Our future is at risk: Disclose the Trans-Pacific Partnership now

Christmas has come early this year for big corporations. Wikileaks has revealed that the Trans-Pacific Partnership contains a swag of corporate gifts and baubles. The leaked intellectual property chapter of the TPP looks like it has been dictated by the United States Chamber of Commerce. Among other things, the agreement seeks to provide for longer and stronger copyright protection for transnational corporations. - See more at: https://newmatilda.com/2013/11/15/our-future-risk-disclose-tpp-now#sthash.axbmON9X.dpuf

Evaluating and predicting overall process risk using event logs

Companies standardise and automate their business processes in order to improve process eff ciency and minimise operational risks. However, it is di fficult to eliminate all process risks during the process design stage due to the fact that processes often run in complex and changeable environments and rely on human resources. Timely identification of process risks is crucial in order to insure the achievement of process goals. Business processes are often supported by information systems that record information about their executions in event logs. In this article we present an approach and a supporting tool for the evaluation of the overall process risk and for the prediction of process outcomes based on the analysis of information recorded in event logs. It can help managers evaluate the overall risk exposure of their business processes, track the evolution of overall process risk, identify changes and predict process outcomes based on the current value of overall process risk. The approach was implemented and validated using synthetic event logs and through a case study with a real event log.

Common Alzheimer's disease risk variant within the CLU gene affects white matter microstructure in young adults

There is a strong genetic risk for late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD), but so far few gene variants have been identified that reliably contribute to that risk. A newly confirmed genetic risk allele C of the clusterin (CLU) gene variant rs11136000 is carried by ~88% of Caucasians. The C allele confers a 1.16 greater odds of developing late-onset AD than the T allele. AD patients have reductions in regional white matter integrity. We evaluated whether the CLU risk variant was similarly associated with lower white matter integrity in healthy young humans. Evidence of early brain differences would offer a target for intervention decades before symptom onset. We scanned 398 healthy young adults (mean age, 23.6 ± 2.2 years) with diffusion tensor imaging, a variation of magnetic resonance imaging sensitive to white matter integrity in the living brain. We assessed genetic associations using mixed-model regression at each point in the brain to map the profile of these associations with white matter integrity. Each C allele copy of the CLUvariant was associated with lower fractional anisotropy-a widely accepted measure of white matter integrity-in multiple brain regions, including several known to degenerate in AD. These regions included the splenium of the corpus callosum, the fornix, cingulum, and superior and inferior longitudinal fasciculi in both brain hemispheres. Young healthy carriers of the CLU gene risk variant showed a distinct profile of lower white matter integrity that may increase vulnerability to developing AD later in life.

Alzheimer's disease risk gene, GAB2, is associated with regional brain volume differences in 755 young healthy twins

The development of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) is under strong genetic control and there is great interest in the genetic variants that confer increased risk. The Alzheimer's disease risk gene, growth factor receptor bound protein 2-associated protein (GAB2), has been shown to provide a 1.27- 1.51 increased odds of developing LOAD for rs7101429 major allele carriers, in case-control analysis. GAB2 is expressed across the brain throughout life, and its role in LOAD pathology is well understood. Recent studies have begun to examine the effect of genetic variation in the GAB2 gene on differences in the brain. However, the effect of GAB2 on the young adult brain has yet to be considered. Here we found a significant association between the GAB2 gene and morphological brain differences in 755 young adult twins (469 females) (M = 23.1, SD = 3.1 years), using a gene-based test with principal components regression (PCReg). Detectable differences in brain morphology are therefore associated with variation in the GAB2 gene, even in young adults, long before the typical age of onset of Alzheimer's disease.

