992 resultados para retrospective forecast test


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Understanding and anticipating biological invasions can focus either on traits that favour species invasiveness or on features of the receiving communities, habitats or landscapes that promote their invasibility. Here, we address invasibility at the regional scale, testing whether some habitats and landscapes are more invasible than others by fitting models that relate alien plant species richness to various environmental predictors. We use a multi-model information-theoretic approach to assess invasibility by modelling spatial and ecological patterns of alien invasion in landscape mosaics and testing competing hypotheses of environmental factors that may control invasibility. Because invasibility may be mediated by particular characteristics of invasiveness, we classified alien species according to their C-S-R plant strategies. We illustrate this approach with a set of 86 alien species in Northern Portugal. We first focus on predictors influencing species richness and expressing invasibility and then evaluate whether distinct plant strategies respond to the same or different groups of environmental predictors. We confirmed climate as a primary determinant of alien invasions and as a primary environmental gradient determining landscape invasibility. The effects of secondary gradients were detected only when the area was sub-sampled according to predictions based on the primary gradient. Then, multiple predictor types influenced patterns of alien species richness, with some types (landscape composition, topography and fire regime) prevailing over others. Alien species richness responded most strongly to extreme land management regimes, suggesting that intermediate disturbance induces biotic resistance by favouring native species richness. Land-use intensification facilitated alien invasion, whereas conservation areas hosted few invaders, highlighting the importance of ecosystem stability in preventing invasions. Plants with different strategies exhibited different responses to environmental gradients, particularly when the variations of the primary gradient were narrowed by sub-sampling. Such differential responses of plant strategies suggest using distinct control and eradication approaches for different areas and alien plant groups.

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INTRODUCTION: This study is a retrospective analysis of ureteral complications and their management from a monocenter series of 277 consecutive renal transplantations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From September 1979 to June 1999, 277 renal transplantations (cadaveric origin) were performed in 241 patients. The ureter from the kidney graft was inserted into the bladder according to the technique of extravesical implantation described by Lich-Gregoir and Campos-Freire. The study analyzed the time of occurrence and the type of complications observed. The different procedures to restore the transplanted urinary tract are presented. RESULTS: Complications occurred in 43/277 renal transplantations (15.5%). Anastomotic urine leakage or ureteral stricture were the most frequent. The time to appearance of these complications was either short (<1 month) or late (>1 month) in a similar number of cases. Most cases were managed surgically: 33/43 cases (76.7%). The most frequent surgical repair was ureterovesical reimplantation (n=13), followed by: ureteroureteral end-to-end anastomosis (native ureter-ureter transplant, n=5); pyeloureteral anastomosis (native ureter-renal pelvis transplant, n=5); simple revision of ureterovesical implantation (n=4); resection and end-to-end anastomosis of the transplant ureter (n=2); calico-vesicostomy (graft-bladder, n=1); implantation according to Boari (n=1); pyelovesicostomy with bipartition of bladder (n=1), and pyeloileocystoplasty with detubularized ileal graft (n=1). No deaths related to any of the urological complications were reported. However, 2 consecutive vesico-renal refluxes led to the loss of the kidney graft in the long-term. CONCLUSION: The rate of complications observed in this retrospective analysis is similar to the experience of other studies, ranging from 2 to 20%. If the classical extravesical ureteral bladder implantation is to remain an attractive technique due to its simplicity, the surgical team at the training center should be aware of all the means to prevent any ureteral complications, such as the choice of another implantation technique and/or insertion of a transient ureteral stent.

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Objectives: Total ankle replacement (TAR) is increasingly used for treatment of primary or posttraumatic arthritis of the ankle joint, if joint movement is intended to be preserved. Data on characteristics and treatment of ankle prosthetic joint infection (PJI) is limited and no validated therapeutic algorithm exist. Therefore, we analyzed all infections, which occurred in a cohort of implanted ankle prostheses during a 5-year-period.Methods: Between 06/2004 and 12/2008, all patients with an implanted ankle prosthesis at our institution were retrospectively reviewed. All patients were operated by the same surgical team. Ankle PJI was defined as visible purulence, acute inflammation on histopathology, sinus tract, or microbial growth in periprosthetic tissue or sonication fluid of the removed prosthesis. The surgery on the infected ankle prosthesis and the follow-up were performed by the surgical team, who implanted the prosthesis. A specialized septic team consisting of an orthopaedic surgeon and infectious diseases consultant were included in the treatment.Results: During the study period, 92 total ankle prostheses were implanted in 90 patients (mean age 61 years, range 28-80 years). 78 patients had posttraumatic arthritis, 11 rheumatoid arthritis and 3 other degenerative disorder. Ankle PJI occurred in 3 of 92 TAR (3.3%), occurring 1, 2 and 24 months after implantation; the causative organisms were Enterobacter cloacae, Streptococcus pyogenes and Staphylococcus epidermidis, respectively. The ankle prosthesis was removed in all infected patients, including debridement of the surrounding tissue was debrided and insertion of an antibiotic loaded spacer. Provisional arthrodesis was performed by external fixation in two patients and by plaster cast in one. A definitive ankle arthrodesis with a retrograde nail was performed 6 to 8 weeks after prosthesis removal. One patient needed a flap coverage. All 3 patients received intravenous antibiotic treatment for 2 weeks, followed by oral antibiotics for 4-6 weeks. At follow-up visit up to 18 months after start of treatment, all patients were without clinical or laboratory signs of infection.Conclusions: The infection incidence after TAR was 3.3%, which is slightly higher than reported after hip (<1%) or knee arthroplasty (<2%). A two-step approach consisting of removal of the infected prosthesis, combined with local and systemic antibiotic treatment, followed by definitive ankle arthrodesis shows good results. Larger patient cohort and longer follow-up evaluation is needed to define the optimal treatment approach for ankle PJI.

