s violent crackdown.

Five growth strategies for Myanmar : re-engagement with the global economy

After decades of isolation, Myanmar is now actively re-engaging with the global economy. For successful re-engagement, Myanmar needs to implement comprehensive economic reforms based on a shared vision for long-term economic development that is characterized by human-centered, high, sustainable, pro-poor, inclusive, and balanced economic growth. In this paper, we propose five growth strategies: "Agriculture Plus Plus," an export-oriented strategy, a foreign direct investment-driven strategy, a two-polar growth strategy, and a strategy to develop domestic economic corridors. These strategies are used as guides to translate these development agendas into a set of implementable policies, programs, and projects.

Shedding light on the shadow economy : a nighttime light approach

Measuring the shadow economy is inherently difficult, but critical for understanding economic development. Using census data on formal and informal sectors in Cambodia, we document that 96.6% of non-farm establishments do not formally register with the government, and their sales accounted for 76.6% of total sales in 2011. We estimate a relationship between nighttime light and sales across regions separately for formal and informal firms for 2011, and estimate their past sales from changes in nighttime light for 1993-2010. Both formal and informal firms increased their estimated sales, and the share of informal sales increased from 68.8% in 1993 to 76.6% in 2011, suggesting that the informal sector increased quantitatively in both absolute and relative terms throughout the economic development of the Cambodian economy.

An epidemic of tuberculosis with a high rate of tuberculin anergy among a population previously unexposed to tuberculosis, the Yanomami Indians of the Brazilian Amazon

A survey of an emerging tuberculosis epidemic among the Yanomami Indians of the Amazonian rain forest provided a unique opportunity to study the impact of tuberculosis on a population isolated from contact with the tubercle bacillus for millennia until the mid-1960s. Within the Yanomami population, an extraordinary high prevalence of active tuberculosis (6.4% of 625 individuals clinically examined) was observed, indicating a high susceptibility to disease, even among bacille Calmette–Guérin-vaccinated individuals. Observational studies on cell-mediated and humoral immune responses of the Yanomami Indians compared with contemporary residents of the region suggest profound differences in immunological responsiveness to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Among the Yanomami, a very high prevalence of tuberculin skin test anergy was found. Of patients with active tuberculosis, 46% had purified protein derivative of tuberculosis reactions <10 mm; similarly 58% of recent bacillus Calmette–Guérin vaccines exhibited skin test reactions <5 mm. The Yanomami also had higher titers of antibodies against M. tuberculosis glycolipid antigens (>70%) than the control subjects comprised of Brazilians of European descent (14%). The antibodies were mostly of the IgM isotype. Among the tuberculosis patients who also produced IgG antibodies, the titers of IgG4 were significantly higher among the Yanomami than in the control population. Although it was not possible to analyze T-cell responses or patterns of lymphokine production in vitro because of the remoteness of the villages from laboratory facilities, the results suggest that the first encounter of the Yanomami Indian population with tuberculosis engenders a diminished cell-mediated immune response and an increased production antibody responses, relative to other populations with extensive previous contact with the pathogen. These findings suggest that tuberculosis may represent a powerful selective pressure on human evolution that over centuries has shaped the nature of human immune responses to infection.

The new economy in Spain: a regional analysis

Paper submitted to the 44th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Porto, 25-29 August 2004.

Fashions and fads in finance: contingent emulation and the political economy of sovereign wealth fund creation. IHS Political Science Series No. 131, July 2012

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), government-owned or managed investment vehicles, have proliferated at a remarkable rate over the past decade, even as political controversy has surrounded them. Why? The extant literature depicts the process of SWF creation as driven by functional imperatives associated with “excess” revenue and reserves accumulated from commodity booms and large current account surpluses. I argue that SWF creation also reflects in large part a process of contingent emulation in which first this policy has been constructed as appropriate for countries with given characteristics, and then when countries took on these characteristics, they followed their peers. Put simply, fashions and fads in finance matter for policy diffusion. I assess this argument using a new dataset on SWF creation that covers nearly 80 countries from 1984 to 2007. The results suggest peer-based contingent emulation has been a crucial factor shaping the decision of many countries to create a SWF, especially among fuel exporters. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, 2 – 5 September 2010. The author would like to thank Eric Neumayer for his many suggestions and comments on previous versions of the manuscript. The author would also like to thank Zachary Elkins for sharing data. Finally, the author would like to acknowledge the research assistance of Natali Bulamacioglu and Christopher Gandrud.

Transaction Banking: Respecting its role in the real economy. ECRI Policy Brief No. 6, 6 December 2013

This paper sketches the main features and issues related to recent market developments in global transaction banking (GTB), particularly in trade finance, cash management and correspondent banking. It describes the basic functioning of the GTB, its interaction with global financial markets and related implications of global regulatory developments such as Basel III. The interest in GTB has recently increased, since its low-risk profile, tendency to follow growth rates worldwide and relative independence from other financial instruments became an interesting diversification opportunity both for banks’ business models and for investors. Transaction banking has been a resilient business during the crisis, despite the reduction in world trade figures. In the post crisis period, GTB must cope with new challenges related to increased local and global regulation and the risk of inconsistency in regulatory approaches, which could negatively impact the global network and increased competition by new market entrants. Increased sophistication of corporate clients, as well as the pressure to develop and adopt technological innovations more quickly than other areas of banking continues to impact the business. The future of the industry closely depends on its ability to adjust to complex regulatory developments while at the same time being able to operate a global and efficient network.

The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe. CEPS Paperback, 2 April 2014

This groundbreaking study concentrates on a set of critical economic factors that will shape future economic growth at the global level and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope. Our goal in pursuing this research is not to make precise predictions about growth rates or the size of individual economies, but to provide a guide for EU policy-makers by presenting an assessment of the possible implications of such trends for the global economy and the policy challenges they raise for Europe. In an attempt to respond to this need, this study concentrates on a set of critical economic factors that will shape future economic growth at the global level and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope, which often go beyond the purely economic dimension. Our ultimate goal is to provide a guide for policy-makers by presenting an assessment of the possible implications of such trends for the global economy and the policy challenges they raise for Europe.

Japan and the European Union in the global economy. Bruegel Blueprint 22, 9 April 2014

This book is the final output of a strategic European Union-Japan research partnership, which we initiated in order to deepen our understanding of two major economies facing similar challenges and opportunities. This publication brings together scholars from Kobe University and Bruegel along with selected outside contributors from Japan and the EU from government and leading policy institutions.