884 resultados para probabilistic risk assessment


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The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

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Se desarrolló una Evaluación de Riesgo Ecológico (ERE) mediante un taller de trabajo con 29 representantes de todos los usuarios de la pesquería de anchoveta (stock norte-centro), en sus tres dimensiones, “bienestar ecológico”, “bienestar humano” y “capacidad de logro”. Se dio prioridad a los temas conflictivos de la pesquería clasificando su riesgo tomando en cuenta el nivel de impacto que tendría al ocurrir y la probabilidad de que ocurra. Se identificó 99 problemas de riesgo de los cuales más de dos tercios fueron clasificados por consenso como alto o extremo. Casi la mitad de los riesgos altos y extremos estuvieron en la dimensión “capacidad de logro”

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La fragmentation est un des mécanismes opérant lors d'avalanche rocheuses. La quantification de l'énergie associée à ce mécanisme permettrait d'apprécier l'influence de celui-ci sur la phase post-rupture d'une avalanche rocheuse. Dans cet article, les distributions des tailles des blocs du massif rocheux et des débris sont présentées et comparées pour neuf cas d'avalanches rocheuses : cinq dans les montagnes Rocheuses canadiennes et quatre dans les Alpes européennes. Des degrés de fragmentation ont pu être estimés. Pour évaluer l'énergie de fragmentation, deux méthodes on été examinées : l'une est basée sur l'énergie de concassage et l'autre est basée sur l'énergie de sautage utilisée dans le domaine minier. Les résultats obtenus portent à croire qu'il y aurait une relation entre l'indice de réduction de taille (Rr = D50/d50) et l'énergie potentielle par unité de volume, normalisée par la résistance au double poinçonnement (?HG/?c). Les énergies de fragmentation calculées pour les neuf cas étudiés donne en moyenne 20 % de l'énergie potentielle. Une relation empirique entre Rr et ?HG/?c est proposée, et est par la suite utilisée pour définir un indice de désintégration (ID). Cet indice reflète la physique du processus de désintégration puisqu'il considère que l'indice de réduction de taille est fonction de l'énergie dissipée et de la résistance de la roche. Ces facteurs connus depuis longtemps n'avaient jamais été présentés d'une façon cohérente pour des cas d'avalanches rocheuses.Mots clés : avalanches rocheuses, désintégration, énergie de fragmentation, Rocheuses canadiennes, Alpes européennes.

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A growing number of studies have identified cleaners as a group at risk for adverse health effects of the skin and the respiratory tract. Chemical substances present in cleaning products could be responsible for these effects. Currently, only limited information is available about irritant and health hazardous chemical substances found in cleaning products. We hypothesized that chemical substances present in cleaning products are known health hazardous substances that might be involved in adverse health effects of the skin and the respiratory tract. We performed a systematic review of cleaning products used in the Swiss cleaning sector. We surveyed Swiss professional cleaning companies (n = 1476) to identify the most used products (n = 105) for inclusion. Safety data sheets (SDSs) were reviewed and hazardous substances present in cleaning products were tabulated with current European and global harmonized system hazard labels. Professional cleaning products are mixtures of substances (arithmetic mean 3.5 +/- 2.8), and more than 132 different chemical substances were identified in 105 products. The main groups of chemicals were fragrances, glycol ethers, surfactants, solvents; and to a lesser extent, phosphates, salts, detergents, pH-stabilizers, acids, and bases. Up to 75% of products contained irritant (Xi), 64% harmful (Xn) and 28% corrosive (C) labeled substances. Hazards for eyes (59%) and skin (50%), and hazards by ingestion (60%) were the most reported. Cleaning products potentially give rise to simultaneous exposures to different chemical substances. As professional cleaners represent a large workforce, and cleaning products are widely used, it is a major public health issue to better understand these exposures. The list of substances provided in this study contains important information for future occupational exposure assessment studies.

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Patent foramen ovale and obstructive sleep apnoea are frequently encountered in the general population. Owing to their prevalence, they may coexist fortuitously; however, the prevalence of patent foramen ovale seems to be higher in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea. We have reviewed the epidemiological data, pathophysiology, and the diagnostic and therapeutic options for both patent foramen ovale and obstructive sleep apnoea. We focus on the interesting pathophysiological links that could explain a potential association between both pathologies and their implications, especially on the risk of stroke.