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Early detection of neural-tude defects is possible by determining Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in maternal serum. 16'685 pregnant women were observed. Three methods for the determination of the "normal" range are compared. The first one, already used in similar studies, makes use of a constant multiple of the median. The other two ones make use of robust estimates of location and scale. Their comparison shows the interest of the robust methods to reduce the interlaboratory variability.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the clinical performance of glass-ceramic/zirconia crowns fabricated using intraoral digital impressions - a retrospective study with a three-year follow-up. METHODS: 70 consecutive patients with a total of 86 glass-ceramic/zirconia crowns were treated by a single clinician using standardized clinical and laboratory protocols. A complete digital workflow was adopted for the purpose except for the veneering procedure for the glass-ceramic crowns. Occlusal adjustments were made before the ceramic glazing procedure. Before cementation, all abutments where carefully cleaned with a 70% alcoholic solution and air dried. Cementation was performed using dual-curing, self-adhesive resin cement. Patients were re-examined after 12, 24 and 36 months, to assess crown chipping/fractures. RESULTS: After the three-year follow-up, none of the zirconia-based restoration was lost ("apparent" survival rate 100%) otherwise, the chipping rate of the veneering material increased from 9.3% after 12 months, to 14% after 24 months to 30.2% after 36 months. As a consequence, the "real" success rate after 3 years was 69.8%. CONCLUSIONS: After 3 years the success rate of zirconia-based crowns was 69.8%, while the incidence of the chipping was 30.2%. Assuming an exponential increase in chipping rate between 12 and 36 months it can be argued that, among others, the fatigue-mechanism could be advocated as the main factor for the failure of glass-ceramic veneered zirconia especially after 24 months.

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Le but de cette étude est de répondre aux 3 questions suivantes: - 1) Le test de MAST est-il applicable, dans sa traduction française, à la population d'un service de médecine interne d'un hôpital universitaire en Suisse romande ? - 2) Le test de MAST apporte-t-il des résultats concordants avec le diagnostic clinique d'une part, et avec les résultats tirés de la littérature d'autre part ? - 3) De quelles façons peut-on définir et choisir deux valeurs critiques du test afin d'optimaliser l'utilisation du test de MAST dans l'étude comparative projetée ? ANNEXE: Traduction littérale en langue française du : "Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test" (MAST); etc.

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Several methods and algorithms have recently been proposed that allow for the systematic evaluation of simple neuron models from intracellular or extracellular recordings. Models built in this way generate good quantitative predictions of the future activity of neurons under temporally structured current injection. It is, however, difficult to compare the advantages of various models and algorithms since each model is designed for a different set of data. Here, we report about one of the first attempts to establish a benchmark test that permits a systematic comparison of methods and performances in predicting the activity of rat cortical pyramidal neurons. We present early submissions to the benchmark test and discuss implications for the design of future tests and simple neurons models

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The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of malignant lymphomas in patients with long-standing primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS). We retrospectively studied a cohort of 55 patients with pSS over a mean follow-up period of 12 years. Five patients (9%) developed malignant lymphoma. The interval between the diagnoses of SS and lymphoma ranged from four to 12 years (mean = 6.5 years). The lymphoma arose in the lymph nodes in two cases, the parotid gland in one case, the lacrimal gland in one case, and the lung in one case. All five cases were B-cell low-grade lymphomas. Among our SS patients, those with extraglandular manifestations and/or a mixed cryoglobulin were at increased risk for lymphoma development. Secondary lymphoma carried a poor prognosis in our study. Three of the six SS patients who died during the follow-up period had lymphoma.

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The objective of the investigation was the development of a test that would readily identify the potential of an aggregate to cause D-cracking because of its susceptivity to critical saturation. A Press-Ur-Meter was modified by replacing the air chamber with a one-inch diameter plastic tube calibrated in milli-. It was concluded that the pore index was sufficiently reliable to determine the D-cracking potential of limestone aggregates in all but a few cases where marginal results were obtained. Consistently poor or good results were always in agreement with established service records or concrete durability testing. In those instances where marginal results are obtained, the results of concrete durability testing should be considered when making the final determination of the D-cracking susceptibility of the aggregate in question. The following applications for the pore index test have been recommended for consideration: concrete durability testing be discontinued in the evaluation process of new aggregate sources with pore index results between 0-20 (Class 2 durability) and over 35 (Class 1) durability; composite aggregates with intermediate pore index results of 20-35 be tested on each stone type to facilitate the possible removal of low durability stone from the production process; and additional investigation should be made to evaluate the possibility of using the test to monitor and upgrade the acceptance of aggregate from sources associated with D-cracking.

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The compressive strength of concrete is an important factor in the design of concrete structures and pavements. To assure the quality of the concrete placed at the project, concrete compressive cylinders are made at the jobsite. These cylinders undergo a destructive test to determine their compressive strength. However, the determination of concrete compressive strength of the concrete actually in the structure or pavement is frequently desirable. For this reason, a nondestructive test of the concrete is required. A nondestructive test of concrete compressive strength should be economical, easily performed by field personnel, and capable of producing accurate, reproducible results. The nondestructive test should be capable of detecting the extent of poor concrete in a pavement or structure due to improper handling, placement, or variations in mixing or materials.

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An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.