Quantitative and qualitative impairments in semantic fluency, but not phonetic fluency, as a potential risk factor for Alzheimer's disease

Qualitative aspects of verbal fluency may be more useful in discerning the precise cause of any quantitative deficits in phonetic or category fluency, especially in the case of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a possible intermediate stage between normal performance and Alzheimer's disease (AD). The aim of this study was to use both quantitative and qualitative (switches and clusters) methods to compare the phonetic and category verbal fluency performance of elderly adults with no cognitive impairment (n = 51), significant memory impairment (n = 16), and AD (n = 16). As expected, the AD group displayed impairments in all quantitative and qualitative measures of the two fluency tasks relative to their age- and education-matched peers. By contrast, the amnestic MCI group produced fewer animal names on the semantic fluency task than controls and showed normal performance on the phonetic fluency task. The MCI group's inferior category fluency performance was associated with a deficit in their category-switching rate rather than word cluster size. Overall, the results indicate that a semantic measure such as category fluency when used in conjunction with a test of episodic memory may increase the sensitivity for detecting preclinical AD. Future research using external cues and other measures of set shifting capacity may assist in clarifying the origin of the amnestic MCI-specific category-switching deficiency. Copyright

Addressing the road trauma burden in China: Exploring attitudes, behaviours, risk perceptions and cultural uniqueness

As China continues to motorise rapidly, solutions are needed to reduce the burden of road trauma that is spread inequitably across the community. Little is currently known about how new drivers are trained to deal with on-road challenges, and little is also known about the perceptions, behaviours and attitudes of road users in China. This paper reports on a pilot study conducted in a driver retraining facility in one Chinese city where people who have had their licence suspended for accrual of 12 demerit points in a one year period must attend compulsory retraining in order to regain their licence. A sample of 239 suspended drivers responded to an anonymous questionnaire that sought information about preferred driving speeds and perceptions of safe driving speeds across two speed zones. Responses indicated that speeds higher than the posted limits were commonly reported, and that there was incongruence between preferred and safe speeds, such that a greater proportion of drivers reported preferred speeds that were substantially faster than what were reported as safe speeds. Participants with more driving experience reported significantly fewer crashes than newly licensed drivers (less than 2 years licensed) but no differences were found in offences when compared across groups with different levels of driving experience. Perceptions of risky behaviours were assessed by asking participants to describe what they considered to be the most dangerous on-road behaviours. Speeding and drink driving were the most commonly reported by far, followed by issues such as fatigue, ignoring traffic rules, not obeying traffic rules, phone use while driving, and non-use of seatbelts, which attracted an extremely low response which seems consistent with previously reported low belt wearing rates, unfavourable attitudes towards seatbelt use, and low levels of enforcement. Finally, observations about culturally specific considerations are made from previous research conducted by the authors and others. Specifically, issues of saving face and the importance and pervasiveness of social networks and social influence are discussed with particular regard to how any future countermeasures need to be informed by a thorough understanding of Chinese customs and culture.

How religiosity influences consumption: The impact of consumer religiosity on perceptions of psychological and social risk

For some people, religion is an important influence in decision-making. This thesis investigates the relationship between the religiosity of consumers and their perceived risk in adopting new products. Two studies gathered data from religious consumers living in Saudi Arabia, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA. The results confirm the significant impact of religion on perceived risk, and suggest why this may lead to delays in adoption. Theoretically, these studies provide a better explanation of how religion influences consumption decisions, and offer brand managers options to improve the adoption of new products in religious markets.

Assessment of the risk of failure of high voltage substations due to environmental conditions and pollution on insulators

Pollution on electrical insulators is one of the greatest causes of failure of substations subjected to high levels of salinity and environmental pollution. Considering leakage current as the main indicator of pollution on insulators, this paper focus on establishing the effect of the environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators and determining the significant change in the magnitude of the pollution on the insulators during dry and humid periods. Hierarchical segmentation analysis was used to establish the effect of environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators. The Kruskal-Wallis test was utilized to determine the significant changes in the magnitude of the pollution due to climate periods. An important result was the discovery that leakage current was more common on insulators during dry periods than humid ones. There was also a higher risk of failure due to pollution during dry periods. During the humid period, various temperatures and wind directions produced a small change in the risk of failure. As a technical result, operators of electrical substations can now identify the cause of an increase in risk of failure due to pollution in the area. The research provides a contribution towards the behaviour of the leakage current under conditions similar to those of the Colombian Caribbean coast and how they affect the risk of failure of the substation due to pollution.

