Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Experimental, theoretical and numerical investigation of the nonlinear micromechanical properties of bone

Aging societies suffer from an increasing incidence of bone fractures. Bone strength depends on the amount of mineral measured by clinical densitometry, but also on the micromechanical properties of the bone hierarchical organization. A good understanding has been reached for elastic properties on several length scales, but up to now there is a lack of reliable postyield data on the lower length scales. In order to be able to describe the behavior of bone at the microscale, an anisotropic elastic-viscoplastic damage model was developed using an eccentric generalized Hill criterion and nonlinear isotropic hardening. The model was implemented as a user subroutine in Abaqus and verified using single element tests. A FE simulation of microindentation in lamellar bone was finally performed show-ing that the new constitutive model can capture the main characteristics of the indentation response of bone. As the generalized Hill criterion is limited to elliptical and cylindrical yield surfaces and the correct shape for bone is not known, a new yield surface was developed that takes any convex quadratic shape. The main advantage is that in the case of material identification the shape of the yield surface does not have to be anticipated but a minimization results in the optimal shape among all convex quadrics. The generality of the formulation was demonstrated by showing its degeneration to classical yield surfaces. Also, existing yield criteria for bone at multiple length scales were converted to the quadric formulation. Then, a computational study to determine the influence of yield surface shape and damage on the in-dentation response of bone using spherical and conical tips was performed. The constitutive model was adapted to the quadric criterion and yield surface shape and critical damage were varied. They were shown to have a major impact on the indentation curves. Their influence on indentation modulus, hardness, their ratio as well as the elastic to total work ratio were found to be very well described by multilinear regressions for both tip shapes. For conical tips, indentation depth was not a significant fac-tor, while for spherical tips damage was insignificant. All inverse methods based on microindentation suffer from a lack of uniqueness of the found material properties in the case of nonlinear material behavior. Therefore, monotonic and cyclic micropillar com-pression tests in a scanning electron microscope allowing a straightforward interpretation comple-mented by microindentation and macroscopic uniaxial compression tests were performed on dry ovine bone to identify modulus, yield stress, plastic deformation, damage accumulation and failure mecha-nisms. While the elastic properties were highly consistent, the postyield deformation and failure mech-anisms differed between the two length scales. A majority of the micropillars showed a ductile behavior with strain hardening until failure by localization in a slip plane, while the macroscopic samples failed in a quasi-brittle fashion with microcracks coalescing into macroscopic failure surfaces. In agreement with a proposed rheological model, these experiments illustrate a transition from a ductile mechanical behavior of bone at the microscale to a quasi-brittle response driven by the growth of preexisting cracks along interfaces or in the vicinity of pores at the macroscale. Subsequently, a study was undertaken to quantify the topological variability of indentations in bone and examine its relationship with mechanical properties. Indentations were performed in dry human and ovine bone in axial and transverse directions and their topography measured by AFM. Statistical shape modeling of the residual imprint allowed to define a mean shape and describe the variability with 21 principal components related to imprint depth, surface curvature and roughness. The indentation profile of bone was highly consistent and free of any pile up. A few of the topological parameters, in particular depth, showed significant correlations to variations in mechanical properties, but the cor-relations were not very strong or consistent. We could thus verify that bone is rather homogeneous in its micromechanical properties and that indentation results are not strongly influenced by small de-viations from the ideal case. As the uniaxial properties measured by micropillar compression are in conflict with the current literature on bone indentation, another dissipative mechanism has to be present. The elastic-viscoplastic damage model was therefore extended to viscoelasticity. The viscoelastic properties were identified from macroscopic experiments, while the quasistatic postelastic properties were extracted from micropillar data. It was found that viscoelasticity governed by macroscale properties has very little influence on the indentation curve and results in a clear underestimation of the creep deformation. Adding viscoplasticity leads to increased creep, but hardness is still highly overestimated. It was possible to obtain a reasonable fit with experimental indentation curves for both Berkovich and spherical indenta-tion when abandoning the assumption of shear strength being governed by an isotropy condition. These results remain to be verified by independent tests probing the micromechanical strength prop-erties in tension and shear. In conclusion, in this thesis several tools were developed to describe the complex behavior of bone on the microscale and experiments were performed to identify its material properties. Micropillar com-pression highlighted a size effect in bone due to the presence of preexisting cracks and pores or inter-faces like cement lines. It was possible to get a reasonable fit between experimental indentation curves using different tips and simulations using the constitutive model and uniaxial properties measured by micropillar compression. Additional experimental work is necessary to identify the exact nature of the size effect and the mechanical role of interfaces in bone. Deciphering the micromechanical behavior of lamellar bone and its evolution with age, disease and treatment and its failure mechanisms on several length scales will help preventing fractures in the elderly in the future.

