Towards Bayesian experimental design for nonlinear models that require a large number of sampling times

The use of Bayesian methodologies for solving optimal experimental design problems has increased. Many of these methods have been found to be computationally intensive for design problems that require a large number of design points. A simulation-based approach that can be used to solve optimal design problems in which one is interested in finding a large number of (near) optimal design points for a small number of design variables is presented. The approach involves the use of lower dimensional parameterisations that consist of a few design variables, which generate multiple design points. Using this approach, one simply has to search over a few design variables, rather than searching over a large number of optimal design points, thus providing substantial computational savings. The methodologies are demonstrated on four applications, including the selection of sampling times for pharmacokinetic and heat transfer studies, and involve nonlinear models. Several Bayesian design criteria are also compared and contrasted, as well as several different lower dimensional parameterisation schemes for generating the many design points.

Hybrid game evolutionary algorithm for mission path planning of aerial survey tasks

The aim of this paper is to implement a Game-Theory based offline mission path planner for aerial inspection tasks of large linear infrastructures. Like most real-world optimisation problems, mission path planning involves a number of objectives which ideally should be minimised simultaneously. The goal of this work is then to develop a Multi-Objective (MO) optimisation tool able to provide a set of optimal solutions for the inspection task, given the environment data, the mission requirements and the definition of the objectives to minimise. Results indicate the robustness and capability of the method to find the trade-off between the Pareto-optimal solutions.

An evolutionary computation approach to three-dimensional path planning for unmanned aerial vehicles with tactical and kinematic constraints

This paper presents a novel evolutionary computation approach to three-dimensional path planning for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with tactical and kinematic constraints. A genetic algorithm (GA) is modified and extended for path planning. Two GAs are seeded at the initial and final positions with a common objective to minimise their distance apart under given UAV constraints. This is accomplished by the synchronous optimisation of subsequent control vectors. The proposed evolutionary computation approach is called synchronous genetic algorithm (SGA). The sequence of control vectors generated by the SGA constitutes to a near-optimal path plan. The resulting path plan exhibits no discontinuity when transitioning from curve to straight trajectories. Experiments and results show that the paths generated by the SGA are within 2% of the optimal solution. Such a path planner when implemented on a hardware accelerator, such as field programmable gate array chips, can be used in the UAV as on-board replanner, as well as in ground station systems for assisting in high precision planning and modelling of mission scenarios.

Application of multi-criteria decision making methods to compression ignition engine efficiency and gaseous, particulate and greenhouse gas emissions

Compression ignition (CI) engine design is subject to many constraints which presents a multi-criteria optimisation problem that the engine researcher must solve. In particular, the modern CI engine must not only be efficient, but must also deliver low gaseous, particulate and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions so that its impact on urban air quality, human health, and global warming are minimised. Consequently, this study undertakes a multi-criteria analysis which seeks to identify alternative fuels, injection technologies and combustion strategies that could potentially satisfy these CI engine design constraints. Three datasets are analysed with the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations and Geometrical Analysis for Interactive Aid (PROMETHEE-GAIA) algorithm to explore the impact of 1): an ethanol fumigation system, 2): alternative fuels (20 % biodiesel and synthetic diesel) and alternative injection technologies (mechanical direct injection and common rail injection), and 3): various biodiesel fuels made from 3 feedstocks (i.e. soy, tallow, and canola) tested at several blend percentages (20-100 %) on the resulting emissions and efficiency profile of the various test engines. The results show that moderate ethanol substitutions (~20 % by energy) at moderate load, high percentage soy blends (60-100 %), and alternative fuels (biodiesel and synthetic diesel) provide an efficiency and emissions profile that yields the most “preferred” solutions to this multi-criteria engine design problem. Further research is, however, required to reduce Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) emissions with alternative fuels, and to deliver technologies that do not significantly reduce the median diameter of particle emissions.

Optimized strategy for integrated traffic and transit signal control

This paper proposes a unique and innovative approach to integrate transit signal priority control into a traffic adaptive signal control strategy. The proposed strategy was named OSTRAC (Optimized Strategy for integrated TRAffic and TRAnsit signal Control). The cornerstones of OSTRAC include an online microscopic traffic f low prediction model and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based traffic signal timing module. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the critical GA parameters. The developed traffic f low model demonstrated reliable prediction results through a test. OSTRAC was evaluated by comparing its performance to three other signal control strategies. The evaluation results revealed that OSTRAC efficiently and effectively reduced delay time of general traffic and also transit vehicles.

