Análisis del impacto del tamaño de los activos en la cuenta de resultados mediante la utilización de espacios de fase y análisis de recurrencia

Los resultados financieros de las organizaciones son objeto de estudio y análisis permanente, predecir sus comportamientos es una tarea permanente de empresarios, inversionistas, analistas y académicos. En el presente trabajo se explora el impacto del tamaño de los activos (valor total de los activos) en la cuenta de resultados operativos y netos, analizando inicialmente la relación entre dichas variables con indicadores tradicionales del análisis financiero como es el caso de la rentabilidad operativa y neta y con elementos de estadística descriptiva que permiten calificar los datos utilizados como lineales o no lineales. Descubriendo posteriormente que los resultados financieros de las empresas vigiladas por la Superintendencia de Sociedades para el año 2012, tienen un comportamiento no lineal, de esta manera se procede a analizar la relación de los activos y los resultados con la utilización de espacios de fase y análisis de recurrencia, herramientas útiles para sistemas caóticos y complejos. Para el desarrollo de la investigación y la revisión de la relación entre las variables de activos y resultados financieros se tomó como fuente de información los reportes financieros del cierre del año 2012 de la Superintendencia de Sociedades (Superintendencia de Sociedades, 2012).

GESTIÓN CON BASE EN LAS CIENCIAS DE LA COMPLEJIDAD: LAS ORGANIZACIONES COMO ESTUCTURAS DISIPATIVAS

Resumen: Este texto explora el sentido y la posibilidad de introducir la teoría de Ilya Prigogine “estructuras disipativas” en el contexto de las organizaciones. La tesis aquí propuesta afirma que las organizaciones son sistemas abiertos, alejados del equilibrio y tiene que ver con posibilidades creativas, antes que con realidades fácticas. Por lo tanto, las organizaciones de no-equilibrio están constituidas por fenómenos de comportamientos espontáneos o coherentes que reclaman para sobrevivir cierta disipación de energía y, por tanto, el mantenimiento de una interacción con el mundo exterior. Con ello la gerencia adquiere un papel destacado en el estudio de las organizaciones como estructuras disipativas encaminadas a generar y permitir el Biodesarrollo. Palabras claves: Estructuras Disipativas, Fluctuaciones, Bifurcaciones, Gerencia, Biodesarrollo, Auto-eco-organizador. Abstract:  This text explores the sense and possibility of introducing Ilya Prigogine´s theory “dissipative structures”, into organizations´ context. The thesis proposed here states that organizations are open systems which are far away from equilibrium and had to deal with creative possibilities before being practical realities. Thus, no-equilibrium organizations are made of spontaneous or coherent behavioral phenomenon that strives to survive a certain amount of energy loss, hence the maintenance of interaction with external world. This way organizations management acquires an outstanding roll in studying organizations as dissipative structures prone to create and allow bio-development.Key Words: Dissipative Structures, Fluctuation, Bifurcation, Management, Bio-development, eco-self-organizer.

Hipotensión arterial y variabilidad de la frecuencia cardiaca en pacientes embarazadas llevadas a cesarea bajo anestesia raquídea

INTRODUCCION La hipotensión arterial por anestesia raquídea en embarazadas llevadas a cesárea es frecuente y deletérea para la madre y el feto, sin que a la fecha exista una herramienta clínicamente útil para predecirla. La variabilidad de la frecuencia cardiaca es una medida que estima la actividad del sistema nervioso autónomo y algunos estudio iniciales indican una posible utilidad como herramienta predictiva de hipotensión arterial en esta población. METODOLOGIA Se realizó un estudio observacional descriptivo para examinar el comportamiento de la variabilidad de la frecuencia cardiaca, medida como razón de Baja frecuencia/Alta frecuencia, con un punto de corte de 2.5 tomada con un reloj POLAR RS800CX, en una población de pacientes con embarazo a término llevadas a cesárea, en un hospital de tercer nivel en Bogotá- Colombia entre Febrero y Abril del 2015. RESULTADOS El estudio incluyó 82 pacientes. Se determinó que la razón Baja frecuencia/Alta frecuencia mayor a 2,5 era poco frecuente en nuestra población (15.85%), y su asociación no fue significativa. DISCUSION El presente estudio demostró que la asociación entre la presencia de hipotensión y un índice Baja frecuencia/Alta frecuencia con punto de corte de 2.5 no es significativo para nuestra población de mujeres con embarazo a término llevadas a cesárea con anestesia espinal. Según los resultados se sugieres un punto de corte de 1.6 como punto de partida para la realización de nuevos estudios que permitan validar este valor.

