Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Predicting the revolving door phenomenon among patients with schizophrenic, affective disorders and non-organic psychoses

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify the variables that predict the revolving door phenomenon in psychiatric hospital at the moment of a second admission. METHODS: The sample consisted of 3,093 patients who have been followed during 5 to 24 years after their first hospital admission due to schizophrenia, and affective or psychotic disorders. Those who had had four or more admissions during the study period were considered as revolving door patients. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the impact of gender, age, marital status, urban conditions, diagnosis, mean period of stay on the first admission, interval between the first and second admissions on the patterns of hospitalization. RESULTS: The variables with the highest predictive power for readmission were the interval between first and second admissions, and the length of stay in the first admission. CONCLUSIONS: These data may help public health planners in providing optimal care to a small group of patients with more effective utilization of the available services.

Avaliação da função ventricular esquerda e dimensão da aurícula esquerda por Vscan® e relatório de estágio

Mestrado em Tecnologia de Diagnóstico e Intervenção Cardiovascular. Área de especialização: Ultrassonografia Cardiovascular.

The role of discriminant analysis in the refinement of customer satisfaction assessment

OBJECTIVE: To test discriminant analysis as a method of turning the information of a routine customer satisfaction survey (CSS) into a more accurate decision-making tool. METHODS: A 7-question, 10-multiple choice, self-applied questionnaire was used to study a sample of patients seen in two outpatient care units in Valparaíso, Chile, one of primary care (n=100) and the other of secondary care (n=249). Two cutting points were considered in the dependent variable (final satisfaction score): satisfied versus unsatisfied, and very satisfied versus all others. Results were compared with empirical measures (proportion of satisfied individuals, proportion of unsatisfied individuals and size of the median). RESULTS: The response rate was very high, over 97.0% in both units. A new variable, medical attention, was revealed, as explaining satisfaction at the primary care unit. The proportion of the total variability explained by the model was very high (over 99.4%) in both units, when comparing satisfied with unsatisfied customers. In the analysis of very satisfied versus all other customers, significant relationship was identified only in the case of the primary care unit, which explained a small proportion of the variability (41.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Discriminant analysis identified relationships not revealed by the previous analysis. It provided information about the proportion of the variability explained by the model. It identified non-significant relationships suggested by empirical analysis (e.g. the case of the relation very satisfied versus others in the secondary care unit). It measured the contribution of each independent variable to the explanation of the variation of the dependent one.

Evaluation of the respiratory motion effect in small animal PET images with GATE Monte Carlo simulations

The rapid growth in genetics and molecular biology combined with the development of techniques for genetically engineering small animals has led to increased interest in in vivo small animal imaging. Small animal imaging has been applied frequently to the imaging of small animals (mice and rats), which are ubiquitous in modeling human diseases and testing treatments. The use of PET in small animals allows the use of subjects as their own control, reducing the interanimal variability. This allows performing longitudinal studies on the same animal and improves the accuracy of biological models. However, small animal PET still suffers from several limitations. The amounts of radiotracers needed, limited scanner sensitivity, image resolution and image quantification issues, all could clearly benefit from additional research. Because nuclear medicine imaging deals with radioactive decay, the emission of radiation energy through photons and particles alongside with the detection of these quanta and particles in different materials make Monte Carlo method an important simulation tool in both nuclear medicine research and clinical practice. In order to optimize the quantitative use of PET in clinical practice, data- and image-processing methods are also a field of intense interest and development. The evaluation of such methods often relies on the use of simulated data and images since these offer control of the ground truth. Monte Carlo simulations are widely used for PET simulation since they take into account all the random processes involved in PET imaging, from the emission of the positron to the detection of the photons by the detectors. Simulation techniques have become an importance and indispensable complement to a wide range of problems that could not be addressed by experimental or analytical approaches.

Identificação de compostos que modulam a patogénese da doença de Machado-Joseph em C.elegans: autofagia como alvo terapêutico: identification of small compounds that modulate pathogenesis of Machado-Joseph disease in a C.elegans model: targeting autophagy

