Age -period -cohort analysis: An extension of Cox's lifetable regression with time -dependent covariates

It is well known that an identification problem exists in the analysis of age-period-cohort data because of the relationship among the three factors (date of birth + age at death = date of death). There are numerous suggestions about how to analyze the data. No one solution has been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to provide another analytic method by extending the Cox's lifetable regression model with time-dependent covariates. The new approach contains the following features: (1) It is based on the conditional maximum likelihood procedure using a proportional hazard function described by Cox (1972), treating the age factor as the underlying hazard to estimate the parameters for the cohort and period factors. (2) The model is flexible so that both the cohort and period factors can be treated as dummy or continuous variables, and the parameter estimations can be obtained for numerous combinations of variables as in a regression analysis. (3) The model is applicable even when the time period is unequally spaced.^ Two specific models are considered to illustrate the new approach and applied to the U.S. prostate cancer data. We find that there are significant differences between all cohorts and there is a significant period effect for both whites and nonwhites. The underlying hazard increases exponentially with age indicating that old people have much higher risk than young people. A log transformation of relative risk shows that the prostate cancer risk declined in recent cohorts for both models. However, prostate cancer risk declined 5 cohorts (25 years) earlier for whites than for nonwhites under the period factor model (0 0 0 1 1 1 1). These latter results are similar to the previous study by Holford (1983).^ The new approach offers a general method to analyze the age-period-cohort data without using any arbitrary constraint in the model. ^

Modulation of replicative senescence of skeletal muscle satellite cells by insulin -like growth factor-I (IGF-I)

Growth and regeneration of postnatal skeletal muscle requires a population of mononuclear myogenic cells, called satellite cells to add/replace myonuclei, which are postmitotic. Wedged between the sarcolemma and the basal lamina of the skeletal muscle fiber, these cells function as the stem cells of mature muscle fibers. Like other normal diploid cells, satellite cells undergo cellular senescence. Investigations of aging in both rodents and humans have shown that satellite cell self-renewal capacity decreases with advanced age. As a consequence, this could be a potential reason for the characteristically observed age-associated loss in skeletal muscle mass (sarcopenia). This provided the rationale that any intervention that can further increase the proliferative capacity of these cells should potentially be able to either delay, or even prevent sarcopenia. ^ Using clonogenicity assays to determine a cell's proliferation potential, these studies have shown that IGF-I enhances the doubling potential of satellite cells from aged rodents. Using a transgenic model, where the mice express the IGF-I transgene specifically in their striated muscles, some of the underlying biochemical mechanisms for the observed increase in replicative life span were delineated. These studies have revealed that IGF-I activates the PI3/Akt pathway to mediate downregulation of p27KIP1, which consequently is associated with an increase in cyclin E-cdk2 kinase activity, phosphorylation of pRb, and upregulation of cyclin A protein. However, the beneficial effects of IGF-I on satellite cell proliferative potential appears to be limited as chronic overexpression of IGF-I in skeletal muscles did not protect against sarcopenia in 18-mo old mice, and was associated with an exhaustion of satellite cell replicative reserves. ^ These results have shown that replicative senescence can be modulated by environmental factors using skeletal muscle satellite cells as a model system. A better understanding of the molecular basis for enhancement of proliferative capacity by IGF-I will provide a rational basis for developing more effective counter-measures against physical frailty. However, the implications of these studies are that these beneficial effects of enhanced proliferative potential by IGF-I may only be over a short-term period, and other alternative approaches may need to be considered. ^

High-resolution multi-proxy record of the last glacial period from Lake Van, eastern Anatolian high plateau, Turkey

Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen, Ca/K ratio and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial (~75-15 ka BP). The climate within the last glacial was cold and dry, with low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (~28-14.5 ka BP) dominated by the highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions of tree populations that reflects variability in temperature and moisture availability. This rapid vegetation and environmental changes can be linked to the stadial-interstadial pattern of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Periods of reduced moisture availability were characterized by enhanced xerophytic species and high terrigenous input from the Lake Van catchment area. Furthermore, comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be explained by the strength and position of the westerlies, which is responsible for the supply of humidity in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by diverse topography of the Lake Van catchment, larger DO interstadials (e.g. DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8) show the highest expansion of temperate species within the last glacial. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in marine sediments, are identified in eastern Anatolia by AP values not lower and high steppe components not more abundant than during DO stadials. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record over the last glacial in the Near East, which documents an initial immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables us to shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.

Revised age models and foraminiferal records obtained for the Last Interglacial period in six marine sediment cores

The dataset contains the revised age models and foraminiferal records obtained for the Last Interglacial period in six marine sediment cores: - the Southern Ocean core MD02-2488 (age model, sea surface temperatures, benthic d18O and d13C for the period 136-108 ka), - the North Atlantic core MD95-2042 (age model, planktic d18O, benthic d18O and d13C for the period 135-110 ka), - the North Atlantic core ODP 980 (age model, planktic d18O, sea surface temperatures, seawater d18O, benthic d18O and d13C, ice-rafted detritus for the period 135-110 ka), - the North Atlantic core CH69-K09 (age model, planktic d18O, sea surface temperatures, seawater d18O, benthic d18O and d13C, ice-rafted detritus for the period 135-110 ka), - the Norwegian Sea core MD95-2010 (age model, percentage of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral, sea surface temperatures, benthic d18O, ice-rafted detritus for the period 134-110 ka), - the Labrador Sea core EW9302-JPC2 (age model, percentage of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral, sea surface temperatures, benthic d18O for the period 134-110 ka).