916 resultados para rational expectations


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The title of this book, Hard Lesson: Reflections on Crime control in Late Modernity, contains a number of clues about its general theoretical direction. It is a book concerned, fist and foremost, with the vagaries of crime control in western neo-liberal and English speaking countries. More specifically, Hard Lessons draws attention to a number of examples in which discrete populations – those who have in one way or another offended against the criminal law - have become the subjects of various forms of stare intervention, regulation and control. We are concerned most of all with the ways in which recent criminal justice policies and practices have resulted in what are variously described as unintended consequences, unforeseen outcomes, unanticipated results, counter-productive effects or negative side effects. At their simplest, such terms refer to the apparent gulf between intention and outcome; they often form the basis for considerable amount of policy reappraisal, soul searching and even nihilistic despair among the mamandirns of crime control. Unintended consequences can, of course, be both positive and negative. Occasionally, crime control measures may result in beneficial outcomes, such as the use of DNA to acquit wrongly convicted prisoners. Generally, however, unforeseen effects tend to be negative and even entirely counterproductive, and/or directly opposite to what were originally intended. All this, of course, presupposes some sort of rational, well meaning and transparent policy making process so beloved by liberal social policy theorists. Yet, as Judith Bessant points out in her chapter, this view of policy formulation tends to obscure the often covert, regulatory and downright malevolent intentions contained in many government policies and practices. Indeed, history is replete with examples of governments seeking to mask their real aims from a prying public eye. Denials and various sorts of ‘techniques of neutralisation’ serve to cloak the real or ‘underlying’ aims of the powerful (Cohen 2000). The latest crop of ‘spin doctors’ and ‘official spokespersons’ has ensured that the process of governmental obfuscation, distortion and concealment remains deeply embedded in neo-liberal forms of governance. There is little new or surprising in this; nor should we be shocked when things ‘go wrong’ in the domain of crime control since many unintended consequences are, more often than not, quite predictable. Prison riots, high rates of recidivism and breaches of supervision orders, expansion rather than contraction of control systems, laws that create the opposite of what was intended – all these are normative features of western crime control. Indeed, without the deep fault lines running between policy and outcome it would be hard to imagine what many policy makers, administrators and practitioners would do: their day to day work practices and (and incomes) are directly dependent upon emergent ‘service delivery’ problems. Despite recurrent howls of official anguish and occasional despondency it is apparent that those involved in the propping up the apparatus of crime control have a vested interest in ensuring that polices and practices remain in an enduring state of review and reform.

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Property is an evolving industry and the participants within the industry are also changing. This change is due to improved technology and construction, global nature of business today, professional standards, legal and accounting issues and environmental matters. Throughout this change in the property industry, there has also been significant change in the structure and content of tertiary property courses in Australia. Over the past ten years each first year cohort commencing study in the property program at the University of Western Sydney have been surveyed in relation to their background, reasons for course selection and job expectations. This paper will review the annual survey and the profile of all first year students who commenced their studies in the Bachelor of Business (Property Economics) degree [formerly Bachelor of Commerce (Property Economics) and Bachelor of Commerce (Land Economy)] for years commencing 1994 to 2003.

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It has been argued that intentional first year curriculum design has a critical role to play in enhancing first year student engagement, success and retention (Kift, 2008). A fundamental first year curriculum objective should be to assist students to make the successful transition to assessment in higher education. Scott (2006) has identified that ‘relevant, consistent and integrated assessment … [with] prompt and constructive feedback’ are particularly relevant to student retention generally; while Nicol (2007) suggests that ‘lack of clarity regarding expectations in the first year, low levels of teacher feedback and poor motivation’ are key issues in the first year. At the very minimum, if we expect first year students to become independent and self-managing learners, they need to be supported in their early development and acquisition of tertiary assessment literacies (Orrell, 2005). Critical to this attainment is the necessity to alleviate early anxieties around assessment information, instructions, guidance, and performance. This includes, for example:  inducting students thoroughly into the academic languages and assessment genres they will encounter as the vehicles for evidencing learning success; and  making expectations about the quality of this evidence clear. Most importantly, students should receive regular formative feedback of their work early in their program of study to aid their learning and to provide information to both students and teachers on progress and achievement. Leveraging research conducted under an ALTC Senior Fellowship that has sought to articulate a research-based 'transition pedagogy' (Kift & Nelson, 2005) – a guiding philosophy for intentional first year curriculum design and support that carefully scaffolds and mediates the first year learning experience for contemporary heterogeneous cohorts – this paper will discuss theoretical and practical strategies and examples that should be of assistance in implementing good assessment and feedback practices across a range of disciplines in the first year.