Coordination of UAV path planning in 2D and 3D in environmental/bio sensing applications

This paper is concerned with the optimal path planning and initialization interval of one or two UAVs in presence of a constant wind. The method compares previous literature results on synchronization of UAVs along convex curves, path planning and sampling in 2D and extends it to 3D. This method can be applied to observe gas/particle emissions inside a control volume during sampling loops. The flight pattern is composed of two phases: a start-up interval and a sampling interval which is represented by a semi-circular path. The methods were tested in four complex model test cases in 2D and 3D as well as one simulated real world scenario in 2D and one in 3D.

Earthworks planning for road construction projects : a case study

In this paper we construct earthwork allocation plans for a linear infrastructure road project. Fuel consumption metrics and an innovative block partitioning and modelling approach are applied to reduce costs. 2D and 3D variants of the problem were compared to see what effect, if any, occurs on solution quality. 3D variants were also considered to see what additional complexities and difficulties occur. The numerical investigation shows a significant improvement and a reduction in fuel consumption as theorised. The proposed solutions differ considerably from plans that were constructed for a distance based metric as commonly used in other approaches. Under certain conditions, 3D problem instances can be solved optimally as 2D problems.

Adaptive dynamic path re-planning RRT algorithms with game theory for UAVs

The main aim of this paper is to describe an adaptive re-planning algorithm based on a RRT and Game Theory to produce an efficient collision free obstacle adaptive Mission Path Planner for Search and Rescue (SAR) missions. This will provide UAV autopilots and flight computers with the capability to autonomously avoid static obstacles and No Fly Zones (NFZs) through dynamic adaptive path replanning. The methods and algorithms produce optimal collision free paths and can be integrated on a decision aid tool and UAV autopilots.

Effects of scaffold architecture on cranial bone healing

Scaffolds for bone tissue engineering should be designed to optimize cell migration, enhance new bone formation and give mechanical support. In the present study, we used polycaprolactone-tricalciumphosphate (PCL/TCP) scaffolds with two different fibre lay down patterns which were coated with hydroxyapatite and gelatine as an approach for optimizing bone regeneration in a critical sized calvarial defect. After 12 weeks bone regeneration was quantified using microCT analysis, biomechanical testing and histological evaluation. Notably, the experimental groups containing coated scaffolds showed lower bone formation and lower biomechanical properties within the defect compared to the uncoated scaffolds. Surprisingly, the different lay down pattern of the fibres resulted in different bone formation and biomechanical properties; namely 0/60/120° scaffolds revealed lower bone formation and biomechanical properties compared to the 0/90° scaffolds in all the experimental groups. The different architecture of the scaffold fibres may have an effect on nutrition supply as well as the attachment of the newly formed matrix to the scaffold. Therefore, future bone regeneration strategies utilising scaffolds should consider scaffold architecture as an important factor during the scaffold optimisation stages in order to move closer to a clinical application.