Protección miocárdica con custodiol y trastornos de la osmolalidad

En análisis retrospectivo evaluamos 91 pacientes llevados a cirugía cardiaca entre 2013 y 2014 en la Fundación Cardioinfantil, en quienes se administro Custodiol, analizando los niveles de sodio y osmolalidad plasmática efectiva antes, durante y después del procedimiento quirúrgico. Nosotros evaluamos la relación entre administración de Custodiol y cambios en el sodio y osmolalidad plasmática del paciente llevado a cirugía cardiaca.

Basin-scale hydrodynamics in a Mediterranean reservoir. Implications for the phytoplankton dynamics

Procesos hidrodinámicos determinan, en un alto grado la calidad del agua en embalse, sin embargo dichos procesos han sido tradicionalmente olvidados en la gestión de embalse. En esta tesis se presentan evidencias de los principales procesos hidrodinámicos que ocurren en un embalse Mediterráneo a escala de cuenca a través de campañas experimentales y modelización numérica; y su influencia en la dinámica de poblaciones de fitoplancton. Dichos procesos son principalmente la generación de ondas internas o secas y la intrusión del río. La presencia de viento periódico genera secas forzadas, amplificando los modos cercanos al periodo del viento, de manera que modos verticales altos, considerados como raros en la naturaleza, tienden a dominar en el sistema.

Differential sensitivity to tonal frequency and to the rate of modulation of broad-band noise by hearing-impaired listeners

This dissertation examined whether a hearing impairment of the auditory end-organ has the same or a differential effect on the place and periodicity processes. Differential sensitivities for four normally hearing listeners and for both ears of five patients with unilateral Meniere’s disease were measured for tonal frequency and rate of sinusoidally amplitude-modulated noise at common frequencies and rates of the stimulus.

How does a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation lead to an intensification of the ENSO-south Asian summer monsoon interaction?

This study investigates the change of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-South Asian summer monsoon interaction in response to a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the weakened THC leads to intensified ENSO-South Asian summer monsoon relationship and enhanced South Asian summer monsoon interannual variability. Furthermore, it is suggested that this intensification of the ENSO-monsoon relationship is likely due to the enhanced ENSO variability induced by the weakened THC. This study indicates that the low frequency fluctuation of Atlantic SSTs might have an influence on South Asian summer monsoon interannual variability and the ENSO-monsoon interaction, and suggests a nonlocal mechanism for the observed decadal-multidecadal modulation of ENSO-monsoon relationship.

Periodic Reordering

For many networks in nature, science and technology, it is possible to order the nodes so that most links are short-range, connecting near-neighbours, and relatively few long-range links, or shortcuts, are present. Given a network as a set of observed links (interactions), the task of finding an ordering of the nodes that reveals such a range-dependent structure is closely related to some sparse matrix reordering problems arising in scientific computation. The spectral, or Fiedler vector, approach for sparse matrix reordering has successfully been applied to biological data sets, revealing useful structures and subpatterns. In this work we argue that a periodic analogue of the standard reordering task is also highly relevant. Here, rather than encouraging nonzeros only to lie close to the diagonal of a suitably ordered adjacency matrix, we also allow them to inhabit the off-diagonal corners. Indeed, for the classic small-world model of Watts & Strogatz (1998, Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks. Nature, 393, 440–442) this type of periodic structure is inherent. We therefore devise and test a new spectral algorithm for periodic reordering. By generalizing the range-dependent random graph class of Grindrod (2002, Range-dependent random graphs and their application to modeling large small-world proteome datasets. Phys. Rev. E, 66, 066702-1–066702-7) to the periodic case, we can also construct a computable likelihood ratio that suggests whether a given network is inherently linear or periodic. Tests on synthetic data show that the new algorithm can detect periodic structure, even in the presence of noise. Further experiments on real biological data sets then show that some networks are better regarded as periodic than linear. Hence, we find both qualitative (reordered networks plots) and quantitative (likelihood ratios) evidence of periodicity in biological networks.