A doença de Machado-Joseph (DMJ) ou ataxia espinocerebelosa do tipo 3 (SCA3), conhecida por ser a mais comum das ataxias hereditárias dominantes em todo o mundo, é uma doença neurodegenerativa autossómica dominante que leva a uma grande incapacidade motora, embora sem alterar o intelecto, culminando com a morte do doente. Atualmente não existe nenhum tratamento eficaz para esta doença. A DMJ é resultado de uma alteração genética causada pela expansão de uma sequência poliglutamínica (poliQ), na região C-terminal do gene que codifica a proteína ataxina-3 (ATXN3). Os mecanismos celulares das doenças de poliglutaminas que provocam toxicidade, bem como a função da ATXN3, não são ainda totalmente conhecidos. Neste trabalho, usamos, pela sua simplicidade e potencial genético, um pequeno animal invertebrado, o nemátode C. elegans, com o objetivo de identificar fármacos eficazes para o combate contra a patogénese da DMJ, analisando simultaneamente o seu efeito na agregação da ATXN3 mutante nas células neuronais in vivo e o seu impacto no comportamento motor dos animais. Este pequeno invertebrado proporciona grandes vantagens no estudo dos efeitos tóxicos de proteínas poliQ nos neurónios, uma vez que a transparência das suas 959 células (das quais 302 são neurónios) facilita a deteção de proteínas fluorescentes in vivo. Para além disso, esta espécie tem um ciclo de vida curto, é económica e de fácil manutenção. Neste trabalho testámos no nosso modelo transgénico da DMJ com 130Qs em C.elegans dois compostos potencialmente moduladores da agregação da ATXN3 mutante e da resultante disfunção neurológica, atuando pela via da autofagia. De modo a validar a possível importância terapêutica da ativação da autofagia os compostos candidatos escolhidos foram o Litío e o análogo da Rapamicina CCI-779, testados independentemente e em combinação. A neuroproteção conferida pelo Litío e pelo CCI-779 independentemente sugere que o uso destes fármacos possa ser considerado uma boa estratégia como terapia para a DMJ, a testar em organismos evolutivamente mais próximos do humano. A manipulação da autofagia, segundo vários autores, parece ser benéfica e pode ser a chave para o desenvolvimento de novos tratamentos para várias doenças relacionadas com a agregação proteica e o envelhecimento.

Economia social, pilar de um novo modelo de desenvolvimento económico sustentável

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientada por Dr.ª Alcina Portugal Dias

Prevalência e impacte da incontinência urinária e stresse. Antes e durante a gravidez

Introdução: A Incontinência Urinária (IU) feminina é um importante problema de saúde pública, quer pela sua elevada prevalência, quer pelo elevado impacte físico, psíquico e social na vida da mulher. O objectivo deste estudo foi determinar a prevalência, o impacte da Incontinência Urinária de Stresse (IUS) antes e durante a gravidez em parturientes do distrito de Viana do Castelo e determinar a percentagem de mulheres que procura apoio de um profissional de saúde para o seu problema. Método: Realizou-se um estudo transversal considerando uma amostra representativa do distrito, constituída por 336 mulheres, cujo parto ocorreu no Hospital de Santa Luzia, no período compreendido entre 15 de Janeiro a 29 de Março de 2002. Todas as mulheres foram submetidas a um questionário no pós-parto hospitalar. Resultados: A prevalência da IUS, definida como Alguma vez teve perda de urina durante a realização de um esforço? foi de 5,4% (IC 95%: 3,0-7,8) antes da gravidez e 51,5% (IC 95%: 46,1-56,9) durante a gravidez actual. Os factores associados à ocorrência da IUS antes da gravidez foram a multiparidade (OR=9,96), a presença de diabetes (OR=4,61) e obesidade (OR=4,76), e à IUS durante a gravidez foram a multiparidade (OR=1,66), a diabetes (OR=2,62) e a obstipação (OR=1,73). A grande maioria (88,9%) das mulheres com IUS sente-se incomodada por se sentir húmida, 48,5% sente-se nervosa ou ansiosa e 57,3% tem medo que os outros se apercebam do odor. Durante a gravidez, apenas menos de metade das mulheres que tiveram perdas de urina procurou apoio de um profissional de saúde, apesar de a maioria ter interesse em tratar o problema. Conclusões: A IUS afecta um grande número de mulheres deste distrito antes e durante a gravidez. A IUS tem reflexos em várias dimensões da saúde, sendo o bem-estar físico e emocional os mais afectados, mas apenas uma pequena percentagem de mulheres revela o seu problema de IUS a um profissional de saúde. Perante esta evidência tornase importante que os profissionais de saúde conheçam esta realidade e se preocupem em dar resposta a estes problemas de saúde.

