948 resultados para prediction intervals
Resumo:
BACKGROUND:
We have recently identified a number of Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) contributing to the 2-fold muscle weight difference between the LG/J and SM/J mouse strains and refined their confidence intervals. To facilitate nomination of the candidate genes responsible for these differences we examined the transcriptome of the tibialis anterior (TA) muscle of each strain by RNA-Seq.
RESULTS:13,726 genes were expressed in mouse skeletal muscle. Intersection of a set of 1061 differentially expressed transcripts with a mouse muscle Bayesian Network identified a coherent set of differentially expressed genes that we term the LG/J and SM/J Regulatory Network (LSRN). The integration of the QTL, transcriptome and the network analyses identified eight key drivers of the LSRN (Kdr, Plbd1, Mgp, Fah, Prss23, 2310014F06Rik, Grtp1, Stk10) residing within five QTL regions, which were either polymorphic or differentially expressed between the two strains and are strong candidates for quantitative trait genes (QTGs) underlying muscle mass. The insight gained from network analysis including the ability to make testable predictions is illustrated by annotating the LSRN with knowledge-based signatures and showing that the SM/J state of the network corresponds to a more oxidative state. We validated this prediction by NADH tetrazolium reductase staining in the TA muscle revealing higher oxidative potential of the SM/J compared to the LG/J strain (p<0.03).
CONCLUSION:Thus, integration of fine resolution QTL mapping, RNA-Seq transcriptome information and mouse muscle Bayesian Network analysis provides a novel and unbiased strategy for nomination of muscle QTGs.
Resumo:
We propose a trace-driven approach to predict the performance degradation of disk request response times due to storage device contention in consolidated virtualized environments. Our performance model evaluates a queueing network with fair share scheduling using trace-driven simulation. The model parameters can be deduced from measurements obtained inside Virtual Machines (VMs) from a system where a single VM accesses a remote storage server. The parameterized model can then be used to predict the effect of storage contention when multiple VMs are consolidated on the same virtualized server. The model parameter estimation relies on a search technique that tries to estimate the splitting and merging of blocks at the the Virtual Machine Monitor (VMM) level in the case of multiple competing VMs. Simulation experiments based on traces of the Postmark and FFSB disk benchmarks show that our model is able to accurately predict the impact of workload consolidation on VM disk IO response times.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.
DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.
SETTING: Primary and secondary care.
PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).
INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).
RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.
LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.
CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.
FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.
Resumo:
The enzyme UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase (GALE) catalyses the reversible epimerisation of both UDP-galactose and UDP-N-acetyl-galactosamine. Deficiency of the human enzyme (hGALE) is associated with type III galactosemia. The majority of known mutations in hGALE are missense and private thus making clinical guidance difficult. In this study a bioinformatics approach was employed to analyse the structural effects due to each mutation using both the UDP-glucose and UDP-N-acetylglucosamine bound structures of the wild-type protein. Changes to the enzyme's overall stability, substrate/cofactor binding and propensity to aggregate were also predicted. These predictions were found to be in good agreement with previous in vitro and in vivo studies when data was available and allowed for the differentiation of those mutants that severely impair the enzyme's activity against UDP-galactose. Next this combination of techniques were applied to another twenty-six reported variants from the NCBI dbSNP database that have yet to be studied to predict their effects. This identified p.I14T, p.R184H and p.G302R as likely severely impairing mutations. Although severely impaired mutants were predicted to decrease the protein's stability, overall predicted stability changes only weakly correlated with residual activity against UDP-galactose. This suggests other protein functions such as changes in cofactor and substrate binding may also contribute to the mechanism of impairment. Finally this investigation shows that this combination of different in silico approaches is useful in predicting the effects of mutations and that it could be the basis of an initial prediction of likely clinical severity when new hGALE mutants are discovered.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE To assess the association between circulating angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors in the second trimester and risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Maternal plasma concentrations of placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1), and soluble endoglin (sEng) were available at 26 weeks of gestation in 540 women with type 1 diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes and Preeclampsia Intervention Trial.
RESULTS Preeclampsia developed in 17% of pregnancies (n = 94). At 26 weeks of gestation, women in whom preeclampsia developed later had significantly lower PlGF (median [interquartile range]: 231 pg/mL [120–423] vs. 365 pg/mL [237–582]; P < 0.001), higher sFlt-1 (1,522 pg/mL [1,108–3,393] vs. 1,193 pg/mL [844–1,630] P < 0.001), and higher sEng (6.2 ng/mL [4.9–7.9] vs. 5.1 ng/mL[(4.3–6.2]; P < 0.001) compared with women who did not have preeclampsia. In addition, the ratio of PlGF to sEng was significantly lower (40 [17–71] vs. 71 [44–114]; P < 0.001) and the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF was significantly higher (6.3 [3.4–15.7] vs. 3.1 [1.8–5.8]; P < 0.001) in women who later developed preeclampsia. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to a logistic model containing established risk factors (area under the curve [AUC], 0.813) significantly improved the predictive value (AUC, 0.850 and 0.846, respectively; P < 0.01) and significantly improved reclassification according to the integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) (IDI scores 0.086 and 0.065, respectively; P < 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors measured during the second trimester are predictive of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to established clinical risk factors significantly improves the prediction of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.
Preeclampsia is characterized by the development of hypertension and new-onset proteinuria during the second half of pregnancy (1,2), leading to increased maternal morbidity and mortality (3). Women with type 1 diabetes are at increased risk for development of preeclampsia during pregnancy, with rates being two-times to four-times higher than that of the background maternity population (4,5). Small advances have come from preventive measures, such as low-dose aspirin in women at high risk (6); however, delivery remains the only effective intervention, and preeclampsia is responsible for up to 15% of preterm births and a consequent increase in infant mortality and morbidity (7).
Although the etiology of preeclampsia remains unclear, abnormal placental vascular remodeling and placental ischemia, together with maternal endothelial dysfunction, hemodynamic changes, and renal pathology, contribute to its pathogenesis (8). In addition, over the past decade accumulating evidence has suggested that an imbalance between angiogenic factors, such as placental growth factor (PlGF), and antiangiogenic factors, such as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) and soluble endoglin (sEng), plays a key role in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia (8,9). In women at low risk (10–13) and women at high risk (14,15), concentrations of angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors are significantly different between women who later develop preeclampsia (lower PlGF, higher sFlt-1, and higher sEng levels) compared with women who do not.
Few studies have specifically focused on circulating angiogenic factors and risk of preeclampsia in women with diabetes, and the results have been conflicting. In a small study, higher sFlt-1 and lower PlGF were reported at the time of delivery in women with diabetes who developed preeclampsia (16). In a longitudinal prospective cohort of pregnant women with diabetes, Yu et al. (17) reported increased sFlt-1 and reduced PlGF in the early third trimester as potential predictors of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes, but they did not show any difference in sEng levels in women with preeclampsia compared with women without preeclampsia. By contrast, Powers et al. (18) reported only increased sEng in the second trimester in women with pregestational diabetes who developed preeclampsia.
The aim of this study, which was significantly larger than the previous studies highlighted, was to assess the association between circulating angiogenic (PlGF) and antiangiogenic (sFlt-1 and sEng) factors and the risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. A further aim was to evaluate the added predictive ability and clinical usefulness of angiogenic factors and established risk factors for preeclampsia risk prediction in women with type 1 diabetes.