Pb-210-Ra-226 and Ra-228-Th-232 systematics in young arc lavas: implications for magma degassing and ascent rates

New data show that island arc rocks have (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) ratios which range from as low as 0.24 up to 2.88. In contrast, (Ra-22S/Th-232) appears always within error of I suggesting that the large Ra-226-excesses observed in arc rocks were generated more than 30 years ago. This places a maximum estimate on melt ascent velocities of around 4000 m/year and provides further confidence that the Ra-226 excesses reflect deep (source) processes rather than shallow level alteration or seawater contamination. Conversely, partial melting must have occurred more than 30 years prior to eruption. The Pb-210 deficits are most readily explained by protracted magma degassing. Using published numerical models, the data suggest that degassing occurred continuously for periods up to several decades just prior to eruption but no link with eruption periodicity was found. Longer periods are required if degassing is discontinuous, less than 100% efficient or if magma is recharged or stored after degassing. The long durations suggest much of this degassing occurs at depth with implications for the formation of hydrothermal and copper-porphyry systems. A suite of lavas erupted in 1985-1986 from Sangeang Api volcano in the Sunda arc are characterised by deficits of Pb-210 relative to Ra-226 from which 6-8 years of continuous Rn-222 degassing would be inferred from recent numerical models. These data also form a linear (Pb-210)/Pb-(Ra-226)/Pb array which might be interpreted as a 71-year isochron. However, the array passes through the origin suggesting displacement downwards from the equiline in response to degassing and so the slope of the array is inferred not to have any age significance. Simple modelling shows that the range of (Ra-226)/Pb ratios requires thousands of years to develop consistent with differentiation occurring in response to cooling at the base of the crust. Thus, degassing post-dated, and was not responsible for magma differentiation. The formation, migration and extraction of gas bubbles must be extremely efficient in mafic magma whereas the higher viscosity of more siliceous magmas retards the process and can lead to Pb-210 excesses. A possible negative correlation between (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) and SO2 emission rate requires further testing but may have implications for future eruptions. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wavelets and the generalization of the variogram

The experimental variogram computed in the usual way by the method of moments and the Haar wavelet transform are similar in that they filter data and yield informative summaries that may be interpreted. The variogram filters out constant values; wavelets can filter variation at several spatial scales and thereby provide a richer repertoire for analysis and demand no assumptions other than that of finite variance. This paper compares the two functions, identifying that part of the Haar wavelet transform that gives it its advantages. It goes on to show that the generalized variogram of order k=1, 2, and 3 filters linear, quadratic, and cubic polynomials from the data, respectively, which correspond with more complex wavelets in Daubechies's family. The additional filter coefficients of the latter can reveal features of the data that are not evident in its usual form. Three examples in which data recorded at regular intervals on transects are analyzed illustrate the extended form of the variogram. The apparent periodicity of gilgais in Australia seems to be accentuated as filter coefficients are added, but otherwise the analysis provides no new insight. Analysis of hyerpsectral data with a strong linear trend showed that the wavelet-based variograms filtered it out. Adding filter coefficients in the analysis of the topsoil across the Jurassic scarplands of England changed the upper bound of the variogram; it then resembled the within-class variogram computed by the method of moments. To elucidate these results, we simulated several series of data to represent a random process with values fluctuating about a mean, data with long-range linear trend, data with local trend, and data with stepped transitions. The results suggest that the wavelet variogram can filter out the effects of long-range trend, but not local trend, and of transitions from one class to another, as across boundaries.

