984 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction


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Many diseases are believed to be related to abnormal protein folding. In the first step of such pathogenic structural changes, misfolding occurs in regions important for the stability of the native structure. This destabilizes the normal protein conformation, while exposing the previously hidden aggregation-prone regions, leading to subsequent errors in the folding pathway. Sites involved in this first stage can be deemed switch regions of the protein, and can represent perfect binding targets for drugs to block the abnormal folding pathway and prevent pathogenic conformational changes. In this study, a prediction algorithm for the switch regions responsible for the start of pathogenic structural changes is introduced. With an accuracy of 94%, this algorithm can successfully find short segments covering sites significant in triggering conformational diseases (CDs) and is the first that can predict switch regions for various CDs. To illustrate its effectiveness in dealing with urgent public health problems, the reason of the increased pathogenicity of H5N1 influenza virus is analyzed; the mechanisms of the pandemic swine-origin 2009 A(H1N1) influenza virus in overcoming species barriers and in infecting large number of potential patients are also suggested. It is shown that the algorithm is a potential tool useful in the study of the pathology of CDs because: (1) it can identify the origin of pathogenic structural conversion with high sensitivity and specificity, and (2) it provides an ideal target for clinical treatment.

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Size effects of mechanical behaviors of materials are referred to the variation of the mechanical behavior due to the sample sizes changing from macroscale to micro-/nanoscales. At the micro-/nanoscale, since sample has a relatively high specific surface area (SSA) (ratio of surface area to volume), the surface although it is often neglected at the macroscale, becomes prominent in governing the energy effect, although it is often neglected at the macroscale, becomes prominent in governing the mechanical behavior. In the present research, a continuum model considering the surface energy effect is developed through introducing the surface energy to total potential energy. Simultaneously, a corresponding finite element method is developed. The model is used to analyze the axial equilibrium strain problem for a Cu nanowire at the external loading-free state. As another application of the model, from dimensional analysis, the size effects of uniform compression tests on the microscale cylinder specimens for Ni and Au single crystals are analyzed and compared with experiments in literatures. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The phytoplankton distribution of the Shen Reservoir, Bukuru in the Jos Plateau, Nigeria was monitored at 6 depths. Higher floral abundance occurred within the upper 00-03 meters with highest values at the first 1 meter. Bacillariophyceae and Dinophyceae recorded higher values in March-April with lower values in July and January respectively. Phytoplankton were most abundant in the rainy season. Secchi disc transparency was lowest in the peak of the rainy season (July) due to higher levels of suspended matter resulting from the increased run-off from surrounding farmlands of allochthonous materials as well as higher levels of phytoplankton population arising from the former factor. The low water temperature of December/January 15 degree C plus or minus 2 degree C might have depressed growth among the major groups of plankters but enhanced rapid multiplication of the Chlorophyta, Trachelomonas which showed a bloom at this season

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Monthly catches of the Macrobrachium fisheries were recorded at a commercial shrimp landing site on the coasts of Calabar (Nigeria), from April 1997 to August 1998. Catches fluctuated over an annual cycle, with two peaks occurring from May-July and November-December. These peaks represented periods of major activities, reproduction, recruitment or migration. Also, mean catches decreased in the months of February and August, corresponding to the peak of dry season and the so-called 'August break', respectively. Catches from active gears (seine, push net) varied among the moon phases too, with a main peak during full moon, and the minimum catch was recorded during the first moon quarter. However, the catch from passive gear (trap) depicted an inverse relationship, showing a peak during the first moon quarter. Variation in catches at different months and moon phases were significant at P:0.05. Recognize these variations and trends would help in management decisions such as defining closed seasons without adversely affecting the economy of the fishers

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A new transition prediction model is introduced, which couples the intermittency effect into the turbulence transport equations and takes the characteristics of fluid transition into consideration to mimic the exact process of transition. Test cases include a two-dimensional incompressible plate and a two-dimensional NACA0012 airfoil. Performance of this transition model for incompressible flows is studied, with numerical results consistent to experimental data. The requirement of grid resolution for this transition model is also studied.

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Gold Coast Water is responsible for the management of the water and wastewater assets of the City of the Gold Coast on Australia’s east coast. Treated wastewater is released at the Gold Coast Seaway on an outgoing tide in order for the plume to be dispersed before the tide changes and renters the Broadwater estuary. Rapid population growth over the past decade has placed increasing demands on the receiving waters for the release of the City’s effluent. The Seaway SmartRelease Project is designed to optimise the release of the effluent from the City’s main wastewater treatment plant in order to minimise the impact of the estuarine water quality and maximise the cost efficiency of pumping. In order to do this an optimisation study that involves water quality monitoring, numerical modelling and a web based decision support system was conducted. An intensive monitoring campaign provided information on water levels, currents, winds, waves, nutrients and bacterial levels within the Broadwater. These data were then used to calibrate and verify numerical models using the MIKE by DHI suite of software. The decision support system then collects continually measured data such as water levels, interacts with the WWTP SCADA system, runs the models in forecast mode and provides the optimal time window to release the required amount of effluent from the WWTP. The City’s increasing population means that the length of time available for releasing the water with minimal impact may be exceeded within 5 years. Optimising the release of the treated water through monitoring, modelling and a decision support system has been an effective way of demonstrating the limited environmental impact of the expected short term increase in effluent disposal procedures. (PDF contains 5 pages)

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Part I.