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L'étude des risques naturels est devenu un sujet de débat entre les géographes physiques français, de plus en plus conscients de l'exposition croissante des sociétés aux risques naturels et du besoin d'évaluer leurs compétences et leurs moyens d'intervention. Mais l'étude des risques naturels a aussi été un sujet récurrent dans l'histoire de la géographie française. Cet article prétend être une approche au traitement qu'a reçu ce thème dans les Annales de Géographie depuis sa création jusqu'h aujourd’hui. Après avoir distingué trois étapes (1891-1930, 1930-1975 et 1975-1991) on a établi les rapports existants entre les différents moments de la géographie française et l'étude des risques naturels et on a analysé autant le contenu des notices sur les divers évènements catastrophiques que les travaux des auteurs les plus représentatifs. I1 s'agit, en résumé, de proposer une réflexion sur la façon dont la géographie française a abordé ce sujet

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Recurrence of cardiovascular events and mortality remain high after acute coronary syndromes. A Swiss multicentric study, "Inflammation and acute coronary syndromes (ACS)--Novel strategies for prevention and clinical managements", is currently underway with the support of the Swiss National Science Foundation. The study includes a clinical research subproject of which the aim is to assess the impact of the ELIPS program (multi-dimEnsionaL prevention Program after acute coronary Syndrome) on the recurrence of cardiovascular events after an ACS. The basic research sub-projects aim to investigate novel cardiovascular risk biomarkers and genetic determinants of recurrence and to study the role of stem cells after an ACS. Another sub-project will evaluate intracoronary imaging techniques and the efficacy of different types of stents.

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Osteoporosis is a serious worldwide epidemic. Increased risk of fractures is the hallmark of the disease and is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and economic burden. FRAX® is a web-based tool developed by the Sheffield WHO Collaborating Center team, that integrates clinical risk factors, femoral neck BMD, country specific mortality and fracture data and calculates the 10 year fracture probability in order to help health care professionals identify patients who need treatment. However, only 31 countries have a FRAX® calculator at the time paper was accepted for publication. In the absence of a FRAX® model for a particular country, it has been suggested to use a surrogate country for which the epidemiology of osteoporosis most closely approximates the index country. More specific recommendations for clinicians in these countries are not available. In North America, concerns have also been raised regarding the assumptions used to construct the US ethnic specific FRAX® calculators with respect to the correction factors applied to derive fracture probabilities in Blacks, Asians and Hispanics in comparison to Whites. In addition, questions were raised about calculating fracture risk in other ethnic groups e.g., Native Americans and First Canadians. In order to provide additional guidance to clinicians, a FRAX® International Task Force was formed to address specific questions raised by physicians in countries without FRAX® calculators and seeking to integrate FRAX® into their clinical practice. The main questions that the task force tried to answer were the following: The Task Force members conducted appropriate literature reviews and developed preliminary statements that were discussed and graded by a panel of experts at the ISCD-IOF joint conference. The statements approved by the panel of experts are discussed in the current paper.

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Road transport emissions are a major contributor to ambient particulate matter concentrations and have been associated with adverse health effects. Therefore, these emissions are targeted through increasingly stringent European emission standards. These policies succeed in reducing exhaust emissions, but do not address "nonexhaust" emissions from brake wear, tire wear, road wear, and suspension in air of road dust. Is this a problem? To what extent do nonexhaust emissions contribute to ambient concentrations of PM10 or PM2.5? In the near future, wear emissions may dominate the remaining traffic-related PM10 emissions in Europe, mostly due to the steep decrease in PM exhaust emissions. This underlines the need to determine the relevance of the wear emissions as a contribution to the existing ambient PM concentrations, and the need to assess the health risks related to wear particles, which has not yet received much attention. During a workshop in 2011, available knowledge was reported and evaluated so as to draw conclusions on the relevance of traffic-related wear emissions for air quality policy development. On the basis of available evidence, which is briefly presented in this paper, it was concluded that nonexhaust emissions and in particular suspension in air of road dust are major contributors to exceedances at street locations of the PM10 air quality standards in various European cities. Furthermore, wear-related PM emissions that contain high concentrations of metals may (despite their limited contribution to the mass of nonexhaust emissions) cause significant health risks for the population, especially those living near intensely trafficked locations. To quantify the existing health risks, targeted research is required on wear emissions, their dispersion in urban areas, population exposure, and its effects on health. Such information will be crucial for environmental policymakers as an input for discussions on the need to develop control strategies.

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The World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool, FRAX(®), is an advance in clinical care that can assist in clinical decision-making. However, with increasing clinical utilization, numerous questions have arisen regarding how to best estimate fracture risk in an individual patient. Recognizing the need to assist clinicians in optimal use of FRAX(®), the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) in conjunction with the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) assembled an international panel of experts that ultimately developed joint Official Positions of the ISCD and IOF advising clinicians regarding FRAX(®) usage. As part of the process, the charge of the FRAX(®) Clinical Task Force was to review and synthesize data surrounding a number of recognized clinical risk factors including rheumatoid arthritis, smoking, alcohol, prior fracture, falls, bone turnover markers and glucocorticoid use. This synthesis was presented to the expert panel and constitutes the data on which the subsequent Official Positions are predicated. A summary of the Clinical Task Force composition and charge is presented here.