Pb-210-Ra-226 and Ra-228-Th-232 systematics in young arc lavas: implications for magma degassing and ascent rates

New data show that island arc rocks have (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) ratios which range from as low as 0.24 up to 2.88. In contrast, (Ra-22S/Th-232) appears always within error of I suggesting that the large Ra-226-excesses observed in arc rocks were generated more than 30 years ago. This places a maximum estimate on melt ascent velocities of around 4000 m/year and provides further confidence that the Ra-226 excesses reflect deep (source) processes rather than shallow level alteration or seawater contamination. Conversely, partial melting must have occurred more than 30 years prior to eruption. The Pb-210 deficits are most readily explained by protracted magma degassing. Using published numerical models, the data suggest that degassing occurred continuously for periods up to several decades just prior to eruption but no link with eruption periodicity was found. Longer periods are required if degassing is discontinuous, less than 100% efficient or if magma is recharged or stored after degassing. The long durations suggest much of this degassing occurs at depth with implications for the formation of hydrothermal and copper-porphyry systems. A suite of lavas erupted in 1985-1986 from Sangeang Api volcano in the Sunda arc are characterised by deficits of Pb-210 relative to Ra-226 from which 6-8 years of continuous Rn-222 degassing would be inferred from recent numerical models. These data also form a linear (Pb-210)/Pb-(Ra-226)/Pb array which might be interpreted as a 71-year isochron. However, the array passes through the origin suggesting displacement downwards from the equiline in response to degassing and so the slope of the array is inferred not to have any age significance. Simple modelling shows that the range of (Ra-226)/Pb ratios requires thousands of years to develop consistent with differentiation occurring in response to cooling at the base of the crust. Thus, degassing post-dated, and was not responsible for magma differentiation. The formation, migration and extraction of gas bubbles must be extremely efficient in mafic magma whereas the higher viscosity of more siliceous magmas retards the process and can lead to Pb-210 excesses. A possible negative correlation between (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) and SO2 emission rate requires further testing but may have implications for future eruptions. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterising errors in airborne laser altimetry data to extract soil roughness

Airborne laser altimetry has the potential to make frequent detailed observations that are important for many aspects of studying land surface processes. However, the uncertainties inherent in airborne laser altimetry data have rarely been well measured. Uncertainty is often specified as generally as 20cm in elevation, and 40cm planimetric. To better constrain these uncertainties, we present an analysis of several datasets acquired specifically to study the temporal consistency of laser altimetry data, and thus assess its operational value. The error budget has three main components, each with a time regime. For measurements acquired less than 50ms apart, elevations have a local standard deviation in height of 3.5cm, enabling the local measurement of surface roughness of the order of 5cm. Points acquired seconds apart acquire an additional random error due to Differential Geographic Positioning System (DGPS) fluctuation. Measurements made up to an hour apart show an elevation drift of 7cm over a half hour. Over months, this drift gives rise to a random elevation offset between swathes, with an average of 6.4cm. The RMS planimetric error in point location was derived as 37.4cm. We conclude by considering the consequences of these uncertainties on the principle application of laser altimetry in the UK, intertidal zone monitoring.

The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.

Representing El Niño in coupled ocean–atmosphere GCMs: the dominant role of the atmospheric component

A systematic modular approach to investigate the respective roles of the ocean and atmosphere in setting El Niño characteristics in coupled general circulation models is presented. Several state-of-the-art coupled models sharing either the same atmosphere or the same ocean are compared. Major results include 1) the dominant role of the atmosphere model in setting El Niño characteristics (periodicity and base amplitude) and errors (regularity) and 2) the considerable improvement of simulated El Niño power spectra—toward lower frequency—when the atmosphere resolution is significantly increased. Likely reasons for such behavior are briefly discussed. It is argued that this new modular strategy represents a generic approach to identifying the source of both coupled mechanisms and model error and will provide a methodology for guiding model improvement.

Time series analysis of lava flux

We have applied time series analytical techniques to the flux of lava from an extrusive eruption. Tilt data acting as a proxy for flux are used in a case study of the May–August 1997 period of the eruption at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We justify the use of such a proxy by simple calibratory arguments. Three techniques of time series analysis are employed: spectral, spectrogram and wavelet methods. In addition to the well-known ~9-hour periodicity shown by these data, a previously unknown periodic flux variability is revealed by the wavelet analysis as a 3-day cycle of frequency modulation during June–July 1997, though the physical mechanism responsible is not clear. Such time series analysis has potential for other lava flux proxies at other types of volcanoes.