Simultaneous optimisation of structural topology and material grading using level set method

Peer reviewed

The simultaneous extraction of multiple social categories from unfamiliar faces

The research was supported by an award from the Experimental Psychology Society's Small Grant scheme.

The simultaneous extraction of multiple social categories from unfamiliar faces

The research was supported by an award from the Experimental Psychology Society's Small Grant scheme.

Simultaneous material and structural optimization by multiscale topology optimization

Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge the support from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, grant number EP/M002322/1. The authors would also like to thank Numerical Analysis Group at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory for their FORTRAN HSL packages (HSL, a collection of Fortran codes for large-scale scientific computation. See http://www.hsl.rl.ac.uk/).

Strong inference from transect sign surveys : combining spatial autocorrelation and misclassification occupancy models to quantify the detectability of a recovering carnivore

Funding — Forest Enterprise Scotland and the University of Aberdeen provided funding for the project. The Carnegie Trust supported the lead author, E. McHenry, in this research through the award of a tuition fees bursary.

Simultaneous Interpreter at the United Nations Jeanette Morrison

Inscriptions: Verso: [stamped] Photograph by Freda Leinwand. [463 West Street, Studio 229G, New York, NY 10014].

Simultaneous observation of current oscillations and porous film growth during anodization of InP

The observation of spontaneous oscillations in current during the anodization of InP in relatively high concentrations of KOH electrolytes is reported. Oscillations were observed under potential sweep and constant potential conditions. Well-defined oscillations are observed during linear potential sweeps of InP in 5 mol dm-3 KOH to potentials above ∼1.7 V (SCE) at scan rates in the range of 50 to 500 mV s-1. The oscillations observed exhibit an asymmetrical current versus potential profile, and the charge per cycle was found to increase linearly with potential. More complex oscillatory behavior was observed under constant potential conditions. Periodic damped oscillations are observed in high concentrations of electrolyte whereas undamped sinusoidal oscillations are observed in relatively lower concentrations. In both cases, the anodization of InP results in porous InP formation, and the current in the oscillatory region corresponds to the cyclical effective area changes due to pitting dissolution of the InP surface with the coincidental growth of a thick porous In2O3 film.

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

Bayesian Emulation for Sequential Modeling, Inference and Decision Analysis

The advances in three related areas of state-space modeling, sequential Bayesian learning, and decision analysis are addressed, with the statistical challenges of scalability and associated dynamic sparsity. The key theme that ties the three areas is Bayesian model emulation: solving challenging analysis/computational problems using creative model emulators. This idea defines theoretical and applied advances in non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space modeling, dynamic sparsity, decision analysis and statistical computation, across linked contexts of multivariate time series and dynamic networks studies. Examples and applications in financial time series and portfolio analysis, macroeconomics and internet studies from computational advertising demonstrate the utility of the core methodological innovations.

Chapter 1 summarizes the three areas/problems and the key idea of emulating in those areas. Chapter 2 discusses the sequential analysis of latent threshold models with use of emulating models that allows for analytical filtering to enhance the efficiency of posterior sampling. Chapter 3 examines the emulator model in decision analysis, or the synthetic model, that is equivalent to the loss function in the original minimization problem, and shows its performance in the context of sequential portfolio optimization. Chapter 4 describes the method for modeling the steaming data of counts observed on a large network that relies on emulating the whole, dependent network model by independent, conjugate sub-models customized to each set of flow. Chapter 5 reviews those advances and makes the concluding remarks.

Theranostic Fibers for Simultaneous Imaging and Drug Delivery

New methods for creating theranostic systems with simultaneous encapsulation of therapeutic, diagnostic, and targeting agents are much sought after. This work reports for the first time the use of coaxial electrospinning to prepare such systems in the form of core–shell fibers. Eudragit S100 was used to form the shell of the fibers, while the core comprised poly(ethylene oxide) loaded with the magnetic resonance contrast agent Gd(DTPA) (Gd(III) diethylenetriaminepentaacetate hydrate) and indomethacin as a model therapeutic agent. The fibers had linear cylindrical morphologies with clear core–shell structures, as demonstrated by electron microscopy. X-ray diffraction and differential scanning calorimetry proved that both indomethacin and Gd(DTPA) were present in the fibers in the amorphous physical form. This is thought to be a result of intermolecular interactions between the different components, the presence of which was suggested by infrared spectroscopy. In vitro dissolution tests indicated that the fibers could provide targeted release of the active ingredients through a combined mechanism of erosion and diffusion. The proton relaxivities for Gd(DTPA) released from the fibers into tris buffer increased (r1 = 4.79–9.75 s–1 mM–1; r2 = 7.98–14.22 s–1 mM–1) compared with fresh Gd(DTPA) (r1 = 4.13 s–1 mM–1 and r2 = 4.40 s–1 mM–1), which proved that electrospinning has not diminished the contrast properties of the complex. The new systems reported herein thus offer a new platform for delivering therapeutic and imaging agents simultaneously to the colon.

A Simultaneous Equation Approach to Estimating HIV Prevalence with Non-Ignorable Missing Responses

Estimates of HIV prevalence are important for policy in order to establish the health status of a country's population and to evaluate the effectiveness of population-based interventions and campaigns. However, participation rates in testing for surveillance conducted as part of household surveys, on which many of these estimates are based, can be low. HIV positive individuals may be less likely to participate because they fear disclosure, in which case estimates obtained using conventional approaches to deal with missing data, such as imputation-based methods, will be biased. We develop a Heckman-type simultaneous equation approach which accounts for non-ignorable selection, but unlike previous implementations, allows for spatial dependence and does not impose a homogeneous selection process on all respondents. In addition, our framework addresses the issue of separation, where for instance some factors are severely unbalanced and highly predictive of the response, which would ordinarily prevent model convergence. Estimation is carried out within a penalized likelihood framework where smoothing is achieved using a parametrization of the smoothing criterion which makes estimation more stable and efficient. We provide the software for straightforward implementation of the proposed approach, and apply our methodology to estimating national and sub-national HIV prevalence in Swaziland, Zimbabwe and Zambia.

Hyperspectral unmixing with simultaneous dimensionality estimation

This paper is an elaboration of the simplex identification via split augmented Lagrangian (SISAL) algorithm (Bioucas-Dias, 2009) to blindly unmix hyperspectral data. SISAL is a linear hyperspectral unmixing method of the minimum volume class. This method solve a non-convex problem by a sequence of augmented Lagrangian optimizations, where the positivity constraints, forcing the spectral vectors to belong to the convex hull of the endmember signatures, are replaced by soft constraints. With respect to SISAL, we introduce a dimensionality estimation method based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is illustrated with simulated and real data.

Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Multi-Type Markov Branching Processes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08