We have developed a technique for measuring the depth time history of rigid body penetration into brittle materials (hard rocks and concretes) under a deceleration of ~ 105 g. The technique includes bar-coded projectile, sabot-projectile separation, detection and recording systems. Because the technique can give very dense data on penetration depth time history, penetration velocity can be deduced. Error analysis shows that the technique has a small intrinsic error of ~ 3-4 % in time during penetration, and 0.3 to 0.7 mm in penetration depth. A series of 4140 steel projectile penetration into G-mixture mortar targets have been conducted using the Caltech 40 mm gas/ powder gun in the velocity range of 100 to 500 m/s.

We report, for the first time, the whole depth-time history of rigid body penetration into brittle materials (the G-mixture mortar) under 105 g deceleration. Based on the experimental results, including penetration depth time history, damage of recovered target and projectile materials and theoretical analysis, we find:

1. Target materials are damaged via compacting in the region in front of a projectile and via brittle radial and lateral crack propagation in the region surrounding the penetration path. The results suggest that expected cracks in front of penetrators may be stopped by a comminuted region that is induced by wave propagation. Aggregate erosion on the projectile lateral surface is < 20% of the final penetration depth. This result suggests that the effect of lateral friction on the penetration process can be ignored.

2. Final penetration depth, Pmax, is linearly scaled with initial projectile energy per unit cross-section area, es , when targets are intact after impact. Based on the experimental data on the mortar targets, the relation is Pmax(mm) 1.15es (J/mm2 ) + 16.39.

3. Estimation of the energy needed to create an unit penetration volume suggests that the average pressure acting on the target material during penetration is ~ 10 to 20 times higher than the unconfined strength of target materials under quasi-static loading, and 3 to 4 times higher than the possible highest pressure due to friction and material strength and its rate dependence. In addition, the experimental data show that the interaction between cracks and the target free surface significantly affects the penetration process.

4. Based on the fact that the penetration duration, tmax, increases slowly with es and does not depend on projectile radius approximately, the dependence of tmax on projectile length is suggested to be described by tmax(μs) = 2.08es (J/mm2 + 349.0 x m/(πR2), in which m is the projectile mass in grams and R is the projectile radius in mm. The prediction from this relation is in reasonable agreement with the experimental data for different projectile lengths.

5. Deduced penetration velocity time histories suggest that whole penetration history is divided into three stages: (1) An initial stage in which the projectile velocity change is small due to very small contact area between the projectile and target materials; (2) A steady penetration stage in which projectile velocity continues to decrease smoothly; (3) A penetration stop stage in which projectile deceleration jumps up when velocities are close to a critical value of ~ 35 m/s.

6. Deduced averaged deceleration, a, in the steady penetration stage for projectiles with same dimensions is found to be a(g) = 192.4v + 1.89 x 104, where v is initial projectile velocity in m/s. The average pressure acting on target materials during penetration is estimated to be very comparable to shock wave pressure.

7. A similarity of penetration process is found to be described by a relation between normalized penetration depth, P/Pmax, and normalized penetration time, t/tmax, as P/Pmax = f(t/tmax, where f is a function of t/tmax. After f(t/tmax is determined using experimental data for projectiles with 150 mm length, the penetration depth time history for projectiles with 100 mm length predicted by this relation is in good agreement with experimental data. This similarity also predicts that average deceleration increases with decreasing projectile length, that is verified by the experimental data.

8. Based on the penetration process analysis and the present data, a first principle model for rigid body penetration is suggested. The model incorporates the models for contact area between projectile and target materials, friction coefficient, penetration stop criterion, and normal stress on the projectile surface. The most important assumptions used in the model are: (1) The penetration process can be treated as a series of impact events, therefore, pressure normal to projectile surface is estimated using the Hugoniot relation of target material; (2) The necessary condition for penetration is that the pressure acting on target materials is not lower than the Hugoniot elastic limit; (3) The friction force on projectile lateral surface can be ignored due to cavitation during penetration. All the parameters involved in the model are determined based on independent experimental data. The penetration depth time histories predicted from the model are in good agreement with the experimental data.

9. Based on planar impact and previous quasi-static experimental data, the strain rate dependence of the mortar compressive strength is described by σf0f = exp(0.0905(log(έ/έ_0) 1.14, in the strain rate range of 10-7/s to 103/s (σ0f and έ are reference compressive strength and strain rate, respectively). The non-dispersive Hugoniot elastic wave in the G-mixture has an amplitude of ~ 0.14 GPa and a velocity of ~ 4.3 km/s.