Loop formulation of the supersymmetric nonlinear O(N) sigma model

We derive the fermion loop formulation for the supersymmetric nonlinear O(N) sigma model by performing a hopping expansion using Wilson fermions. In this formulation the fermionic contribution to the partition function becomes a sum over all possible closed non-oriented fermion loop configurations. The interaction between the bosonic and fermionic degrees of freedom is encoded in the constraints arising from the supersymmetry and induces flavour changing fermion loops. For N ≥ 3 this leads to fermion loops which are no longer self-avoiding and hence to a potential sign problem. Since we use Wilson fermions the bare mass needs to be tuned to the chiral point. For N = 2 we determine the critical point and present boson and fermion masses in the critical regime.

Nonlinear behaviour of conduction and block in cardiac tissue with heterogeneous expression of connexin 43

Altered gap junctional coupling potentiates slow conduction and arrhythmias. To better understand how heterogeneous connexin expression affects conduction at the cellular scale, we investigated conduction in tissue consisting of two cardiomyocyte populations expressing different connexin levels. Conduction was mapped using microelectrode arrays in cultured strands of foetal murine ventricular myocytes with prede fi ned contents of connexin 43 knockout (Cx43KO) cells. Corresponding computer simulations were run in randomly generated two-dimensional tissues mimicking the cellular architecture of the strands. In the cultures, the relationship between conduction velocity (CV) and Cx43KO cell content was nonlinear. CV fi rst decreased signi fi cantly when Cx43KO content was increased from 0 to 50%. When the Cx43KO content was ≥ 60%, CV became comparabletothatin100%Cx43KOstrands.Co-culturingCx43KOandwild-typecellsalsoresultedinsigni fi cantly more heterogeneous conduction patterns and in frequent conduction blocks. The simulations replicated this behaviour of conduction. For Cx43KO contents of 10 – 50%, conduction was slowed due to wavefront meandering between Cx43KO cells. For Cx43KO contents ≥ 60%, clusters of remaining wild-type cells acted as electrical loads thatimpairedconduction.ForCx43KOcontentsof40 – 60%,conductionexhibitedfractal characteristics,wasprone to block, and was more sensitive to changes in ion currents compared to homogeneous tissue. In conclusion, conduction velocity and stability behave in a nonline ar manner when cardiomyocytes expressing different connexin amounts are combined. This behaviour results from heterogeneous current-to-load relationships at the cellular level. Such behaviour is likely to be arrhythmogenic in various clinical contexts in which gap junctional coupling is heterogeneous.

Experimental validation of a nonlinear μ FE model based on cohesive-frictional plasticity for trabecular bone

Trabecular bone is a porous mineralized tissue playing a major load bearing role in the human body. Prediction of age-related and disease-related fractures and the behavior of bone implant systems needs a thorough understanding of its structure-mechanical property relationships, which can be obtained using microcomputed tomography-based finite element modeling. In this study, a nonlinear model for trabecular bone as a cohesive-frictional material was implemented in a large-scale computational framework and validated by comparison of μFE simulations with experimental tests in uniaxial tension and compression. A good correspondence of stiffness and yield points between simulations and experiments was found for a wide range of bone volume fraction and degree of anisotropy in both tension and compression using a non-calibrated, average set of material parameters. These results demonstrate the ability of the model to capture the effects leading to failure of bone for three anatomical sites and several donors, which may be used to determine the apparent behavior of trabecular bone and its evolution with age, disease, and treatment in the future.

Nonlinear quasi-static finite element simulations predict in vitro strength of human proximal femora assessed in a dynamic sideways fall setup

Osteoporotic proximal femur fractures are caused by low energy trauma, typically when falling on the hip from standing height. Finite element simulations, widely used to predict the fracture load of femora in fall, usually include neither mass-related inertial effects, nor the viscous part of bone's material behavior. The aim of this study was to elucidate if quasi-static non-linear homogenized finite element analyses can predict in vitro mechanical properties of proximal femora assessed in dynamic drop tower experiments. The case-specific numerical models of thirteen femora predicted the strength (R2=0.84, SEE=540 N, 16.2%), stiffness (R2=0.82, SEE=233 N/mm, 18.0%) and fracture energy (R2=0.72, SEE=3.85 J, 39.6%); and provided fair qualitative matches with the fracture patterns. The influence of material anisotropy was negligible for all predictions. These results suggest that quasi-static homogenized finite element analysis may be used to predict mechanical properties of proximal femora in the dynamic sideways fall situation.

Computational Comparison of Continuous and Discontinuous Galerkin Time-Stepping Methods for Nonlinear Initial Value Problems

This article centers on the computational performance of the continuous and discontinuous Galerkin time stepping schemes for general first-order initial value problems in R n , with continuous nonlinearities. We briefly review a recent existence result for discrete solutions from [6], and provide a numerical comparison of the two time discretization methods.

