993 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction


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Water stress is a defining characteristic of Mediterranean ecosystems, and is likely to become more severe in the coming decades. Simulation models are key tools for making predictions, but our current understanding of how soil moisture controls ecosystem functioning is not sufficient to adequately constrain parameterisations. Canopy-scale flux data from four forest ecosystems with Mediterranean-type climates were used in order to analyse the physiological controls on carbon and water flues through the year. Significant non-stomatal limitations on photosynthesis were detected, along with lesser changes in the conductance-assimilation relationship. New model parameterisations were derived and implemented in two contrasting modelling approaches. The effectiveness of two models, one a dynamic global vegetation model ('ORCHIDEE'), and the other a forest growth model particularly developed for Mediterranean simulations ('GOTILWA+'), was assessed and modelled canopy responses to seasonal changes in soil moisture were analysed in comparison with in situ flux measurements. In contrast to commonly held assumptions, we find that changing the ratio of conductance to assimilation under natural, seasonally-developing, soil moisture stress is not sufficient to reproduce forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes. However, accurate predictions of both CO2 and water fluxes under all soil moisture levels encountered in the field are obtained if photosynthetic capacity is assumed to vary with soil moisture. This new parameterisation has important consequences for simulated responses of carbon and water fluxes to seasonal soil moisture stress, and should greatly improve our ability to anticipate future impacts of climate changes on the functioning of ecosystems in Mediterranean-type climates.

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Aerial parts of Elyonurus muticus were collected in the four seasons of the year in the Brazilian Pantanal and subjected to extractrion with cold ethanol and to hydrodistillation. Sesquiterpenoids (E)-caryophyllene, bicyclogermacrene, spathulenol and caryophyllene oxide were the main components identified in the essential oils and their concentrations varied according to the plant collection period. The essential oils and the ethanolic crude extracts were active against Bacillus cereus MIP 96016, Pseudomonas aeruginosa ATCC 27853 and Staphylococcus aureus ATCC 25923 and were not active against Escherichia coli ATCC 25922. The antibacterial activities varied according to the plant collection period.

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Essential oils from leaves, ripe and unripe fruits of Schinus terebinthifolius growing in Brazil were investigated. Oil content from either ripe or unripe fruits was similar (4.65% and 3.98%, respectively). Sesquiterpenes (from 78.0% to 90.4%) dominated the oil content of both leaves and unripe fruit. The essential oils were tested in vitro for their allelopathic activity on germination and radicle growth of Lactuca sativa and Cucumis sativus at 1,000 and 10,000 µg mL-1concentrations. The three samples tested were more active in inhibiting the radicle growth for L. sativa (88.6-92.4%) than for C. sativus (50.5-84.5%) at 10,000 µg mL-1 concentration.

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The present thesis in focused on the minimization of experimental efforts for the prediction of pollutant propagation in rivers by mathematical modelling and knowledge re-use. Mathematical modelling is based on the well known advection-dispersion equation, while the knowledge re-use approach employs the methods of case based reasoning, graphical analysis and text mining. The thesis contribution to the pollutant transport research field consists of: (1) analytical and numerical models for pollutant transport prediction; (2) two novel techniques which enable the use of variable parameters along rivers in analytical models; (3) models for the estimation of pollutant transport characteristic parameters (velocity, dispersion coefficient and nutrient transformation rates) as functions of water flow, channel characteristics and/or seasonality; (4) the graphical analysis method to be used for the identification of pollution sources along rivers; (5) a case based reasoning tool for the identification of crucial information related to the pollutant transport modelling; (6) and the application of a software tool for the reuse of information during pollutants transport modelling research. These support tools are applicable in the water quality research field and in practice as well, as they can be involved in multiple activities. The models are capable of predicting pollutant propagation along rivers in case of both ordinary pollution and accidents. They can also be applied for other similar rivers in modelling of pollutant transport in rivers with low availability of experimental data concerning concentration. This is because models for parameter estimation developed in the present thesis enable the calculation of transport characteristic parameters as functions of river hydraulic parameters and/or seasonality. The similarity between rivers is assessed using case based reasoning tools, and additional necessary information can be identified by using the software for the information reuse. Such systems represent support for users and open up possibilities for new modelling methods, monitoring facilities and for better river water quality management tools. They are useful also for the estimation of environmental impact of possible technological changes and can be applied in the pre-design stage or/and in the practical use of processes as well.

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The risk of cardiovascular diseases and sleep-disordered breathing increases after menopause. This cross-sectional study focuses on overnight transcutaneous carbon dioxide (TcCO2) measurements and their power to predict changes in the early markers of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. The endothelial function of the brachial artery, the intima-media thickness of the carotid artery, blood pressure, glycosylated hemoglobin A1C and plasma levels of cholesterols and triglycerides were used as markers of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. The study subjects consisted of healthy premenopausal women of 46 years of age and postmenopausal women of 56 years of age. From wakefulness to sleep, the TcCO2 levels increased more in postmenopausal women than in premenopausal women. In estrogen-users the increase in TcCO2 levels was even more pronounced than in other postmenopausal women. From the dynamic behaviour of the nocturnal TcCO2 signal, several important features were detected. These TcCO2 features had a remarkable role in the prediction of endothelial dysfunction and thickening of the carotid wall in healthy premenopausal women. In addition, these TcCO2 features were linked with blood pressure, lipid profile and glucose balance in postmenopausal women. The nocturnal TcCO2 profile seems to contain significant information, which is associated with early changes in cardiovascular diseases in middle-aged women. TcCO2 might not only measure the tissue carbon dioxide levels, but the TcCO2 signal variation may also reflect peripheral vasodynamic events caused by increased sympathetic activity during sleep.