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Context The School of Information Technology at QUT has recently undertaken a major restructuring of their Bachelor of Information Technology (BIT) course. Some of the aims of this restructuring include a reduction in first year attrition and to provide an attractive degree course that meets both student and industry expectations. Emphasis has been placed on the first semester in the context of retaining students by introducing a set of four units that complement one another and provide introductory material on technology, programming and related skills, and generic skills that will aid the students throughout their undergraduate course and in their careers. This discussion relates to one of these four fist semester units, namely Building IT Systems. The aim of this unit is to create small Information Technology (IT) systems that use programming or scripting, databases as either standalone applications or web applications. In the prior history of teaching introductory computer programming at QUT, programming has been taught as a stand alone subject and integration of computer applications with other systems such as databases and networks was not undertaken until students had been given a thorough grounding in those topics as well. Feedback has indicated that students do not believe that working with a database requires programming skills. In fact, the teaching of the building blocks of computer applications have been compartmentalized and taught in isolation from each other. The teaching of introductory computer programming has been an industry requirement of IT degree courses as many jobs require at least some knowledge of the topic. Yet, computer programming is not a skill that all students have equal capabilities of learning (Bruce et al., 2004) and this is clearly shown by the volume of publications dedicated to this topic in the literature over a broad period of time (Eckerdal & Berglund, 2005; Mayer, 1981; Winslow, 1996). The teaching of this introductory material has been done pretty much the same way over the past thirty years. During this period of time that introductory computer programming courses have been taught at QUT, a number of different programming languages and programming paradigms have been used and different approaches to teaching and learning have been attempted in an effort to find the golden thread that would allow students to learn this complex topic. Unfortunately, computer programming is not a skill that can be learnt in one semester. Some basics can be learnt but it can take many years to master (Norvig, 2001). Faculty data typically has shown a bimodal distribution of results for students undertaking introductory programming courses with a high proportion of students receiving a high mark and a high proportion of students receiving a low or failing mark. This indicates that there are students who understand and excel with the introductory material while there is another group who struggle to understand the concepts and practices required to be able to translate a specification or problem statement into a computer program that achieves what is being requested. The consequence of a large group of students failing the introductory programming course has been a high level of attrition amongst first year students. This attrition level does not provide good continuity in student numbers in later years of the degree program and the current approach is not seen as sustainable.

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This paper will examine the literature on ‘anorexia nervosa’, and argue that it is underpinned by three fundamental assumptions. First, ‘anorexia nervosa’ is a reflection of the mismatch between true ‘inner self’ and the external ‘false self’, the latter self being the distorted product of a male dominated society. Second, the explanation for the severe fasting practices constitutive of ‘anorexia nervosa’ (a new social problem) is to be found within the binary opposition of resistance/conformity to contemporary cultural expectations. Finally, ‘anorexia nervosa’ is a problem which exists in nature (i.e., independently of analysis). It was eventually discovered, named and explained. This paper will problematise each of these assumptions in turn, and in doing so, it will propose an alternative way of understanding contemporary fasting practices.

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Which social perceptions and structures shape coworker reliance and contributions to team products? When people form an intercultural team, they launch a set of working relationships that may be affected by social perceptions and social structures. Social perceptions include beliefs about interpersonal similarity and also expectations of behavior based on professional and national memberships. Social structures include dyadic relationships and the patterns they form. In this study, graduate students from three cohorts were consistently more likely to rely on others with whom they had a professional relationship, while structural equivalence in the professional network had no effect. In only one of the cohorts, people were more likely to rely on others who were professionally similar to themselves. Expectations regarding professional or national groups had no effect on willingness to rely on members of those groups, but expectations regarding teammates' nations positively influenced individual contributions. Willingness to rely on one's teammates did not significantly influence individual contributions to the team. Number of professional ties to teammates increased individual contributions, and number of external ties decreased contributions. Finally, people whose professional networks included a mixture of brokerage and closure (higher ego network variance) made greater contributions to their teams.

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The movement toward evidence-based practice in psychology and medicine should offer few problems in cognitive-behavior therapies because it is consistent with the principles by which they have been developed and disseminated. However, the criteria for assessing empirical status, including the heavy emphasis on manualized treatments, need close examination. A possible outcome of the evidence-based movement would be to focus on the application of manualized treatments in both training and clinical practice; problems with that approach are discussed. Commitment to evidence-based treatment should also include comparisons between psychological and pharmacological interventions, so that rational health care decisions can be made. Psychologists should not be afraid of following the evidence, even when it supports treatments that are not cognitive-behavioral in stated orientation. Such results should be taken as an opportunity for theoretical development and new empirical inquiry rather than be a cause for concern.