SOMS: SurrOgate MultiStart algorithm for use with nonlinear programming for global optimization

SOMS is a general surrogate-based multistart algorithm, which is used in combination with any local optimizer to find global optima for computationally expensive functions with multiple local minima. SOMS differs from previous multistart methods in that a surrogate approximation is used by the multistart algorithm to help reduce the number of function evaluations necessary to identify the most promising points from which to start each nonlinear programming local search. SOMS’s numerical results are compared with four well-known methods, namely, Multi-Level Single Linkage (MLSL), MATLAB’s MultiStart, MATLAB’s GlobalSearch, and GLOBAL. In addition, we propose a class of wavy test functions that mimic the wavy nature of objective functions arising in many black-box simulations. Extensive comparisons of algorithms on the wavy testfunctions and on earlier standard global-optimization test functions are done for a total of 19 different test problems. The numerical results indicate that SOMS performs favorably in comparison to alternative methods and does especially well on wavy functions when the number of function evaluations allowed is limited.

Nonlinear tests for genetic studies of complex disease

Linkage and association studies are major analytical tools to search for susceptibility genes for complex diseases. With the availability of large collection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the rapid progresses for high throughput genotyping technologies, together with the ambitious goals of the International HapMap Project, genetic markers covering the whole genome will be available for genome-wide linkage and association studies. In order not to inflate the type I error rate in performing genome-wide linkage and association studies, multiple adjustment for the significant level for each independent linkage and/or association test is required, and this has led to the suggestion of genome-wide significant cut-off as low as 5 × 10 −7. Almost no linkage and/or association study can meet such a stringent threshold by the standard statistical methods. Developing new statistics with high power is urgently needed to tackle this problem. This dissertation proposes and explores a class of novel test statistics that can be used in both population-based and family-based genetic data by employing a completely new strategy, which uses nonlinear transformation of the sample means to construct test statistics for linkage and association studies. Extensive simulation studies are used to illustrate the properties of the nonlinear test statistics. Power calculations are performed using both analytical and empirical methods. Finally, real data sets are analyzed with the nonlinear test statistics. Results show that the nonlinear test statistics have correct type I error rates, and most of the studied nonlinear test statistics have higher power than the standard chi-square test. This dissertation introduces a new idea to design novel test statistics with high power and might open new ways to mapping susceptibility genes for complex diseases. ^

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Analysis of life expectancy using linear and nonlinear models

Life expectancy has consistently increased over the last 150 years due to improvements in nutrition, medicine, and public health. Several studies found that in many developed countries, life expectancy continued to rise following a nearly linear trend, which was contrary to a common belief that the rate of improvement in life expectancy would decelerate and was fit with an S-shaped curve. Using samples of countries that exhibited a wide range of economic development levels, we explored the change in life expectancy over time by employing both nonlinear and linear models. We then observed if there were any significant differences in estimates between linear models, assuming an auto-correlated error structure. When data did not have a sigmoidal shape, nonlinear growth models sometimes failed to provide meaningful parameter estimates. The existence of an inflection point and asymptotes in the growth models made them inflexible with life expectancy data. In linear models, there was no significant difference in the life expectancy growth rate and future estimates between ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS). However, the generalized least squares model was more robust because the data involved time-series variables and residuals were positively correlated. ^

Nonlinear dimension reduction in pathway-based genome-wide association analysis

Pathway based genome wide association study evolves from pathway analysis for microarray gene expression and is under rapid development as a complementary for single-SNP based genome wide association study. However, it faces new challenges, such as the summarization of SNP statistics to pathway statistics. The current study applies the ridge regularized Kernel Sliced Inverse Regression (KSIR) to achieve dimension reduction and compared this method to the other two widely used methods, the minimal-p-value (minP) approach of assigning the best test statistics of all SNPs in each pathway as the statistics of the pathway and the principal component analysis (PCA) method of utilizing PCA to calculate the principal components of each pathway. Comparison of the three methods using simulated datasets consisting of 500 cases, 500 controls and100 SNPs demonstrated that KSIR method outperformed the other two methods in terms of causal pathway ranking and the statistical power. PCA method showed similar performance as the minP method. KSIR method also showed a better performance over the other two methods in analyzing a real dataset, the WTCCC Ulcerative Colitis dataset consisting of 1762 cases, 3773 controls as the discovery cohort and 591 cases, 1639 controls as the replication cohort. Several immune and non-immune pathways relevant to ulcerative colitis were identified by these methods. Results from the current study provided a reference for further methodology development and identified novel pathways that may be of importance to the development of ulcerative colitis.^

New methods for the estimation of Takagi-Sugeno model based extended Kalman filter and its applications to optimal control for nonlinear systems

This paper describes new approaches to improve the local and global approximation (matching) and modeling capability of Takagi–Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy and fast convergence. The main problem encountered is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the application of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last 2 decades in the stability, controller design of fuzzy systems and is popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S identification method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. We propose a noniterative method through weighting of parameters approach and an iterative algorithm by applying the extended Kalman filter, based on the same idea of parameters’ weighting. We show that the Kalman filter is an effective tool in the identification of T-S fuzzy model. A fuzzy controller based linear quadratic regulator is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. An illustrative example of an inverted pendulum is chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity, and generality of the algorithm. An illustrative example is chosen to evaluate the robustness. In this paper, we prove that these algorithms converge very fast, thereby making them very practical to use.