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This work evaluated the chemical quality of organic matter (OM) of a Brazilian Oxisol cultivated with coffee plants, under organic and conventional managements. Total organic C (TOC), light fraction C (LF-C) and C in humic (HA-C) and fulvic (FA-C) acids fractions was measured. Amongst the evaluated indexes, TOC and LF-C discriminated better OM attributes as a function of management. The stratification ratio (TOC5-10cm/TOC10-20cm) did not show differences between the systems studied. The organic system can contribute to the sustainability of coffee plantations in Brazil, because it maintains the chemical attributes of OM closer to the indexes verified under forest conditions.

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Invocatio: D.D.

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Understanding the factors controlling fine root respiration (FRR) at different temporal scales will help to improve our knowledge about the spatial and temporal variability of soil respiration (SR) and to improve future predictions of CO2 effluxes to the atmosphere. Here we present a comparative study of how FRR respond to variability in soil temperature and moisture in two widely spread species, Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Holm-oaks (HO; Quercus ilex L.). Those two species show contrasting water use strategies during the extreme summer-drought conditions that characterize the Mediterranean climate. The study was carried out on a mixed Mediterranean forest where Scots pines affected by drought induced die-back are slowly being replaced by the more drought resistant HO. FRR was measured in spring and early fall 2013 in excised roots freshly removed from the soil and collected under HO and under Scots pines at three different health stages: dead (D), defoliated (DP) and non-defoliated (NDP). Variations in soil temperature, soil water content and daily mean assimilation per tree were also recorded to evaluate FRR sensibility to abiotic and biotic environmental variations. Our results show that values of FRR were substantially lower under HO (1.26 ± 0.16 microgram CO2 /groot·min) than under living pines (1.89 ± 0.19 microgram CO2 /groot·min) which disagrees with the similar rates of soil respiration previously observed under both canopies and suggest that FRR contribution to total SR varies under different tree species. The similarity of FRR rates under HO and DP furthermore confirms other previous studies suggesting a recent Holm-oak root colonization of the gaps under dead trees. A linear mixed effect model approach indicated that seasonal variations in FRR were best explained by soil temperature (p<0.05) while soil moisture was not exerting any direct control over FRR, despite the low soil moisture values during the summer sampling. Plant assimilation rates were positively related to FRR explaining part of the observed variability (p<0.01). However the positive relations of FRR with plant assimilation occurred mainly during spring, when both soil moisture and plant assimilation rates were higher. Our results finally suggest that plants might be able to maintain relatively high rates of FRR during the sub-optimal abiotic and biotic summer conditions probably thanks to their capacity to re-mobilize carbon reserves and their capacity to passively move water from moister layers to upper layers with lower water potentials (where the FR were collected) by hydraulic lift.

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Invocatio: Q.F.F.Q.S.

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This study evaluated the environmental impact resulting from surface water and sediment contamination by metals in a watershed affected by a tailing basin that controls effluents coming from a zinc-ore beneficiation plant. The studies combined assessments of sediment chemistry (exceedances of sediment quality guidelines), benthic assemblage structure and acute and chronic ecotoxicity. The results showed that the levels of metal contamination in sediments are not yet enough to cause deleterious effects to the biota. However, the ecotoxicity tests indicated the occurrence of chronic effects, demonstrating that other factors, as the use of fertilizers, could also be a source of contamination.

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Invocatio: I.N.D.

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Invocatio: I.N.D.O.M.

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Genetic algorithm and partial least square (GA-PLS) and kernel PLS (GA-KPLS) techniques were used to investigate the correlation between retention indices (RI) and descriptors for 117 diverse compounds in essential oils from 5 Pimpinella species gathered from central Turkey which were obtained by gas chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The square correlation coefficient leave-group-out cross validation (LGO-CV) (Q²) between experimental and predicted RI for training set by GA-PLS and GA-KPLS was 0.940 and 0.963, respectively. This indicates that GA-KPLS can be used as an alternative modeling tool for quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) studies.

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The species Eremanthus mattogrossensis, known as "veludo do cerrado" (cerrado velvet), is native to the Brazilian Cerrado. Because the amount of metabolites present in plants may be influenced by biological and environmental factors, here we conducted an HPLC-DAD-MS/MS investigation of the metabolite concentrations found in the MeOH/H2O extract of the leaves of this species. The main compounds were identified and quantified, and the metabolites were grouped by chemical class (caffeoylquinic acids, flavonoids, and sesquiterpene lactone). Statistical analysis indicated a straight correlation between the quantity of metabolites and seasonality, suggesting that environmental properties elicit important metabolic responses.