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Describes case studies of 2 males (aged 28 and 30 yrs) in which in vivo practice was applied to needle phobia and associated vasovagal fainting. In vivo practice combines skill acquisition with an opportunity to disconfirm negative expectations. Substantial improvements in self-efficacy, anxiety, and performance were obtained. Treatment gains generalized to other settings and were maintained at 3–6 mo follow-up. In vivo practice is recommended for further research into needle phobias.

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This project utilised the materials of the Index for Inclusion (Booth & Ainscow, 2002) to enhance the development of a learning community of educators in Education Queensland in 2009. The values, dimensions and indicators of the Index for Inclusion, were incorporated into the professional development package, On the Same Page (Education Queensland, 2008), to enhance its wider purpose to improve inclusive education practices explicit within the P-12 Curriculum Framework (Education Queensland, 2008). The incorporation of the values, dimensions and indicators of the Index enabled deeper reflection by participants about their expectations of students and their resulting teaching practices. The subsequent development of action plans assisted participants to develop “a curriculum for all” (Education Queensland, 2008, p. 9). Deeper reflection, action planning and ‘distance travelled’ in understanding of inclusive education were apparent in the comments by participants and their evaluation of the professional development package.

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Professionals working in disability services often encounter clients who have chromosome disorders such as Williams, Angelman or Down syndromes. As chromosome testing becomes increasingly sophisticated, however, more people are being diagnosed with very rare chromosome disorders that are identified not by a syndrome name, but rather by a description of the number, size and shape of their chromosomes (called the karyotype) or by a report of chromosome losses and gains detected through an advanced process known as microarray-based comparative genomic hybridisation (array CGH). For practitioners who work with individuals with rare chromosome disorders and their families, a basic level of knowledge about the evolving field of genetics, as well as specific knowledge about chromosome abnormalities, is essential since they must be able to demonstrate their knowledge and skills to clients (Simic & Turk, 2004). In addition, knowledge about the developmental consequences of various rare chromosome disorders is important for guiding prognoses, expectations, decisions and interventions. The current article provides information that aims to help practitioners work more effectively with this population. It begins by presenting essential information about chromosomes and their numerical and structural abnormalities and then considers the developmental consequences of rare chromosome disorders through a critical review of relevant literature.

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This paper examines performances that defy established representations of disease, deformity and bodily difference. Historically, the ‘deformed’ body has been cast – onstage and in sideshows – as flawed, an object of pity, or an example of the human capacity to overcome. Such representations define the boundaries of the ‘normal’ body by displaying its Other. They bracket the ‘abnormal’ body off as an example of deviance from the ‘norm’, thus, paradoxically, decreasing the social and symbolic visibility (and agency) of disabled people. Yet, in contemporary theory and culture, these representations are reappropriated – by disabled artists, certainly, but also as what Carrie Sandahl has called a ‘master trope’ for representing a range of bodily differences. In this paper, I investigate this phenomenon. I analyse French Canadian choreographer Marie Chouinard’s bODY rEMIX/gOLDBERG vARIATIONS, in which 10 able-bodied dancers are reborn as bizarre biotechnical mutants via the use of crutches, walkers, ballet shoes and barres as prosthetic pseudo-organs. These bodies defy boundaries, defy expectations, develop new modes of expression, and celebrate bodily difference. The self-inflicted pain dancers experience during training is cast as a ‘disablement’ that is ultimately ‘enabling’. I ask what effect encountering able bodies celebrating ‘dis’ or ‘diff’ ability has on audiences. Do we see the emergence of a once-repressed Other, no longer silenced, censored or negated? Or does using ‘disability’ to express the dancers’ difference and self-determination usurp a ‘trope’ by which disabled people themselves might speak back to the dominant culture, creating further censorship?

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Construction projects can involve a diverse range of stakeholders and the success of the project depends very much on fulfilling their needs and expectations. It is important, therefore, to identify and recognize project stakeholders and develop a rigorous stakeholder management process. However, limited research has investigated the impact of stakeholders on construction projects in developing countries. A stakeholder impact analysis (SIA), based on an approach developed by Olander (2007), was adopted to investigate the stakeholders' impact on state-owned civil engineering projects in Vietnam. This involved the analysis of a questionnaire survey of 57 project managers to determine the relative importance of different stakeholders. The results show the client to have the highest level of impact on the projects, followed by project managers and the senior management of state-owned engineering firms. The SIA also provides suggestions to project managers in developing and evaluating the stakeholder management process.