Faster Monte Carlo simulation of radiotherapy geometries

Using Monte Carlo simulation for radiotherapy dose calculation can provide more accurate results when compared to the analytical methods usually found in modern treatment planning systems, especially in regions with a high degree of inhomogeneity. These more accurate results acquired using Monte Carlo simulation however, often require orders of magnitude more calculation time so as to attain high precision, thereby reducing its utility within the clinical environment. This work aims to improve the utility of Monte Carlo simulation within the clinical environment by developing techniques which enable faster Monte Carlo simulation of radiotherapy geometries. This is achieved principally through the use new high performance computing environments and simpler alternative, yet equivalent representations of complex geometries. Firstly the use of cloud computing technology and it application to radiotherapy dose calculation is demonstrated. As with other super-computer like environments, the time to complete a simulation decreases as 1=n with increasing n cloud based computers performing the calculation in parallel. Unlike traditional super computer infrastructure however, there is no initial outlay of cost, only modest ongoing usage fees; the simulations described in the following are performed using this cloud computing technology. The definition of geometry within the chosen Monte Carlo simulation environment - Geometry & Tracking 4 (GEANT4) in this case - is also addressed in this work. At the simulation implementation level, a new computer aided design interface is presented for use with GEANT4 enabling direct coupling between manufactured parts and their equivalent in the simulation environment, which is of particular importance when defining linear accelerator treatment head geometry. Further, a new technique for navigating tessellated or meshed geometries is described, allowing for up to 3 orders of magnitude performance improvement with the use of tetrahedral meshes in place of complex triangular surface meshes. The technique has application in the definition of both mechanical parts in a geometry as well as patient geometry. Static patient CT datasets like those found in typical radiotherapy treatment plans are often very large and present a significant performance penalty on a Monte Carlo simulation. By extracting the regions of interest in a radiotherapy treatment plan, and representing them in a mesh based form similar to those used in computer aided design, the above mentioned optimisation techniques can be used so as to reduce the time required to navigation the patient geometry in the simulation environment. Results presented in this work show that these equivalent yet much simplified patient geometry representations enable significant performance improvements over simulations that consider raw CT datasets alone. Furthermore, this mesh based representation allows for direct manipulation of the geometry enabling motion augmentation for time dependant dose calculation for example. Finally, an experimental dosimetry technique is described which allows the validation of time dependant Monte Carlo simulation, like the ones made possible by the afore mentioned patient geometry definition. A bespoke organic plastic scintillator dose rate meter is embedded in a gel dosimeter thereby enabling simultaneous 3D dose distribution and dose rate measurement. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of applying alternative and equivalent geometry definitions to complex geometries for the purposes of Monte Carlo simulation performance improvement. Additionally, these alternative geometry definitions allow for manipulations to be performed on otherwise static and rigid geometry.

Caustic potash pulping study of water efficient Arudno donax and Sorghum bicolor; a comparison to sugarcane bagasse

Numerous crops grow in sugar regions that have the potential to increase the amount of biomass available to a small bagasse-based pulp factory. Arundo donax and Sorghum offer unique advantages to farmers compared to other agricultural crops. Sorghum bicolour requires only 1/3 of the water of sugarcane. Arundo donax is a very high yield crop, it can also grow with little water but it has the further advantage in that it is also highly stress tolerant, making it suitable for land which is unsuited to other crops. Pulps produced from these crops were benchmarked against sugarcane bagasse pulp. Arundo, sorghum and bagasse were pulped using KOH and anthraquinone to 20 Kappa number so as to produce a bleachable pulp. The unbleached sorghum pulp has better tensile strength properties than the unbleached Arundo pulp (43.8 Nm/g compared to 21.4 Nm/g) and the bleached sorghum pulp tensile strength was similar to bagasse (28.4 Nm/g). At 20 Kappa number, sorghum pulp had acceptable yield for a non-wood fibre (45% c.f. 55% for bagasse), Arundo donax pulp had low tensile strength, and relatively low yield (38.7%), even for an agricultural fibre and required severe cooking conditions to achieve similar delignification to sugarcane bagasse or sorghum. Sorghum and Arundo donax produced thicker handsheets than bagasse (>160 μm c.f. 122 μm for bagasse). In preliminary experiments sorghum and bagasse responded slightly better to Totally Chlorine Free bleaching (QPP), although none achieved a satisfactory brightness level and more optimisation is needed.

Numerical solution of an optimal control model of dendritic cell treatment of a growing tumour

A new optimal control model of the interactions between a growing tumour and the host immune system along with an immunotherapy treatment strategy is presented. The model is based on an ordinary differential equation model of interactions between the growing tu- mour and the natural killer, cytotoxic T lymphocyte and dendritic cells of the host immune system, extended through the addition of a control function representing the application of a dendritic cell treat- ment to the system. The numerical solution of this model, obtained from a multi species Runge–Kutta forward-backward sweep scheme, is described. We investigate the effects of varying the maximum al- lowed amount of dendritic cell vaccine administered to the system and find that control of the tumour cell population is best effected via a high initial vaccine level, followed by reduced treatment and finally cessation of treatment. We also found that increasing the strength of the dendritic cell vaccine causes an increase in the number of natural killer cells and lymphocytes, which in turn reduces the growth of the tumour.