An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

Dementia and the population health approach: Promise, pitfalls and progress. An Australian perspective

The increasing prevalence of dementia in Australia (and worldwide) over the next few decades poses enormous social, health and economic challenges. In the absence of a cure, strategies to prevent, delay the onset of, or reduce the impact of dementia are required to contain a growing disease burden, and health and care costs. A population health approach has the potential to substantially reduce the impact of dementia. Internationally, many countries have started to adopt population health strategies that incorporate elements of dementia prevention. The authors examine some of the elements of such an approach and barriers to its implementation. International dementia frameworks and strategies were reviewed to identify options utilized for a population health approach to dementia. Internationally and nationally, dementia frameworks are being developed that include population health approaches. Most of the frameworks identified included early diagnosis and intervention, and increasing community awareness as key objectives, while several included promotion of the links between a healthy lifestyle and reduced risk for dementia. A poor evidence base (especially for illness prevention), diagnostic and technical limitations, and policy and implementation issues are significant barriers in maximizing the promise of population health approaches in this area. The review and analysis of the population health approach to dementia will inform national and jurisdictional policy development.

Defining anthropometric cut-off levels related to metabolic risk in a group of Sri Lankan children

Background: Body mass index (BMI) is widely used as a measure of adiposity. However, currently used cut-off values are not sensitive in diagnosing obesity in South Asian populations. Aim: To define BMI and waist circumference (WC), cut-off values representing percentage fat mass (%FM) associated with adverse health outcomes. Subjects and methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study of 285 5–14 year old Sri Lankan children (56% boys) was carried out. Fat mass (FM) was assessed using the isotope (D2O) dilution technique based on 2C body composition model. BMI and WC cut-off values were defined based on %FM associated with adverse health outcomes. Results: Sri Lankan children had a low fat free mass index (FFMI) and a high fat mass index (FMI). Individuals with the same BMI had %FM distributed over a wide range. Lean body tissue grew very little with advancing age and weight gain was mainly due to increases in body fat. BMI corresponding to 25% in males and 35% in females at 18 years was 19.2 kg/m2 and 19.7 kg/m2, respectively. WC cut-off values for males and females were 68.4 cm and 70.4 cm, respectively. Conclusion: This chart analysis clearly confirms that Sri Lankan children have a high %FM from a young age. With age, more changes occur in FM than in fat free mass (FFM). Although the newly defined BMI and WC cut-off values appear to be quite low, they are comparable to some recent data obtained in similar populations.

Eccentric knee-flexor strength and risk of hamstring injuries in Rugby Union: A prospective study

BACKGROUND Hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) represent the most common cause of lost playing time in rugby union. Eccentric knee-flexor weakness and between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength are associated with a heightened risk of hamstring injury in other sports; however these variables have not been explored in rugby union. PURPOSE To determine if lower levels of eccentric knee-flexor strength or greater between-limb imbalance in this parameter during the Nordic hamstring exercise are risk-factors for hamstring strain injury in rugby union. STUDY DESIGN Cohort study; level of evidence, 3. METHODS This prospective study was conducted over the 2014 Super Rugby and Queensland Rugby Union seasons. In total, 178 rugby union players (age, 22.6 ± 3.8 years; height, 185 ± 6.8 cm; mass, 96.5 ± 13.1 kg) had their eccentric knee-flexor strength assessed using a custom-made device during the pre-season. Reports of previous hamstring, quadriceps, groin, calf and anterior cruciate ligament injury were also obtained. The main outcome measure was prospective occurrence of hamstring strain injury. RESULTS Twenty players suffered at least one hamstring strain during the study period. Players with a history of hamstring strain injury had 4.1 fold (RR = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.9 to 8.9, p = 0.001) greater risk of subsequent hamstring injury than players without such history. Between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength of ≥ 15% and ≥ 20% increased the risk of hamstring strain injury 2.4 fold (RR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.1 to 5.5, p = 0.033) and 3.4 fold (RR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.6, p = 0.003), respectively. Lower eccentric knee flexor strength and other prior injuries were not associated with increased risk of future hamstring strain. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that the risk of re-injury was augmented in players with strength imbalances. CONCLUSION Previous hamstring strain injury and between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength were associated with an increased risk of future hamstring strain injury in rugby union. These results support the rationale for reducing imbalance, particularly in players who have suffered a prior hamstring injury, to mitigate the risk of future injury.