HIV infection and AIDS in a small municipality in Southeast Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Studies on the aspects of HIV infection in small Brazilian municipalities are invaluable to appropriately design control strategies, better allocate resources, and improve health care services. The objective of the study was to assess the clinical and epidemiological aspects of HIV infection in a small municipality. METHODS: A descriptive study was carried out in Miracema, a small municipality in the northwestern area of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between July 1999 and December 2003. All HIV-infected adult patients followed up at the local HIV/AIDS Program were included. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics were prospectively assessed through standardized questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 65 adult patients who attended the local HIV/AIDS Program were analyzed. Most (34) were women (male to female ratio: 0.9). An absolute predominance of patients who were born in Miracema or neighboring municipalities (94%), lived in Miracema (90.7%), were single (70.8%), attributed the acquisition of HIV infection to unprotected heterosexual intercourse (72.3%) and had a past history of snorting cocaine (27.7) was found Central nervous system disorders (including five cases of cryptococcal meningitis) and acute pulmonary pneumocystosis-like respiratory failure were major causes of morbidity. Most patients (56.9%) were at presented in advanced stages of HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: The predominance of patients on advanced stages of HIV infection suggest the existence of a large pool of undiagnosed cases in the community. A major feature of the cohort was an inverted male to female ratio. Further investigations over a broader geographic area are urgently needed for better understanding the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of HIV infection in small Brazilian municipalities and rural areas.

Efficiency Measures in the Agricultural Sector: With Applications

Copyright 2013 Springer Netherlands.

A importância do relacionamento bancário no financiamento das PME

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Entrepreneurship Strategies in Family and Non-family Businesses

The goal of the present paper is to analyse the classic entrepreneurship strategies (Innovation, Risk and Proactivity) in small and medium-sized businesses. However as presented in the title, the study will go further by comparing the results of those strategies in familiar and nonfamiliar businesses. This study was carried on in construction and industry sectors, in the region of Vale do Sousa, in the north of Portugal. In order to classify businesses as familiar or non-familiar types two criterion were adopted: (1) Management Control, (2) Family Employability. On the opposite to some studies that present a larger percentage of familiar businesses in national and European entrepreneurial fabric, the criterion used leaded to a larger number of non-familiar businesses (53%). The results showed that in general SMEs in this region are not following entrepreneurship strategies. Analysing the entire sample without a separation of businesses by nature (familiar/non-familiar) only proactivity showed to be more present in the managerial decisions. There is a lack of innovation and risk culture. Comparing the groups only on proactivity tests was possible to verify some differences. It was concluded that non-familiar businesses are more proactive than familiar ones. Between those groups there are no statistical differences on the means of the variables innovation and risk. At the same time some tests were conducted to test the differences on the variable entrepreneurship. The results were similar to innovation and risk strategies: There are no significant differences on entrepreneurship between these groups of businesses.

Mass-degenerate Higgs bosons at 125 GeV in the two-Higgs-doublet model

The analysis of the Higgs boson data by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations appears to exhibit an excess of h -> gamma gamma events above the Standard Model (SM) expectations, whereas no significant excess is observed in h -> ZZ* -> four lepton events, albeit with large statistical uncertainty due to the small data sample. These results (assuming they persist with further data) could be explained by a pair of nearly mass-degenerate scalars, one of which is an SM-like Higgs boson and the other is a scalar with suppressed couplings to W+W- and ZZ. In the two-Higgs-doublet model, the observed gamma gamma and ZZ* -> four lepton data can be reproduced by an approximately degenerate CP-even (h) and CP-odd (A) Higgs boson for values of sin (beta - alpha) near unity and 0: 70 less than or similar to tan beta less than or similar to 1. An enhanced gamma gamma signal can also arise in cases where m(h) similar or equal to m(H), m(H) similar or equal to m(A), or m(h) similar or equal to m(H) similar or equal to m(A). Since the ZZ* -> 4 leptons signal derives primarily from an SM-like Higgs boson whereas the gamma gamma signal receives contributions from two (or more) nearly mass-degenerate states, one would expect a slightly different invariant mass peak in the ZZ* -> four lepton and gamma gamma channels. The phenomenological consequences of such models can be tested with additional Higgs data that will be collected at the LHC in the near future. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevD.87.055009.

Analysing organochlorine pesticides in strawberry jams using GC-ECD, GC-MS/MS and QuEChERS sample preparation

This paper describes a comparison of adaptations of the QuEChERS (quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged and safe) approach for the determination of 14 organochlorine pesticide (OCP) residues in strawberry jam by concurrent use of gas chromatography (GC) coupled to electron capture detector (ECD) and GC tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). Three versions were tested based on the original QuEChERS method. The results were good (overall average of 89% recoveries with 15% RSD) using the ultrasonic bath at five spiked levels. Performance characteristics, such as accuracy, precision, linear range, limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ), were determined for each pesticide. LOD ranged from 0.8 to 8.9 microg kg-1 ; LOQ was in the range of 2.5–29.8 microg kg- 1; and calibration curves were linear (r2>0.9970) in the whole range of the explored concentrations (5–100 microg kg- 1). The LODs of these pesticides were much lower than the maximum residue levels (MRLs) allowed in Europe for strawberries. The method was successfully applied to the quantification of OCP in commercially available jams. The OCPs were detected lower than the LOD.