Integrated traveller information

This poster summarises the current findings from STRC’s Integrated Traveller Information research domain that aims for accurate and reliable travel time prediction, and optimisation of multimodal trips. Following are the three selected discussions: a) Fundamental understanding on the use of Bluetooth MAC Scanner (BMS) for travel time estimation b) Integration of multi-sources (Loops and Bluetooth) for travel time and density estimation c) Architecture for online and predictive multimodal trip planner

Online calibration of stereo rigs for long-term autonomy

Stereo-based visual odometry algorithms are heavily dependent on an accurate calibration of the rigidly fixed stereo pair. Even small shifts in the rigid transform between the cameras can impact on feature matching and 3D scene triangulation, adversely affecting pose estimates and applications dependent on long-term autonomy. In many field-based scenarios where vibration, knocks and pressure change affect a robotic vehicle, maintaining an accurate stereo calibration cannot be guaranteed over long periods. This paper presents a novel method of recalibrating overlapping stereo camera rigs from online visual data while simultaneously providing an up-to-date and up-to-scale pose estimate. The proposed technique implements a novel form of partitioned bundle adjustment that explicitly includes the homogeneous transform between a stereo camera pair to generate an optimal calibration. Pose estimates are computed in parallel to the calibration, providing online recalibration which seamlessly integrates into a stereo visual odometry framework. We present results demonstrating accurate performance of the algorithm on both simulated scenarios and real data gathered from a wide-baseline stereo pair on a ground vehicle traversing urban roads.

Development of optimal designs of insulated rail joints

Proper functioning of Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) is essential for the safe operation of the railway signalling systems and broken rail identification circuitries. The Conventional IRJ (CIRJ) resembles structural butt joints consisting of two pieces of rails connected together through two joint bars on either side of their web and the assembly is held together through pre-tensioned bolts. As the IRJs should maintain electrical insulation between the two rails, a gap between the rail ends must be retained at all times and all metal contacting surfaces should be electrically isolated from each other using non-conductive material. At the gap, the rail ends lose longitudinal continuity and hence the vertical sections of the rail ends are often severely damaged, especially at the railhead, due to the passage of wheels compared to other continuously welded rail sections. Fundamentally, the reason for the severe damage can be related to the singularities of the wheel-rail contact pressure and the railhead stress. No new generation designs that have emerged in the market to date have focussed on this fundamental; they only have provided attention to either the higher strength materials or the thickness of the sections of various components of the IRJs. In this thesis a novel method of shape optimisation of the railhead is developed to eliminate the pressure and stress singularities through changes to the original sharp corner shaped railhead into an arc profile in the longitudinal direction. The optimal shape of the longitudinal railhead profile has been determined using three nongradient methods in search of accuracy and efficiency: (1) Grid Search Method; (2) Genetic Algorithm Method and (3) Hybrid Genetic Algorithm Method. All these methods have been coupled with a parametric finite element formulation for the evaluation of the objective function for each iteration or generation depending on the search algorithm employed. The optimal shape derived from these optimisation methods is termed as Stress Minimised Railhead (SMRH) in this thesis. This optimal SMRH design has exhibited significantly reduced stress concentration that remains well below the yield strength of the head hardened rail steels and has shifted the stress concentration location away from the critical zone of the railhead end. The reduction in the magnitude and the relocation of the stress concentration in the SMRH design has been validated through a full scale wheel – railhead interaction test rig; Railhead strains under the loaded wheels have been recorded using a non-contact digital image correlation method. Experimental study has confirmed the accuracy of the numerical predications. Although the SMRH shaped IRJs eliminate stress singularities, they can still fail due to joint bar or bolt hole cracking; therefore, another conceptual design, termed as Embedded IRJ (EIRJ) in this thesis, with no joint bars and pre-tensioned bolts has been developed using a multi-objective optimisation formulation based on the coupled genetic algorithm – parametric finite element method. To achieve the required structural stiffness for the safe passage of the loaded wheels, the rails were embedded into the concrete of the post tensioned sleepers; the optimal solutions for the design of the EIRJ is shown to simplify the design through the elimination of the complex interactions and failure modes of the various structural components of the CIRJ. The practical applicability of the optimal shapes SMRH and EIRJ is demonstrated through two illustrative examples, termed as improved designs (IMD1 & IMD2) in this thesis; IMD1 is a combination of the CIRJ and the SMRH designs, whilst IMD2 is a combination of the EIRJ and SMRH designs. These two improved designs have been simulated for two key operating (speed and wagon load) and design (wheel diameter) parameters that affect the wheel-rail contact; the effect of these parameters has been found to be negligible to the performance of the two improved designs and the improved designs are in turn found far superior to the current designs of the CIRJs in terms of stress singularities and deformation under the passage of the loaded wheels. Therefore, these improved designs are expected to provide longer service life in relation to the CIRJs.