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The selection criteria for contractor pre-qualification are characterized by the co-existence of both quantitative and qualitative data. The qualitative data is non-linear, uncertain and imprecise. An ideal decision support system for contractor pre-qualification should have the ability of handling both quantitative and qualitative data, and of mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship of the selection criteria, such that rational and consistent decisions can be made. In this research paper, an artificial neural network model was developed to assist public clients identifying suitable contractors for tendering. The pre-qualification criteria (variables) were identified for the model. One hundred and twelve real pre-qualification cases were collected from civil engineering projects in Hong Kong, and eighty-eight hypothetical pre-qualification cases were also generated according to the “If-then” rules used by professionals in the pre-qualification process. The results of the analysis totally comply with current practice (public developers in Hong Kong). Each pre-qualification case consisted of input ratings for candidate contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification decisions. The training of the neural network model was accomplished by using the developed program, in which a conjugate gradient descent algorithm was incorporated for improving the learning performance of the network. Cross-validation was applied to estimate the generalization errors based on the “re-sampling” of training pairs. The case studies show that the artificial neural network model is suitable for mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship between contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification (disqualification) decisions. The artificial neural network model can be concluded as an ideal alternative for performing the contractor pre-qualification task.

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Strengthening cooperation between schools and parents is critical to improving learning outcomes for children. The chapter focuses on parental engagement in their children’s education in the early years of school. It considers issues of social and cultural capital as important to whether, or not, parents are involved in their children’s schooling. Analyses of data from a national representative sample of children and their families who participate in Growing up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children are presented. Results indicated that higher family socio-economic position was associated with higher levels of parental involvement and higher expectations about children’s future level of education.

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Matrix function approximation is a current focus of worldwide interest and finds application in a variety of areas of applied mathematics and statistics. In this thesis we focus on the approximation of A^(-α/2)b, where A ∈ ℝ^(n×n) is a large, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix and b ∈ ℝ^n is a vector. In particular, we will focus on matrix function techniques for sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields in applied statistics and the solution of fractional-in-space partial differential equations. Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are multivariate normal random variables characterised by a sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrix. GMRFs are popular models in computational spatial statistics as the sparse structure can be exploited, typically through the use of the sparse Cholesky decomposition, to construct fast sampling methods. It is well known, however, that for sufficiently large problems, iterative methods for solving linear systems outperform direct methods. Fractional-in-space partial differential equations arise in models of processes undergoing anomalous diffusion. Unfortunately, as the fractional Laplacian is a non-local operator, numerical methods based on the direct discretisation of these equations typically requires the solution of dense linear systems, which is impractical for fine discretisations. In this thesis, novel applications of Krylov subspace approximations to matrix functions for both of these problems are investigated. Matrix functions arise when sampling from a GMRF by noting that the Cholesky decomposition A = LL^T is, essentially, a `square root' of the precision matrix A. Therefore, we can replace the usual sampling method, which forms x = L^(-T)z, with x = A^(-1/2)z, where z is a vector of independent and identically distributed standard normal random variables. Similarly, the matrix transfer technique can be used to build solutions to the fractional Poisson equation of the form ϕn = A^(-α/2)b, where A is the finite difference approximation to the Laplacian. Hence both applications require the approximation of f(A)b, where f(t) = t^(-α/2) and A is sparse. In this thesis we will compare the Lanczos approximation, the shift-and-invert Lanczos approximation, the extended Krylov subspace method, rational approximations and the restarted Lanczos approximation for approximating matrix functions of this form. A number of new and novel results are presented in this thesis. Firstly, we prove the convergence of the matrix transfer technique for the solution of the fractional Poisson equation and we give conditions by which the finite difference discretisation can be replaced by other methods for discretising the Laplacian. We then investigate a number of methods for approximating matrix functions of the form A^(-α/2)b and investigate stopping criteria for these methods. In particular, we derive a new method for restarting the Lanczos approximation to f(A)b. We then apply these techniques to the problem of sampling from a GMRF and construct a full suite of methods for sampling conditioned on linear constraints and approximating the likelihood. Finally, we consider the problem of sampling from a generalised Matern random field, which combines our techniques for solving fractional-in-space partial differential equations with our method for sampling from GMRFs.