The Future of the Clean Development Mechanism. Note on the report “A Call to Action” of the High-Level Panel on CDM Policy Dialogue. CEPS Special Report No. 71, 20 November 2012

The clean development mechanism (CDM) has been through a long and complex growing process since it was approved as part of the Kyoto Protocol. It was designed within the framework of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, and reflected the political and economic realities of that time. To ensure its continued effectiveness in contributing to future global climate action and to reflect on how best to position the CDM to respond to future challenges, a high-level panel (HLP) was formed at the Durban climate change conference in 2011. Following extensive consultations, the panel published its report in September 2012. Through this Special Report, the CEPS Carbon Market Forum offers its reflections on findings and recommendations of the HLP, as well as, by extension, its own views on the future of the CDM. In the context of the latter, it explores the following questions: Is there a need for an instrument such as the CDM in the future? What ‘demand’ can it fill? In the roles identified under the first question, what can be done to adapt it and also continue to increase its efficacy?

A note on atmospheric predictability

Using the method of Lorenz (1982), we have estimated the predictability of a recent version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model using two different estimates of the initial error corresponding to 6- and 24-hr forecast errors, respectively. For a 6-hr forecast error of the extratropical 500-hPa geopotential height field, a potential increase in forecast skill by more than 3 d is suggested, indicating a further increase in predictability by another 1.5 d compared to the use of a 24-hr forecast error. This is due to a smaller initial error and to an initial error reduction resulting in a smaller averaged growth rate for the whole 7-d forecast. A similar assessment for the tropics using the wind vector fields at 850 and 250 hPa suggests a huge potential improvement with a 7-d forecast providing the same skill as a 1-d forecast now. A contributing factor to the increase in the estimate of predictability is the apparent slow increase of error during the early part of the forecast.

A note on boundary layer friction in baroclinic cyclones

The interaction between extratropical cyclones and the underlying boundary layer has been a topic of recent discussion in papers by Adamson et al (2006) and Beare (2007). Their results emphasise different mechanisms through which the boundary layer dynamics may modify the growth of a baroclinic cyclone. By using different sea-surface temperature distributions and comparing the low-level winds, the differences are exposed and both of the proposed mechanisms appear to be acting within a single simulation.

Cuidando a los muertos: las mujeres medievales en las pampa fúnebres familiares (Taking care to the Dead: the medieval women in the family funeral Pompas )

Previous studies of burial practice in the later medieval period have concluded that mortuary custom was regulated strictly by male religious authorities, resulting in a uniformity of practice that held little potential for the expression of personal identity or family relationships. This paper challenges previous approaches through a close study of the material culture of the medieval grave. Archaeological and pictorial sources combine to suggest that women were responsible for the preparation of the body for burial. This reassessment of medieval burial yields new evidence for female undertaking as an extension of the social role of mothering.