Is there evidence to support the use of the angle of peak torque as a marker of hamstring injury and re-injury risk?

Hamstring strain injuries are the predominant injury in many sports, costing athletes and clubs a significant financial and performance burden. Therefore the ability to identify and intervene with individuals who are considered at a high risk of injury is important. One measure which has grown in popularity as an outcome variable following hamstring intervention/prevention studies and rehabilitation is the angle of peak knee flexor torque. This current opinion article will firstly introduce the measure and the processes behind it. Secondly, this article will summarise how the angle of peak knee flexor torque has been suggested to measure hamstring strain injury risk. Finally various limitations will be presented and outlined as to how they may influence the measure. These include the lack of muscle specificity, the common concentric contraction mode of assessment, reliability of the measure, various neural contributions (such as rate of force development and neuromuscular inhibition) as well as the lack of prospective data showing any predictive value in the measure.

Genome-wide association study using extreme truncate selection identifies novel genes affecting bone mineral density and fracture risk

Osteoporotic fracture is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Low bone mineral density (BMD) is a major predisposing factor to fracture and is known to be highly heritable. Site-, gender-, and age-specific genetic effects on BMD are thought to be significant, but have largely not been considered in the design of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of BMD to date. We report here a GWAS using a novel study design focusing on women of a specific age (postmenopausal women, age 55-85 years), with either extreme high or low hip BMD (age- and gender-adjusted BMD z-scores of +1.5 to +4.0, n = 1055, or -4.0 to -1.5, n = 900), with replication in cohorts of women drawn from the general population (n = 20,898). The study replicates 21 of 26 known BMD-associated genes. Additionally, we report suggestive association of a further six new genetic associations in or around the genes CLCN7, GALNT3, IBSP, LTBP3, RSPO3, and SOX4, with replication in two independent datasets. A novel mouse model with a loss-of-function mutation in GALNT3 is also reported, which has high bone mass, supporting the involvement of this gene in BMD determination. In addition to identifying further genes associated with BMD, this study confirms the efficiency of extreme-truncate selection designs for quantitative trait association studies. © 2011 Duncan et al.

WNT16 influences bone mineral density, cortical bone thickness, bone strength, and osteoporotic fracture risk

We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with cortical bone thickness (CBT) and bone mineral density (BMD) by performing two separate genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses for CBT in 3 cohorts comprising 5,878 European subjects and for BMD in 5 cohorts comprising 5,672 individuals. We then assessed selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for osteoporotic fracture in 2,023 cases and 3,740 controls. Association with CBT and forearm BMD was tested for ~2.5 million SNPs in each cohort separately, and results were meta-analyzed using fixed effect meta-analysis. We identified a missense SNP (Thr>Ile; rs2707466) located in the WNT16 gene (7q31), associated with CBT (effect size of -0.11 standard deviations [SD] per C allele, P = 6.2×10-9). This SNP, as well as another nonsynonymous SNP rs2908004 (Gly>Arg), also had genome-wide significant association with forearm BMD (-0.14 SD per C allele, P = 2.3×10-12, and -0.16 SD per G allele, P = 1.2×10-15, respectively). Four genome-wide significant SNPs arising from BMD meta-analysis were tested for association with forearm fracture. SNP rs7776725 in FAM3C, a gene adjacent to WNT16, was associated with a genome-wide significant increased risk of forearm fracture (OR = 1.33, P = 7.3×10-9), with genome-wide suggestive signals from the two missense variants in WNT16 (rs2908004: OR = 1.22, P = 4.9×10-6 and rs2707466: OR = 1.22, P = 7.2×10-6). We next generated a homozygous mouse with targeted disruption of Wnt16. Female Wnt16-/- mice had 27% (P<0.001) thinner cortical bones at the femur midshaft, and bone strength measures were reduced between 43%-61% (6.5×10-13<P<5.9×10-4) at both femur and tibia, compared with their wild-type littermates. Natural variation in humans and targeted disruption in mice demonstrate that WNT16 is an important determinant of CBT, BMD, bone strength, and risk of fracture. © 2012 Zheng et al.