Part II.

Stress wave profiles in vitreous GeO2 were measured using piezoresistance gauges in the pressure range of 5 to 18 GPa under planar plate and spherical projectile impact. Experimental data show that the response of vitreous GeO2 to planar shock loading can be divided into three stages: (1) A ramp elastic precursor has peak amplitude of 4 GPa and peak particle velocity of 333 m/s. Wave velocity decreases from initial longitudinal elastic wave velocity of 3.5 km/s to 2.9 km/s at 4 GPa; (2) A ramp wave with amplitude of 2.11 GPa follows the precursor when peak loading pressure is 8.4 GPa. Wave velocity drops to the value below bulk wave velocity in this stage; (3) A shock wave achieving final shock state forms when peak pressure is > 6 GPa. The Hugoniot relation is D = 0.917 + 1.711u (km/s) using present data and the data of Jackson and Ahrens [1979] when shock wave pressure is between 6 and 40 GPa for ρ0 = 3.655 gj cm3 . Based on the present data, the phase change from 4-fold to 6-fold coordination of Ge+4 with O-2 in vitreous GeO2 occurs in the pressure range of 4 to 15 ± 1 GPa under planar shock loading. Comparison of the shock loading data for fused SiO2 to that on vitreous GeO2 demonstrates that transformation to the rutile structure in both media are similar. The Hugoniots of vitreous GeO2 and fused SiO2 are found to coincide approximately if pressure in fused SiO2 is scaled by the ratio of fused SiO2to vitreous GeO2 density. This result, as well as the same structure, provides the basis for considering vitreous Ge02 as an analogous material to fused SiO2 under shock loading. Experimental results from the spherical projectile impact demonstrate: (1) The supported elastic shock in fused SiO2 decays less rapidly than a linear elastic wave when elastic wave stress amplitude is higher than 4 GPa. The supported elastic shock in vitreous GeO2 decays faster than a linear elastic wave; (2) In vitreous GeO2 , unsupported shock waves decays with peak pressure in the phase transition range (4-15 GPa) with propagation distance, x, as α 1/x-3.35 , close to the prediction of Chen et al. [1998]. Based on a simple analysis on spherical wave propagation, we find that the different decay rates of a spherical elastic wave in fused SiO2 and vitreous GeO2 is predictable on the base of the compressibility variation with stress under one-dimensional strain condition in the two materials.

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In this reservoir, the parameters being assessed are very important in the aspect of fish culture. These parameters are: physical parameters which includes temperature (O), Transparency (M).Chemical parameters include: Dissolve oxygen (mg/l) pH concentration and the Biological Parameters which include phytoplankton and zooplankton. The phytoplankton and zooplankton identification and estimation were carried out in the NIFFR Limnology Laboratory, (Green House), New Bussa. Each identified zooplankton and phytoplankton species was placed according to its major group e.g. zooplankton was grouped into three families, Roifera, Cladocera and Copepods. During this study period it was observed that copepods have the highest total number of zooplankton both beside the poultry and monk (station 'A'&'B'). Water temperature of station 'A' (beside the poultry house) ranges from 27 C-29, 5 c also same station 'B' (near the monk). Dissolve oxygen station 'A' range from 6.30mg/l-7.40mg/l while that of station 'B' ranges from 6.20mg/7.50mg/l, turbidity reading of station A'ranges from 0.19m-0.3m while station 'B' ranges from 0.22m-0.37m. The last parameter, which is pH concentration, in both stations 8.2 was observed this is an indication that the pH was constant. According to some literature review all the water parameter figures obtained were good for fish culture

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In a semi-urbanized stretch of river Kubanni, Zaria, seasonal variations of some tree metals (copper, zinc and lead) in fish species (Clarias sp., Tilapia sp and Alestes sp) were investigated over a period of eight months. Water and fish were sampled monthly, pooled separately and seasonal analysis of each trace determined using atomic absorption method. The concentration of each of the elements in water higher in the dry season than during the rainy season. The dry and rainy season concentrations of copper, zinc and lead were 6.85~c10.66 mu gg super(-1)&1.45~c1.10 mu gg super(-1); 2.13~c1.68 mu gg super(-1)&0.1 5~c0.05 mu gg super(-1); and 0.52~c0.50 mu gg super(-1) & 0.31~c0.14 mu gg super(-1) respectively. Similarly, all the three accumulated more zinc and lead in the dry season than during the rainy season. Tilapia species and to some extent, Alestes species being pelagic had a higher concentration of trace metals than Clarias species which is a bottom dwelling fish Tilapia species may therefore be a better indicator species than Clarias species for monitoring trace metals in water bodies. Reasons for the observed variations in the trace metals were discussed